TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 09:19:22 AM |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
Polls are the only way to figure out the opinion of a large number of people without asking every single person. A single poll can have quite a wide margin of error, but when you consider the results of many polls taken frequently they provide a pretty accurate representation on what people are thinking and how certain events are affecting their opinion. As long as there aren't any major flaws in your method of collection, it's just math. And if there are flaws in your method of collection, it will become apparent over time. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already.
Those weren't polls. They were models based on data collected from multiple polls. An electoral college model would have to figure out how to calculate the results of several different polls in each of the 50 states and then consider every scenario. It's way more complicated than "a poll". Most of the reputable national polls for the 2016 general were actually within .5 % of the actual result. And while there were a bunch of states that Trump won that most of the polls had Clinton winning, they were mostly pretty close calls. Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
It amazes me how many people think they are better at determining the opinions of millions of people all over the country better than any of the well established Political Polling Organizations that have a proven track record of being very accurate over a period of decades. Also worth noting, Don't let Trump fool you. pollsters really don't give a fuck about trying to help or hurt Trump by cooking the numbers. They are in the business of being accurate. The most accurate polls are the ones that get the most funding. In case it's not obvious, Trump isn't attacking them for not being accurate, he's attacking them because they don't have him winning. This is the definition of bias.
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Viper1
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November 05, 2019, 09:35:14 AM |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
Polls are the only way to figure out the opinion of a large number of people without asking every single person. A single poll can have quite a wide margin of error, but when you consider the results of many polls taken frequently they provide a pretty accurate representation on what people are thinking and how certain events are affecting their opinion. As long as there aren't any major flaws in your method of collection, it's just math. And if there are flaws in your method of collection, it will become apparent over time. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already.
Those weren't polls. They were models based on data collected from multiple polls. An electoral college model would have to figure out how to calculate the results of several different polls in each of the 50 states and then consider every scenario. It's way more complicated than "a poll". Most of the reputable national polls for the 2016 general were actually within .5 % of the actual result. And while there were a bunch of states that Trump won that most of the polls had Clinton winning, they were mostly pretty close calls. Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
It amazes me how many people think they are better at determining the opinions of millions of people all over the country better than any of the well established Political Polling Organizations that have a proven track record of being very accurate over a period of decades. Also worth noting, Don't let Trump fool you. pollsters really don't give a fuck about trying to help or hurt Trump by cooking the numbers. They are in the business of being accurate. The most accurate polls are the ones that get the most funding. In case it's not obvious, Trump isn't attacking them for not being accurate, he's attacking them because they don't have him winning. This is the definition of bias. Yep. And you have to look at the big picture. When I watched Moore's movie and then heard how Clinton was being warned and told to get her ass to the states she lost I knew she was in trouble despite the polls. And then watching her and her surrogates preaching morality while Trump was talking economy, that even more so made me feel like she was in trouble. Shocking given "It's the economy stupid" and that voters "vote with their pocket books". They all should have known better but got caught up in the "outrage" culture. The Comey thing was just the nail in the coffin as there was simply not enough time to recover. The Biden polls are "interesting". If you listen to the media you would think Warren was potentially pull ahead etc. But a little while ago I went and looked at polls from a bunch of states and he was ahead in most of them and well ahead. But of course that can change. It's far to early to give much weigh to polls. How much money you can raise is far more important at this point as that's a better gauge right now.
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TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 10:35:25 AM |
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Joe has to make it to the primary without springing a leak or molesting another child on camera first.
