Is 2019 the new 2015?

[jakezyrus]

Probably this can be good assumption. Everything point for this same scenario only with different prices but path is the same. We could expect to see another movement bigger off course by the next halving not before. Unless something that is major and can impact in crypto community with big slap nothing else can change current price.

Next halving can give the enough fire to make the lrices to reach next level but I think we are in need of something to ignite the prices before it even to make the cryptocurrency market to be alive since holders of cryptos were already starts having that they are waiting too long.

Im not aware that a halving can boost the price .  is halving different from a fork ?  I only know that a fork can have an impact on the value of a certain coin that will be undergone unto a fork because people tend to buy more of that coin in the hopes of getting the same amount of fork coins  .

[deisik]

Probably this can be good assumption. Everything point for this same scenario only with different prices but path is the same. We could expect to see another movement bigger off course by the next halving not before. Unless something that is major and can impact in crypto community with big slap nothing else can change current price.

Next halving can give the enough fire to make the lrices to reach next level but I think we are in need of something to ignite the prices before it even to make the cryptocurrency market to be alive since holders of cryptos were already starts having that they are waiting too long.

Im not aware that a halving can boost the price .  is halving different from a fork ?  I only know that a fork can have an impact on the value of a certain coin that will be undergone unto a fork because people tend to buy more of that coin in the hopes of getting the same amount of fork coins

Forks have nothing to do with halvings

Halving is about reducing the supply of new coins while forks are adding to this supply. Well, technically, it is more about creating a new source of coins (different coins) but for simplicity's sake you can think along these lines. And since halving reduces supply by halving the block reward, it should at least theoretically lead to higher prices eventually. That's basically why people are placing so much hope on the next halving

[fabiorem]

The last three days gave me the impression of 2016, not 2015. In 2016, every time I checked the price, it was going up, without pause. But then, I was not following it too much, like today.

[thecodebear]

The last three days gave me the impression of 2016, not 2015. In 2016, every time I checked the price, it was going up, without pause. But then, I was not following it too much, like today.

People got way too excited this past week thinking that just because we had a week of rising prices and high volume that meant the next bull run had started. People need to just calm down, it will very likely be at least several more months until the price rises out of the $3000s bottom. People shouldn't be so desperate to declare a bull run. It was just a pump during the bottoming phase of the market cycle. Let's not forget Bitcoin did two almost 50% pumps in 2015 during its bottoming phase from low $200s to $300 and both times fell back down before later on finally starting the bull run.  There is no reason to expect prices to rise out of the $3000s anytime soon, we're still only a bit over 3 months into the bottom, it could easily take another 6 months or more (though it certainly is possible it could start sooner with the bullish set of events that we know about all building up like Fidelity, BAKKT, NASDAQ?, possible ETF, crypto phones all happening, but just saying there is no reason to get excited over any rise in price thinking that the bull run has started only to get disappointed a few days later when the price drops back down and you realize that was just normal bottom-phase movement).

[Febo]

Probably this can be good assumption. Everything point for this same scenario only with different prices but path is the same. We could expect to see another movement bigger off course by the next halving not before. Unless something that is major and can impact in crypto community with big slap nothing else can change current price.

Next halving can give the enough fire to make the lrices to reach next level but I think we are in need of something to ignite the prices before it even to make the cryptocurrency market to be alive since holders of cryptos were already starts having that they are waiting too long.

Im not aware that a halving can boost the price .  is halving different from a fork ?  I only know that a fork can have an impact on the value of a certain coin that will be undergone unto a fork because people tend to buy more of that coin in the hopes of getting the same amount of fork coins  .

Next halving will halve the Bitcoin block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. That will reduce bitcoins yearly emission inflation to under 2% what is less then is yearly Gold mining inflation. So for the first time in history Bitcoin will become more scarce then Gold.  Of course we cant predict how much gold will be mined yearly in the future because that si not a mathematical fact same as Bitcoins emission, but I can speculate that will always be over  Bitcoins emision.

[STT]

Gold is a far larger market, I'm wary of comparing the two when they are really different things.    Gold is stored over decades to centuries by central banks and then utilised as an asset.  Bitcoin is still very new, its far more dependant on its value to be useful in a transaction related capacity where as gold barely requires this to rise in value anyway.

2019 is still closer to the end of 2014 I think.   I remember the last half to block reward and it took a while after, so thats my parallel for timing it now

[deisik]

Probably this can be good assumption. Everything point for this same scenario only with different prices but path is the same. We could expect to see another movement bigger off course by the next halving not before. Unless something that is major and can impact in crypto community with big slap nothing else can change current price.

Next halving can give the enough fire to make the lrices to reach next level but I think we are in need of something to ignite the prices before it even to make the cryptocurrency market to be alive since holders of cryptos were already starts having that they are waiting too long.

Im not aware that a halving can boost the price .  is halving different from a fork ?  I only know that a fork can have an impact on the value of a certain coin that will be undergone unto a fork because people tend to buy more of that coin in the hopes of getting the same amount of fork coins  .

