Bitcoin Still Repeating History? 10 Part TA Series (September-October 2019)

[1Referee]

But the thing is unlike December 2017, the price is not yet in a parabolic move. I think the halving event will be the parabolic move.

There is no such a thing as a textbook parabolic move that we have to see.

2017 bull run was driven by insane demand for Bitcoin and from ICO investors aka gamblers buying Bitcoin to buy into an ICO. What we have seen happen this year is quite parabolic if you ask me. It's not a 1000% parabolic move, but 350% in a matter of months is up there as well. What asset has done the same in the last couple of years? Bitcoin did it twice where other assets have only been trending up at most.

I wouldn't expect anything from the market until we go back above the 200 daily MA/EMA. $7000-$7500 is very realistic to happen before the end of the month if we don't get above these averages quick.

[dragonvslinux]

Part 7 added to OP. This doesn't come with any prediction/target (see Parts 1-5 for targets), but instead documents another valid indicator of Bitcoin's bearish downtrend.

Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross



Source: Trading View, October 9th 2019

A quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart . From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week.

Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend.

Own work: dragononcrypto

[dragonvslinux]

Unsurprisingly strong resistance from rallying into the EMA&MA bearcross.

200 Day MA & EMA bear cross now confirmed for October 14th (Monday) by MA & EMA forecasts*.
The crossover price is currently forecasted at $8,710 (EMA) and $8,725 (MA).

Own work: dragononcrypto

*courtesy of LVR programming for EMA forecast

[exstasie]

Part 7 added to OP. This doesn't come with any prediction/target (see Parts 1-5 for targets), but instead documents another valid indicator of Bitcoin's bearish downtrend.

Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross

Looks bearish but I'm hesitant to put much stock into any long term MA analysis. The historic data is lacking.

Here's a counterpoint to offer. We had one such bearish cross in the summer of 2013, on the way to a new ATH a few months later. You can also see two slight false bearish crosses in 2012. The MA is in teal, the EMA in orange:

[dragonvslinux]

Part 7 added to OP. This doesn't come with any prediction/target (see Parts 1-5 for targets), but instead documents another valid indicator of Bitcoin's bearish downtrend.

Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross

Looks bearish but I'm hesitant to put much stock into any long term MA analysis. The historic data is lacking.

Here's a counterpoint to offer. We had one such bearish cross in the summer of 2013, on the way to a new ATH a few months later. You can also see two slight false bearish crosses in 2012. The MA is in teal, the EMA in orange:

That's a nice view and fair point. The main counter is the price was already consolidating above the 200 EMA/MA's after finding strong support from these levels with a V-shaped recovery, thus was by facto more bullish. The difference this time is we've fallen below them and they've become strong resistance on three occasions so far.

It's should go without saying if we rally above them, the price would again be bullish. So far, it's notable that we haven't for the second week now.

[exstasie]

It's should go without saying if we rally above them, the price would again be bullish. So far, it's notable that we haven't for the second week now.

It's fair to assume the market is bearish at least until it recovers above the 200-day average. The 20-week might be a better gauge. Either way, there's no denying we're in a mid-term downtrend.

I just think the jury is out regarding the long term trend and my suspicion based on the 2012 and 2013 models is the Q2 rally was the beginning of new bull market.

[dragonvslinux]

Part 8 now added, full moon tonight folks. Will it play out with a reversal or big move deciding the next direction as has happened in previous months?
It'd hard to deny we have started to trade in a tight range, this is a neutral call, as it's difficult to define what a "reversal" implies given the current price context.

Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern



Source: TradingView, October 13th 2019

Full moons in 2019

• May 18 Flower Moon
• Jun. 17 Strawberry Moon
• Jul. 16 Buck Moon
• Aug. 15 Sturgeon Moon
• Sep. 14 Harvest Moon
• Oct. 13 Hunter's Moon

Source: https://www.space.com/16830-full-moon-calendar.html

Own work: dragononcrypto

[buwaytress]

There is no such a thing as a textbook parabolic move that we have to see.

2017 bull run was driven by insane demand for Bitcoin and from ICO investors aka gamblers buying Bitcoin to buy into an ICO. What we have seen happen this year is quite parabolic if you ask me. It's not a 1000% parabolic move, but 350% in a matter of months is up there as well. What asset has done the same in the last couple of years? Bitcoin did it twice where other assets have only been trending up at most.

I wouldn't expect anything from the market until we go back above the 200 daily MA/EMA. $7000-$7500 is very realistic to happen before the end of the month if we don't get above these averages quick.

I agree, even if others would say Bitcoin's done it at least 4 or 5 times in its history (I don't really give much credit to anything pre-2016). And that's kind of why I'm a wee bit disappointed that this year we had that bubble (or parabola?), because I'd have much preferred price to remain under pressure the entire year.

I actually would also rather we get to 7k this year first.

