The market looks boring 2019

[deisik]

But anyway, I get your point that when its safe and easy enough for the average person that'll be huge and hopefully once merchants find it easy to use they will start adding it as a payment method. LN will only take off once major merchants adopt it

Thanks for not having me explain to you all this

Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins

Really, what merchant in his right mind would refuse to accept Bitcoin if there were such demand, i.e. people willing to pay in crypto? Indeed, there are some folks in the cryptospace ready to shell out and spend their coins without much ado, but if we cut the crap, most are here exclusively for fiat gains. They are using crypto as a vehicle for speculation, not as a means of payment. The bottom line is that LN on its own won't help merchants much because it is not them who should be helped in the first place

[1714993399]

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[thecodebear]

But anyway, I get your point that when its safe and easy enough for the average person that'll be huge and hopefully once merchants find it easy to use they will start adding it as a payment method. LN will only take off once major merchants adopt it

Thanks for not having me explain to you all this

Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins

Really, what merchant in his right mind would refuse to accept Bitcoin if there were such demand, i.e. people willing to pay in crypto? Indeed, there are some folks in the cryptospace ready to shell out and spend their coins without much ado, but if we cut the crap, most are here exclusively for fiat gains. They are using crypto as a vehicle for speculation, not as a means of payment. The bottom line is that LN on its own won't help merchants much because it is not them who should be helped in the first place

I disagree. LN will help merchants which is the main reason they will adopt it.

First off, only hard core bitcoiners are going to put coins on the LN if they can't spend those coins. There is zero reason to use the LN if you're just speculating and holding your coins. The reason to use LN is to spend your money, if merchant adoption isn't there 99% of Bitcoin owners won't bother putting coins on LN because there would be no reason to. LN will obviously continue to grow among people who are really into Bitcoin, and as more people get really into Bitcoin they will add to the LN, but your average person isn't going to get on there until they can use their profits to directly buy stuff on Amazon or whatever from the LN. Take me, for instance, I'm very much looking forward to the proliferation of LN use and the future of Bitcoin and I've bought and sold bitcoin since late-2013, but I won't bother trying out the LN until I can actually use it - which means there are some merchants I shop at who have LN payments set up. So I certainly wouldn't expect somebody who has some bitcoin but barely knows anything about it to put their bitcoin on LN until they see a LN/BTC button on Amazon and realize they can directly spend all the profit they've made.

LN will grow somewhat without big merchants, but mass adoption of it among the bitcoin community won't happen until many merchants come in. Because LN is not as good as Venmo for paying friends, and not as safe as normal Bitcoin wallets for storing Bitcoin, its major use case is spending money online in lieu of credit cards (as well as stuff like micropayments).

LN absolutely helps merchants because they get more money since they don't have to pay credit card fees. That makes a real difference to merchants. There is no one side of the transaction that LN should help and the other side it won't help. LN will help consumers spend their bitcoin without high fees and with instant processing, and it helps merchants achieve higher profits due to lack of fees, plus they don't have to wait for the money to move through the traditional financial system but instead they have access to the money immediately as long as they want to spend it on the LN, or however long some bitcoin to fiat conversion thing like bitpay or whatever takes to give them money (which i suppose would probably still take as long as legacy payments since it goes through the financial system).

Basically I think LN adoption will remain low but steadily growing until Amazon or a bunch of other significant merchants setup LN payments, at which point it can finally spread to everyone. You have to give people a reason to use LN, it just existing isn't reason enough.

[PuertoLibre]

Need to stop thinking BTC is an investment, but rather start using it for what it was meant to be, a "Peer-to-Peer Currency".

Mass adoption will help drive the price higher.

Almost more than half of market participants are here for gain profit,so no need to wear a mask. Bitcoin is not suitable for being "Peer-to-Peer Currency" and there are dozens of alternative cryptocurrencies which can fit more effectively for this "position". Only 3 percent of Americans have idea about cryptocurrencies if I am not mistaken. Imagine this numbers are increased more than 50%

[figmentofmyass]

Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins

Basically I think LN adoption will remain low but steadily growing until Amazon or a bunch of other significant merchants setup LN payments, at which point it can finally spread to everyone. You have to give people a reason to use LN, it just existing isn't reason enough.

i think he's right about the cart-and-horse problem. merchants can already get irreversibility of payments and low payment processing costs by using bitcoin. the reason merchant adoption has lagged so much is because there is a lack of demand from consumers to spend bitcoin. i don't think amazon accepting bitcoin or LN would fundamentally change that. the real problem is that bitcoiners don't want to spend their coins. they want to hold them......

[bintangkejoraku]

well, the market is very boring this year, big whales are still playing with prices. I don't understand what they want, but they frustrate many investors. I don't want to say this, but it's really boring.

[deisik]

Really, what merchant in his right mind would refuse to accept Bitcoin if there were such demand, i.e. people willing to pay in crypto? Indeed, there are some folks in the cryptospace ready to shell out and spend their coins without much ado, but if we cut the crap, most are here exclusively for fiat gains. They are using crypto as a vehicle for speculation, not as a means of payment. The bottom line is that LN on its own won't help merchants much because it is not them who should be helped in the first place

I disagree. LN will help merchants which is the main reason they will adopt it.

