POLL: Did we hit the bottom?

[Tzupy]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell.

There is a bullish setup in 6h and 12h MACD, probably 1 or 2 higher highs are going to happen in the next 2 - 3 weeks (if the market keeps current pace). And IMO that will be the top and a bull trap.
If this will unfold as I expect, about 2 weeks from now I'll post a bearish chart, with a later bottom around 2500$. Still, the weekly PSAR might flip to bullish next week, so not all is bearish.

[deisik]

that simply is never going to happen. that is just absurd.

the "store of value" campaign started a year ago when fees were extremely high and people wanted to deny the fact that bitcoin stopped being a currency because of the high fees and that is the only thing bitcoin is designed for.
so people are only going to ever buy bitcoin either as an investment to make profit or as a currency to enjoy the decentralization. nothing else matters.

Store of value is the first thing that needs to drop into place, then it can become a currency after that. No one uses a currency if they don't believe it's a store of value first.

And something that's incorruptible with eventual deflation is the most obvious candidate possible to be a store of value

It doesn't mean a shit

As altcoins are essentially making Bitcoin inflationary even if technically speaking the number of coins to be mined is limited. Obviously, I'm not talking about a plethora of shitcoins that no one gives a fuck about anymore. I refer to altcoins which have a decent price tag attached to them (like Ethereum, BCash, Litecoin, etc)

Anyone who would be denying that they don't dilute Bitcoin's value is likely in denial himself. Indeed, it is way more complicated than that (which totally justifies creating a separate topic of its own), but the net effect seems to be pretty straightforward and evident, i.e. without these altcoins Bitcoin would be better off, like a lot better

[exstasie]

As for this thread, I was expecting the last few weeks to be the muckiest time. It's been pretty quiet and smooth instead. I'm more confident of bottomness than I was at the start of the year.

So soon?

I feel like this market moves so much slower than years ago. Everything seems to take longer. More consolidations and whipsaws and slow bleeds, and less roller coasters.

With that in mind, I look back at the 2015 bottom and it took a solid 9 months to carve that out and enter a bull market again. And who knows, maybe it'll take twice as long now. So I wonder if this current price action isn't all just trolling before we see another eventual attempt at making new lows again.

[deisik]

I feel like this market moves so much slower than years ago. Everything seems to take longer. More consolidations and whipsaws and slow bleeds, and less roller coasters

Wasn't I telling you essentially the same?

With that in mind, I look back at the 2015 bottom and it took a solid 9 months to carve that out and enter a bull market again. And who knows, maybe it'll take twice as long now. So I wonder if this current price action isn't all just trolling before we see another eventual attempt at making new lows again

I can't agree with that part, no way

For people who hadn't been there and hadn't seen with their own eyes how things actually unfolded through that year, it may look like we were sitting on the floor all 9 months. That's the impression that many would get after reading your post. But it was never the case. We crashed below 200 dollars in February, that's true. But then we surged to 300 dollars by the midsummer. And then there was a flash crash to 200 in late August and by November we were over 400 dollars already. In this manner, you can't actually say that it took us 9 months to carve the bottom out as there were at least two distinct bottoms in 2015 with plenty of high price in between

I believe 2019 will be the year where most alts die and never make a comeback. There was a window of opportunity to pretend to be a viable BTC replacement. Now it's over. Bitcoin is way too far ahead in terms of development

Most of these shitcoins already died in 2018 (abandoned and left for dead). If anything, 2019 will only make people truly understand this fact (who haven't already)

[exstasie]

I feel like this market moves so much slower than years ago. Everything seems to take longer. More consolidations and whipsaws and slow bleeds, and less roller coasters

Wasn't I telling you essentially the same?

No, you were saying there was going to be a really tight long term range between $3K and $4K. I couldn't agree with that at all.

With that in mind, I look back at the 2015 bottom and it took a solid 9 months to carve that out and enter a bull market again. And who knows, maybe it'll take twice as long now. So I wonder if this current price action isn't all just trolling before we see another eventual attempt at making new lows again

I can't agree with that part, no way

For people who hadn't been there and hadn't seen with their own eyes how things actually unfolded through that year, it may look like we were sitting on the floor all 9 months. That's the impression that many would get after reading your post. But it was never the case. We crashed below 200 dollars in February, that's true. But then we surged to 300 dollars by the midsummer. And then there was a flash crash to 200 in late August and by November we were over 400 dollars already. In this manner, you can't actually say that it took us 9 months to carve the bottom out as there were two distinct bottoms with plenty of high price in between

That's what a long term bottom looks like. A trading range ($150-$320), tested multiple times in both directions. We eventually broke upwards from that bottom range, but it took 9 months to do it.

