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Author Topic: Merit source observations  (Read 229 times)
tranthidung
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September 02, 2019, 11:22:35 AM
Last edit: September 03, 2019, 02:21:56 PM by tranthidung
Merited by bones261 (2), The Pharmacist (2), DdmrDdmr (2), 1miau (1)
 #1

Many months ago, on 24th January 2018, merit appeared in the forum, as airdropped merits (and sMerits) for grandfather accounts, then it has become a gift for good posters.
There is no benefits to beg for merits as well as merit sources, because merit beggars might get negative trust or bad feedback in return.

In the thread, I publish observations on merit source growth over months.
For more details, there are some threads to read:
Merit & new rank requirement
Enhanced newbie restrictions & requirements
One year anniversary of merit system
Merit source growth history, if you know it, please help me (I appreciated all kindly help from users in that thread).

Merit source stats page



Notes:
- Update will be made in last post, not in OP.
- If you find something, or discover incorrect data, please let me know.
- Date presents in the format: dd/mm/yyyy.
- Dates present in the dataset might not exactly the day when total merit sources reach those figures, they are just dates recorded arbitrarily by users.
- The first datapoint (24/1/2018), I got the smerits at 8125 smerits (it might be incorrect), from that post

Each source has a different limit per 30 days. The current average is 185, and in total up to 8125 merit could be created per month.
Nevertheless, I think it is correct, because about 4 hours after that post, theymos made this one, in which we see there was still 35 total merit sources



Dataset:
Code:
. list id day month2 year date meritsource smerit, abb(30)

     +-------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date   meritsource   smerit |
     |-------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    24        1   2018   24jan2018            35     8125 |
  2. |  2    26        1   2018   26jan2018            49     9025 |
  3. |  3     1        3   2018   01mar2018            57    11975 |
  4. |  4    12        3   2018   12mar2018            77    17650 |
  5. |  5    22        3   2018   22mar2018            80    17800 |
     |-------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    18        5   2018   18may2018            80    18500 |
  7. |  7     6        7   2018   06jul2018            82    18900 |
  8. |  8    11        7   2018   11jul2018            83    19100 |
  9. |  9    17        9   2018   17sep2018           120    23045 |
 10. | 10    17       11   2018   17nov2018           119    22045 |
     |-------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    22       12   2018   22dec2018           120    22055 |
 12. | 12     5        1   2019   05jan2019           123    20735 |
 13. | 13     6        2   2019   06feb2019           122    20835 |
 14. | 14    15        3   2019   15mar2019           130    20605 |
 15. | 15    27        6   2019   27jun2019           131    21045 |
     +-------------------------------------------------------------+

Time series plots

Combined plot
Note:
- To make combined plot looks better, I created a new variable, meritsource100, that equals meritsource * 100


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The Pharmacist
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September 02, 2019, 12:48:52 PM
 #2

OP, this is good data to see, but I'm confused as to whether the sMerit is what's held by the merit sources or what the sources have distributed.  I looked for the answer to that in your post but perhaps I'm missing something.

Looks like Theymos hasn't been adding a lot of new merit sources in the past year--I sort of figured as much, since I hadn't seen that many applications and hadn't heard about new sources being added.  But at least there are more now than there were last September, and since Meta hasn't been flooded with "how I earn meritz" threads lately, I'm assuming the situation isn't too bad.  When newbies are constantly whining about how they're not earning merits, you know there aren't enough being circulated.

Might be good to overlay those graphs as well, but either way props for posting the data.

tranthidung
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September 02, 2019, 01:05:25 PM
Last edit: September 02, 2019, 01:16:14 PM by tranthidung
 #3

OP, this is good data to see, but I'm confused as to whether the sMerit is what's held by the merit sources or what the sources have distributed.  I looked for the answer to that in your post but perhaps I'm missing something.
My dataset only presents total merit sources and total smerits allocated to all those sources per each 30 days.
You can observe it there: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=merit;stats=sources. For now, we have:
Code:
There are 131 merit sources with a total merit generation of up to 21045 sMerit per 30 days
For your question, I do think @DdmrDdmr can give you an answer, but I don't know it will satisfy your curiousity or not. Because I believe he might only give you raw figures, and of course not exactly what you wanted.
He can give you total merits/ smerits earned, and distributed of each sources, but it is difficult to screen and differentiate between smerits get from earned merits and smerits get as sources from theymos.
Even DdmrDdmr can get it, he might not publicly disclose because core ideas of theymos is not give merit beggars more details to annoying begging merit sources.
Quote
Looks like Theymos hasn't been adding a lot of new merit sources in the past year--I sort of figured as much, since I hadn't seen that many applications and hadn't heard about new sources being added.  But at least there are more now than there were last September, and since Meta hasn't been flooded with "how I earn meritz" threads lately, I'm assuming the situation isn't too bad.  When newbies are constantly whining about how they're not earning merits, you know there aren't enough being circulated.
As I know of, theymos pay more attention on merit source application in local boards, recent months.
Quote
Might be good to overlay those graphs as well, but either way props for posting the data.
I actually made it with an initial OP, but there are huge gaps between to variables, meritsource and smerits, in hundreds and thousands, so combined plot looks not good.

