Bitcoin Forum
January 22, 2018, 02:54:28 PM *
News: Electrum users must upgrade to 3.0.5 if they haven't already. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis  (Read 8010 times)
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
March 30, 2014, 09:27:35 PM
 #41

I see a spring that is coiling.


 Grin

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
1516632868
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1516632868

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1516632868
Reply with quote  #2

1516632868
Report to moderator
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
March 30, 2014, 09:37:52 PM
 #42

I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 12:36:55 AM
 #43

This week's issue was just sent out to the following users:

oda.krell
docile
John999
kramerc
iron77
kwest
jlin
CoinBurner
Aquatic
Blue
Ultros
Roger_Murdock
rushthatspeaks
castle
damdam

enjoy, and happy trading!

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 01:16:50 AM
 #44

Just sent you payment for 4 subscriptions, including this last one preferably. Please confirm.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:52:56 AM
 #45

Just sent you payment for 4 subscriptions, including this last one preferably. Please confirm.

thanks for your support Smiley i just sent you a PM.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 08:06:48 AM
 #46

I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

The volume was there on the way to 440ish, not sure if your triangle will break down.  The bids started coming in...
We'd need more 100+ sells into the bid to break the 440.  Looks like a bottom is in.  Temporary or not, not sure.
Small positive divergences as well.

we just witnessed an impressive upwards breakout in the last 2 hours. good catch on the small bullish divergences in the indicators, i was keeping an eye on these as well. however, the 1-hour candle just closed in a high-volume "doji" on Huobi, and a high-volume "shooting star" on Bitstamp; both of these are signs of reversal. the model you quoted can still come to pass if a subsequent correction downwards takes us under the $455 starting point of this push. the upwards breakout was a little larger than expected, but i think it was a significant short squeeze which added some volume to a movement up through a thin orderbook.

---
4-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/0hbbNkP.png

---

on the 4-hour scale, we can see two short-term resistances here. one was the upper bound for the consolidation pattern, triggering the upwards movement once the price broke above. the other stalled the rally. the model is still intact, as long as we see a full retrace of this movement.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414



View Profile
April 01, 2014, 09:02:10 PM
 #47

Glad to see you made use of the ADX/DMI indicator in your latest newsletter. It's one of my favorites, because it is one of the few mid/long-term indicators that yield a very clear, almost binary signal. Unfortunately "clear" does not necessarily mean "reliable" however, and how reliable mid/long term signals can be is another matter, one which I shall rant on about in my...


Unexpected methodological interlude (you tend to have those yourself, arepo, so you can't complain :D)

The problem with TA indicators when applied to Bitcoin price is always the relative sparsity of data, because we can only look at 2-3 years of data. This problem becomes worse when looking at mid/long term signals, like the weekly ADX signal you presented (because it means we see a lower total number of patterns). If TA is supposed to be different from voodoo (a regular accusation on the wall thread :D), it needs to have an empirical foundation -- that foundation can reasonably only be in the form of frequencies of observation, and resulting estimations of conditional probabilities: out of m patterns observed in total, we have seen pattern X n times, and it is followed by price decline i times, etc, therefore we assume that, given the observation of pattern X, the likelihood of price decline is... etc.

In principle, this is sound methodology. The problem with slow moving indicators is that we have only seen the patterns we speak about 3, 4, maybe 5 times. In the absence of other methods, it is still our best bet to see how those patterns resolved those 3,4,5 times, and trade accordingly, but if we are honest with ourselves, we need to keep in mind that with such low numbers, our predictions don't have much statistical power. This can be slightly ameliorated by seeing how the same indicator performs and behaves in other assets (stocks, currencies), but the problem isn't really solved by that: because Bitcoin is so new, we don't really know for sure which other class of assets is the closest analogue, so conclusions drawn from another asset suffer from the same problem of uncertainty we faced before.

