El duderino_ (OP)
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December 29, 2019, 03:45:33 PM Last edit: January 03, 2020, 01:03:02 AM by micgoossens |
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This game will open somewhere in January at a random time and date, I only wanna share a heads up now that this game will be a bit different.
One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one) Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available.
A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits, as these games are mostly for longer contributing forum members, so if some are short a bit, then still there are at least some days maybe weeks to earn some.... Also there most be some recent activity.
I will also have a side question probably ....
More news and stuff and rules will be in the OP when the game is open... (It will mostly mean people can't get very boxed in and no one have to wait to put in there price last minute)
Open for questions or ideas as well.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 29, 2019, 03:45:57 PM |
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reserved
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o_e_l_e_o
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December 29, 2019, 05:04:33 PM |
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A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits
Open for questions or ideas as well. Earned merits?
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 29, 2019, 05:27:00 PM |
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A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits
Open for questions or ideas as well. Earned merits? That’s always a difficult one ..... but I think from now I have to say yes earned ones as the merit system is a forum thing we all have to live and work with so people on the forum that respect the place will earn some merits and contribute to the place If this is to much it’s still open for discussion, I just trying to improve the games.... price is relatively big so I just only want it would be won under best circumstances.
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figmentofmyass
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December 29, 2019, 06:15:46 PM |
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micgoossens, you should change the thread title IMO. last time you put "game" in the title, moderators moved it to the games and rounds board---and it subsequently died. i hate the moderators on this forum.....
+1 on the "earned merits" bit. too many bought/sold accounts around here.
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TheBeardedBaby
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December 29, 2019, 06:32:51 PM |
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Its time for me to reserve a spot. I always miss the fun with a few days, but not this time. I'll keep an eye for the opening Happy New Year
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rdluffy
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December 29, 2019, 07:15:43 PM |
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Oh, great again I made my prediction to the end of the year, but I already know that is impossible to win with my price range Now I'll try to predict better and who knows win this with the halving
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dragonvslinux
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December 29, 2019, 10:16:28 PM |
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One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one) Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available.
Nice idea, though surely it would be more fair not to have a $51 range between guesses. For example, if most people wanted to bet that the price would be (for example) $10K, then wouldn't it make more sense to allow everyone to squeeze their bids into this, whether they be only dollars apart, so everyone still has a fair chance? Otherwise the game risks having the "popular prices" already taken, and members having to guess less favorable prices (to their predictions). Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. Even if 100 members tick the same box that is the winning price, to me this makes the game a lot fairer. I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident... The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize. Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers!
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 29, 2019, 11:48:50 PM |
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Gonna enter a HODLsleep right now, and come back on it tomorrow....
Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?
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1miau
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December 29, 2019, 11:49:03 PM |
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I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions. A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: Better visualized: Range down | predicted | Range up | ____________________ | ____________________ | ____________________ | 9,975$ | 10,000$ | 10,025$ | 10,026 | | 10,049$ | 10,050$ | 10,075$ | 10,100$ |
Or isn't this red range blocked?
Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price).
Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?
I like your decision so far. 100% support. The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo mining predicting vs. mining predicting in pools.
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STT
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December 29, 2019, 11:59:50 PM Last edit: December 30, 2019, 12:14:41 AM by STT |
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In reality it'll be lower It might need to be done in $50 increments to allow the best spacing yea Hate is a strong word, hesitate to aquience on a point of order I agree with the point about title though, its more open speculation since all factors are real. The range rule is probably good for encouraging people to guess earlier rather then later in order to stake a claim to that range of feasible prices. I dont think its too unfair as the price is never going to be precise, if my guess were 10k then I cant say I really know if it will be anywhere from 9700 to 10300. So thats about 13 people who can go near to 10k. Maybe others really are more precise then that, but if we're talking over months I think its ok as trajectory is only going to be within an area. I guessed 6613 last go and here we are near to year end at over 800 dollars away but I dont consider myself horribly wrong, I was in the rough area.