[adaseb]

Part 8 now added, full moon tonight folks. Will it play out with a reversal or big move deciding the next direction as has happened in previous months?
It'd hard to deny we have started to trade in a tight range, this is a neutral call, as it's difficult to define what a "reversal" implies given the current price context.

Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern



Source: TradingView, October 13th 2019

Full moons in 2019

• May 18 Flower Moon
• Jun. 17 Strawberry Moon
• Jul. 16 Buck Moon
• Aug. 15 Sturgeon Moon
• Sep. 14 Harvest Moon
• Oct. 13 Hunter's Moon

Source: https://www.space.com/16830-full-moon-calendar.html

Own work: dragononcrypto

This is the first technical analysis I have seen that takes into account the full moons. And looking at the chart you posted it doesn't seem like it's any pattern at all just completely random.

The full moon actually reminds me of the old Byteball airdrops back in 2017, where every full moon there was an airdrop and price usually tanked and then rallied shortly after. It dropped due to the people dumping their free
Coins for BTC so it had a more accurate pattern then, but now I don't think these full moons mean much.

If there is a reversal then I think it's nothing more than a coincidence.

[exstasie]

I agree, even if others would say Bitcoin's done it at least 4 or 5 times in its history (I don't really give much credit to anything pre-2016). And that's kind of why I'm a wee bit disappointed that this year we had that bubble (or parabola?), because I'd have much preferred price to remain under pressure the entire year.

I actually would also rather we get to 7k this year first.

You and a whole lot of other people.

I've been waiting for another shakeout to $7K or below but it's looking like a tossup now. Bears ushered in another high volume sell yesterday but there was zero follow through. Price just drifted back up into the previous range.

I'm beginning to wonder if we all missed the bottom and will be forced to start chasing soon. I know that's David's opinion.

[dragonvslinux]

I agree, even if others would say Bitcoin's done it at least 4 or 5 times in its history (I don't really give much credit to anything pre-2016). And that's kind of why I'm a wee bit disappointed that this year we had that bubble (or parabola?), because I'd have much preferred price to remain under pressure the entire year.

I actually would also rather we get to 7k this year first.

You and a whole lot of other people.

I've been waiting for another shakeout to $7K or below but it's looking like a tossup now. Bears ushered in another high volume sell yesterday but there was zero follow through. Price just drifted back up into the previous range.

I'm beginning to wonder if we all missed the bottom and will be forced to start chasing soon. I know that's David's opinion.

I don't think there is any hurry to get below $7k, many were expecting it would happen in a hurry with a bearflag formation, or continued capitulation below $7.8k, but clearly it never happened - and while it may never happen - to me this doesn't make the likelihood of bouncing back from current levels to $9k more likely, the odds are the still around the same (as probability generally claims a re-test is most likely before further downside). This also means there may be a lot of sellers waiting on the sidelines, as this re-test still hasn't happened, but is still the most likely event.

By the looks of it we can continue moving sideways for another 2 weeks towards $9,050 while still being quite bearish. Price would still be below the 200 Day MA, without a bounce the price would be notably weak and we'd still be trapped by the descending triangle resistance (or arguably now parallel channel). If we don't start closing back above the 200 DMA, the price isn't going anywhere basically.



The only bullish case I can see is that it could start to resemble the Feb/March consolidation pattern as a form of fractal, and we all know how that ended.



I've seen a chart of the comparison which has started to play out, but I still don't buy it yet. I'm a natural skeptic 

Own work: dragononcrypto

[dragonvslinux]

Updated bi-weekly screenshots for Part 1-5. Parts 6-8 haven't really changed yet so no updates to share.
Not much has changed, apart from changed Part 5 from Relevant to Similar.

Updated: October 14th 2019

For those who don't have a tradingview account to press play...

Similar | Relevant | Unlikely

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018

Comment: Broke down too soon for confirmation of similarity. Could still follow same pattern but unlikely

Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown

Comment: Broke down as expected and following similar enough pattern

Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low

Comment: Broke down too fast and too far for similarity of a "slow grind" reversal

Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown

Comment: Broke down as expected, following similar pattern though starting to drift off

Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario

Comment: Broke too soon to confirm Daily descending triangle target but now following similar pattern

Own work: dragononcrypto

[exstasie]

The only bullish case I can see is that it could start to resemble the Feb/March consolidation pattern as a form of fractal, and we all know how that ended.



I've seen a chart of the comparison which has started to play out, but I still don't buy it yet. I'm a natural skeptic 

There's good reason to be skeptical, and I'm sympathetic to that. I'm often one of the pessimists in disbelief as markets climb the wall of worry.

I am very familiar with the above formation in BTCUSD though. It could be a classic scam curve. You better be prepared for it to break in either direction.

[dragonvslinux]

Updated screenshots of Parts 6-8 now posted as there has been a bit of price movement since publishing.