Muh Biden is creepy! Meanwhile, Trump on his daughter posing naked in playboy and other situations: “It would be really disappointing — not really — but it would depend on what’s inside the magazine. I don’t think Ivanka would do that, although she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.” “You know who’s one of the great beauties of the world, according to everybody? And I helped create her. Ivanka. My daughter, Ivanka. She’s 6 feet tall, she’s got the best body.” "“Yeah, she’s really something, and what a beauty, that one. If I weren’t happily married and, ya know, her father . . . ” “Is it wrong to be more sexually attracted to your own daughter than your wife?” ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F0c645d74893fa2b6cedd2df666cacb9d.jpg&t=665&c=jTC1Uxx5s9z0cg)
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Spendulus
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November 05, 2019, 12:16:08 PM |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
The poll isn't about the general election, its about the primary election. Joe has to make it to the primary without springing a leak or molesting another child on camera first. I like how your reason why Biden's legacy is over just pivoted from the whole Ukraine ordeal to "springing a leak" (whatever that means) or "molesting another child on camera" (a thing that never happened). So what if he's a bit touchy. In this day and age, its standard behavior for a presidential candidate to boast about grabbing women by the pussy. Even though the conspiratards have convinced me to rally around Creepy Uncle Joe in support against their fuckery, I would be thrilled if Sanders actually became the nominee after toasting Biden and Warren in the debates. That may spell the end of the "Biden Legacy." It certainly won't be the Ukraine ordeal. Trump's legacy, on the other hand, currently hinges on it. The differential treatment of Biden and Trump re women does seem interesting. Biden is Creepy Joe without actually molesting any, and Trump blurts out what a sexy daughter he has and who wouldn't want to do her? But going back a bit, I would bet you don't recall what the editors of Penthouse said about Bill Clinton. Praising him, and suggesting everyone vote for him, the magazine editorial ended... "It's about time we have a man in the White House with balls, who fucks."
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TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 12:21:45 PM |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
The poll isn't about the general election, its about the primary election. Joe has to make it to the primary without springing a leak or molesting another child on camera first. I like how your reason why Biden's legacy is over just pivoted from the whole Ukraine ordeal to "springing a leak" (whatever that means) or "molesting another child on camera" (a thing that never happened). So what if he's a bit touchy. In this day and age, its standard behavior for a presidential candidate to boast about grabbing women by the pussy. Even though the conspiratards have convinced me to rally around Creepy Uncle Joe in support against their fuckery, I would be thrilled if Sanders actually became the nominee after toasting Biden and Warren in the debates. That may spell the end of the "Biden Legacy." It certainly won't be the Ukraine ordeal. Trump's legacy, on the other hand, currently hinges on it. The differential treatment of Biden and Trump re women does seem interesting. Biden is Creepy Joe without actually molesting any, and Trump blurts out what a sexy daughter he has and who wouldn't want to do her? But going back a bit, I would bet you don't recall what the editors of Penthouse said about Bill Clinton. Praising him, and suggesting everyone vote for him, the magazine editorial ended... "It's about time we have a man in the White House with balls, who fucks." That's ironic. He never even fucked Lewinsky and only finished once out of like 10 blow jobs.
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Spendulus
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November 05, 2019, 12:58:52 PM |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
The poll isn't about the general election, its about the primary election. Joe has to make it to the primary without springing a leak or molesting another child on camera first. I like how your reason why Biden's legacy is over just pivoted from the whole Ukraine ordeal to "springing a leak" (whatever that means) or "molesting another child on camera" (a thing that never happened). So what if he's a bit touchy. In this day and age, its standard behavior for a presidential candidate to boast about grabbing women by the pussy. Even though the conspiratards have convinced me to rally around Creepy Uncle Joe in support against their fuckery, I would be thrilled if Sanders actually became the nominee after toasting Biden and Warren in the debates. That may spell the end of the "Biden Legacy." It certainly won't be the Ukraine ordeal. Trump's legacy, on the other hand, currently hinges on it. The differential treatment of Biden and Trump re women does seem interesting. Biden is Creepy Joe without actually molesting any, and Trump blurts out what a sexy daughter he has and who wouldn't want to do her? But going back a bit, I would bet you don't recall what the editors of Penthouse said about Bill Clinton. Praising him, and suggesting everyone vote for him, the magazine editorial ended... "It's about time we have a man in the White House with balls, who fucks." That's ironic. He never even fucked Lewinsky and only finished once out of like 10 blow jobs. Reagan was called "the Teflon man" because of the way various attacks on him or his actions seemed to just slide right off, and not affect his political numbers. It does seem Trump has some similar capability, doesn't it? It's certainly POSSIBLE for one person to be creepy and not abuse women, and another to not be creepy but outlandish, like Trump's "grab their pussies" comment. Well, let's just say we were picking someone to vote for. I certainly wouldn't pick the CREEPY one, so if that was a label successfully impaled on Biden, he loses.
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Spendulus
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November 05, 2019, 03:19:13 PM |
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But going back a bit, I would bet you don't recall what the editors of Penthouse said about Bill Clinton. Praising him, and suggesting everyone vote for him, the magazine editorial ended... "It's about time we have a man in the White House with balls, who fucks."