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pooya87
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December 30, 2019, 05:04:00 AM |
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In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:
that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter
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. .BLACKJACK ♠ FUN. | | | ███▄██████ ██████████████▀ ████████████ █████████████████ ████████████████▄▄ ░█████████████▀░▀▀ ██████████████████ ░██████████████ █████████████████▄ ░██████████████▀ ████████████ ███████████████░██ ██████████ | | CRYPTO CASINO & SPORTS BETTING | | │ | | │ | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ███████████████████████ █████████████████████ ███████████████████ ▀███████████████▀ ███████████████████ | | .
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bitcoinPsycho
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Your a legend Mic love your games;)
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 10:12:59 AM Last edit: January 01, 2020, 01:25:08 AM by mprep |
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Your a legend Mic love your games;)
I did became legendary indeed a few weeks-moths ago Thanks for being a part of that !!!
I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions. A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: Better visualized: Range down | predicted | Range up | ____________________ | ____________________ | ____________________ | 9,975$ | 10,000$ | 10,025$ | 10,026 | | 10,049$ | 10,050$ | 10,075$ | 10,100$ |
Or isn't this red range blocked?
Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price).
Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?
I like your decision so far. 100% support. The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo mining predicting vs. mining predicting in pools. I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:
that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter Let us hope 2020 brings those kinds of numeric values Also remember the date of the game isn't set yet, it will have to do something with the halving ...
SO, on the one side I have; *price guess with UP and DOWN ranges for your guess like 7550 would mean all the prices from 7525-7575 are the ones for that guess not to be harmed by any other member *price guess in "tick box" what would mean from zero to ..... all prices are in boxes of 200 (not sure if that would be the chosen box open for discussion) but just to explain the system... like 0-200,201-400,401-600,601-800............. are boxes and everyone can go in every box, at the end the winning box will divide the price thats awarded for the game I will open a poll for this?? O do I got it wrong?
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o_e_l_e_o
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December 30, 2019, 10:31:48 AM |
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I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess. Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 10:44:44 AM |
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I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess. Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price. A bit of a mix of them both ... I like the idea, lets make a poll BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target... Of-course in a game like this, you can't serve everyone equally, there is always a difference in how others think... Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy On the other hand its much better to don't have any gaps of 10-20... $, though for some its nice to have these gaps the get some larger ranges etc lol
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Last of the V8s
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December 30, 2019, 11:00:05 AM |
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I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess. Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price. This is the way.
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o_e_l_e_o
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December 30, 2019, 11:04:23 AM Last edit: December 30, 2019, 11:21:00 AM by o_e_l_e_o Merited by Last of the V8s (1) |
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This is the way.
I have spoken.
Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
Yeah, it's good.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 11:07:18 AM |
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This is the way.
I have spoken. Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
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Last of the V8s
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December 30, 2019, 11:13:33 AM |
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This is the way.
I have spoken. Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand It's good enough. Maybe swap 'aloud' for 'allowed'. People should be able to say, 'I'll take the 751-800 slot because my ocelot oscillator and 1337 ma indicator says 777 dollars on the due date' afaiu
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 11:14:25 AM |
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This is the way.
I have spoken. Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand It's good enough. Maybe swap 'aloud' for 'allowed'. Damn
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TheBeardedBaby
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December 30, 2019, 12:13:35 PM |
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One pick one winner. Imagine everyone picks only one range, then everyone wins and you have to share 100-200 satoshi in between. Of course it won't happen but the chance to stick with someone else's suggestion to win is quite higher. Fewer chosen ranges, higher chance to win. just saying...
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LFC_Bitcoin
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December 30, 2019, 01:48:33 PM |
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It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 02:25:26 PM Last edit: January 12, 2020, 01:44:57 AM by mprep |
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It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.
Top poster & top guy.
Yeah, don’t needed really it’s specially to celebrate a new year with an amazing event in the community “the halving” it will have everyone on the edge of there seats I guess and I hope I can make a winner happy !!! Though THX anyway, but I always now you got my back
Damn still only 9 voting people
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Dabs
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December 30, 2019, 05:02:00 PM |
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Picking from a set range would fit most people. You can define the range starting from say, 1001-1050, 1051-1100, 1101-1150 ...
Not sure if 50 is good, might be easier to do 100, so it becomes 1001-1100, .... or 1000-1099, 1100-1199, 1200-1299
You just have to set the rules what the range is, and the first one who takes a particular range gets it. Too bad for others, they can either pick something else, or pick the same one (but they don't win if that's the result.)
