BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s)

[alyssa85]

 Chart first




Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA

Chart > Weekly
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BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.

The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.

note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.


also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts  2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.

Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.

[mikeywith]

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.

it makes sense to wait for a stronger single, i have been a bit aggressive with my trading, differently not reckless, just not as conservative, in fact looking at smaller time frames you can start seeing some divergence,  it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.

Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.

thanks pal, hope you made use of it too, stay tuned more to come 

[STT]

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal.

Its generally a better idea to wait for that signal and join the trend, the decline that is.    Being too early is the same as being wrong, sure I heard that before a few times.    In trading terms thats correct but scaling into a short here, I generally agree with because I know I'll miss the precise point and I havent the time to be watching always.   I'll be distracted or busy elsewhere, its just the way it always goes.    Plus I really think BTC goes in 4 stages to a move or trend change as its more globally traded then traditional markets, 24hr is roughly 4 sets of a 6 hour trading 'day' some of which overlap.    Maybe Forex resembles that better

[BitHodler]

it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.

I kept waiting as long as I could, but we're near the important $100 billion market cap, which for me is reason enough to short, and I did. I managed to settle my short at $5500 and some change.

Could it go up a little more? Sure, but I don't see any reason for that with how much we have gone up already and the resistance we will face around the $6000 mark. 2x leverage is conservative enough to avoid getting wiped out.

Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes. I at least have put my money where my mouth is.

[exstasie]

Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes.

In a broad sense yes, sentiment is too positive to indicate bull market conditions. The start of bull markets are usually characterized by "wall of worry" sentiment and general disbelief about rising prices. So it's likely we'll see a sizeable correction sooner than later.

I'm not sure it's coming quite yet though. After consolidating for several days and making new local highs overnight, we just triggered a new short term uptrend.

Shorts are also rising considerably on Bitfinex: they're up 40% over the past week. Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.

[mikeywith]

I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is  very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.

[vit05]

Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.

What site do you use to view the funding rate? I use tugWar to see the short-and-long short-term dispute, but I only know Bitmex itself to see the funding rate.

[BitHodler]

I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is  very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.

Turns out I indeed did the right thing. I'm holding my short open because I expect the price to plummet further. I'm not sure how realistic sub $4000 levels are, but if that's going to happen anyway I won't complain.

As for the fomo buyers, people don't know what risk management is. They jump in and out with everything they got, and more often than not with ridiculous leverage multipliers. Gamblers eventually pay the price, always.

[mikeywith]

we got to as low as 4960$ on some exchanges, that's about 10% from entry, you sure might have a different strategy , but mine consist of small potions, where i lock in profit along the way to secure the lot as whole, so should price go against me for whatever opened potions, the profit from the once i closed will cover that up , this indeed lowers my potential profit but given the fact that i have been a bit aggressive with my entries, it only makes sense to be conservative with my exists.


and by the way, i started a new topic regarding the possible fall to 3800$ > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5136199.msg50774916#msg50774916

i don't want to confuse anyone since the  tittle of this one says something "nice" which is differently not the case for the current situation, at least to most people.