Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

not bouncing yet 

Can't lie, I was caught off guard by this dump. I overestimated demand and sentiment. Masterluc prevailed this time with his bear call.

I figured further grinding down to the 0.786 was maybe in the cards, but the $6,000s and $5,000s? Crazy stuff. The stock markets are crashing as well, which probably intensified things.

I always say, BTC usually surprises us in both directions. Well it's just accomplished that! We just got another reminder why it's important not to get too bullish without confirmation.

The market has basically tagged the 200-week MA. Bad news if it doesn't bounce soon:

[1714956257]

1714956257

[1714956257]

1714956257

[1714956257]

1714956257

[1714956257]

1714956257

[dragonvslinux]

not bouncing yet  

Observing at $6.2K after capitulating to the 200 Week MA around $5.5K. WTF!
I guess you could say we've bounced off that level, but still in the middle of the breakdown from $7.2K to $5.5K...
Should of left my buys below $6K to the 200 Week MA, but have put rest of fiat in now at least  

[exstasie]

In hindsight, I no longer think the 2019 and 2020 rallies were part of a bull market. I think we are still in the post-2017 bear market. It was not easy to recognize at first since it's a sideways, time-based correction (probably a triangle). Pending confirmation of this low and holding above the 200-week MA, this is now my preferred count:



The good news: we saw historically high volume yesterday. That indicates exhaustion. Similar volume spikes = the December 2017 top, the February 2018 bottom, the June 2019 top.

The other good news: Longs are down 47% and shorts are up 220% from their February extremes on Bitfinex.

Best case scenario, the market V-bottoms and runs to the $7,000s or so, consolidates, and then eventually forms that upper triangle bound maybe near $10K. We could probably expect another test of the 200-week MA in Q3 or Q4 before exponential gains in 2021.

If the market holds below the 200-week MA (currently around $5,500) and breaches the 2018 low, there are probably pretty dark days ahead. No need to explore that yet.

[dragonvslinux]

In hindsight, I no longer think the 2019 and 2020 rallies were part of a bull market. I think we are still in the post-2017 bear market. It was not easy to recognize at first since it's a sideways, time-based correction (probably a triangle). Pending confirmation of this low and holding above the 200-week MA, this is now my preferred count:



The good news: we saw historically high volume yesterday. That indicates exhaustion. Similar volume spikes = the December 2017 top, the February 2018 bottom, the June 2019 top.

The other good news: Longs are down 47% and shorts are up 220% from their February extremes on Bitfinex.

Best case scenario, the market V-bottoms and runs to the $7,000s or so, consolidates, and then eventually forms that upper triangle bound maybe near $10K. We could probably expect another test of the 200-week MA in Q3 or Q4 before exponential gains in 2021.

If the market holds below the 200-week MA (currently around $5,500) and breaches the 2018 low, there are probably pretty dark days ahead. No need to explore that yet.

Nice perspective, hindsight is a beautiful thing, being able to swiftly change your TA, as you have done, based on changes in the market is more valuable however. Here's my perspective of the Weekly chart right now, that while still has a few days to go (anything could happen), is trying to "overlook" the volatility:

While retracing 50% of the capitulation is expected, the manner in which this happened (quicker than the 50% drop), gives me a lot of hope. Closing the day back above $6K would make the Weekly candle bullish (longer wick at the bottom than the candle body). Of course, a lot could happen over the weekend, but a break above $6K would signal further bullish momentum, regardless of current volitility, liquidity or volume (fibs are still fibs, volume is still volume, MAs mean very little right now).

On the Weekly chart, we did "nothing more" than wick down to the the 2 year-long strong volume support, that imo was likely the best buying opportunity for a tiny minority of investors (in the past 2 years). Try and look at things from a different perspective, if we had taken 1-3 months to get to this level, while this would obviously be very bearish (closing below the 200 Week MA around $5.5K - never done before) by bouncing strong from it back to $6K with a 50% move upwards over the course of a few weeks, this would actually be completely normal. The fact that these moves occured, both up and down, within 48 hours, is of low significance to me right now, merely indicating an increase in volatility that may or may not be sustained.

[fabiorem]

In hindsight, I no longer think the 2019 and 2020 rallies were part of a bull market. I think we are still in the post-2017 bear market. It was not easy to recognize at first since it's a sideways, time-based correction (probably a triangle).

I was talking about it all this time. I saw the StF ratio curve being moved ahead by those twitter "analysts" last year, and noticed it was a fake run. Then I stopped buying.

There is no more 4-year cycle. This theory was abandoned, FA is not valid anymore.
I pay attention to posts. I remember what was written before and what is being written now. The bulltards are trying to lure people into a way of thinking that I can only correlate to a religion, a cult. You just pray and then bitcoin will be at 100k.