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bitserve
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December 30, 2019, 06:57:14 PM |
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The option to share the slots (that I suggested while in a mild intoxicated state mind you ) could be an interesting experiment and also it would depend if you Mic would like to have multiple winners sharing the price instead of "one winner takes it all" but... It doesn't fix the "better to wait for a late pick" strategy problem I was trying to address. That's why I posted another (again poorly worded) post the next day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.380If the slots are shareable it will still be better strategy to wait before making your pick, because you will be always able to chose ANY slot. On the other hand, if there are preselected slots available in a first-come-first-served way earlier picks will be incentivised, as the "best slots" (which is very subjective and many times proved otherwise in the end) will be gone for late picks. Also while the $25 above and under a pick seems to be fair, it allows for an strategy of: - Be quick in decide your pick, but don't post it yet. - Wait for someone make a pick near your target zone. - Now add $24 above or $24 under that pick and post that as your pick. That way you have locked additional "winning range" for your pick (and for the one you used to "pivot") and it is still in your "target zone". And you have "unfairly" reduced available space for next picks. Conclusion: I would preset the slots in the way oeleo has said. The wording for the rules would be easy: Your picks must end either in 01 or 50. For a pick ending in 01, ie 7801, the winning range would be 7776 to 7825. For the pick 7851, the winning range would be 7826 to 7875. Of course the winning range could be even wider if there are no near picks around, but that is the minimum "unboxeable" range. So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do). Simple, easier and non exploitable.
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19VBmRQVqrtNTGiwngZutwREagcKxJgVZM
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Dabs
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December 30, 2019, 07:29:07 PM |
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The "I have spoken" dude didn't quite ... oh wait.. spoiler alert ... anyway, you know what I mean if you've seen it.
And then there were those mercenaries making fun of "this is his way.." .. but well, ... still awesome.
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o_e_l_e_o
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So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do). Who's to say what's a crazy range. I think as mic's previous competitions have shown us, the majority of us seem to be consistently overly bullish. Unless you really believe in the accuracy of your TA, the best tactic might be to wait until a few minutes before closing time and pick a price which will gives you the largest gaps between the next closest predictions to maximize your range. Conversely, waiting until the end you may well only be left truly outlandish predictions. Who knows? Mic's last competition had 181 entries, so 50 dollar brackets would give a minimum 9k price spread, which I think is reasonable. 100 dollar brackets would need a 18k spread. Given that some brackets will go unclaimed, and we are assuming this competition will be bigger than the last, I think 50 dollar brackets seems correct.
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Heisenberg_Hunter
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December 30, 2019, 08:14:25 PM |
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I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty Spammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 08:15:22 PM |
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@o_e_l_e_o, will merit your posts later, they where very helpful and well liked as the poll is showing...
I don't know but this kind of game exclude the strategy of waiting and taking as much as possible spots, as some will not be in the position with one right above and right below, what could be annoying.
Thx for all those with input and help to try create a better game.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 08:21:01 PM |
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I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty Spammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.
I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.
Yes sir I would like to now put in 25 earned merit as a reasonable nr I think, for the time the merit system is here, most could achieve 25, as the game is mostly meant for longer contributing members as well, so new people could be encouraged to write well and try to earn merit to be on a next game ... For second i'm not the guy with the knowledge who are the real scammers are Alt's of others, if someone with appropriate knowledge about this matter and would help out then I would certainly wanna implement this, but me alone isn't the right guy to decide such things..... Who will who could ??
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Last of the V8s
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December 30, 2019, 08:31:29 PM |
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I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.
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LFC_Bitcoin
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December 30, 2019, 08:32:04 PM |
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Maybe we could have one winner takes all for the bitcoin prize but 2nd & 3rd closest gets some Merit or something. I’d be happy to help & send 20 or something into a pot at the end Only a suggestion, if it’s a dumb idea somebody tell me to STFU 1st prize - 0.x amount of BTC2nd prize - 50 Merit 3rd prize - 25 Merit
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o_e_l_e_o
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December 30, 2019, 08:34:58 PM |
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The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example. (I just pulled those numbers out of thin air. I appreciate that my view on earning merits is very different to the "average" forum user, so I don't know what a reasonable amount of merit per month is.) And only count merit earned up until the announcement of the competition, so spammers can't quickly trade merit between accounts and then enter. Any other method would be very resource intensive as someone would have to be manually checking everyone's posting history, as well as pretty subjective as to who is classed as a "spammer" and who isn't.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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December 30, 2019, 09:01:43 PM |
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I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.
