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Author Topic: NBA 2023-2024 betting  (Read 116269 times)
Maslate
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June 05, 2023, 04:30:59 PM
 #13541

I was glad to win my bet for the evening, which was the Miami Heat + 10.5. I was a bit surprised that the Heat actually won. It was clear they were trying some new things out on offense and it worked out for them to get them the win and even up the series as they head back to Miami. Definitely makes things more interesting.

Strus, who was scoreless in game 1, stepped up and scored 14 points in this game. It was his 3-point shooting in the 1st quarter that gave the Heat the energy they needed to win the game. Gabe Vincent was also exceptional, contributing 23 points. Maybe in the next game, Martin will wake up and have an MVP-worthy performance. Imagine if all three of them have decent performances.

In game 3, the Heat are slight favorites, and I think they'll be ahead in the series after game 3.

Let's see about that but I do think there is a good chance because they are now approaching towards Miami for the games 3 and 4.

I'm a Heat fan but I cannot just disregard the Nuggets for being exceptional and unpredictable in the playoffs too as they also had a good run before they arrived in the Finals, just like what the Heat did. I surely hope that the Heat can somehow duplicate the performance they did last night where they overcame the Nuggets, finally.

R


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June 05, 2023, 04:42:59 PM
 #13542

I was favouring Nuggets for this game honestly. I thought a scenario like this:

- Nuggets make the series 2-0 first.
- Then Heat make it 2-2.
- After that we would see a 3-2 and 3-3.
- At the end we would see Nuggets winning the series by 4-3 and winning their first ever championship also.

But Heat surprised me by winning Game 2 by only a 3-point gap. There wasn't actually a very impressive individual performance at Heat side. But there was when it comes to Nuggets. Jokic really did his best - 41 pts, 11 reb. This guy definitely deserves a championship because of his high effort throughout the season so far.

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June 05, 2023, 05:05:30 PM
 #13543

Knowing Erik Spoistra, one would expect Miami to play much better in the second game, but I must admit that the result of the game is a big surprise for me. Another thing is that Joker could not count on the support of partners in this match as in the first match, hence he focused more on scoring points than assisting his colleagues. Miami's close to 50% 3pt field goals is unlikely to happen again in these Finals either.

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JooBra
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June 05, 2023, 05:06:51 PM
 #13544

I was favouring Nuggets for this game honestly. I thought a scenario like this:

- Nuggets make the series 2-0 first.
- Then Heat make it 2-2.
- After that we would see a 3-2 and 3-3.
- At the end we would see Nuggets winning the series by 4-3 and winning their first ever championship also.

But Heat surprised me by winning Game 2 by only a 3-point gap. There wasn't actually a very impressive individual performance at Heat side. But there was when it comes to Nuggets. Jokic really did his best - 41 pts, 11 reb. This guy definitely deserves a championship because of his high effort throughout the season so far.
It was a bad night for the Nuggets. I think they will bounce and win next game, they can't have 2 bad nights in a row. Jokic needs assist for one more guy and they will win it.
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June 05, 2023, 06:37:07 PM
 #13545

I was favouring Nuggets for this game honestly. I thought a scenario like this:

- Nuggets make the series 2-0 first.
- Then Heat make it 2-2.
- After that we would see a 3-2 and 3-3.
- At the end we would see Nuggets winning the series by 4-3 and winning their first ever championship also.

But Heat surprised me by winning Game 2 by only a 3-point gap. There wasn't actually a very impressive individual performance at Heat side. But there was when it comes to Nuggets. Jokic really did his best - 41 pts, 11 reb. This guy definitely deserves a championship because of his high effort throughout the season so far.

But we both know that having that kind of stats is certainly not enough to keep the team afloat or even win a chip at the end of this series, after all, it should be a team effort and that will be a very big factor for a team to win. The Miami Heat might not have that kind of stats or did have an impressive performance individually but they did played the game as a team and that was the reason why they overcome the Nuggets lead and tied the series.

