Chart first
Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA
Chart > Weekly
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BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .
Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)
This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.
however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish
so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.
The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.
note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.
also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts 2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.
Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.