Is 2019 the new 2015?

[deisik]

we don't need a catalyst for a bottom to form. what we need is for sellers to dry up

"There's plenty of room between here and zero"

You see, we can understand that there was a price bottom only in retrospect, i.e. when prices have risen enough to justify and validate this conclusion. But for prices to rise the lack of sellers is nowhere near enough. We also need demand for that, what a surprise. And here's the catch. With speculative assets no demand means prices falling in the long run as there is no real value to prop them up. In other words, even if technically there are less sellers sticking around, their effect on price becomes multiplied as there is no demand either and consequently no support

[bitbunnny]

There are some similarities but I wouldn't make such comparisons or expect the same scenario. In 2015 market was quite different compared with today, smaller number of investors and not such influence from the side. We can't expect the same growth pattern as it was back then. Today people are quite sceptic and reluctant to invest in crypto market so we need some fresh blood comming and some big influental investors to start the market moving in right direction.

[Barbut]

There are some similarities but I wouldn't make such comparisons or expect the same scenario. In 2015 market was quite different compared with today, smaller number of investors and not such influence from the side. We can't expect the same growth pattern as it was back then. Today people are quite sceptic and reluctant to invest in crypto market so we need some fresh blood comming and some big influental investors to start the market moving in right direction.

I think there are much more people now involved with bitcoin than 4 years ago. There are similarities, and one more similarity is between 2014 and 2018, price suffered from drop both times for more than 80%.
I can imagine bitcoin price to break this support by the end of this year and rise to $8,000. There is a lot of time, many things can happen, we need to be patient and wait the end of the year.

[VeeraS]

I hope your prophecy really happened.
but there seems to be no strong indication for market growth in the near future, I agree something will happen towards the end of this year.
so the hope is just to wait and hold than to sell

[fabiorem]

So, the bottom would be something between $1400-$1900, since $171 is less than half of $371, and we would reach something between $4000-$5000 by the end of the year.

[omonuyak]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.





Night is darkest right before the dawn.

I really agree with you and I think along what you have posted too.  I have been following this market for quite some time now and I agree that the event that happened in 2015 may repeat itself.

[Febo]

I probably sound like a broken record by now, but it's way too early to say. There hasn't been any technical sign of a significant bottom yet, nor have we established a medium term uptrend to suggest the bear market might be over. A sideways year of accumulation like 2015 is definitely possible, but it's the best case scenario.

We could still be waiting for a V-bottom like January 2015 to mark the bottom. In that case, we haven't seen the bottom yet nor begun the long sideways period. Alternatively, we could be in for another year of downtrending just like 2018.

Of course you can never be sure. But hash rate decrease in November predicted bottom in December. Same happened in 2011 and zero growth at the end of 2014. so we cant totally dismiss that bottom happened when many fingers points to it.  But even if bottom had not happened it will happen soon. I dont see almost any chances for additional year of downtrends.

.., if anything 2018 was like 2015 and we should be beginning a new bull run anytime now.

2018 was huge loss for Bitcoin and not a 35% increase as 2015.    2018 was new 2014.

So, the bottom would be something between $1400-$1900, since $171 is less than half of $371, and we would reach something between $4000-$5000 by the end of the year.

Only if bottom is yet still to happened. If that is the case we will know it soon.  

[LeGaulois]

There are some similarities but I wouldn't make such comparisons or expect the same scenario. In 2015 market was quite different compared with today, smaller number of investors and not such influence from the side. We can't expect the same growth pattern as it was back then. Today people are quite sceptic and reluctant to invest in crypto market so we need some fresh blood comming and some big influental investors to start the market moving in right direction.

This.

Back before we were still optimists but in 2019, not only the market is not the same but, people feel discouraged. Influential investors could help yes but they really need to be big and we need more than one. The problem is these big investors aren't actually interested in investing in cryptos. The market showed too much volatility for a short period of time (and not for a positive point) and there is no signal showing THE good opportunity, so why would they?

[exstasie]

So, the bottom would be something between $1400-$1900, since $171 is less than half of $371, and we would reach something between $4000-$5000 by the end of the year.

What are those numbers based on? It looks vaguely like the yearly open in 2015 vs. the capitulation bottom, but the numbers are off.

Of course you can never be sure. But hash rate decrease in November predicted bottom in December.

That doesn't seem right. The hash rate drop followed the price drop. It was just loss-making miners shutting down. The hash rate stopped dropping after the price stopped crashing. How is the hash rate predictive of anything?

[Febo]

There are some similarities but I wouldn't make such comparisons or expect the same scenario. In 2015 market was quite different compared with today, smaller number of investors and not such influence from the side. We can't expect the same growth pattern as it was back then. Today people are quite sceptic and reluctant to invest in crypto market so we need some fresh blood comming and some big influental investors to start the market moving in right direction.

This.

Back before we were still optimists but in 2019, not only the market is not the same but, people feel discouraged. Influential investors could help yes but they really need to be big and we need more than one. The problem is these big investors aren't actually interested in investing in cryptos. The market showed too much volatility for a short period of time (and not for a positive point) and there is no signal showing THE good opportunity, so why would they?

This was exactly the case in 2015. All you wrote, that was exactly what was going on back then. Sentiment is same. Difference is that thee is more Bitcoin and there is bigger demand for them and higher price.

Of course you can never be sure. But hash rate decrease in November predicted bottom in December.

