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Author Topic: China mining decision May 7  (Read 311 times)
fullhdpixel
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May 06, 2019, 08:22:49 PM
 #41

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
I don’t see it having any negative effect on bitcoin in any way, I understand it will affect the hash rate but it will only make bitcoin supply become limited for the main time and as BTC supplies becomes limited, the demand becomes higher, which we all know that it is the natural things we need to come to play for bitcoin price to really hit very high.

For now, we have too many miners of bitcoin, making the supply higher; I think this step of china to ban miners is really a great effect. There are other countries that miners can mine crypto from if the need arises.

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May 06, 2019, 09:41:04 PM
 #42

The biggest point here that could result with something slightly bad for us is the fact that for a few days a lot of hash rate will be gone and until next difficulty adjusting period the transactions will be slower and more expensive, just for a while and nothing big.

After that the difficulty will be readjusted and we will continue like nothing happened and we won't even care about it, as long as price doesn't react to that small changes for a few days then we won't even realize china banned mining at all, literally go as our day like nothing happened without noticing. Considering we have managed to work segwit into the code and now lightning network is used in many places mining isn't even that important right now since people can send/receive money much more easily than what we used to do before those two.


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WinslowIII
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May 06, 2019, 10:11:06 PM
 #43

The biggest point here that could result with something slightly bad for us is the fact that for a few days a lot of hash rate will be gone and until next difficulty adjusting period the transactions will be slower and more expensive, just for a while and nothing big.

After that the difficulty will be readjusted and we will continue like nothing happened and we won't even care about it, as long as price doesn't react to that small changes for a few days then we won't even realize china banned mining at all, literally go as our day like nothing happened without noticing. Considering we have managed to work segwit into the code and now lightning network is used in many places mining isn't even that important right now since people can send/receive money much more easily than what we used to do before those two.

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?
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May 06, 2019, 10:36:24 PM
 #44

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?

That's not how it works.

Let's say you are hypothetically right about 70% of the hash rate coming from China. Existing non-Chinese miners would reap a much larger share of total coins mined, but due to the huge drop in hash rate, it would be over a much longer time period than before. The drastic drop in hash rate means much fewer blocks being mined (much less than one block per 10 minutes), thus much less block rewards hitting the market.

The bigger fear about such a hash rate drop is the blockchain would grind to snail's pace and transactions couldn't be reliably confirmed. However, all of this would eventually correct when the difficult gets readjusted.

The initial headlines about some sort of national ban would have the biggest effect on price. It would trigger waiting sellers to dump and create some self-reinforcing panic in the market. I don't think mining fundamentals would change very much though. Much much less than 70% of the hash rate is coming from China. The miner exodus from China has been going on for years now.

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May 06, 2019, 10:55:20 PM
 #45

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?

That's not how it works.

Let's say you are hypothetically right about 70% of the hash rate coming from China. Existing non-Chinese miners would reap a much larger share of total coins mined, but due to the huge drop in hash rate, it would be over a much longer time period than before. The drastic drop in hash rate means much fewer blocks being mined (much less than one block per 10 minutes), thus much less block rewards hitting the market.

The bigger fear about such a hash rate drop is the blockchain would grind to snail's pace and transactions couldn't be reliably confirmed. However, all of this would eventually correct when the difficult gets readjusted.

The initial headlines about some sort of national ban would have the biggest effect on price. It would trigger waiting sellers to dump and create some self-reinforcing panic in the market. I don't think mining fundamentals would change very much though. Much much less than 70% of the hash rate is coming from China. The miner exodus from China has been going on for years now.

I'm literally stunned by the ignorance I find on this subforum. Dude, 12.5 coins gets mined every 10 minutes regardless of the number of miners. The more miners the fewer rewards. The fewer miners the larger rewards. JESUS.
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May 07, 2019, 06:28:39 AM
 #46

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

Let's see how it goes, if it has 80% chance then we might as well see some huge impact on the price on May 7th. But I honestly believed that this sort of ban from China is FUD because they know that lately the price is going up. So it's somewhat sketchy as to why they suddenly decides to ban it when the market is already on the road to recovery.

What are you talking about? the committee was assembled weeks if not months ago to look at the situation. For you to say they are all of a sudden looking to ban crypto and it's fud is really ignorant, they already banned selling crypto for yuan and icos a year ago.
I don't know why I bother with relevant issues on this subforum, nobody seems to have a goddamn clue what's happening all they do is look and react to the current price.

Lol, but can you see the timing though? If they have assembled weeks or months ago then why now? So I don't know who is ignorant here, everyone here has clue as to what is going on with China and their sudden U-turn, don't you start people calling people with their utter ignorance in this community.

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May 07, 2019, 06:37:26 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #47

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?

That's not how it works.

Let's say you are hypothetically right about 70% of the hash rate coming from China. Existing non-Chinese miners would reap a much larger share of total coins mined, but due to the huge drop in hash rate, it would be over a much longer time period than before. The drastic drop in hash rate means much fewer blocks being mined (much less than one block per 10 minutes), thus much less block rewards hitting the market.

The bigger fear about such a hash rate drop is the blockchain would grind to snail's pace and transactions couldn't be reliably confirmed. However, all of this would eventually correct when the difficult gets readjusted.

The initial headlines about some sort of national ban would have the biggest effect on price. It would trigger waiting sellers to dump and create some self-reinforcing panic in the market. I don't think mining fundamentals would change very much though. Much much less than 70% of the hash rate is coming from China. The miner exodus from China has been going on for years now.