Ok, fine!
Note:
- To make combined plot looks better, I created a new variable, meritsource100, that equals meritsource * 100

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DdmrDdmr
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September 02, 2019, 01:32:35 PM
 #4

<…>
I don’t really keep track of who the Merit Sources are, although @Coin-1 does a pretty good job to identify the majority of them in his thread (see [TOP-200] The most generous users giving merits). Not all have been detected though (specially the smaller or most recent additions that earn merits per se).

I therefore do not track nor try to infer each one’s allocation and how much of it they spend, although on an individual basis, you can get a rough idea by taking a look at their Sent Merit on the Personal Summary (simply type the username and press enter).

tranthidung
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September 04, 2019, 04:09:53 AM
Last edit: September 04, 2019, 04:26:40 AM by tranthidung
 #5

I don’t really keep track of who the Merit Sources are
< ... >
I therefore do not track nor try to infer each one’s allocation and how much of it they spend, although on an individual basis
Thank you for your reply, that gives detailed answer for @The Pharmacist's question, but honestly I don't have interest about those things. Because it is not my business, and I think we just let merit sources do their works. There is no good reasons to follow their works as sources, because they actually good users / sources, and know how to do their works, and months passed since the last remove of merit sources (one or two) due to abusements or misuses of merits from sources; not from their own request like @Vod.

Dataset in OP is good enough to give us an overview on merit sources and available smerits from them per month.
With current statistics:
- Total users (includes inactive ones too) at 2659437, due to Statistics center
- Total smerits for all sources per 30 days at 21045
There are 131 merit sources with a total merit generation of up to 21045 sMerit per 30 days
It means within each 30 days, one user can get around 0.008 merit.
Code:
. di 21045/2659437
.00791333
However, if we assume that there are only 1 percent of those users ( ~ 26595 = 2659437/100) are active and good ones, each of them will get nearly 0.8 merits per 30 days from all sources.
Code:
. di 21045/(2659437/100)
.7913329
Yes, this is estimated one good users can get from merit sources, but they can earn more from non-merit-source users (with above assumptions). I don't believe the forum has around 27k active and good users.
If you can, please scrap figure on total active merited users last 30 days (active merited means receive above 2 merits).

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DdmrDdmr
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September 04, 2019, 08:28:07 AM
 #6

<…> If you can, please scrap figure on total active merited users last 30 days (active merited means receive above 2 merits).<…>
Active is subject to multiple definitions. For example, @vod makes it 149.405, being that of the count of all profiles that have logged in within the last three months.

Your definition would be that of merited >= 2 merits gained in the last 30 days, and results in 1.145 distinct profiles (31/07/2019 .. early morning of 30/08/2019), with the following distribution:
Code:
nMerits nUsers
1 727 (not included in the 1.145 above reported total)
2 285
3 148
4 91
5 93
6 45
7 48
8 33
9 28
10 31
11 16
12 20
13 21
14 20
15 23
16 11
17 11
18 7
19 9
20 7
21 10
22 8
23 7
24 5
25 9
26 3
27 6
28 3
29 6
30 6
31 6
32 6
33 3
34 5
35 8
36 7
37 3
38 1
39 3
40 1
41 3
42 3
43 2
44 3
45 1
46 6
47 5
48 3
49 5
50 3
51 2
52 1
53 2
54 3
56 1
57 3
58 1
59 1
61 1
62 1
63 2
64 2
65 1
66 1
67 3
69 2
70 1
71 1
73 1
78 1
79 1
80 1
81 2
83 1
84 1
85 2
89 1
90 1
92 1
99 1
100 1
105 1
111 2
114 1
116 1
117 1
118 1
119 1
145 1
155 1
176 1
186 1
187 1
222 1

tranthidung
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September 04, 2019, 08:43:40 AM
 #7

Active is subject to multiple definitions. For example, @vod makes it 149.405, being that of the count of all profiles that have logged in within the last three months.

Your definition would be that of merited >= 2 merits gained in the last 30 days, and results in 1.145 distinct profiles (31/07/2019 .. early morning of 30/08/2019), with the following distribution:
It is just an assumption to see how merit circulated in the forum, and do current smerits allocation to merit sources per month enough for active and good users or not. Sticking with this assumption, and your simple analysis result, we can see that there are around 18 merits for each active and good users per 30 days, only from 131 merit sources. Some users might earn more than 18 merits per month, some others might earn less. It is not correct estimation, because there are so many bias factors, but at least from the estimation, I do think current sMerit supply from merit sources is enough for good users to rank up. The rest thing totally depends on their works.
Code:
. di 21045/1145
18.379913
Interesting finding that with the assumption (actively posting, and received >= 2 merits per 30 days), there are only 0.43% of forum users (at 2659437) are active, and good ones.  It makes me shocked, honestly. Cheesy
Code:
. di 1145/2659437*100
.04305423

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