/methodological interlude


Let me add one or two remarks to the ADX analysis you made in the newsletter: you chose a weekly time resolution, which illustrates quite nicely your point on page 13 about the parallel increase of ADX and -DI. In my opinion this point becomes even clearer in a different time resolution however... in my (limited) experience, weekly resolution often tends to paint with too broad a stroke, while daily is often too "jittery", so I noticed that I often get the best results with a compromise: 2d or 3d resolutions:



And here it becomes crystal clear that we currently see something that was absent during the "bubble" of 2013 and the "mini bubble" of 2012: a second downtrend period (-di above +di) following the initial correction after the peak. And, as you pointed out already, this downtrend and rising -di is also coinciding with a rising ADX. So I can't really say I understand the optimism of those who seem to think it will be "business as usual", by which they mean "same deal as 2012 and 2013"... there is an important difference visible on the charts (and in fact, many others as well), and right now, I consider a continued bear market more likely than a trend reversal.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


View Profile
April 02, 2014, 02:49:55 AM
 #48

Arepo,

One thing I am not sure how TA can address is off-exchange transactions.

What I mean by this is that you provided a lot of great info in your newsletter about historical money flow.

However, if we were to make the assumption that larger buyers and institutional buyers are making a historically high amount of bitcoin purchases off exchange, how would we account for this in money flow?

It seems theoretically that lack of money flow could be offset by lack of bitcoin available on exchanges.

I guess we would have to measure historical ask sums to try to get a read on this?

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 02, 2014, 08:33:44 PM
 #49

Arepo,

One thing I am not sure how TA can address is off-exchange transactions.

What I mean by this is that you provided a lot of great info in your newsletter about historical money flow.

However, if we were to make the assumption that larger buyers and institutional buyers are making a historically high amount of bitcoin purchases off exchange, how would we account for this in money flow?

It seems theoretically that lack of money flow could be offset by lack of bitcoin available on exchanges.

I guess we would have to measure historical ask sums to try to get a read on this?

this is a great point. off-exchange capital inflow would definitely be absent from indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow which was the focus of that argument in the newsletter.

putting aside whether or not it is true that institutional buyers are making historically high amounts of purchases, how would be the best way to verify this?

while the CMF may not respond clearly to such "hidden" buying pressure, other data certainly would. your suggestion of looking at historical ask sums i think is the most obvious and straightforward way. these large buys would not show up as volume on the exchanges, but they would certainly affect the available supply.

also, while the CMF may not directly account for this buying pressure, many of the indicators i rely on are well-calibrated to a whole range of market environments. for instance, the CMF, like many other indicators, is a range-volume transform. The thin ask side that results from this choked supply would yield larger price gains with equivalent volume during bull markets, which would multiply the height of positive divergences and may help maintain the faithfulness of the signals in the indicator data.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
April 02, 2014, 09:44:39 PM
 #50

I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

The spring I am referencing is much longer term than the charts you are looking at here.

Remember the last coil in July 2013? I believe it is happening again. Just a matter of time.

Let the weak hands sell then we can move up.

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470


View Profile
April 02, 2014, 09:52:47 PM
 #51

I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

The spring I am referencing is much longer term than the charts you are looking at here.

Remember the last coil in July 2013? I believe it is happening again. Just a matter of time.

Let the weak hands sell then we can move up.

I'm not so sure anymore. I think we might see the 200s again in the next couple of months. China is going to be severely handicapped so money will not flow into the markets much from there for a long time. Companies like Neo and Bee made critical mistakes (undercapitalization) and failed at bringing game changing services to places like Cyprus. The most successful bitcoin companies are ones that basically save merchants transaction fee charges by using the bitcoin platform, but do not inject money into the bitcoin exchanges or encourage businesses to hold bitcoins.

I don't think Bitcoin is dead or would even be dead if we went to double digits. I do however think that bitcoin has some SERIOUS growing up to do and we are in a process of killing off the core group of unsavvy unprofessional people who championed us this far while replacing them with more traditional business leaders. And until that process matures some more, we aren't going to see capital inflow from large hands across the world.