Ah, but Democrats (Liberals) are expected to be sexually liberated and/or deviants, so really, being promiscuous sexually active is a good quality to have in a candidate for us. I truly sympathize with your situation now, having semi-Autistic Trump blurting true gems about how hot his daughter Ivanka is, while you guys are stuck with Dead Dick Biden.
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TECSHARE (OP)
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November 05, 2019, 07:01:26 PM Last edit: November 05, 2019, 08:11:30 PM by TECSHARE |
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Polls, always with the polls. Polls are easily manipulated. It amazes me how many of you forgot all the polls with 90%+ saying Hillary was going to win already. Keep dreaming, the Democrats don't have anyone with a chance in hell of beating Trump.
The poll isn't about the general election, its about the primary election. Joe has to make it to the primary without springing a leak or molesting another child on camera first. I like how your reason why Biden's legacy is over just pivoted from the whole Ukraine ordeal to "springing a leak" (whatever that means) or "molesting another child on camera" (a thing that never happened). So what if he's a bit touchy. In this day and age, its standard behavior for a presidential candidate to boast about grabbing women by the pussy. Even though the conspiratards have convinced me to rally around Creepy Uncle Joe in support against their fuckery, I would be thrilled if Sanders actually became the nominee after toasting Biden and Warren in the debates. That may spell the end of the "Biden Legacy." It certainly won't be the Ukraine ordeal. Trump's legacy, on the other hand, currently hinges on it. Actually I was referring to his poor physical condition with his eyes randomly popping blood vessels, his teeth falling out, and him losing his mind. "A bit touchy" you say? There are whole compilations of videos of him groping small children and women making them visibly uncomfortable. These aren't even the long versions. But you are right, lets break out some more NO U!!!'s and project back on like 20 year old comments said in private, lets forget the public pattern of on camera molestation of your guy, because after all the end justify the means don't they? Biden's legacy is over, but unlike the constant fraudulent accusations against Trump, real criminal investigations are in private and take time. You keep fantasizing that any of these rejects has a chance in a fair vote. That is why it has been nonstop Russia Gate leading into a fraudulent impeachment all based on nothing, because that is the only chance they have of beating Trump is to use the tools designed to protect this nation from corruption as political weapons. If you think the American people are going to stand by and let that happen without a response, you are even more out of it than Joe Biden. Just keep reading them polls, it will make you feel better until its all over, just like last time.
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TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 07:40:08 PM |
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So the guy that donated $1m to the Trump campaign and was then picked for Ambassador to Europe just amended his testimony from last week. Trump will not be pleased. “I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Ooops... ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F653bd8ea52d3d3eb83ce33da2121bfb5.png&t=665&c=P74_Fa6ri4qzbw)
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TECSHARE (OP)
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November 05, 2019, 07:56:20 PM |
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So the guy that donated $1m to the Trump campaign and was then picked for Ambassador to Europe just amended his testimony from last week. Trump will not be pleased. “I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Ooops... ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F653bd8ea52d3d3eb83ce33da2121bfb5.png&t=665&c=P74_Fa6ri4qzbw) No source of any kind, sounds reliable. Also certainly doesn't sound like a horribly fumbled and failed attempt at entrapment either.
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TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 08:35:18 PM |
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So the guy that donated $1m to the Trump campaign and was then picked for Ambassador to Europe just amended his testimony from last week. Trump will not be pleased. “I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Ooops... ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F653bd8ea52d3d3eb83ce33da2121bfb5.png&t=665&c=P74_Fa6ri4qzbw) No source of any kind, sounds reliable. Also certainly doesn't sound like a horribly fumbled and failed attempt at entrapment either. Sorry bud. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sondland-updates-impeachment-testimony-describing-ukraine-quid-pro-quo/ar-AAJTPJr
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KingScorpio
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November 05, 2019, 09:05:28 PM |
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its time corrupt americans focus on their own business
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TECSHARE (OP)
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November 05, 2019, 10:12:12 PM |
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This isn't anything new or damning. Lets look at some quotes... "In his new testimony, Mr. Sondland said he believed that withholding the aid — a package of $391 million in security assistance that had been approved by Congress — was “ill-advised,” although he did not know “when, why or by whom the aid was suspended.” But he said he came to believe that the aid was tied to the investigations. “ I presumed that the aid suspension had become linked to the proposed anticorruption statement,” Mr. Sondland said." "In his updated testimony, Mr. Sondland recounted how he had discussed the link with Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, on the sidelines of a Sept. 1 meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Zelensky in Warsaw. Mr. Zelensky had discussed the suspension of aid with Mr. Pence, Mr. Sondland said. “ I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Mr. Sondland said in the document, which was released by the House committees leading the inquiry, along with the transcript of his original testimony from last month." "Mr. Sondland’s new testimony contradicted the notion that he was a lone wolf pushing the quid pro quo idea himself, and portrayed him instead as just the messenger who had discovered there was a linkage between the aid and the investigations and articulated it to others. He said it “would have been natural for me to have voiced what I presumed” about what was standing in the way of releasing the military assistance." I see lots of presumptions, assumptions, and beliefs, but no evidence of anything but Trump doing investigations relating to the 2016 elections, as he is entitled to as the chief of the executive branch. Funny how Trump has been subject to nonstop investigations one after another since 2016 (and before really), and none of that is "for personal political gain", but Trump investigating a PASSED election, well that's just too far! The assertion that Trump needs to do this to win over Joe Biden is even more laughable. Joe can't even keep himself together, or his hands to himself.