Yeah maybe good people tell me, nutildah ones told me a guy entering twice... so he's a good one to take a look for such things Probably you as well
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bitserve
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December 30, 2019, 10:28:16 PM |
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I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list.
For alts and all that stuff I am sure there will be people in the know that will voice it when/if that happens.
Other alternatives would probably put an additional and unnecessary work on you.
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19VBmRQVqrtNTGiwngZutwREagcKxJgVZM
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Questat
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January 01, 2020, 10:32:07 PM |
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Good thing that 25 earned merits are not from the last 120 says, otherwise, I would not qualify for this competition. I'll bookmarked this one so I would be aware when it starts, I think I got 40 merits as of now. so everyone has a range of 51$ at least
I liked the new rule.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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January 01, 2020, 10:43:00 PM |
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^ When the game opens it will follow the o_e_l_e_o idea as the poll made clear most thought this was the best way to go first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up 0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 .... 7001-7050 7051-7100 7101-7150 7151-7200 etc So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again. I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post...
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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asus09
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January 02, 2020, 12:43:29 AM |
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I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post.
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| | . Gamdom | │ | 15% | . CASHBACK FOR THE FIRST 7 DAYS | | | ██████████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████████ | █████████████████████████████████ .
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Questat
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I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post.
Read the OP again and translate it if you can't fully understands it, this is a prediction game which you are required to have at least earned 25 merits to qualified, but it's yet to be finalized and you still have plenty of days to earn that required merits before the game formally starts. according to https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=asus09. it seems like you haven't earn a single merit yet.
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DeathAngel
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January 02, 2020, 02:32:20 PM |
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Read the OP again and translate it if you can't fully understands it, this is a prediction game which you are required to have at least earned 25 merits to qualified, but it's yet to be finalized and you still have plenty of days to earn that required merits before the game formally starts. according to https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=asus09. it seems like you haven't earn a single merit yet.
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LoyceV
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January 02, 2020, 04:00:45 PM |
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Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. Small correction: If someone predicts 7803, the 7777-prediction doesn't cover 7752-7802, but only 7752-7790, and 7790-7828 is "covered" bij prediction 7803. In this case, 7790 overlaps both predictions. BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target... An alternative, and this is a bit more complicated but also a good exercise in using Bitcoin's possibilities, would be to ask everyone to hide their prediction until the entries are closed. So: 1. make up a number ($100,000). 2. sign a message from a Bitcoin address with your prediction and some random text ("$100,000 6632099102860212817669648358652770915593"). 3. post only the signature, don't edit this post anymore. Keep your prediction secret and don't forget your random text! 4. wait for all other participants to do the same, and wait for micgoossens to announce new entries are no longer allowed 5. post the bitcoin address and signed message, this reveals your prediction. 6. now we wait Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy That's too bearish It makes sense for very low predictions, but a $100,000 prediction could still be boxed in between $99,975 and $100,025, which gives it only 0.05% range. Meanwhile, a bear who predicts $500, covers everything from $475 to $525, which gives him a 10% range. If you're going with "boxes", can each box be a percentage of the prediction (say 1%)? So: 1000 covers 995-1005 10,000 covers 9,950-10,050 100,000 covers 99,500-100,500 Damn still only 9 voting people Poll is closed already, I was too late to add my signed message idea. The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example. I could provide a list of qualifying users if this is how it's going to be I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list. As of last Friday, this is the list: 25 Merit earned since the beginning of time the Merit system gives 2957 possible candidates (some of them are banned). It might also be good to add a requirement for how many members sent Merit: a user who received 25 Merit from 1 other user doesn't sound right to me.