Bitcoin has got to take some more heavy left handed crosses to the chin before it can officially maintain high dollar heights. And because these more traditional business leaders move more carefully and diligently, it might be 2015 before we see some real recoevery. 2014 might be a dark year (ie 2011) for bitcoin price indexes.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414



View Profile
April 02, 2014, 10:29:00 PM
 #52

... we are in a process of killing off the core group of unsavvy unprofessional people who championed us this far while replacing them with more traditional business leaders. ...

Smart post. Wholeheartedly agree with the gist of it. But about the quoted part...

Names! We want names! :D

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 06, 2014, 02:40:14 PM
 #53

I am altogether pleased with the accuracy of this week's report. despite a large bulltrap early in the week, the price action has followed the outline on page 25 nearly to the letter. we witnessed the projected move down to the major support level between $400-$420, reversing in the short-term around $416. then, we slowly drifted back up until reversing again at the $465 resistance, also detailed on page 25.

as always, i'd like to bump this thread with an invitation to any and all new subscribers. the publication still has 12 more issues to go!

---
1-day scale


http://i.imgur.com/9NFCoLN.png

---

here, we can see the moving resistance formed by the last two local highs on the 1-day scale coincides with the "last gasp" bulltrap from late January. this resistance also, incidentally, should coincide with the tip of what looks like a forming wedge. this price point will be extremely important, determing whether we reverse at these price levels and move up to the "bullish correction" targets, also from page 25, or retest the last low and possibly continue the downtrend.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
damdam
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3


View Profile
April 07, 2014, 01:10:21 PM
 #54

I wanted to know if you already sent this week's newsletter ?

We're already monday afternoon (in my part of the world), I have some money waiting to be spent on bitstamp, but I didn't received your newsletter. I'd like to read your opinion before buying.

Thank you.

whiz1003
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2


View Profile
April 07, 2014, 02:56:48 PM
 #55

Just sent payment for a subscription.  Can't get PM to send (keeps giving me an error), so I sent you an email instead, hopefully that's OK.  Thanks, very much a lurker but enjoy your work.
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1141


View Profile
April 07, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
 #56

I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

The spring I am referencing is much longer term than the charts you are looking at here.

Remember the last coil in July 2013? I believe it is happening again. Just a matter of time.

Let the weak hands sell then we can move up.

I'm not so sure anymore. I think we might see the 200s again in the next couple of months. China is going to be severely handicapped so money will not flow into the markets much from there for a long time. Companies like Neo and Bee made critical mistakes (undercapitalization) and failed at bringing game changing services to places like Cyprus. The most successful bitcoin companies are ones that basically save merchants transaction fee charges by using the bitcoin platform, but do not inject money into the bitcoin exchanges or encourage businesses to hold bitcoins.

I don't think Bitcoin is dead or would even be dead if we went to double digits. I do however think that bitcoin has some SERIOUS growing up to do and we are in a process of killing off the core group of unsavvy unprofessional people who championed us this far while replacing them with more traditional business leaders. And until that process matures some more, we aren't going to see capital inflow from large hands across the world.

Bitcoin has got to take some more heavy left handed crosses to the chin before it can officially maintain high dollar heights. And because these more traditional business leaders move more carefully and diligently, it might be 2015 before we see some real recoevery. 2014 might be a dark year (ie 2011) for bitcoin price indexes.

I'm with oda.krell. Smart post. It's nice to see a dose of realism here too.
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 07, 2014, 07:32:46 PM
 #57

this week's issue was just sent out to the following users:

oda.krell
docile
John999
kramerc
iron77
jlin
Aquatic
Blue
Ultros
Roger_Murdock
rushthatspeaks
castle
damdam
windjc
CoolStoryBro
whiz1003

enjoy! and happy trading.