I remember McAfee saying in 2018 that you have to "believe" that bitcoin will go to one million in 2020. Since when someone need to "believe" in bitcoin? I thought bitcoin was a project for a digital currency, which would give back the value which was stolen from people through international debt, debt which was contracted by nation-states.

You can see now I wasn't spreading misinformation. Its the reality. The more people believe, the less it will happen. If bitcoin settles in the 5-15k range, then its just a matter of adjusting, buying between 5-10k and selling between 10-15k.

When I said the price needed 2/3 of the ATH to call a bull run, it was because of the risk of going down the way it did yesterday. At 12k it would be much harder to manipulate the price than it was at 6k (which is half of it). If the bearwhales tried it at 12k, the price would settle around 10k and would exhaust the bearish momentum, thus prompting a bull run. That's why I called it a "transitional" bear market, because it was not clear if there would be a bull run or not.

Now, I'm not going to sell all my stash, because things dont repeat as easily as we think. If the 4-year cycle is not going to repeat itself, maybe these swings could not as well. But something I will have to sell when it goes back to 10k, just in case I need the money in the future, as this bear market might last for much longer than I planned to hold the asset. For now, I consider this the longest bear market in bitcoin history.

[exstasie]

In hindsight, I no longer think the 2019 and 2020 rallies were part of a bull market. I think we are still in the post-2017 bear market. It was not easy to recognize at first since it's a sideways, time-based correction (probably a triangle).

I was talking about it all this time.

Acknowledged, but I think you just happened to be right. Your whole basis for a bear market (that the 2019-2020 market didn't go high enough or fast enough vs. 2015-2016, or stock to flow) still makes no sense. I've never been able to get a real answer out of you as to what a "bear market" even is.

The important distinction here is sideways, time-based correction vs. sharp, price-based correction. When most people talk about "bear markets" they mean the latter. Calling the post-2017 structure a "bear market" doesn't even really do it justice because it implies a downtrend. Many do not consider a triangle to indicate "bear market" or "downtrend" conditions since it's characterized by higher lows.

Even though the Historic Wave IV is at a higher degree than Wave (iv) of III, the 2014 bear market dropped considerably further. That's worth noting. So is the magnitude of the Wave (b) retracement of IV. If you consider the higher low / lower high structure and the magnitude of the $13,000s retracement, this looks an awful lot like long term bullish sideways, whereas in 2014 we would be heading to much further lows.

If we're going to talk about "bear markets" we should be making these kinds of distinctions.

I saw the StF ratio curve being moved ahead by those twitter "analysts" last year, and noticed it was a fake run. Then I stopped buying.

Stop paying attention to the stock-to-flow curve. The 2013 bubble front ran it, the 2017 bubble lagged behind it. There was no reason to expect a bubble before the halving. The model won't have failed until years have gone by.

[exstasie]

This might be a running triangle. Declining volume seems to agree. Looking for a break above $5,790 to confirm. Thrust target is the $7,300 area. If we're really lucky, the market will spike to $8K+.



Fingers crossed that this breaks to the upside. A powerful thrust into the $7,000s will save the chart and confirm an epic high volume V-bottom. Historically rare but a very reliable bottom indicator.

With 1.5 days before the weekly close, we really don't want to see a breakdown from here. That will suggest this run to $6K was a dead cat bounce and confirm a close below the 200-week MA.

[dragonvslinux]

This might be a running triangle. Declining volume seems to agree. Looking for a break above $5,790 to confirm. Thrust target is the $7,300 area. If we're really lucky, the market will spike to $8K+.

I've been keeping an eye on this triangle too, even if I'm not a fan of symmetrical triangles, especially after a sell-off as they usually act as continuation patterns. However I full a agree that a break to upside would lead to a decent move upwards, I measure it as 22% to $6,800 on a 4hr chart (that will unfortunately likely act as strong resistance, even if it recently failed as any form of support), but ultimately it depends how you are drawing your triangle (I'm well aware we draw differently, which is a good thing).

A break to downside would target $4,150 as a measured move for me, that while sounds bearish to most (dropping 20%+), this move coul actually confirm the low $4K levels as strong support (a year after it was strong resistance for 3 months), as well as making another higher high ($3.2, $3,8, $4.X), which would be great imo. Even if I'm more expecting a re-test of $4.5-4.85K next week as a re-test of holding the 200 Week MA.

[exstasie]

This is sort of ugly. Attempted breakout smacked down. We are now 11 hours from the weekly close, trading a couple hundred dollars below the 200-week MA, and it doesn't seem like the market wants to go up.

Prove me wrong, bulls.....