Updated: October 16th 2019

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1

Comment: Half way through the month and the TD Sequential is currently reading a Red 2 but still another 2 weeks to go

Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross

Comment: Rejected by the 200 Day MA & EMA a few days before the bear cross on October 14th

Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern

Comment: Still no definitive price direction since full moon but noticeably drifting downwards similar to Harvest Moon

Own work: dragononcrypto

[dragonvslinux]

Part 9 added. Not sure how many parts of this series will be added, probably once definite directions in the market take place, and/or these forecasts no longer become relevant.
Also bare in the mind the relationship with the TD Sequential on the Monthly chart (Part 6) in relationship to Part 9, that would likely have more of an influence (as longer timefame).

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?



Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019

Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.

Own work: dragononcrypto

[exstasie]

Part 9 added. Not sure how many parts of this series will be added, probably once definite directions in the market take place, and/or these forecasts no longer become relevant.

Which scenarios are looking most likely now? Too many to keep track of.

I'm still favoring something like Part 5, though I'm not sure we'll get a full on capitulation. We might just start slowly sliding upwards like late summer 2013.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.

Ah, that VPVR shows why price is sticking to this level. Even in the bearish case, the market will want to fill that gap in the $9,000s.

[Wexnident]

Bakkt launch was an important event. It was probably the reason why the Bitcoin price took off in March. Something like buying the rumor and selling the news type of trading. As you can see the price fell from the triangle exactly on September 23. But the thing is unlike December 2017, the price is not yet in a parabolic move. I think the halving event will be the parabolic move.

I doubt you could push bakkt into the front as the reason. BTC was indeed hyped up when Bakkt announced its launch so a lot of analysts deduced that bitcoin could push for a bullish run after its launch. Sadly, the launch itself hardly had any effect on the market, and the market even went down to 7500 $ or so after the launch.

Id expect a close scenario similar with 2017 or the part 5 as indicated by OP. Well, halving is just around the corner and we all would expect the price surge once it happens. I'm gonna wait for the results for changes next week again. Still waiting for a part 5 repeat next year.

[dragonvslinux]

Which scenarios are looking most likely now? Too many to keep track of. [...]

Ah, that VPVR shows why price is sticking to this level. Even in the bearish case, the market will want to fill that gap in the $9,000s.

Part 2 still has a 70-80% chance of playing out in my opinion, despite descending triangles only having a 60% chance of reaching the measured target, BTC has proven more reliable.
Part 5 is looking very similar. If I had drawn the overlay of the breakdown within the bakkt timeframe like I did with other parts it would be pretty identical, despite different time-frames.

Yes the VPVR is quite relevant in my opinion, hence charting it for a change. Especially when we are finding support from the 100 Week MA (roughly 2 year moving average) but getting rejected by the two year average volume price just above it. Reminds me of when we were stuck between the 200 Day EMA & MA before breaking down.

[scambust]

Bakkt launch was an important event. It was probably the reason why the Bitcoin price took off in March. Something like buying the rumor and selling the news type of trading. As you can see the price fell from the triangle exactly on September 23. But the thing is unlike December 2017, the price is not yet in a parabolic move. I think the halving event will be the parabolic move.

I doubt you could push bakkt into the front as the reason. BTC was indeed hyped up when Bakkt announced its launch so a lot of analysts deduced that bitcoin could push for a bullish run after its launch. Sadly, the launch itself hardly had any effect on the market, and the market even went down to 7500 $ or so after the launch.

Id expect a close scenario similar with 2017 or the part 5 as indicated by OP. Well, halving is just around the corner and we all would expect the price surge once it happens. I'm gonna wait for the results for changes next week again. Still waiting for a part 5 repeat next year.

You don't understand. The day Bakkt launched, the event was already priced in as the price climbs from $3,000 back in early 2019. It is a trading strategy to buy something before the actual event - which can be a launch, opening, listing, etc. If the announcement never happened, the btc price could just be ranging around $3,000 - $6,000 until today.

[exstasie]

I doubt you could push bakkt into the front as the reason. BTC was indeed hyped up when Bakkt announced its launch so a lot of analysts deduced that bitcoin could push for a bullish run after its launch. Sadly, the launch itself hardly had any effect on the market, and the market even went down to 7500 $ or so after the launch.

You don't understand. The day Bakkt launched, the event was already priced in as the price climbs from $3,000 back in early 2019. It is a trading strategy to buy something before the actual event - which can be a launch, opening, listing, etc. if the announcement never happened, the btc price could just be ranging around $3,000 - $6,000 until today.

The Bakkt launch played out as a "sell the news" event but it would be foolish to attribute the entire 2019 bull run to the announcements.

Bakkt repeatedly missed their earlier launch estimates last year. By the time the bull run exploded this past April, there was zero indication they would ever launch. By then, people had forgotten about Bakkt just like they did with ETFs.

The "buy the rumor" event was when Bakkt finally announced a firm launch date in August. We got a 15% relief rally off the news.