First off, only hard core bitcoiners are going to put coins on the LN if they can't spend those coins. There is zero reason to use the LN if you're just speculating and holding your coins

You see, your logic is flawed at the very beginning (just in case, you can't be speculating and holding your coins)

There's more than zero reason to use LN even if you are simply holding the coins provided using LN is safe, secure and straightforward. How come? Holders are likely the ones who are in fact strongly interested in organic growth of Bitcoin as speculators are mostly interested in volatility. The latter don't particularly care if Bitcoin goes up or down provided its price action is strong enough to give them the level of price change they are looking for

Holders, on the other hand, will most certainly be using their coins as a payment vehicle in LN specifically because they are not going to spend them. First on, this is what gives Bitcoin value as a means of exchange, i.e. exactly what they are looking for (organic growth). And second off, however small, it is still passive earning any way look at it. Well, maybe not so passive, but you get the point. Maybe, there are other reasons as well

[amitgupta1728]

You are right that market is looking boring as the invested amount is decreasing day by day, But.... no one knows the future. No one has predicted the price of 20K$ in starting of 2017. Price touched so quickly beyond everybody's prediction / expectation.

Wait for the good time. I am also waiting to become interesting from this actual boring time.

[tukagero]

I lost more than 50%  of what ive invested since last year, and it keeps on losing this year. I dont know how far i can hold this, im pissed off and ready to sell my holdings anytime in this boring market.

[deisik]

Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins

Basically I think LN adoption will remain low but steadily growing until Amazon or a bunch of other significant merchants setup LN payments, at which point it can finally spread to everyone. You have to give people a reason to use LN, it just existing isn't reason enough.

i think he's right about the cart-and-horse problem. merchants can already get irreversibility of payments and low payment processing costs by using bitcoin. the reason merchant adoption has lagged so much is because there is a lack of demand from consumers to spend bitcoin. i don't think amazon accepting bitcoin or LN would fundamentally change that. the real problem is that bitcoiners don't want to spend their coins. they want to hold them

To sum it up, merchants are not a limiting factor here

Indeed, if they flat-out refuse to accept Bitcoin, there won't be mass adoption of this cryptocurrency as a means of payment. But people only see what is right before their eyes, but they fail to see the real culprit in this matter. If people wanted to pay with Bitcoin en masse, I can't find even a single reason (apart from legal ones, of course) why merchants wouldn't want to accept Bitcoin, especially when all the infrastructure needed is already there. It simply doesn't make sense. And in such circumstances we have no other choice but to conclude there is no demand from consumers

[Barcode_]

I lost more than 50%  of what ive invested since last year, and it keeps on losing this year. I dont know how far i can hold this, im pissed off and ready to sell my holdings anytime in this boring market.

My bitcoin and altcoins investment have also dropped a lot in its values too, but since I have already hold on to my crypto-currencies investment for more than one year now, I do not think it would be logical for me to sell all of it away in this bearish market, I would just wait patiently for this whole bear market to end.

[DeathAngel]

I’m glad the market is boring with low volatility, it gives us lots of time to accumulate. Use this period to load up as many bitcoin’s as you can.

Once in a lifetime opportunity.

[Oilacris]

We are just starting of this year and you already given up some conclusions that we are already a boring year.The difference now on where fundamentals or news doesn't really gave much affect on market prices.
Theres BAKKT and ETF but it seems the market doesn't really react at all.I actually laugh into those persons being mentioned. They are really a joke. Did we forget something?

[Roni116]

I think to get results it is not easy, it takes patience and also the struggle to maintain confidence in crypto, and if we can do it, a big result will be obtained. The crypto market will not be forever bad, but will be able to recover and provide good results.

[Akoldi_ibk]

Already in 2019 and the market looks boring. Just get a life outside crypto-verse and light it up with real life enjoyment/engagement. Forget about taking profit, buying the dip, losing of investment or shorting. Just have a reflection on other things. Know that you will be welcome back when the market party starts.

[omonuyak]

Every January the market has been behaving like this and we are not to invest based on how market move at this moment but on what the future hold for us.  Those that buy early 2017 are in money at December the same year and I seriously think the same thing is going to happen this year.

[deisik]

I’m glad the market is boring with low volatility, it gives us lots of time to accumulate. Use this period to load up as many bitcoin’s as you can.

Once in a lifetime opportunity

We can only hope for that

On a less optimistic note, though, we should not forget that the market was also kind of boring just a couple months ago when Bitcoin had been trading in the 6000-7000 range long enough. I didn't follow the forum very closely back then (though I closely followed the price), so I don't know what people had been complaining about at the time

But I'm strongly inclined to think that they were also feeling bored. And I also inevitably come to think that these two groups of people, i.e. bored then and bored now, are not quite the same, with the bottom line being that this feeling may in fact be not a bad idea after all if it comes to stay

[exstasie]

Learn about shorts and life will be full again.

Shorting is gambling. You'll never know when there will be a reversal.

Sure, but why does that matter? That's when you stop shorting.