[exstasie]

The weekly close/200-week MA question is coming down to the wire. 4 hours away now. Traders may be waiting to see how stock market futures open for the week in 2 hours. Continuation of last week's panic would probably spell bad news for BTC.

The market is obviously still coiling for breakout. Despite the failed rally last night, we are still holding inside a triangle pattern. The proportions and internal count actually look much better now, more complete.

Looking for a clear breach of $5,583 or $5,050 to confirm direction, preferably on notable volume:



Due to the direction of the flag/pennant pole, my bias is bullish until proven otherwise. However I do expect this triangle thrust to be sold into hard. BTC is definitely a sell in the $7,000s or (less likely) $8,000s. If by some miracle we see the 200-day MA, it's probably worth shorting.

Then we can wait and reassess after the market finds support, maybe after a retest of the 200-week MA.

[exstasie]

Fucking triangles. Yet another fake out.



The Fed cut rates to zero and announced QE, then BTCUSD immediately broke to the upside on decent volume. When CME index futures opened an hour later, they did not react the same way, gapping to the downside instead. BTCUSD followed, almost down to the minute. The triangle breakout then turned into an Eiffel tower.

This looks very ugly. Lots of bulls were just trapped. Not much positive to say at all about the intraday or daily charts. Check out this wick:



We closed the week at $5,345 which was $167 below the 200-week MA. This is not necessarily a deal breaker regarding the long term trend but we're hanging on by a thread. Given how ugly the lower time frames are, bulls shouldn't get too comfortable.

Absent some new bullish evidence, it looks like the market will grind back down below $5,000 and possibly back to the lows.

[exstasie]

The market dug down to the $4,400s and formed a nice recovery. It could be the beginning of a bullish base. We're still dancing around the 200-week MA. The daily is still ugly as hell but there is potential now.



Short term, the $5,500-$5,650 zone looks possible (if a bit ambitious) for a local top, and in the bearish scenario a lower high. Measured move at $5.6K, lots of S/R from the last 5 days right there, and the 0.705 and 0.786 retracement levels from yesterday's dump.



With 2 high volume daily pivots right at $6K now, a clear breach above there should trigger a significant move upwards. I'm guessing that won't happen yet, and we'll have some lower volatility ranging between $4,500 and $6K instead.

Wild card factor: the stock market and sentiment about the global economy. The markets dumped a bit on the weekly open, bucking the Fed rate cut and QE news, but now I'm seeing a lot of short term bullish potential. This could easily bounce to the 10-day MA in the 2,700s for starters:



Longer term, I still see parallels to 1987 (as opposed to 2008). Meaning there may be light at the end of the tunnel, as opposed to a hellish 2020.

[dragonvslinux]

Short term, the $5,500-$5,650 zone looks possible (if a bit ambitious) for a local top, and in the bearish scenario a lower high. Measured move at $5.6K, lots of S/R from the last 5 days right there, and the 0.705 and 0.786 retracement levels from yesterday's dump.

Zooming in a little further on the 1hr to the fib retracement of the highs of the 15th and lows on the 13th, we are currently being rejected by the 0.618 (red arrows) by being unable to close candle bodies above $5,391, while the 0.5 at $5,208 has acted as support a couple of times now, but not enough time imo.



Not convinced this is all that relevant, but it's good to see we weren't completely rejected by the 0.5 (expected) fib retracement at $5,913, as was the case based on the breakdown from $8K level to $3.8K (red arrow). I definitely see some potential hopium on smaller time-frames, if we can turn the volume control of $5.3K into support.

With 2 high volume daily pivots right at $6K now, a clear breach above there should trigger a significant move upwards. I'm guessing that won't happen yet, and we'll have some lower volatility ranging between $4,500 and $6K instead.

Agreed, a clean move back above $6K would open the doors for $6.4K and $7K fib retracement levels, in the hope we would then we able to turn the 0.5 fib into support.
Also not feeling that bullish yet, until the referenced levels are breached and relevant support is confirmed. Until then, I expect continued testing of sub $5K support.

[exstasie]

Short term, the $5,500-$5,650 zone looks possible (if a bit ambitious) for a local top, and in the bearish scenario a lower high. Measured move at $5.6K, lots of S/R from the last 5 days right there, and the 0.705 and 0.786 retracement levels from yesterday's dump.

We've now tagged this range. Haven't seen a clear failure yet but I would be on the lookout. This is a high resistance area, with unconfirmed hidden bearish divergence. The volume trend also seems to imply a bear flag:



There could be another spike upwards first but my gut tells me:



If so, let's see how price reacts to the $4,800 area. It could be a higher low on the way to breaking above $6K.

