Altcoin bubble by 2023; capitalization up to 150 times, a research suggests

[alexkamillakroy]

Recent logarithmic analysis by analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that, by 2023, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could exceed $11 trillion.

This is "medium case" scenario, while "extreme case" scenario offers the total capitalization of $32 trillion, with prices boost up to 150 times. While Bitcoin exchange rate at this scenario is at ~ $141K for 1 BTC, its total market share will drop to 23%, leaving space for "altcoin bubble" (which is plausible in both scenarios).

The analysis is performed based on weekly data on the price movements of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Source: https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html

What do you think? Will altcoins be the future of the cryptocurrency market, or is it too distant and insignificant future to consider? Is the market too volatile for any sort of longterm predictions, or does it sound plausible to take into account such researches while investing?

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[asriloni]

he was using logarithmic as the main data to determine the market direction. in 2 years from now and everything can happen just like there will be more taxation to the crypto users or even banning news that can come any time. There is no reason to predict it at least you have a non sense expectation to the crypto. How much experts are getting failed to predict the price of bitcoin this year has become the real evidence if it's not worth to follow that guy.

Just try to forget the bubble as the institutional has already made their own solution. Altcoin will not play a big role in the future.

[Yurkov]

It seems to me that his calculations are based on the fact that after halving, Bitcoin price should start to grow faster and on the whole cryptocurrency market should start new, much longer and several times larger than the last bull run. Theoretically, Altcoins prices should start rising with the price of Bitcoin.
However, this is only a very optimistic theory. It is enough that something unexpected happens and the bear market will last another two years. Anything could happen.

[Cnut237]

The problem with making predictions in an area that has a history of exponential growth, particularly when the prediction is a continuation of that exponential curve, is that it is very easy be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Yes the prediction could turn out to be accurate, but the range of plausible prices for bitcoin in a few years' time ranges from zero dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars. I would take every prediction as more of a wild guess than anything to rely upon.

[Danne87]

It seems to me that his calculations are based on the fact that after halving, Bitcoin price should start to grow faster and on the whole cryptocurrency market should start new, much longer and several times larger than the last bull run. Theoretically, Altcoins prices should start rising with the price of Bitcoin.
However, this is only a very optimistic theory. It is enough that something unexpected happens and the bear market will last another two years. Anything could happen.

in any case with halving, the situation in the price will change, but do not forget that, if desired, any states or billionaires can change the price as they like

[Yurkov]

It seems to me that his calculations are based on the fact that after halving, Bitcoin price should start to grow faster and on the whole cryptocurrency market should start new, much longer and several times larger than the last bull run. Theoretically, Altcoins prices should start rising with the price of Bitcoin.
However, this is only a very optimistic theory. It is enough that something unexpected happens and the bear market will last another two years. Anything could happen.

in any case with halving, the situation in the price will change, but do not forget that, if desired, any states or billionaires can change the price as they like

Until market capitalization increases whales will definitely try to manipulate the market. However, notice that halving will reduce the "reward" for finding the block by half, and this is once again. At the beginning reward was 50 BTC, now it will be only 6.25 BTC. This will reduce the supply on the market, and let's not forget that demand is still growing. The price just has to go up.

[Pumuckel21]

If you think about it, it is very unlikely to happen the GDP of Germany is 3,3 Billion so the crypto market would be three times as high as the german GDP is. This is a number you have to break into little parts in order to see how much it actually is.

[slaman29]

I always think people way overestimate bitcoin and crypto, and of course they would when their entire fortunes are resting on it. But personally, I think people need to take the lowest extreme scenario and work from that. I mean, 2023 is only 4 years away. $11 trillion in medium case? What is low case? That's what we should be working on first.

[wheelz1200]

Recent logarithmic analysis by analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that, by 2023, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could exceed $11 trillion.

This is "medium case" scenario, while "extreme case" scenario offers the total capitalization of $32 trillion, with prices boost up to 150 times. While Bitcoin exchange rate at this scenario is at ~ $141K for 1 BTC, its total market share will drop to 23%, leaving space for "altcoin bubble" (which is plausible in both scenarios).

The analysis is performed based on weekly data on the price movements of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Source: https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html

What do you think? Will altcoins be the future of the cryptocurrency market, or is it too distant and insignificant future to consider? Is the market too volatile for any sort of longterm predictions, or does it sound plausible to take into account such researches while investing?

I think this research is all based on guessing.  Can it happen yep, can it completely fall flat on its face, yep.  Predicting usd value of bitcoin in 2023 is silly.  3 years from now bitcoin can be $1k or it could be $500k, there is good research out there for both.  As far as altcoins and where they could land 150x on today's value seems like a stretch for me.  That's a ton of incoming money needed on alts I just dont see it in 3 years but I wouldn't say that that assessment is based on anything but gut feeling

[zeze18]

I always think people way overestimate bitcoin and crypto, and of course they would when their entire fortunes are resting on it. But personally, I think people need to take the lowest extreme scenario and work from that. I mean, 2023 is only 4 years away. $11 trillion in medium case? What is low case? That's what we should be working on first.

As a crypto person we always have to be ready with any worst condition like bitcoin and cryptocurrency will not exist anymore in the future years. From the first time invest in crypto we have to know that nothing guarantee our capital will comeback and we have to ready if all of our money will be gone. That is the only way to be happily invest in crypto

[ashmodeus]

well , that a huge prediction , i mean if that really happen , actually we will see some signal as the time goes, i mean , ok we cant say that prediction is wrong or true, but if it going to be true , price , domination of bitcoin , must be raising every year.
but now , i cant see any signal about it.