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El duderino_ (OP)
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January 02, 2020, 04:34:37 PM |
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@Loyce, very useful as usually THX skill show of Yeah, for the game this time the poll is voted BUT I do like your idea though i'm not that skilled etc then you might need to help me out or something.... Then : Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy That's too bearish It makes sense for very low predictions, but a $100,000 prediction could still be boxed in between $99,975 and $100,025, which gives it only 0.05% range. Meanwhile, a bear who predicts $500, covers everything from $475 to $525, which gives him a 10% range. If you're going with "boxes", can each box be a percentage of the prediction (say 1%)? So: 1000 covers 995-1005 10,000 covers 9,950-10,050 100,000 covers 99,500-100,500 It would be needed to enter a price in following order; ^ When the game opens it will follow the o_e_l_e_o idea as the poll made clear most thought this was the best way to go first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up 0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 .... 7001-7050 7051-7100 7101-7150 7151-7200 etc So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again. I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post... So when X takes 7151-7200 and the lower under him Y takes 7001-7050 and upper one Z takes 8001-8050, then the death space inbetween is for the closest participant, like 7400 would be for A, 7850 would be Z.... I think with this approach people will just write there price and don't need to be afraid to to be stuck whit like almost zero chance... Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving That will be the main thing the when date, probably the game will open soon-ish Just want everybody to maybe already have read the OP so they already have some kind of idea what is gonna happen, probably many will not take boxes and write some non OK prices but yeah thats like every single time that some don't take the time the effort of reading the OP
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El duderino_ (OP)
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January 02, 2020, 04:36:57 PM Last edit: January 02, 2020, 04:59:53 PM by micgoossens |
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Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. Small correction: If someone predicts 7803, the 7777-prediction doesn't cover 7752-7802, but only 7752-7790, and 7790-7828 is "covered" bij prediction 7803. In this case, 7790 overlaps both predictions. This was in discussion but not in play anymore, like 7777 cannot be taken ... it will be like in the above post how o_e_l_e_o suggested and was chosen in the poll...
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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LoyceV
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January 02, 2020, 04:59:13 PM |
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you might need to help me out or something.... Okay example: 1. 100 - 101 2. 102 - 103 3. 104 - 105 4. 106 - 107 5. 108 - 109 6. 110 - 111 7. 112 - 113 8. 114 - 115 9. 116 - 117 10. 118 - 119 11. 120 - 121 12. 122 - 123 13. 124 - 125 14. 126 - 127 15. 128 - 129 16. 130 - 131 17. 132 - 133 18. 134 - 135 19. 136 - 137 20. 138 - 139 21. 140 - 141 22. 142 - 143 23. 144 - 145 24. 146 - 147 25. 148 - 149 26. 150 - 151 27. 152 - 153 28. 154 - 155 29. 156 - 157 30. 158 - 159 31. 160 - 161 32. 162 - 163 33. 164 - 165 34. 