[dragonvslinux]

Short term, the $5,500-$5,650 zone looks possible (if a bit ambitious) for a local top, and in the bearish scenario a lower high. Measured move at $5.6K, lots of S/R from the last 5 days right there, and the 0.705 and 0.786 retracement levels from yesterday's dump.

This is a high resistance area, with unconfirmed hidden bearish divergence. The volume trend also seems to imply a bear flag:

Looks like you were right about the bear flag development. I'm still waiting for a third touch-point on support, but getting rejected by volume control isn't promising in the short-term, as well as the handful of touch-points against the resistance trend line:

[exstasie]

There could be another spike upwards first but my gut tells me:



If so, let's see how price reacts to the $4,800 area. It could be a higher low on the way to breaking above $6K.

Didn't quite make it to $4,800 but the market did form a higher low off $5,000 and has now broken above $6K:



We're now back above the 200-week MA, but zooming out, we need to temper our expectations in the short term. Shorts just got smacked down pretty good on Bitfinex. The market has whipsawed near the orange 10-day MA the entire downtrend. We've also got overhead monthly pivot resistance from November and December 2019:



Ideally we'd spike towards that 1.618 extension and next pivot resistance close to $7K, then pull back and bullishly consolidate off the 200-week MA, 10-day MA, and/or $6K pivot area. Confirming those as support would suggest a mid-term uptrend in play.

[exstasie]

Update on the triangle idea, looking good:



It's still premature to assign an EW count to this rally above $6K. I believe we are near the end of (iii) or the beginning (iv) in an impulse Wave C. That means based on the momentum I'm seeing, we can still expect more upside past this $6,441 local high.

As mentioned in the last post, the $6,850 area is a resistance zone. Let's call it R1. Our next resistance level, R2, would be the confluence of this failure candle and the 20-day MA in the $7,300s:



Bullish momentum still looks strong (no divergences) and volume seems to be confirming the short term uptrend. The 4-hour chart shows three white soldiers, which also suggests more upside to come after a brief pullback.

Watch for a reaction off R1. If we reach R2, it's a pretty clear sell. We are not going to the moon yet, gentlemen. Even in the most bullish of scenarios, the market will likely come back to test previous resistances in the $5K-$6K area.

[exstasie]

It's still premature to assign an EW count to this rally above $6K. I believe we are near the end of (iii) or the beginning (iv) in an impulse Wave C. That means based on the momentum I'm seeing, we can still expect more upside past this $6,441 local high.

As mentioned in the last post, the $6,850 area is a resistance zone. Let's call it R1.

Now that price has reacted to R1, I can share the EW count I've been operating off:



We're now looking for a dip to the $6K area, the 0.382 retracement. Since Wave (ii) was sideways, we should expect Wave (iv) to be sharp like a zig zag. I would like to see the 30-minute Elliott Wave Oscillator dip below the zero line to help confirm this interpretation:



My preferred count is another leg up to R2 ($7,350 area) which should be a significant mid-term top. Alternatively, we are already in Wave [ B ] and are headed back towards the 200-week MA.

[exstasie]

We're now looking for a dip to the $6K area, the 0.382 retracement. Since Wave (ii) was sideways, we should expect Wave (iv) to be sharp like a zig zag. I would like to see the 30-minute Elliott Wave Oscillator dip below the zero line to help confirm this interpretation:

Well we got that sharp retracement:



Unfortunately it went all the way to the 0.5. That's our first warning that maybe we're no longer in an impulsive uptrend, and a bearish reversal already occurred. The market also didn't retain good channel form.

The uptrend from $5,657 does not look impulsive either, another warning the uptrend already terminated. This really doesn't look like a wave (v):



When I went to bed last night, I was feeling 60-40 bullish about trend continuation. Now I would say I'm 80-20 bearish. The 0.5-0.786 area outlined above is probably the ceiling before lower lows.

In the alternative case, if bulls can bust through that resistance area ($6,700s) with authority, then I would still look to R2 (low $7,000s) for a major bearish inflection point. It's been an awesome ride but shorts have already been punished hard (down 40% on Bitfinex) and I think the upside is limited. I believe the market wants to confirm last week's levels (lower $5,000s or maybe the $4,000s) as support before any sustainable move up.

[exstasie]

The market retraced to the 0.618 area at $6,470. The [c] of (B) looks like a failure. I think we can say with good probability the uptrend is over, and we have now formed a significant lower high.

This would be typical:



The Corona virus news continues to worsen, at least in the Western world. I'm not excited to see where CME pre-market futures open in a few hours. I suppose stocks and BTC will both decline into the last week of March, hopefully without too much more panic. I'm anticipating a significant relief rally in late March, early April as the prospects for a global recovery (hopefully) improve.