Always expect the unexpected especially in this kind of scenario where both teams are underrated and highly unpredictable. They shouldn't be here playing in the Finals if they are not that good.

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June 05, 2023, 08:24:36 PM
 #13546

Well now I don't know which way to go for game 3.  Literally zero clue or feeling of what will happen.  I think I'm just going to bow out and enjoy the rest of the series.  Might throw some on jokic props because no one can stop that dude.  Crazy game.

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June 06, 2023, 12:12:22 AM
 #13547

I was favouring Nuggets for this game honestly. I thought a scenario like this:

- Nuggets make the series 2-0 first.
- Then Heat make it 2-2.
- After that we would see a 3-2 and 3-3.
- At the end we would see Nuggets winning the series by 4-3 and winning their first ever championship also.

But Heat surprised me by winning Game 2 by only a 3-point gap. There wasn't actually a very impressive individual performance at Heat side. But there was when it comes to Nuggets. Jokic really did his best - 41 pts, 11 reb. This guy definitely deserves a championship because of his high effort throughout the season so far.
It was a bad night for the Nuggets. I think they will bounce and win next game, they can't have 2 bad nights in a row. Jokic needs assist for one more guy and they will win it.

I agree with you. They don't lose two games in a row.
Jokic will definitely do something, he brought the team here and he will win for the championship.

The only problem with the Denver Nuggets is last quarter, they are not scoring in the last quarter.

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June 06, 2023, 02:38:20 AM
 #13548

Well now I don't know which way to go for game 3.  Literally zero clue or feeling of what will happen.  I think I'm just going to bow out and enjoy the rest of the series.  Might throw some on jokic props because no one can stop that dude.  Crazy game.

I didn't expect Denver Nuggets to still be the bookies favorites for game 3, but as things currently stands, they're the favorites as per the bookies, I'll expect multiple rotations and changes to both rosters, so I really can't also pick a side too, as the game 2 went both ways and both teams had significant lead they could both bank on to win the game, so I would agree your assertion of not being able to pick one side, as for I'd just stick to my player props and settle for perhaps medium lines with decent chances according to my risk analysis and enjoy the game.


However, I would still give the Nuggets the edge here if I were to pick a side because they've a better performing bench players compared to the Miami Heat, aside from the veteran maestro Kyle Lowry who heavily impact these games despite is high minutes restriction.

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June 06, 2023, 01:04:41 PM
 #13549

Well now I don't know which way to go for game 3.  Literally zero clue or feeling of what will happen.  I think I'm just going to bow out and enjoy the rest of the series.  Might throw some on jokic props because no one can stop that dude.  Crazy game.

I didn't expect Denver Nuggets to still be the bookies favorites for game 3, but as things currently stands, they're the favorites as per the bookies, I'll expect multiple rotations and changes to both rosters, so I really can't also pick a side too, as the game 2 went both ways and both teams had significant lead they could both bank on to win the game, so I would agree your assertion of not being able to pick one side, as for I'd just stick to my player props and settle for perhaps medium lines with decent chances according to my risk analysis and enjoy the game.


However, I would still give the Nuggets the edge here if I were to pick a side because they've a better performing bench players compared to the Miami Heat, aside from the veteran maestro Kyle Lowry who heavily impact these games despite is high minutes restriction.

The Nuggets have the edge, but I like the Heat's chances in their first home game in the NBA Finals. If the Nuggets were able to make their fans happy in game 1, I'm confident the Heat will do the same in their first game. This series has become a game of adjustments. Expect Kevin Love to still have plenty of minutes on the floor if the Nuggets fail to make an adjustment. Now, the Nuggets cannot bully inside as Kevin Love is there to stop Gordon from doing so.

As of now, there have been no changes to the spread. It's still +2.5 for the Heat, which I believe is worth taking a shot.
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June 06, 2023, 01:37:52 PM
 #13550

As of now, there have been no changes to the spread. It's still +2.5 for the Heat, which I believe is worth taking a shot.

