Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST

[hatshepsut93]

Is it Bitstamp price, cause that still important as we follow Bitstamp for the game?

I'm using coingecko price since that's what I'm familiar with, I'll see if Bitstamp has a public API and update if possible

Sweet, I'm in 56th place.

Also, I will add the rank positions so it will be more clear what everyone place is. I'm open to more suggestions if anyone has some. Also, fellow coders can contribute at https://github.com/Tiramisu77/bct-game-leaderboard

Edit: done and done

[1714129636]

1714129636

[El duderino_]

I have created an auto-updated leaderboard page for this competition - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

It takes the entries from the second post of this thread, calculated the delta - how close the prediction is to the current price, then sorts the whole list and displays it, with each predictions delta added as a second column.

Sweet, I'm in 56th place.

56 out of ? 

[TheBeardedBaby]

When will be the announced the next competition if there will be a next competition of course? I already missed the first one and this one, I don't want to miss a third one, please, it's really fun

[El duderino_]

When will be the announced the next competition if there will be a next competition of course? I already missed the first one and this one, I don't want to miss a third one, please, it's really fun

I'm still looking for some ideas, probably the first game to open will be somewhere in January.... involving the upcoming halving, as this will be the main thing to happen in 2020 I guess and where very much people have very different thought about, i'm only looking what I will do for excluding some none contributing members or alts, probably some activity, earned merit change , still thinking over it.

[nutildah]

I have created an auto-updated leaderboard page for this competition - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

It takes the entries from the second post of this thread, calculated the delta - how close the prediction is to the current price, then sorts the whole list and displays it, with each predictions delta added as a second column.

Sweet, I'm in 56th place.

56 out of ? 

56 out of 181.

#winning

[JSRAW]

I have created an auto-updated leaderboard page for this competition - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

It takes the entries from the second post of this thread, calculated the delta - how close the prediction is to the current price, then sorts the whole list and displays it, with each predictions delta added as a second column.

Sweet +1

@mic add this into OP too, some might miss this comment.

[El duderino_]

^
Done

[El duderino_]

I have created an auto-updated leaderboard page for this competition - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

It takes the entries from the second post of this thread, calculated the delta - how close the prediction is to the current price, then sorts the whole list and displays it, with each predictions delta added as a second column.

Sweet, I'm in 56th place.

56 out of ? 

56 out of 181.

#winning

Then indeed you're on the winning side

[Icygreen]

Just realized there was a haiku voting poll already in place. You were way ahead of my suggestion mic. I guess what they say about brilliant minds could be true 

[Biodom]

33 out of 181, not bad.

For the sake of the vast majority including myself, I hope NOT to win in this game.

[bitserve]

When will be the announced the next competition if there will be a next competition of course? I already missed the first one and this one, I don't want to miss a third one, please, it's really fun

I'm still looking for some ideas, probably the first game to open will be somewhere in January.... involving the upcoming halving, as this will be the main thing to happen in 2020 I guess and where very much people have very different thought about, i'm only looking what I will do for excluding some none contributing members or alts, probably some activity, earned merit change , still thinking over it.

I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident...

The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize.

Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers!

[Globb0]

Yes I did suggest that some time ago, slots probably that are preset?

Doesn't have to be a secret if they are gone or not, the fun is seeing the guesses.

[bitserve]

Yes I did suggest that some time ago, slots probably that are preset?

Doesn't have to be a secret if they are gone or not, the fun is seeing the guesses.

Yeah, that's it, preset slots!

[Last of the V8s]

Yes, preset all the sluts.

[El duderino_]

Just realized there was a haiku voting poll already in place. You were way ahead of my suggestion mic. I guess what they say about brilliant minds could be true 

#flattered

[El duderino_]

When will be the announced the next competition if there will be a next competition of course? I already missed the first one and this one, I don't want to miss a third one, please, it's really fun

I'm still looking for some ideas, probably the first game to open will be somewhere in January.... involving the upcoming halving, as this will be the main thing to happen in 2020 I guess and where very much people have very different thought about, i'm only looking what I will do for excluding some none contributing members or alts, probably some activity, earned merit change , still thinking over it.

I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident...

The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize.

Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers!

I do understand....

Or like maybe when a guess is made other person have to guess with a margin like 25 up and down of the other person like you chose 7200 then only from 7225 or below 7175 are available....

Or like every 200 $ starting from zero till...... is a box and every one in that box has to equally share the price ....
Like 10 persons in that box everyone gets 1/10 of the price....??

What would be best one of those

Or just how things are going....

And yes I buy some corn just to support the games after the personal losses .......

[bitserve]

I do understand....

Or like maybe when a guess is made other person have to guess with a margin like 25 up and down of the other person like you chose 7200 then only from 7225 or below 7175 are available....

Or like every 200 $ starting from zero till...... is a box and every one in that box has to equally share the price ....
Like 10 persons in that box everyone gets 1/10 of the price....??

What would be best one of those

Or just how things are going....

And yes I buy some corn just to support the games after the personal losses .......

Yes both options could be valid. The first option (automatically reserving 25 over and under the guess price) would probably the better and easier to implement.

That would encourage participants to be faster in their predictions in contrast to what happens now in which it is "technically" better to wait. Of course it is "just" a game, a free one thanks to your generosity, but still there is money (and not a trivial amount for most) on the table. Plus everyone likes to try win, money or not, because that is part of the fun.

On the other hand, the predefined slots which multiple people can choose if they believe that will be the price even if they would have to share it has an additional advantage. There is a possibility there might be more happy winners. But on the contrary the prize would be less impresive for each of them.

So yes, both options might be interesting but they have different pros and cons.

If it would be me, probably I would go with the first option because everything is easy to understand and manage and it is the less change to current "rules". Instead of just making sure a pick hasn't been taken before, participants (and you when updating the list) just have to make sure their pick is $25 apart from any other previous picks.

Easy and it will encourage to make picks as soon as possible. And still there can be only "ONE winner that takes it all" lol

Or go with the shareable slots if you want to allow for the chance of multiple winners sharing the victory. That would also make for an interesting experiment to see how many people decides to go with their guess no matter if there are already a bunch of others on the same slot. That is not currently possible and people gets forced to either box someone (which I consider somewhat impolite and try to avoid) or go for a second best guess, or third...

BUT... that alternative would not encourage participants to make their pick fast. Maybe on the contrary, it would still be better to wait and decide as you can always share the spot even if previous participants picked it first.

So I would go for the first option, yeah.

P.S.: In fact both alternatives are the same being the difference if the slots can be shared (which doesn't encourage early picks) or are unavailable for next participants (which encourages early picks in some way).

[dragonvslinux]

Back upto 3rd place I see 



Source: https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

[buwaytress]

Dragon, Christmas is approaching and I've been a very good boy. Maybe Santa ticks it up several rackets, enters top gear and burns the nitro.

Still very dull end of the year, so am hoping for a lot of fireworks in the final week. The way things been going, can't help but smell something round the 2020 corner. Pure psychology, something got to give.

[Globb0]

We're too close!

Stay on target....!