Will Bitcoin Price Continue To Fall In 2019? (Sharing my thoughts)

[aalfadhala]

Hello,

I have just published my idea and analysis on Bitcoin and what's ahead of us in 2019. I mostly cover market cycles and what reversal signs we should be looking for.

Read: https://coinlu.com/will-bitcoin-price-continue-to-fall-in-2019/


Thoughts? 

[1715685843]

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[1715685843]

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[tdrinker]

To conclude and answer the headline question, Bitcoin price will continue to fall as long as it does not show us major reversal

Seems like a pretty obvious conclusion you've come to but I do agree with a lot of the analysis. I think we'll get stuck in a sideways movement for a long period before we see any significant signs of reversal. That could be in this range or after further falls, but a recovery at this moment in time seems to me unlikely.

[semobo]

Hello,

I have just published my idea and analysis on Bitcoin and what's ahead of us in 2019. I mostly cover market cycles and what reversal signs we should be looking for.

Read: https://coinlu.com/will-bitcoin-price-continue-to-fall-in-2019/


Thoughts? 

I don't think the prices will fall more in this cycle anymore since we already reach bottom of $3000 in recent times but at this level strong resistance for bitcoin prices which means there are enough people who are ready to hold their bitcoins at this level too.

[Bitcoinwaist]

most are thinking/saying the price will go lower to under $3k then sideways for a year then bull run into the halving. i am a contrarian, and I think we go on a bull run next year. everyone is waiting for a capitulation bottom but we might have had it at $31xx.

ask yourself this: right now at $3850 would you fomo if we went up to $5k in one day?

[greeklogos]

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result 

[aalfadhala]

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result 

Lol thanks for your reply - but this was never my conclusion, or at least the conclusion I wanted to deliver to readers. What I was trying to say is that the market will not recover until we see an accumulation phase. A phase that should take at least 3 months to develop

[Instantode]

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result 

I think with the increased user base, the price will rise gradually.

[exstasie]

To conclude and answer the headline question, Bitcoin price will continue to fall as long as it does not show us major reversal

Seems like a pretty obvious conclusion you've come to but I do agree with a lot of the analysis.

If it's obvious to you, you're ahead of the curve. In bear markets, a lot of people indiscriminately "buy the dip" a few times and get burned before learning anything about price trends and market cycles. It's something you see in trader chat groups too. Lots of traders try to call bottoms over and over and they bleed away their capital by "catching the falling knife" instead of patiently waiting for an obvious reversal.

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result 

Lol thanks for your reply - but this was never my conclusion, or at least the conclusion I wanted to deliver to readers. What I was trying to say is that the market will not recover until we see an accumulation phase. A phase that should take at least 3 months to develop

Yep, in fact I think it'll take longer than that, maybe 6-9 months.

[Kemarit]

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result 

Lol thanks for your reply - but this was never my conclusion, or at least the conclusion I wanted to deliver to readers. What I was trying to say is that the market will not recover until we see an accumulation phase. A phase that should take at least 3 months to develop

Exactly, although I believed that the accumulation phase has started already, however, I also think that we haven't reached the bottom so there's a lot of time for us to slowly steady the market and slowly accumulate as we go along. I'm thinking that accumulation will tend to go more than 3 months. It can even go as long as a year. The lesson here is that crypto investment is a long journey, and if you can't wait long enough for the market to recover then this market is not for you, or at least not for everyone.

[coinplus]

I have just published my idea and analysis on Bitcoin and what's ahead of us in 2019. I mostly cover market cycles and what reversal signs we should be looking for.

I am also believing in to the cyclic nature of markets. If we are going to repeat what we have experienced it in the recent-past by the times of 2015 and 2016. If you look into bitcoin markets by those years, you can find that at most of the times, market was trading sideways and slowly recovering from the downfall with had happened in 2014. As per my several days of analysis, I have concluded that market will not continue its fall down in 2019.

Lots of traders try to call bottoms over and over and they bleed away their capital by "catching the falling knife" instead of patiently waiting for an obvious reversal.

Who knows ? We might be going to see that again and again in 2019 also. But, buying at every dips must be a good strategy of trading so that you will never miss out an exact bottom. But, you will be enforced to wait more. When your capital allows, why not you just go for assuming every dip as a bottom ?

[adaseb]

It depends.

If it breaks the $3000 support and keeps heading lower then it might create more panic and cause another bearish year.

However I am thinking we will trade sideways for a bit and maybe slowly start ascending back up. However the $5800-$6000 is going to be major resistance to break-thru.

[aalfadhala]

It depends.

If it breaks the $3000 support and keeps heading lower then it might create more panic and cause another bearish year.