Next halving will halve the Bitcoin block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. That will reduce bitcoins yearly emission inflation to under 2% what is less then is yearly Gold mining inflation. So for the first time in history Bitcoin will become more scarce then Gold.  Of course we cant predict how much gold will be mined yearly in the future because that si not a mathematical fact same as Bitcoins emission, but I can speculate that will always be over  Bitcoins emision

People are still massively confused about scarcity and how it works

I explained it a few times but it seems to be about right time to repeat the lesson. Bitcoin's yearly supply being less than gold's doesn't in the least mean that Bitcoin is more scarce than gold (the opposite can also turn out to be true, just in case). Any such figures are meaningless because there is no scarcity on its own as it should always relate to something, most commonly to some group of people (or the whole world population)

In this way, Bitcoin may already be more scarce than gold (say, per dollar worth per capita). I don't know if it actually is but you can always check that yourself. And while we are at it, I think it is correctly called supply, not emission. Are you coming from Slavic languages? Just curious

[Febo]

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

It seems bull market might actually star before October.  I heard so many times in past that in this cycle the bull market will happen earlier because whales know what will happen and they will want to be ahead of the curve and be faster then other whales.

[STT]

There will be many false starts despite the recent positivity I doubt we are going to go straight up from here.   5500 to 6500 is a rocky area for being previous support.    Its a kind of ceiling, that push back can make people apprehensive and then we are lower then expected after that, etc

Bitcoin may already be more scarce than gold (say, per dollar worth per capita)

The thing that matters is the usage, theres lots of gold supply left in the earths crust.   It'll keep being discovered and mined as Bitcoin delibrately goes the other way and restricts block rewards and leaves miners with just fees levied.    So fees are related to usage and demand, thats really how I would compare the two assets

Gold will have demand rising also as paper money is destabilised by the tail end risks of QE programs, in short this QE of ten years or more is an unknown factor in global monetary circulation

[deisik]

There will be many false starts despite the recent positivity I doubt we are going to go straight up from here.   5500 to 6500 is a rocky area for being previous support.    Its a kind of ceiling, that push back can make people apprehensive and then we are lower then expected after that, etc

Bitcoin may already be more scarce than gold (say, per dollar worth per capita)

The thing that matters is the usage, theres lots of gold supply left in the earths crust.   It'll keep being discovered and mined as Bitcoin delibrately goes the other way and restricts block rewards and leaves miners with just fees levied.   So fees are related to usage and demand, thats really how I would compare the two assets

With Lightning Network fees become extinct

And that's a good thing as money works better without an unnecessary overhead in the form of fees. Yes, widespread usage of this technology would make miners starve to the point of capitulation and then get out of business which in turn would threaten the Bitcoin network resistance to outside attacks. In this case, we should arguably expect the change in the underlying technology for block confirmations (consensus mechanism). But no matter the outcome, miners (and their fees) are not something which defines Bitcoin

Gold will have demand rising also as paper money is destabilised by the tail end risks of QE programs, in short this QE of ten years or more is an unknown factor in global monetary circulation

All paper will burn

[cryptjh]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

This is a very good guess, 2019 will most likely be one long year of corrections before we can start the next bull run, up to the next halving in May 2020
I think the market will get really bullish around Litecoins halving, just 4 months from now, so august and September cut turn out to be this year peak also for bitcoins.

[Febo]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

Night is darkest right before the dawn.

I was mostly wrong, but at the end I guess i will be quite close    10% change is a lot for many asset, but tiny mistake for Bitcoin.

[wheelz1200]

While I dont think that any year will exactly mimic another year each will be unique.  I do think it will show some similarities when we look back.  I subscribe to the fact that 2020 might be a sideways growth year like 2016, and 2021 might be the breakout year.  All speculation of course but I do believe it is a cool year here

[pooya87]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

Night is darkest right before the dawn.

I was mostly wrong, but at the end I guess i will be quite close    10% change is a lot for many asset, but tiny mistake for Bitcoin.

actually it was a good and correct observation. the only thing you got wrong was the duration of the downtime. i believe that in each cycle (if we can call it that) the periods are getting shorter while the rises become bigger.
that means the downtime in 2015 was like this
1- reach the bottom at $220 ($150 wasn't the bottom) in Jan 2015
2- stay below $300 for ~7 moths and have a panic sell
3- breaking $300 resistance and starting to go up -> 37%
4- have another panic sell (bear trap mostly)
5- big FOMO breakout to $500 in Oct -> 72%
6- end with smaller bear trap by the end of the year. -> -32%
now 2019 looks exactly the same
1- reach bottom at $3200
2- remain below $4k until April for about ~5 months (start was in Dec last year)
3- break $4k and start going up. -> 45%
4- have the panic sell (bear trap) that is coming from $5k+ to $4k again
5- big FOMO breakout to $13k in June -> 83%
6- end with smaller bear trap by the end of the year. -> -52%

you see they are almost the same trend with a little bit difference in timings and a little in size.

[imstillthebest]

nc analysis boi . i already forget that btc price were so dumped on the first few months of this year but luckily it goes up , up to this point that we have right now  .

 im still thankfull and happy despite the few drops that happen lately because its way more better than seeing btc at 3k+ usd each.  in terms of comparing , others do also love to compare prices of cryptos from the past years  , so its not basically a new thing to me .

[bitbunnny]

To be honest I don't like such comparisons too much. To my opinion Bitcoin users are too much obsessed with finding patterns and comparisons of Bitcoin price in different time frameworks, always expecting the best intevals to repeat. Sometimes that makes unnecessary pressure.
Analysis could be good and useful however I'm more focused on present and how to get the best out of Bitcoin now.