Most of these shitcoins already died in 2018 (abandoned and left for dead). If anything, 2019 will only make people truly understand this fact

A lot of the altcoins that "died" in 2014 and 2015 bubbled again in 2017. Just sayin.

[deisik]

I feel like this market moves so much slower than years ago. Everything seems to take longer. More consolidations and whipsaws and slow bleeds, and less roller coasters

Wasn't I telling you essentially the same?

No, you were saying there was going to be a really tight long term range between $3K and $4K. I couldn't agree with that at all

To me, it is mostly the same

But you are entitled to disagree, of course. Other than that, I really expect things to move "much slower than years ago" and "everything taking longer". Wtf, isn't this exactly what we have been experiencing recently? Well, in the last week, there was some action finally but it already seems to be on the wane anyway, and we can't discard two months of inactivity just because market looked somewhat alive for a couple of days

With that in mind, I look back at the 2015 bottom and it took a solid 9 months to carve that out and enter a bull market again. And who knows, maybe it'll take twice as long now. So I wonder if this current price action isn't all just trolling before we see another eventual attempt at making new lows again

I can't agree with that part, no way

For people who hadn't been there and hadn't seen with their own eyes how things actually unfolded through that year, it may look like we were sitting on the floor all 9 months. That's the impression that many would get after reading your post. But it was never the case. We crashed below 200 dollars in February, that's true. But then we surged to 300 dollars by the midsummer. And then there was a flash crash to 200 in late August and by November we were over 400 dollars already. In this manner, you can't actually say that it took us 9 months to carve the bottom out as there were two distinct bottoms with plenty of high price in between

That's what a long term bottom looks like. A trading range ($150-$320), tested multiple times in both directions. We eventually broke upwards from that bottom range, but it took 9 months to do it

Yeah, I understand that with today's prices in many thousands it doesn't look or feel like a big deal, but that was over 100% increase, which would match today's prices going from 3.5k to over 7k. Just giving you a perspective on how much "long term bottom" actually was in these price swings

Most of these shitcoins already died in 2018 (abandoned and left for dead). If anything, 2019 will only make people truly understand this fact

A lot of the altcoins that "died" in 2014 and 2015 bubbled again in 2017. Just sayin

Which altcoins prior to 2014 do you refer to specifically, the both of them? Neither Litecoin nor Dogecoin died in 2014, so they didn't have to resurrect in 2017. Just in case

[samson]

i am wondering whether any of those 49% who voted for no would want to change their vote now that price is getting closer to $4k and we are about to break it. this may not be the bull run and the break may take longer than normal but bottom is so far hit and long gone.

I've changed my mind. I'm now sceptical and think that we may not have hit the bottom in mid Decmeber.

[DeathAngel]

Looking more & more likely as time passes that we have seen the bottom. I think ghe bear market is over. What we’re witnessing now is the accumulation phase.

[Tzupy]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell.

There is a bullish setup in 6h and 12h MACD, probably 1 or 2 higher highs are going to happen in the next 2 - 3 weeks (if the market keeps current pace). And IMO that will be the top and a bull trap.
If this will unfold as I expect, about 2 weeks from now I'll post a bearish chart, with a later bottom around 2500$. Still, the weekly PSAR might flip to bullish next week, so not all is bearish.

Weekly PSAR flipped to bullish today, so the market is moving a bit faster than I expected. So IMO it will top sooner, then correct and months later possibly make a lower low than 3122$.

[freedomgo]

Looking more & more likely as time passes that we have seen the bottom. I think ghe bear market is over. What we’re witnessing now is the accumulation phase.

Though price have gone down again, I guess it will not hit another bottom as we already reached it.
Sudden dump is not new in crypto, BTC might be down but slowly it's stable now, next thing would happen is we will see it rising again.
Everytime it's done, it's always nice to accumulate and then sell it when BTC rise again.