However I am thinking we will trade sideways for a bit and maybe slowly start ascending back up. However the $5800-$6000 is going to be major resistance to break-thru.

I totally agree with you - $5800-6000 will be a rough area to break out from.
This resistance (which was once a strong support zone) was used to distribute so many of the whale's bitcoin bag.

[gentlemand]

I think our falling is not concluded yet.

I was sceptical of those bubble psychology charts that were rolled out relentlessly in the past but they turned out to adhere closely to the previous bubble and this one is following a similar trajectory. There's still too much hope, though that may seem hard to believe in certain quarters.

We're not in the boring dead phase which is when you know it's fully played itself out. Every move is still followed too closely for signs of recovery. That needs flushing out.

I don't care what price it bottoms at. I just want a bottom.

[BitHodler]

If it breaks the $3000 support and keeps heading lower then it might create more panic and cause another bearish year.

That's exactly how I see it. It will be similar to what happened when we broke the $6000 mark, and I'm sure that this will be the last push the last couple of bag holders and ICOs need to unload their stashes.

I'm however facing the same thoughts about the market as we had before we broke $6000. People were overly bullish and the market did the opposite. People right now seem overly bearish, which also may lead to an opposite move.

Markets in general don't follow the logic of the mass, and there is enough incentive for market movers to hedge that mass. I'm glad that I don't actively trade the market but just average my way in. No tough decisions to be made.

[figmentofmyass]

If it breaks the $3000 support and keeps heading lower then it might create more panic and cause another bearish year.

That's exactly how I see it. It will be similar to what happened when we broke the $6000 mark, and I'm sure that this will be the last push the last couple of bag holders and ICOs need to unload their stashes.

there's very different supply/demand dynamics at $3000 vs $6000 though. we spent 9 months repeatedly holding $6000 as the bottom of a trading range. after it finally broke, we had nearly a year's worth of buyers instantly go underwater (turning them into sellers). and anyone left holding from 5-figures had reason to finally lose hope and capitulate. we don't have that sort of dynamic at $3000---not unless we go long term sideways again and then begin a new crash.

we also have long term moving average support near $3k---the monthly 50ma and weekly 200ma. that wasn't true at the $6000 level.

after an 84% drop, i'm increasingly weary of expecting lower and lower prices. we're entering the stage where bears get over-confident IMO.

[b3j0]

I am very confident that if market conditions in 2019 can recover and be more stable, at the end of 2018 the price of bitcoin only reach $ 3700 and failed to penetrate $ 5k at yesterday's pump.

[Biodom]

If bitcoin goes down below $2800 for more than a very short time, it would mean that it declined more than during the previous "bubble".
This would basically make bitcoin uninvestable as far as assets go.
Who would want to invest long in something where there is no serious "bottom" value that you could rely upon?

I am very much pro-bitcoin, but I would have to reconsider my understanding of btc value from that point on.

[gentlemand]

If bitcoin goes down below $2800 for more than a very short time, it would mean that it declined more than during the previous "bubble".
This would basically make bitcoin uninvestable as far as assets go.
Who would want to invest long in something where there is no serious "bottom" value that you could rely upon?

I am very much pro-bitcoin, but I would have to reconsider my understanding of btc value from that point on.

That feels like a really weird attitude to me.

Bitcoin don't give a shit who invests in it. No one can rely on anything in terms of its value or behaviour.

Anyone who goes into it expecting their expectations to be fulfilled may well wind up having a bad time. Prepare accordingly. There are too many weirdnesses, unknowables and the emotions of people coming and going to be able to count on anything.

[Biodom]

If bitcoin goes down below $2800 for more than a very short time, it would mean that it declined more than during the previous "bubble".
This would basically make bitcoin uninvestable as far as assets go.
Who would want to invest long in something where there is no serious "bottom" value that you could rely upon?

I am very much pro-bitcoin, but I would have to reconsider my understanding of btc value from that point on.

That feels like a really weird attitude to me.

Bitcoin don't give a shit who invests in it. No one can rely on anything in terms of its value or behaviour.

Anyone who goes into it expecting their expectations to be fulfilled may well wind up having a bad time. Prepare accordingly. There are too many weirdnesses, unknowables and the emotions of people coming and going to be able to count on anything.

The point is that it would become uninvestable asset for many.
Would I still hold?
Probably, but the argument that btc decreases volatility as it matures would be lost then and there.

[gentlemand]

The point is that it would become uninvestable asset for many.
Would I still hold?
Probably, but the argument that btc decreases volatility as it matures would be lost then and there.

I think we're still a long, long way from attracting a large number of people with an investment/hedging mindset. Most are still gamblers. Many will be crucified along the way. They won't be remembered in the long run.