Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST

[TheBeardedBaby]

Also maybe is it better to exclude some new members or verily low activity/merit/account farmers and how to do or how to approach this matter?

Add a rule like the good Campaign managers do, something like 3 or 5 earned merit received in the last 120 days. This is very easy to follow, as the in merit history of an account you see only the merits sent/received the past 120 days.
So quick look at the profiles merit history can easily give you overview if you gonna accept or decline the application/entry

[1715153120]

1715153120

[bitcoinPsycho]

Also maybe is it better to exclude some new members or verily low activity/merit/account farmers and how to do or how to approach this matter?

Add a rule like the good Campaign managers do, something like 3 or 5 earned merit received in the last 120 days. This is very easy to follow, as the in merit history of an account you see only the merits sent/received the past 120 days.
So quick look at the profiles merit history can easily give you overview if you gonna accept or decline the application/entry

I think at least 50+ earned merit would be good

[gentlemand]

I think at least 50+ earned merit would be good

50 merit in a couple of months cuts out a lot of perfectly serviceable members who don't get noticed all that much. You can fluke 3-5 in that amount of time. 10-15 is a more solid figure.

[TheBeardedBaby]

Even with 3-5 merit will filter a lot of low effort posters of course, the higher the requirement the better. This solves also the problem with the low activity and account farmers.
On the other side with a higher merit requirements many will complain that only Merit Cycling Clubs Members (according to someone who I won't name, no more drama nor walls of text are needed here) will be eligible to participate, so maybe we need to find the golden mean...

[El duderino_]

Even with 3-5 merit will filter a lot of low effort posters of course, the higher the requirement the better. This solves also the problem with the low activity and account farmers.
On the other side with a higher merit requirements many will complain that only Merit Cycling Clubs Members (according to someone who I won't name, no more drama nor walls of text are needed here) will be eligible to participate, so maybe we need to find the golden mean...

At this time last games where always at least 10 merit required, though it seems not enough as I see a few where I have my doubts....On the other hand 30-50 merit or something should be doable from start of the merit system, though at some boards merit is being used less as in other boards, and I don't wanna exclude contributing members for a opportunity of fun and maybe winning something.

Of-course this is why I like to hear some suggestions

[Dabs]

3-5 filter low hanging fruit
6-10 = maybe good minimum
11-15 = maybe also good, but maybe too high. Some good members who aren't noticed won't get this much.

50+ = account farmers who have multiple alts can easily get this and stuff it all into one account (at the risk of getting all their alts linked together by a merit abuse bounty hunter.)

[bitcoinPsycho]

Hmmm tricky

[El duderino_]

3-5 filter low hanging fruit
6-10 = maybe good minimum
11-15 = maybe also good, but maybe too high. Some good members who aren't noticed won't get this much.

50+ = account farmers who have multiple alts can easily get this and stuff it all into one account (at the risk of getting all their alts linked together by a merit abuse bounty hunter.)

Thats maybe why they won't risk it cause it's still very random, and if they would and been caught is a good thing as well.... Not?

[buwaytress]

Surprised my Haiku actually got 2 votes (sweet of you guys) and threw mine against someone who also used number plays;)

If ATH breaks and one of us 20k+ people win, it will be epic. Got to say though, I'm "disappointed" we're not seeing any frenzied action so far this month. Kind of miss the crazy swings coming up to Christmas. Gotta give them something to talk about otherwise we'll all get bored and watch the kettle boiling...

[STT]

exclude some new members

Exclude brand new members yea because its a forum contest and people have to been around, read topics and be part of the community discussion for at least a while.   The problem with merit is that its not as liquid as I would like to see it, I want to see it last all the way down from the sources and exchanged between members onto the smallest elements or the new blood in the community.   Its possible the river runs dry before it reaches every corner of the forum.
   We definitely always will need the newest members to feel this forum is open to them.   So any rule on merit I think should focus on recent activity rather then the larger numbers in requirement, anybody new isnt going to have 50 merit and they might just have been reading mostly for 6 months not posting.   I'd set any merit as low as 5 within the last few months, so they would have needed to have been an active poster in those months and say maybe a member of Bitcointalk for at least 3 months as a requirement though that part could be longer if wanted.
   Im totally certain theres a ton of people who havent and wont gain 5 merit in 3 months, I'd guess the bulk of forum members are either not posting that actively or just never gain the attention of someone with merit.  I do think that is the silent majority even within active forum accounts but I havent double checked any available stats possible on that question tbh.

Globb0 has been very close in many of these lists....

Time for him to call out some high prices  

He needs to issue a declaration/threat to eat his hat if Bitcoin doesnt get six figures by next year.   Maybe a suitable leather hat cooking away on live webcam feed while a countdown ticks down would force the issue to the upside.

https://t.co/9Sds6TtSmz?amp=1

I was only once close and played like 5 games so far.

I was close last time or thats how I remember it, it didnt move as fast as I thought it might.  