--arepo

edit: friendly reminder to all subscribers, new and old, if you have not received any issues in the series and would like to, let me know via PM or email. i want to re-release some older issues for the sake of the accountability as well as for the longer-term projections that i have included in them, specifically the mid-term projections and price targets i included in the last issue, 31 March. subscribers are entitled to a backlog of as many issues as they have paid for.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 09, 2014, 12:22:59 AM
 #58

i'm sure many of you have heard of the Heartbleed bug by now. i hope no one has suffered any losses, as there was a lot of black hat activity in the early hours after the announcement.

in reaction to the news, many bitcoin-related services closed or otherwise restricted user activity and exchange volume has visibly suffered. this may have a limited effect on the projections in this week's issue, and we may see consolidation in the $465-$440 range for most of this week, scenario b. it is unclear whether or not the sluggish price action today is a direct result of the community's reaction to the bug, or is a natural result of a market in further consolidation. in the case of the latter, i would now rate scenario b as equally likely as scenario a.

further updates to come.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


this statement is false


View Profile
April 10, 2014, 05:16:35 AM
 #59

---



at $410 we are resting delicately atop the mid-term support.

here we see a playout of scenario c, making new lows. this comes as a bit of a surprise, but the figures in the newsletter began to show bearish divergence earlier today, so we could have expected scenario b, at least.

-the daily UO data (figure 2) bounced off of the upper support

-while the 50-line showed a little support in the daily Stochastic RSI (figure 4), today's price action broke below it

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi3gStochRSIzi4gUOzvzl

-the 50-line in the 6-hour RSI (figure 5) completely rejected the bullish suggestion

-the moving support in the 6-hour MFI (figure 5) was broken as well

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zig6-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzi2gMFIzvzl

-the bullish divergence in the 6-hour Rate of Change Oscillator (figure 6) reversed

-and the 6-hour ADX shows a coupled momentum and negative directional line.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zig6-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi3gROCzi4gADXzvzl

---

For the short term, this support should be a particularly strong one, so i do not think that a sudden crash from here is necessarily likely. If we see a snap-back that produces a long wick on the 12-hour scale, it could suggest a larger consolidation pattern before a market decision. If we remain at these levels for most of that period, this would be extremely bearish. Each other time we tested this bottom-most resistance, there was a quick snap-back in the price on the 12-hour scale that was followed by a large bulltrap, but we are in the midst of an unprecedented downtrend* (*reference issue 31 March). If price breaks below this price point, then we will have broken out of the larger triangle and could see a mid-term capitulation to the targets in issue 31 March, page 25, second paragraph.

edit: I have just re-issued report 31 March to those of you who have not already received it.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414



View Profile
April 10, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
 #60


For the short term, this support should be a particularly strong one, so i do not think that a sudden crash from here is necessarily likely. If we see a snap-back that produces a long wick on the 12-hour scale, it could suggest a larger consolidation pattern before a market decision. If we remain at these levels for most of that period, this would be extremely bearish. Each other time we tested this bottom-most resistance, there was a quick snap-back in the price on the 12-hour scale that was followed by a large bulltrap, but we are in the midst of an unprecedented downtrend* (*reference issue 31 March). If price breaks below this price point, then we will have broken out of the larger triangle and could see a mid-term capitulation to the targets in issue 31 March, page 25, second paragraph.

edit: I have just re-issued report 31 March to those of you who have not already received it.

--arepo

Good work, as always, arepo. It's interesting that you put in more technical terms something that I thought about in more intuitive ones: I think the most remarkable observation right now is how "normal" 400 suddenly looks.

A month, or two, ago, 400 had everyone salivating. Right now, we're creeping closer to it on pretty low volume. Will I buy at 400? Maybe, a bit. But nowhere near the enthusiasm I had for it myself back then.

Right now, 400 is protected somewhat by (in comparison to the total order book and average volume) some impressive buy orders around 400. But time works against the barrier, right now: we are in the process of feeling 400 is "normal", and if buying pressure doesn't majorly pick up until then, we will probably keep on testing it, and might eventually break it.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!