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TwitchySeal
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November 05, 2019, 10:39:29 PM |
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This isn't anything new or damning. Lets look at some quotes... "In his new testimony, Mr. Sondland said he believed that withholding the aid — a package of $391 million in security assistance that had been approved by Congress — was “ill-advised,” although he did not know “when, why or by whom the aid was suspended.” But he said he came to believe that the aid was tied to the investigations. “ I presumed that the aid suspension had become linked to the proposed anticorruption statement,” Mr. Sondland said." "In his updated testimony, Mr. Sondland recounted how he had discussed the link with Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, on the sidelines of a Sept. 1 meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Zelensky in Warsaw. Mr. Zelensky had discussed the suspension of aid with Mr. Pence, Mr. Sondland said. “ I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Mr. Sondland said in the document, which was released by the House committees leading the inquiry, along with the transcript of his original testimony from last month." "Mr. Sondland’s new testimony contradicted the notion that he was a lone wolf pushing the quid pro quo idea himself, and portrayed him instead as just the messenger who had discovered there was a linkage between the aid and the investigations and articulated it to others. He said it “would have been natural for me to have voiced what I presumed” about what was standing in the way of releasing the military assistance." I see lots of presumptions, assumptions, and beliefs, but no evidence of anything but Trump doing investigations relating to the 2016 elections, as he is entitled to as the chief of the executive branch. Funny how Trump has been subject to nonstop investigations one after another since 2016 (and before really), and none of that is "for personal political gain", but Trump investigating a PASSED election, well that's just too far! The assertion that Trump needs to do this to win over Joe Biden is even more laughable. Joe can't even keep himself together, or his hands to himself. I think most of the witnesses have testified that the actual deal was for a press conference or some sort of public announcement so the world would know Biden was being investigated in exchange for the military stuff and a meeting at the White House. This would definitely make the "he was doing it for political reasons" argument stronger since a press release like that would be far more valuable politically right away. The investigation might turn up nothing or not finish till after the election. Also, that text message I posted was sent right after he got off the phone with Trump. Another thing that I think is super shady is how Trump sent Rudy over there (a private citizen) to work out the deal. Meanwhile, the State Dept people who handle foreign relations with Ukraine had no idea what was going on. That's just embarrassing and could affect the way other countries deal with our Ambassadors. The way they fired the Ambassador was also shady. You should read the transcripts and reports from her.
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Spendulus
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November 05, 2019, 10:40:00 PM |
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its time corrupt americans focus on their own business You are indeed watching the spectacle of the totally corrupt back room of one American party pushing Biden, at the same time attempting to equalize the corruption by accusing and attempting to convict Trump of the exact same thing.