You'll always lose some trades (like longs near the top and shorts near the bottom). But as long as you follow the mantra "the trend is your friend" and properly manage your risk, I wouldn't call it gambling.

[cryptojac17]

I lost more than 50%  of what ive invested since last year, and it keeps on losing this year. I dont know how far i can hold this, im pissed off and ready to sell my holdings anytime in this boring market.

I understand how you feel mate, and relating to your sentiment right now I can also figure it out. My holding also was having slow increase and in fact the market was really having bad movements right now. However I am still positive that we will experience good market soon, but for now it's an impossible thing to happen yet. We need to have more patience to maximum tolerance in order to achieve our goals, because dumping our asset is showing our weakness without facing struggles.

[thecodebear]

Really, what merchant in his right mind would refuse to accept Bitcoin if there were such demand, i.e. people willing to pay in crypto? Indeed, there are some folks in the cryptospace ready to shell out and spend their coins without much ado, but if we cut the crap, most are here exclusively for fiat gains. They are using crypto as a vehicle for speculation, not as a means of payment. The bottom line is that LN on its own won't help merchants much because it is not them who should be helped in the first place

I disagree. LN will help merchants which is the main reason they will adopt it.

First off, only hard core bitcoiners are going to put coins on the LN if they can't spend those coins. There is zero reason to use the LN if you're just speculating and holding your coins

You see, your logic is flawed at the very beginning (just in case, you can't be speculating and holding your coins)

There's more than zero reason to use LN even if you are simply holding the coins provided using LN is safe, secure and straightforward. How come? Holders are likely the ones who are in fact strongly interested in organic growth of Bitcoin as speculators are mostly interested in volatility. The latter don't particularly care if Bitcoin goes up or down provided its price action is strong enough to give them the level of price change they are looking for

Holders, on the other hand, will most certainly be using their coins as a payment vehicle in LN specifically because they are not going to spend them. First on, this is what gives Bitcoin value as a means of exchange, i.e. exactly what they are looking for (organic growth). And second off, however small, it is still passive earning any way look at it. Well, maybe not so passive, but you get the point. Maybe, there are other reasons as well

Sorry your argument doesn't fly.

Holders will be using coins as a payment vehicle...can't get any more contradictory than that, and then in the same sentence you contradict yourself again by saying they AREN'T going to spend them. I have no idea what you were trying to say there but it doesn't make any sense.

And no, there is no reason to use the LN if you aren't spending coins. Zero reason. No one in their right mind would put their coins on the LN for the long term instead of cold storage. That flies in the face of every caution in cryptocurrency.

Also you absolutely can be speculating and holding. I hold most of my coins long term and trade with some money, and thereby I completely disproved your first statement about my logic being flawed.

[thecodebear]

Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins

Basically I think LN adoption will remain low but steadily growing until Amazon or a bunch of other significant merchants setup LN payments, at which point it can finally spread to everyone. You have to give people a reason to use LN, it just existing isn't reason enough.

i think he's right about the cart-and-horse problem. merchants can already get irreversibility of payments and low payment processing costs by using bitcoin. the reason merchant adoption has lagged so much is because there is a lack of demand from consumers to spend bitcoin. i don't think amazon accepting bitcoin or LN would fundamentally change that. the real problem is that bitcoiners don't want to spend their coins. they want to hold them

To sum it up, merchants are not a limiting factor here

Indeed, if they flat-out refuse to accept Bitcoin, there won't be mass adoption of this cryptocurrency as a means of payment. But people only see what is right before their eyes, but they fail to see the real culprit in this matter. If people wanted to pay with Bitcoin en masse, I can't find even a single reason (apart from legal ones, of course) why merchants wouldn't want to accept Bitcoin, especially when all the infrastructure needed is already there. It simply doesn't make sense. And in such circumstances we have no other choice but to conclude there is no demand from consumers

To sum up better, merchants absolutely are a limiting factor because there is no reason for the vast majority of bitcoin owners to put their coins on the LN unless they are regularly spending bitcoin at merchants. As I said, LN will grow steadily from people just testing it out but you won't see a significant number of bitcoin owners (millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions in the future) putting their money on the LN unless there is an actual reason to (i certainly wouldn't!). And the reason to use it is when they can actually buy something with it. LN probably doesn't even need to be that big to convince merchants to adopt it, what is important is that Bitcoin gets big. It's not a hard sell to tell someone who owns bitcoin and wants to spend it to get on the LN because Amazon or whoever now accepts bitcoin payments through LN. But what is a hard sell is telling merchants that they should put in the work and the hassle to adopt a new payment solution when there's only maybe 20 million people in the whole world who even have it.

Obviously both the merchants and consumers matter in this scenario. But bitcoin owners can be brought into the LN to easily spend bitcoin (assuming the price is high so they feel they get a good value from spending their coins) when they hear they can actually use their coins. If you try to tell someone to throw their coins out of a secure place and onto the LN in order to...do nothing, thats not a strong argument. So like I said, LN won't grab significant growth of bitcoin owners until there is a serious use case for it, that use case is spending bitcoin at merchants.