[joy99]

There is more to go below the current price but I don't think it will be below the recorded 2019 low. The activties of the day traders was over done and for that matter, a lot of people got panic and sold as well that caused the sharp drop but I do not think this will continue for long. I am hopeful that we shall soon test the $4.1K again.

[LUCKMCFLY]

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

[susila_bai]

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

Current market is keeping $3000 price as bottom and moving up so i think now it wont go down and it will go up but not fully but the market movement will be up and down. so what you are telling about going low below will bring more panic and even it can go below $2500 so i think now market wont go down below $3000.

[mirakal]

There is more to go below the current price but I don't think it will be below the recorded 2019 low. The activties of the day traders was over done and for that matter, a lot of people got panic and sold as well that caused the sharp drop but I do not think this will continue for long. I am hopeful that we shall soon test the $4.1K again.

We have different prediction, I don't see a chance that BTC will ever go down, I am more optimistic on its growth
and I believe in the second try we will see a pump. Whatever the day traders do, they cannot stop people who will unite in pushing the price up, I've seen the optimism of the people and their will to end this long bear period.

[BrewMaster]

i never understand why some people think the opposite of "not shooting up" is equal to "crashing down and setting a new low"!
we have seen this hundreds of times already in bitcoin and millions of times in other markets. not going up is just that, price doesn't go up! in order to drop down and go down to something like $2k we similarly need a huge momentum in that direction which is not going to magically happen just because price didn't reach $5k!

[exstasie]

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

Current market is keeping $3000 price as bottom and moving up so i think now it wont go down

The same logic applied at $6,000. And it even worked for a while. But then we crashed to $3K.

I'm with LUCKMCFLY, in fact I'd take it a step further and say I expect a test of $3K and lower. From a Wyckoff perspective, it's the most likely course even in an accumulation bottom scenario.

Sadly, the heavily bullish sentiment tells me we're going lower. I'm still hoping for another leg higher to sell into but nothing about the current chart or sentiment screams "bull market" at all.

[BUK2016]

In my opinion, we have seeing the bottom level for this year and such level never be witness before the end of this year again. And if you are yet to invest, is never too late to invest as we all know that the future is greater than what we seeing at the moment.

[Wind_FURY]

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

Current market is keeping $3000 price as bottom and moving up so i think now it wont go down

The same logic applied at $6,000. And it even worked for a while. But then we crashed to $3K.

I'm with LUCKMCFLY, in fact I'd take it a step further and say I expect a test of $3K and lower. From a Wyckoff perspective, it's the most likely course even in an accumulation bottom scenario.

Sadly, the heavily bullish sentiment tells me we're going lower. I'm still hoping for another leg higher to sell into but nothing about the current chart or sentiment screams "bull market" at all.

But the market has a funny way of making you believe one thing, and then it would do the other. When the majority was so sure that $6,000 was the "bottom", it crashed to $3,000. When the majority is so sure that $3,000 and lower will be tested, you will wait, but witness it climb to $4,000, then $5,000, and so on.

I have one word for it. "Whalecumulators". The plebs have no chance.

[deisik]

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

Current market is keeping $3000 price as bottom and moving up so i think now it wont go down

The same logic applied at $6,000. And it even worked for a while. But then we crashed to $3K.

I'm with LUCKMCFLY, in fact I'd take it a step further and say I expect a test of $3K and lower. From a Wyckoff perspective, it's the most likely course even in an accumulation bottom scenario.

Sadly, the heavily bullish sentiment tells me we're going lower. I'm still hoping for another leg higher to sell into but nothing about the current chart or sentiment screams "bull market" at all

But the market has a funny way of making you believe one thing, and then it would do the other. When the majority was so sure that $6,000 was the "bottom", it crashed to $3,000. When the majority is so sure that $3,000 and lower will be tested, you will wait, but witness it climb to $4,000, then $5,000, and so on

It's a better idea to just follow the trend

Without even thinking or blinking twice. And if there is no trend, you should just sit and wait until there is (and then follow it). Apart from that, an old adage says that even if you are going against the crowd, you are still with the crowd. In other words, just believing in something which you believe is not what the trading crowd as a whole believes in doesn't necessarily make you right and them wrong (or any other combination thereof)