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TECSHARE (OP)
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November 06, 2019, 12:40:43 AM |
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This isn't anything new or damning. Lets look at some quotes... "In his new testimony, Mr. Sondland said he believed that withholding the aid — a package of $391 million in security assistance that had been approved by Congress — was “ill-advised,” although he did not know “when, why or by whom the aid was suspended.” But he said he came to believe that the aid was tied to the investigations. “ I presumed that the aid suspension had become linked to the proposed anticorruption statement,” Mr. Sondland said." "In his updated testimony, Mr. Sondland recounted how he had discussed the link with Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, on the sidelines of a Sept. 1 meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Zelensky in Warsaw. Mr. Zelensky had discussed the suspension of aid with Mr. Pence, Mr. Sondland said. “ I said that resumption of the U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anticorruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Mr. Sondland said in the document, which was released by the House committees leading the inquiry, along with the transcript of his original testimony from last month." "Mr. Sondland’s new testimony contradicted the notion that he was a lone wolf pushing the quid pro quo idea himself, and portrayed him instead as just the messenger who had discovered there was a linkage between the aid and the investigations and articulated it to others. He said it “would have been natural for me to have voiced what I presumed” about what was standing in the way of releasing the military assistance." I see lots of presumptions, assumptions, and beliefs, but no evidence of anything but Trump doing investigations relating to the 2016 elections, as he is entitled to as the chief of the executive branch. Funny how Trump has been subject to nonstop investigations one after another since 2016 (and before really), and none of that is "for personal political gain", but Trump investigating a PASSED election, well that's just too far! The assertion that Trump needs to do this to win over Joe Biden is even more laughable. Joe can't even keep himself together, or his hands to himself. I think most of the witnesses have testified that the actual deal was for a press conference or some sort of public announcement so the world would know Biden was being investigated in exchange for the military stuff and a meeting at the White House. This would definitely make the "he was doing it for political reasons" argument stronger since a press release like that would be far more valuable politically right away. The investigation might turn up nothing or not finish till after the election. Also, that text message I posted was sent right after he got off the phone with Trump. Another thing that I think is super shady is how Trump sent Rudy over there (a private citizen) to work out the deal. Meanwhile, the State Dept people who handle foreign relations with Ukraine had no idea what was going on. That's just embarrassing and could affect the way other countries deal with our Ambassadors. The way they fired the Ambassador was also shady. You should read the transcripts and reports from her. Like I said, this is nothing new. Just more spectacles in a long parade of individuals making claims that never pan out, and you pretend it never happened as you line up the next one.
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TwitchySeal
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November 06, 2019, 03:03:43 AM |
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Like I said, this is nothing new. Just more spectacles in a long parade of individuals making claims that never pan out, and you pretend it never happened as you line up the next one.
This is all stuff that has come out today and yesterday in the transcripts they just released from last weeks hearings. Sondland is a Trump appointee that clearly had Trumps back till today. btw, wtf is up with Kentucky electing a Dem Governor?
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TECSHARE (OP)
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November 06, 2019, 03:09:48 AM |
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Like I said, this is nothing new. Just more spectacles in a long parade of individuals making claims that never pan out, and you pretend it never happened as you line up the next one.
This is all stuff that has come out today and yesterday in the transcripts they just released from last weeks hearings. Sondland is a Trump appointee that clearly had Trumps back till today. btw, wtf is up with Kentucky electing a Dem Governor? Just because it came out today doesn't mean it reveals anything new. Just more "NO U!!!1" tactics in a perpetual assembly line of accusations never amounting to anything substantive.
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TwitchySeal
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November 06, 2019, 03:22:07 AM |
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Like I said, this is nothing new. Just more spectacles in a long parade of individuals making claims that never pan out, and you pretend it never happened as you line up the next one.
This is all stuff that has come out today and yesterday in the transcripts they just released from last weeks hearings. Sondland is a Trump appointee that clearly had Trumps back till today. btw, wtf is up with Kentucky electing a Dem Governor? Just because it came out today doesn't mean it reveals anything new. Just more "NO U!!!1" tactics in a perpetual assembly line of accusations never amounting to anything substantive. I'm confused, you knew Sondland was lying when he said there was no quid pro quo the whole time? Or you think he's lying now? Did you also know they were focusing on the press conference more than the investigation also? That was news to me. (Or do you just not believe any of them?)
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Viper1
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 06, 2019, 04:00:04 AM |
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![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpics.me.me%2Fthe-truth-doesnt-change-just-because-you-dont-want-to-12316774.png&t=665&c=WrXe9xu8IEuVDA) This is the conclusion I've come to when it comes to Tech and Spend. You know the one thing I've noticed. Most of those that are more on the left are perfectly willing to change their opinion and viewpoint on things when someone makes rational arguments and acts like a grownup to show them real facts. But those on the right are more like cult followers who just blindly follow along and aren't objective about anything. No wonder the US is so fucked up.
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BTC: 1F8yJqgjeFyX1SX6KJmqYtHiHXJA89ENNT LTC: LYAEPQeDDM7Y4jbUH2AwhBmkzThAGecNBV DOGE: DSUsCCdt98PcNgUkFHLDFdQXmPrQBEqXu9
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