Expect no changes to that spread, even if the Heat announce that Herro will be coming back in game 3. The Heat now have the momentum, and they believe they can win games whether on the road or at home, so it's not new to them. Right now, Miami is more battle-tested as they were able to win in game 7 after losing three consecutive games. I hope the Nuggets will not be too emotional after losing game 2 and will instead focus on getting the job done, which is to win.

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June 06, 2023, 02:39:17 PM
 #13551

Okay, the spreads changed, thankfully.
Miami Heat versus Denver Nuggets‍ - Denver Nuggets (-3.5)
Although the negative handicap is still for the Nuggets, I like to see it this low even though the Nuggets will win again. -8.5 - -10.5 is just too much. This is the Finals and the Miami Heat should not be underestimated.

Tyler Herro injury updates.
Quote
If there is pain and swelling, can the Heat put him out there? This is the Finals, but this is also a 23-year-old under a long contract, and if there is a heightened risk of further injury Miami may need to protect the player from himself.
https://sports.yahoo.com/herro-finals-debut-heat-game-133755980.html
Not yet as for now but there is one more day remaining and it might change. If the paint and swelling comes out, they might let him play for restricted minutes.
Don't want to get my hopes too high. I will take the Nuggets as early as possible before it changes again with Tyler Herro being announced to play or not.
Sometimes early betting has its perks and I do believe I had the chance to take advantage of that on some games.
Nikola Jokic's face after the lost in Denver is something to remember, the look of someone who will come back stronger in any homecourt he will play.
Expecting him to be aggressive and probably let his teammates do some damage using him as the center of the play.

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June 06, 2023, 02:45:46 PM
 #13552

Speaking of Tyler Herro, I don't think the Heat would risk playing him if he is not 100% healthy. They are not desperate because they have already evened the series by winning one game on the road. They have the advantage to delay Herro's return in order to ensure he is fully conditioned and to avoid risking his future if he were to get injured again. Additionally, Herro may not have had much practice with the team, so there's a chance he might underperform and potentially cost the Heat a game. Considering these factors, I'm fine with not seeing him come back in the game.

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June 06, 2023, 03:13:32 PM
 #13553

Speaking of Tyler Herro, I don't think the Heat would risk playing him if he is not 100% healthy. They are not desperate because they have already evened the series by winning one game on the road. They have the advantage to delay Herro's return in order to ensure he is fully conditioned and to avoid risking his future if he were to get injured again. Additionally, Herro may not have had much practice with the team, so there's a chance he might underperform and potentially cost the Heat a game. Considering these factors, I'm fine with not seeing him come back in the game.

Herro already came out and said he didn’t think it would be a good idea to try and join the team now because it could very likely mess up their chemistry. He doesn’t want to cost himself that ring. With the Heat winning a game on the road against the Nuggets, betting on them just became a whole lot more interesting though.

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June 06, 2023, 03:26:51 PM
 #13554

With the Heat winning a game on the road against the Nuggets, betting on them just became a whole lot more interesting though.

That's obviously the right thing to do. The doubt regarding Miami's capability to beat Denver is now gone due to their win in game 2. Therefore, it is highly likely that this series will be similar to the ones against the Bucks or the Celtics, where the Heat would likely come up as the winner.

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June 06, 2023, 03:28:05 PM
 #13555

Speaking of Tyler Herro, I don't think the Heat would risk playing him if he is not 100% healthy. They are not desperate because they have already evened the series by winning one game on the road. They have the advantage to delay Herro's return in order to ensure he is fully conditioned and to avoid risking his future if he were to get injured again. Additionally, Herro may not have had much practice with the team, so there's a chance he might underperform and potentially cost the Heat a game. Considering these factors, I'm fine with not seeing him come back in the game.
For sure next game will be a best game for Miami heat as we all know that they are good now they defeated the nuggets in game two which is very good and now they are preparing for the game three which is if they can manage to win they have a chance to have the advantages and like what you said thier teammates Herro has still have his time to rest it because of his injury, because once they force to play then there's a chance that he can not donate his best in the game .