That doesn't seem right. The hash rate drop followed the price drop. It was just loss-making miners shutting down. The hash rate stopped dropping after the price stopped crashing. How is the hash rate predictive of anything?

It was exactly same in 2011 and in 2014. Few weeks before bottom happened.

[normanz]

I will be very grateful if that can be achieved, but it depends on the level of bitcoin adoption, and I think the movement of bitcoin this year is much more difficult than in 2015.

[deisik]

Back before we were still optimists but in 2019, not only the market is not the same but, people feel discouraged. Influential investors could help yes but they really need to be big and we need more than one. The problem is these big investors aren't actually interested in investing in cryptos. The market showed too much volatility for a short period of time (and not for a positive point) and there is no signal showing THE good opportunity, so why would they?

Volatility is not a bad thing on its own

In fact, if gold was as volatile as cryptocurrencies (or even half as much), we would see a dramatic influx of traders into the gold market. And here lies the real explanation of disappointment, i.e. it is not volatility per se that pushes away investors and big-time speculators. Gold is not volatile because everyone knows that it is worth on its own, no matter what. And this real value makes it so stable. Consequently, it is not volatility that repels investors like sun repels darkness. It is lack of real value which makes cryptocurrencies extremely risky

[7jaka7]

I think it may take more time for next bull run. I think the bigger the exposure in news more dumb* people there is. So the whole cycle takes longer to repeat itself. Maybe next halvening will be turning point.
I still think this is pretty accurate prediction.

*People who does it like "buy high, sell low"

[deisik]

I think it may take more time for next bull run. I think the bigger the exposure in news more dumb* people there is. So the whole cycle takes longer to repeat itself. Maybe next halvening will be turning point.
I still think this is pretty accurate prediction

The turning point may set in earlier

If the past is any indicator of the future (let's assume that for a moment), the price should start rising around 6-8 months before the halving. It is how it happened with the previous halving, which occurred in the first decade of July 2016. The prices started to rise since September 2015 from $200 and reached $600 by June 2016. So if the next halving is to occur in May 2020, prices should start to rise in the summer of this year

[wuvdoll]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

I want you to continue your speculation into the year of 2020 by taking scenarios from the year of bitcoin 2017. Surprisingly the year 2018 was just a replica of what we had in 2014 then why not 2019 will be having similar price fluctuation of 2015.

In contradictory, we need to take consideration about the familiarity of bitcoin among institutional investors and possibilities of ETF and etc. I mean to say the differences on external factors among 2015 and 2019 will be playing a big role in deciding where bitcoin market will be trading. Bitcoin had fallen in similar manner how it did in previous time after a new ATH but it does not need to follow same trend while rising up.

All markets are known for shocking and surprising us. I was confident that bitcoin will not fall in 2017 similar to 2014 (by considering number of bitcoin adopters and other similar factors) but it did. Now, we are expecting a sideways market in 2019 but my inner thoughts say, "expect more surprises than 2017".

[Febo]

I want you to continue your speculation into the year of 2020 by taking scenarios from the year of bitcoin 2017. Surprisingly the year 2018 was just a replica of what we had in 2014 then why not 2019 will be having similar price fluctuation of 2015.

There is possible that 2020 will be similar as 2016. But we need to get 2019 behind us to set such predictions.  One thing about 2020 is sure, That if bull run will not start at end of 2019 it will start in 2020 for sure.

[1Referee]

One thing about 2020 is sure, That if bull run will not start at end of 2019 it will start in 2020 for sure.

Certainties don't exist here. If the demand is consistent, we might be going up continuously over a longer period of time, but not in a way people here consider it a bull run.

At this point it's safe to say that any sort of increase beyond the local highs being $5000, $6000, $7000, etc, is already something people are extremely happy with. The difference between current and previous bear market is that people are still somewhat hopeful that we'll recover soon, while back in 2014/2015 there was more doom.

It could be the improved fundamentals giving people hope and confidence, but still, that doesn't change anything from how market movers might want to see more selling before they are confident in buying it up.

[exstasie]

Of course you can never be sure. But hash rate decrease in November predicted bottom in December.

That doesn't seem right. The hash rate drop followed the price drop. It was just loss-making miners shutting down. The hash rate stopped dropping after the price stopped crashing. How is the hash rate predictive of anything?

It was exactly same in 2011 and in 2014. Few weeks before bottom happened.

That doesn't prove the bottom is in. It just proves hash rate drops when price drops. When price stops dropping, so does hash rate. Any local bottom (or long term bottom) will have this dynamic because there is a direct relationship between price and mining profitability.

But you have no way to distinguish between a local bottom (like a bear flag before new lows) and a long term bottom (like 2011). If we crash again to new lows, hash rate will probably crash again too.

In other words, price predicts changes to hash rate, not the other way around.

[STT]

I think it may take more time for next bull run. I think the bigger the exposure in news more dumb* people there is. So the whole cycle takes longer to repeat itself. Maybe next halvening will be turning point.
I still think this is pretty accurate prediction.

*People who does it like "buy high, sell low"
http://i66.tinypic.com/ezmt51.jpg

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think.  Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic.    People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative.

So as always there is an anticipation of the movement but more importantly the actual fundamental effect is there but takes place over months

[mirakal]

The scenario is good although we might experience another down trend, but that's alright as long as it will end up positive.

2015 is 3 years ago but it's possible, this market has trends and it happens most of the time, so I'm not thinking of quitting anytime soon.
I know one day it will start to rally, I mean big rally that will make us start speculating on the positive move.