I'm literally stunned by the ignorance I find on this subforum. Dude, 12.5 coins gets mined every 10 minutes regardless of the number of miners. The more miners the fewer rewards. The fewer miners the larger rewards. JESUS.

He is not saying the block reward or mining time will change. He is simply stating the fact that if tomorrow 70% of the hashrate went offline, then it would take longer to find blocks because 70% of the hashrate would be gone.

Hence block times would be around 2.5 times as long to find, so the amount of coins released into the market would be less until the difficulty finally adjusted which would take a while.

Would probably take 2 or 3 cycles for the proper difficulty to adjust and each adjustment would take over a month or so. And this would cause a backlog most likely and would cause panic in the markets.

If it was ETH then it wouldn't have much of a drastic effect because it readjusts the algo every block, unlike Bitcoin where its every 2 weeks.

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May 07, 2019, 07:36:57 AM
 #48

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?

That's not how it works.

Let's say you are hypothetically right about 70% of the hash rate coming from China. Existing non-Chinese miners would reap a much larger share of total coins mined, but due to the huge drop in hash rate, it would be over a much longer time period than before. The drastic drop in hash rate means much fewer blocks being mined (much less than one block per 10 minutes), thus much less block rewards hitting the market.

The bigger fear about such a hash rate drop is the blockchain would grind to snail's pace and transactions couldn't be reliably confirmed. However, all of this would eventually correct when the difficult gets readjusted.

The initial headlines about some sort of national ban would have the biggest effect on price. It would trigger waiting sellers to dump and create some self-reinforcing panic in the market. I don't think mining fundamentals would change very much though. Much much less than 70% of the hash rate is coming from China. The miner exodus from China has been going on for years now.

I'm literally stunned by the ignorance I find on this subforum. Dude, 12.5 coins gets mined every 10 minutes regardless of the number of miners.

Right, so if 70% of the hash rate instantly disappears, the network will magically just keep churning out blocks every 10 minutes? Roll Eyes

You should really consider learning how Bitcoin works before calling people ignorant. Anyone with a basic understanding of Bitcoin mining knows what you just said is completely retarded.

The more miners the fewer rewards. The fewer miners the larger rewards. JESUS.

And when blocks are being found 3x as slowly, how does that factor into your equation?

The market would likely be panicking due to fundamental network failures anyway. Miner supply is a total afterthought!

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May 07, 2019, 07:38:38 AM
 #49

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?
Chinese miners are contributing immense to the development of mining industry and I think the decision to stop mining in China is going to affect Alot of things and it might turn out to be positive effect or the other way.  I really did not understand why they should do that now  but I think bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has had wost attack than this before and bitcoin over come them all.  We just needs to take the worst scenario that will happen but things will get better after then.
bucciarati
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May 07, 2019, 08:12:17 AM
 #50

last time China took an official negative stance towards bitcoin operations was second half 2017 ...

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FanEagle
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May 07, 2019, 09:43:17 AM
 #51

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

Let's see how it goes, if it has 80% chance then we might as well see some huge impact on the price on May 7th. But I honestly believed that this sort of ban from China is FUD because they know that lately the price is going up. So it's somewhat sketchy as to why they suddenly decides to ban it when the market is already on the road to recovery.
It may not be FUD because china like to control things coming out of their country and anything that they virtually do not have full control of, they might not want to really give it a full support, but like you said, time will tell, by today ending, we will know if there will be any pronunciation or not.

If it is true that something like this exist, I am sure there will also be serious negotiation going on within these miners and china government and this might lead to china fully understanding what the whole cryptocurrency is and pick interest in adopting it, let us just hope that whatever decision china makes, is that which will favor crypto and not go against.
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May 07, 2019, 10:05:20 AM
 #52

Decisions made by the state of China will be very important because it can affect the market cryptocurrencies globally.
As we know that the country of China is the biggest contributor to the miner, so whatever the decision will have a significant impact.
Hopefully the decisions made have a positive impact and don't even negatively affect the development of cryptocureencies.
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May 07, 2019, 08:29:42 PM
 #53

Just remember that if China bans mining all through out their country some of their companies might be affected. For those of you who don't know Bitmain and Innosilicon one of the leading manufacturers of mining equipment in the world are domestic companies in China, if they ban mining then this manufacturers might set up shop on other countries who are interested in mining. It will be China's lost and they maybe need to think twice before doing anything like this. For the OP before you even think about BTC's price crashing you need to consider the fact that if the hashrate fell the level of difficulty will also go down, this is sort of the way on balancing out the loss hashrate in the process if mining will ever be banned in China.

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May 14, 2019, 08:53:51 AM
 #54

Because of subject title I was searching on China mining decision supposed to be done mai 7, but I didn't found news about that

I just red in this CoinDesk article  https://www.coindesk.com/chinas-economic-planning-agency-labels-bitcoin-mining-an-undesirable-industry
that mai 7 was just the end of comments

The public will have until May 7 to share feedback on proposed amendments, after which the final version will be published and become effective.

However, it remains to be seen whether the revised guide, if still including such categorization of bitcoin mining in its final form, will have any impact on bitcoin mining in China, since the catalog itself serves as a general direction for future development.


So I suppose final amendment publication still not done. Any one have some news in chinese ?
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