[deadthings]

All crypto investor will pray for all these predictions to be true:

This corresponds to the exchange rate of $ 141,000 per coin. In this case, the dominance of Bitcoin will be only 23%. The "altcoin bubble" is also possible, when their rates will grow faster than the rate of the first cryptocurrency.
https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html

But my honest feedback about this is that 141k per bitcoin seems too irrational, if we see bitcoin adoption, usage, and real-world use cases.

[bustedsynx]

Recent logarithmic analysis by analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that, by 2023, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could exceed $11 trillion.

This is "medium case" scenario, while "extreme case" scenario offers the total capitalization of $32 trillion, with prices boost up to 150 times. While Bitcoin exchange rate at this scenario is at ~ $141K for 1 BTC, its total market share will drop to 23%, leaving space for "altcoin bubble" (which is plausible in both scenarios).

The analysis is performed based on weekly data on the price movements of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Source: https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html

What do you think? Will altcoins be the future of the cryptocurrency market, or is it too distant and insignificant future to consider? Is the market too volatile for any sort of longterm predictions, or does it sound plausible to take into account such researches while investing?

Nothing is too distant. Bitcoin has a long history of price action that indicates the study or research can be true because all coins depend on Bitcoin's health.Because it acts as the index of all.

[eaLiTy]

Recent logarithmic analysis by analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that, by 2023, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could exceed $11 trillion.

It is a broader term to suggest the capitalization of crytocurrency market could exceed multiple times the current valuation and there are no specific coins that majority of the investments comes. The only problem i see with this analysis is the short period of the market and to calculate the  exponential growth in a short period you might not even get the correct valuation. In hindsight it is quite impressive to see but it is highly unlikely we will see an exponential growth of $11 trillion in the next three years.

[adroitful_one]

All crypto investor will pray for all these predictions to be true:

This corresponds to the exchange rate of $ 141,000 per coin. In this case, the dominance of Bitcoin will be only 23%. The "altcoin bubble" is also possible, when their rates will grow faster than the rate of the first cryptocurrency.
https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html

But my honest feedback about this is that 141k per bitcoin seems too irrational, if we see bitcoin adoption, usage, and real-world use cases.

I think in the short term that $141,000 number is probably a little bit exaggerated, but in the longer term, I think it's more than plausible. The only issue I have with the predictions in this article is how soon they will be. I just don't see hitting those numbers in such a short amount of time. But, I also said I didn't think we'd see $20k/Bitcoin when it was at $1,000 either. I guess time will tell.

[Karto]

i can't think that much forward in so specific predictions..
i can just say that there will be more bubbles in the future and that cryptocurrency market will grow a lot
without exact years and dates
just keep investing if you believe, and dont base it on articles like this but on your own analysis nd opinion

[jossiel]

We love this kind of analysis which is in favor of us and analysis that we would like to hear. But I say, everything is possible just like what satoshi said about transactions in the future that it can be bigger as we think or there will be no transactions anymore.

At least this analysis isn't that much as what John McAfee said about bitcoin to hit $1M by 2020. We're already on that year few days from now and we'll have to wait for 12 more months with the consequence that he promised.

Regardless of these predictions, I'm optimistic as a long term hodler.

[magneto]

It's highly unlikely for alts to rally to any extent close to the 2017 bull run that it saw.

Sure, there could be a bubble forming soon as a result of the hype brought by BTC's halving, but to suggest that this bubble will last until 2023 is a bit of a stretch in my honest opinion. Usually, bullish sentiments carry over in around 2 year cycles before slipping into a bear market like we are right now as opposed to 4 year cycles, which is sufficient for a halving event in itself.

Also, research like this is barely useful. There is simply no tangible proof to back it up with the way how regulation changes can all of a sudden affect markets without previous warning.

[Mahanton]

We love this kind of analysis which is in favor of us and analysis that we would like to hear. But I say, everything is possible just like what satoshi said about transactions in the future that it can be bigger as we think or there will be no transactions anymore.

At least this analysis isn't that much as what John McAfee said about bitcoin to hit $1M by 2020. We're already on that year few days from now and we'll have to wait for 12 more months with the consequence that he promised.

Regardless of these predictions, I'm optimistic as a long term hodler.

Being optimistic isnt really that bad as long we do stick to these realistic numbers.We know on whats the potential of cryptocurrency on upcoming years to come but it wont really be that fast for
it to reach that marketcap numbers.

For now we should at least go with the flow, adoption is still on the move and we do hope that we do come to those points that we havent reached up but we shouldnt rush up because
things will happen on the exact time.

[Lagduf]

i can't think that much forward in so specific predictions..
i can just say that there will be more bubbles in the future and that cryptocurrency market will grow a lot
without exact years and dates
just keep investing if you believe, and dont base it on articles like this but on your own analysis nd opinion

that depends on how good the development progress that is happening right now in the cryptocurrency. If you are thinking the bubble will come in the future and that's true no doubt about that. The market must prove it to the regulators if crypto can do better and better.
The exact date about when the bubble will come can't be determined and some people are just saying it based on their opinions.
So many times i have been following various experts and more than 80% are failed to predict the future. With mass adoption and that will become the true story but crypto must prove itself.