R


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June 07, 2023, 10:25:54 AM
 #13556

I have skip game 2 betting on the Heat, damn, I missed those great odds. I'm thinking that I will be betting on them in game 3 since it will be in their homecourt.

So with that I will go all the way with them at ML, 2.2x is already attractive for me. I think the Heat will try to go for the lead here, it's their homecourt so they are in a advantage. And perhaps they will not admit it, but they know that getting the lead at 2-1, they will have all the momentum now in this finals.

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June 07, 2023, 11:09:44 AM
 #13557

I have skip game 2 betting on the Heat, damn, I missed those great odds. I'm thinking that I will be betting on them in game 3 since it will be in their homecourt.

So with that I will go all the way with them at ML, 2.2x is already attractive for me. I think the Heat will try to go for the lead here, it's their homecourt so they are in a advantage. And perhaps they will not admit it, but they know that getting the lead at 2-1, they will have all the momentum now in this finals.

They both need this win, and the Heat have the momentum. Based on their performance in the previous rounds, I believe they haven't lost a Game 3 or the first game on their home court. Following trends can be a good betting strategy to start with. So I support your decision, let's go with the Heat, the underdog throughout this series.

R


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June 07, 2023, 12:24:38 PM
 #13558

What about the total? If the Heat are able to find a way to shoot, then I guess it will be an offensive game. At least the Heat will score 100+ points, and there's a chance that the Nuggets will also score, resulting in the over 214 being hit.

The current total was opened at 216 but is now down to 214. It's possible that people were thinking this game would go under. Well, they have a point if that's what they really thought because both teams would certainly aim to be ahead in this game, making it a more physical game.

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June 07, 2023, 12:42:54 PM
 #13559

Speaking of Tyler Herro, I don't think the Heat would risk playing him if he is not 100% healthy. They are not desperate because they have already evened the series by winning one game on the road. They have the advantage to delay Herro's return in order to ensure he is fully conditioned and to avoid risking his future if he were to get injured again. Additionally, Herro may not have had much practice with the team, so there's a chance he might underperform and potentially cost the Heat a game. Considering these factors, I'm fine with not seeing him come back in the game.

Herro already came out and said he didn’t think it would be a good idea to try and join the team now because it could very likely mess up their chemistry. He doesn’t want to cost himself that ring. With the Heat winning a game on the road against the Nuggets, betting on them just became a whole lot more interesting though.
That's better and I agree with what he said. He ain't fully recovered and it is true that it might mess up their chemistry and plays without him. They already won a game, all Herro needs to do is trust his team mates and try to feel his wrist if it's healed entirely.
I know Coach Spo likes taking risks but this is a matter of the career of that young kid. If he can't play, don't force it, focus on what's in front of him and it's actually working.

I want to see how the Denver Nuggets will adjust. The first lost at their home must have affected them and their confidence and now it's how they can recover from that and better it will be in a competitive environment at the Miami homecourt.
I expect Jokic to be a monster again. Adjustments will surely happen, Murray might get more aggressive, and they might go back at using Gordon under the rim to score some easy deuce.

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June 07, 2023, 12:55:27 PM
 #13560


I want to see how the Denver Nuggets will adjust. The first lost at their home must have affected them and their confidence and now it's how they can recover from that and better it will be in a competitive environment at the Miami homecourt.
I expect Jokic to be a monster again. Adjustments will surely happen, Murray might get more aggressive, and they might go back at using Gordon under the rim to score some easy deuce.

It is certain that they will make significant adjustments after the disappointing loss in game 2. Let's see what they will do to counter the strategy of the Heat, which has made Jokic more of a scorer than a passer. According to the statistics, the Nuggets have more losses in games where Jokic scores 40+ points.

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