Bitcoin, 2019 and next halving

[leavolnhals]

Hi folks,
I literally forgot where I saw this picture and who posted it (but thanks anyway to the poster who shared this):





I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

I think your point of view is correct. simply because the world's economy has yet to show signs of recovery, Apple has just dropped its stock price and investors still have bloodbath.
recovery doesn't happen too soon as we think. It will take a lot of time and 2020 will be an exciting year.

[figmentofmyass]

the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.

one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.

Simplistic? But you can't deny how really simple those long term patterns are.

From a newbie's perspective. If the next curve up, more or less, follows where the price in the chart is going, would only be then that they accept it as, more or less, accurate? I believe it would be riskier not to take their opportunity to buy now.

don't get me wrong---i think it's a good theory and there's moderate evidence for it. there's just two problems. for one thing, we're only looking at a limited period. with another decade or two of data, the path may look completely different. if bitcoin adoption follows the curve of internet or smart phone adoption, logarithmic growth projections probably aren't fast enough to account for it.

the other thing is it involves curve-fitting. on a longer time line, the logarithmic regression channel bounds won't look like they do today. if the theory is accurate though, it'll still look more or less accurate like you say.

[Adriano2010]

Maybe this graphics is close to reality, but in my opinion i think that the bitcoin price this year will be higher than 15,000$ and we can have a nice profit if the bitcoin was bought now or for long holders. Anyway i still hold what i have for a better market.

[Biscutard]

Maybe this graphics is close to reality, but in my opinion i think that the bitcoin price this year will be higher than 15,000$ and we can have a nice profit if the bitcoin was bought now or for long holders. Anyway i still hold what i have for a better market.

It is just an speculated price for the upcoming year but it doesn't really give the exact result of the market. We all know that the market is beyond unpredictable and people still doing some prediction shit like bitcoin would gradually rise up to $100k but it turns out that it goes the other way.

[eaglewhite80]

Longterm bullish but the trend for a bull market is still in and isnt showing any signs of ending in the near future.

All i cant take from the graph is we will be dancing around $3k - $4k most of 2019 and can expect a bull run from sometime 2020 onwards.

Usually the pattern of the long term consolidation that comes with the market after a huge bear market. The whole of 2018 was all bearish with some little bit of upward rallies in between, let's see how the whole halving would come to be and in that case, it looks like there would be nothing much to expect until towards the end of 2019 or even 2020 as the case may be. This would be a whole lot long boring moment for bitcoin, but usually in cases like that, I guess this is where we might be seeing some bullishness for altcoins anyway so there could still be some little action in the other assets hopefully.

[Wind_FURY]

the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.

one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.

Simplistic? But you can't deny how really simple those long term patterns are.

From a newbie's perspective. If the next curve up, more or less, follows where the price in the chart is going, would only be then that they accept it as, more or less, accurate? I believe it would be riskier not to take their opportunity to buy now.

don't get me wrong---i think it's a good theory and there's moderate evidence for it. there's just two problems. for one thing, we're only looking at a limited period. with another decade or two of data, the path may look completely different. if bitcoin adoption follows the curve of internet or smart phone adoption, logarithmic growth projections probably aren't fast enough to account for it.

But I believe 10 years of data, 3 major bubbles, and 2 halvings might be enough to make a fairly accurate prediction of the future.

the other thing is it involves curve-fitting. on a longer time line, the logarithmic regression channel bounds won't look like they do today. if the theory is accurate though, it'll still look more or less accurate like you say.

Although we do agree that, despite inaccuracies, Bitcoin will reach 6 digits, right?

[Desscount]

I don't have much knowledge about long analysis. but the image pattern shows the forecast for 2020. I think there are many predictions and results no one can ever know for sure.
I believe in the middle of this year if there are no more rumors, the market will stabilize again.

[denny27]

In my personal opinion, I don't really believe with just chart predictions, there are still many things out there that can bring it/influence it wherever it goes. We are easy to predict but the reality is sometimes often difficult to predict with certainty, which clearly seems to me this year could be a good development from a drastic decline

[pabpete]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.

I don't see how any of those things are possible with the current inability to scale.

The examples were wrong, I'm sorry. My point is that one big event can completely change the future of Bitcoin price. It does not necessarily have to be a positive event, it can be negative, or completely neutral, such as the invention of a new, better technology than blockchain. Also enough will be just to improve Blockchain (fork), in such a way that it will bypass Bitcoin and create Bitcoin II, which will take over. This is enough, for long-term predictions, to not work. My opinin is that technical analysis on cryptocurrencies, works only in the short-term.

[ranman09]

Well if you put a basic technical analysis, a trend line, there near 2019 it would most probably be close to it. And based on that curve drawing it most likely will break that trend line of support.

But its the market no one knows what will happen when it hits that support line. It might be a base who knows.

[Caladonian]

In my personal opinion, I don't really believe with just chart predictions, there are still many things out there that can bring it/influence it wherever it goes. We are easy to predict but the reality is sometimes often difficult to predict with certainty, which clearly seems to me this year could be a good development from a drastic decline

Most of the time reality hurts, the anticipation that we had mostly failed as the directions can be played by the big bag holders, what we wanted to go can be change by whales who invested a lots to make sure that they have the majority, so each time they move the momentum will easily be change, though it's good to have a good looks and have a goal finding success this coming year but always have a sets of plans and good alternative.

[jademaxsuy]

I just do not understand the graph probably there were lack of data in presented in the axis of the graph. Anyway, it seems that this is happening and the best thing is that a market price for crypto could be predicted but not 100% it will be just a high chances that it will come to that point. I just want to ask if crypto in 2019 would be good? How about the ETF would it affect crypto market if it will not be approve?

[Febo]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

LOL yes Bitcoin is not solely reliable on itself. If we will see a huge financial crysis this or next year then Bitcoin Bull market will get delayed. But it cant be for long.

[Artemis3]

Though past results do not necessarily repeat themselves, that graph looks like a probable prediction. In my opinion anyway. Different events might delay or accelerate those patterns, but they look spot on to me. Only time can tell...