Daily bars

So if price purely stays glued to the rails right now we arrive at 6454 on contest end.   If price jumps to the upper rail, another trend since July that'd be about 6920.   If we should completely derail, I'd guess 5380 for where we could settle but I think slow not fast might be the best guess.   Breaking both these downward trends could be 8310 or 9773 for this contest end and 9773 is not a bad guess as it formed alot of the summer lows.
  Do nothing go nowhere till year end I reckon is 7439.  Thats the Oct end low roughly, just prior to the Chinese speech

[Dabs]

Just eliminate Newbie accounts and minimum 5 merit as stated above should sort out almost all the bad fake accounts. Any legit newbie unfortunately won't be able to join, or he could still post an opinion.

[Globb0]

Terrible if 7 becomes resistance instead of support. 



I'm growing my hair balder as fast as I can, ready for my yourtube career

[Hueristic]

3-5 filter low hanging fruit
6-10 = maybe good minimum
11-15 = maybe also good, but maybe too high. Some good members who aren't noticed won't get this much.

50+ = account farmers who have multiple alts can easily get this and stuff it all into one account (at the risk of getting all their alts linked together by a merit abuse bounty hunter.)

I was thinking these are a good honey pot to look for those accounts, but now they have been warned.

I think at least 50+ earned merit would be good

50 merit in a couple of months cuts out a lot of perfectly serviceable members who don't get noticed all that much. You can fluke 3-5 in that amount of time. 10-15 is a more solid figure.

Agreed.


I vote they cannot be on my ignore list.

[JayJuanGee]

Terrible if 7 becomes resistance instead of support. 


I'm growing my hair balder as fast as I can, ready for my yourtube career

I agree with you about the first part of your above statements, Globb0, but I am wondering if you are recognizing a pattern about bald youtubers or is just the "baldie" angle going to be your particular signature approach in your anticipated upcoming youtubering career?

Surely, there seems to be a kind of natural tendency for a decently large number of guys to not worry about the bald part coming to fruition.  It kind of comes upon many guys whether wanted or not, but most guys don't really strive towards accelerating such progress in that direction, but some guys will just shave the whole fucking thing off because at a certain point it is no longer fruitful to continue to try to appear NOT bald when the actual real world situation is so obviously the opposite.

[Globb0]

Tone Vays comb forward specifically   

[Icygreen]

For the interested .....

We are closing in to the end of Q4.....

Now I do like those lists games but maybe wanna do a completely different thing or a similar thing or whatever, if someone has some good ideas please share them in this thread, I would like to work around the halving event next year, I had in mind a game that end like a month before the event and the highest price from start of the game, or highest price in the last 2 week of the game or at a set date or.....??

Then maybe later on an similar game for after the halving....

Also I would like to make a side competition like the Haiku’s but something different this time, if any ideas....

I know there are many more creative people in here as myself so share some thoughts thx

Also maybe is it better to exclude some new members or verily low activity/merit/account farmers and how to do or how to approach this matter?

I like your games and winner take all is traditional but what I saw from Theymos's art contest is that because the winnings were divided also subjectively based on his opinion, many more participants took entry and there were many winners. It felt like a real success.
Maybe a game which has multiple winners and more chances to win however the total winning amount could remain the same and be divided. . Something like, players would need to make 3 guesses to compete,ie. 1.Guess the UTC time and date of the halving, 2. The closest price guess at a chosen time, 3. and perhaps even a subjective allocation such as your idea of Haiku's of which could be voted upon in a poll by the players. You pick your favorite 10 and we vote.   
That's my 2 satoshis,  Thanks again for the games

[buwaytress]

Think the beauty of the games before was how simple they were (and those who wanted to display a bit more genius would add in the TA and haikus).

The TA addition is a must I think for Speculation, but maybe a different form of poetry. Limericks (Irish and supposed to be very silly anyway)?

Maybe next game, not only guess the price, but guess the month's/quarter's high and low. Closest to the price still wins, high and low guesses secondary prizes? I won't mind contributing to a small pot for that kind of thing;)

[Searing]

I am distressed....about 1/2 a month to go and I doubt that I will reach my $11,111.11 guess for the high on December 31st, 2019.

Alas, the 2013 BTC Kool-Aid was strong with the force in this one!

Would it not be great however if I was correct to see the price pop back up to around that? Alas, better odds of being Natalie Portman's

Love Puppet at this point. (Wait! That means I still have a chance for either!)

[El duderino_]

I am distressed....about 1/2 a month to go and I doubt that I will reach my $11,111.11 guess for the high on December 31st, 2019.

Alas, the 2013 BTC Kool-Aid was strong with the force in this one!

Would it not be great however if I was correct to see the price pop back up to around that? Alas, better odds of being Natalie Portman's

Love Puppet at this point. (Wait! That means I still have a chance for either!)

Yeah reaching 11,111 will be tough, but never say never in bitcoinlandia

[Globb0]

Cheeky girls touch my bum