166 - 167 35. 168 - 169 36. 170 - 171 37. 172 - 173 38. 174 - 175 39. 176 - 177 40. 178 - 179 41. 180 - 181 42. 182 - 183 43. 184 - 185 44. 186 - 187 45. 188 - 189 46. 190 - 191 47. 192 - 193 48. 194 - 195 49. 196 - 197 50. 198 - 199 51. 200 - 202 52. 203 - 205 53. 206 - 208 54. 209 - 211 55. 212 - 214 56. 215 - 217 57. 218 - 220 58. 221 - 223 59. 224 - 226 60. 227 - 229 61. 230 - 232 62. 233 - 235 63. 236 - 238 64. 239 - 241 65. 242 - 244 66. 245 - 247 67. 248 - 250 68. 251 - 253 69. 254 - 256 70. 257 - 259 71. 260 - 262 72. 263 - 265 73. 266 - 268 74. 269 - 271 75. 272 - 274 76. 275 - 277 77. 278 - 280 78. 281 - 283 79. 284 - 286 80. 287 - 289 81. 290 - 292 82. 293 - 295 83. 296 - 298 84. 299 - 301 85. 302 - 305 86. 306 - 309 87. 310 - 313 88. 314 - 317 89. 318 - 321 90. 322 - 325 91. 326 - 329 92. 330 - 333 93. 334 - 337 94. 338 - 341 95. 342 - 345 96. 346 - 349 97. 350 - 353 98. 354 - 357 99. 358 - 361 100. 362 - 365 101. 366 - 369 102. 370 - 373 103. 374 - 377 104. 378 - 381 105. 382 - 385 106. 386 - 389 107. 390 - 393 108. 394 - 397 109. 398 - 401 110. 402 - 406 111. 407 - 411 112. 412 - 416 113. 417 - 421 114. 422 - 426 115. 427 - 431 116. 432 - 436 117. 437 - 441 118. 442 - 446 119. 447 - 451 120. 452 - 456 121. 457 - 461 122. 462 - 466 123. 467 - 471 124. 472 - 476 125. 477 - 481 126. 482 - 486 127. 487 - 491 128. 492 - 496 129. 497 - 501 130. 502 - 507 131. 508 - 513 132. 514 - 519 133. 520 - 525 134. 526 - 531 135. 532 - 537 136. 538 - 543 137. 544 - 549 138. 550 - 555 139. 556 - 561 140. 562 - 567 141. 568 - 573 142. 574 - 579 143. 580 - 585 144. 586 - 591 145. 592 - 597 146. 598 - 603 147. 604 - 610 148. 611 - 617 149. 618 - 624 150. 625 - 631 151. 632 - 638 152. 639 - 645 153. 646 - 652 154. 653 - 659 155. 660 - 666 156. 667 - 673 157. 674 - 680 158. 681 - 687 159. 688 - 694 160. 695 - 701 161. 702 - 709 162. 710 - 717 163. 718 - 725 164. 726 - 733 165. 734 - 741 166. 742 - 749 167. 750 - 757 168. 758 - 765 169. 766 - 773 170. 774 - 781 171. 782 - 789 172. 790 - 797 173. 798 - 805 174. 806 - 814 175. 815 - 823 176. 824 - 832 177. 833 - 841 178. 842 - 850 179. 851 - 859 180. 860 - 868 181. 869 - 877 182. 878 - 886 183. 887 - 895 184. 896 - 904 185. 905 - 914 186. 915 - 924 187. 925 - 934 188. 935 - 944 189. 945 - 954 190. 955 - 964 191. 965 - 974 192. 975 - 984 193. 985 - 994 194. 995 - 1004 195. 1005 - 1015 196. 1016 - 1026 197. 1027 - 1037 198. 1038 - 1048 199. 1049 - 1059 200. 1060 - 1070 201. 1071 - 1081 202. 1082 - 1092 203. 1093 - 1103 204. 1104 - 1115 205. 1116 - 1127 206. 1128 - 1139 207. 1140 - 1151 208. 1152 - 1163 209. 1164 - 1175 210. 1176 - 1187 211. 1188 - 1199 212. 1200 - 1212 213. 1213 - 1225 214. 1226 - 1238 215. 1239 - 1251 216. 1252 - 1264 217. 1265 - 1277 218. 1278 - 1290 219. 1291 - 1303 220. 1304 - 1317 221. 1318 - 1331 222. 1332 - 1345 223. 1346 - 1359 224. 1360 - 1373 225. 1374 - 1387 226. 1388 - 1401 227. 1402 - 1416 228. 1417 - 1431 229. 1432 - 1446 230. 1447 - 1461 231. 1462 - 1476 232. 1477 - 1491 233. 1492 - 1506 234. 1507 - 1522 235. 1523 - 1538 236. 1539 - 1554 237. 1555 - 1570 238. 1571 - 1586 239. 1587 - 1602 240. 1603 - 1619 241. 1620 - 1636 242. 1637 - 1653 243. 1654 - 1670 244. 1671 - 1687 245. 1688 - 1704 246. 1705 - 1722 247. 1723 - 1740 248. 1741 - 1758 249. 1759 - 1776 250. 1777 - 1794 251. 1795 - 1812 252. 1813 - 1831 253. 1832 - 1850 254. 1851 - 1869 255. 1870 - 1888 256. 1889 - 1907 257. 1908 - 1927 258. 1928 - 1947 259. 1948 - 1967 260. 1968 - 1987 261. 1988 - 2007 262. 2008 - 2028 263. 2029 - 2049 264. 2050 - 2070 265. 2071 - 2091 266. 2092 - 2112 267. 2113 - 2134 268. 2135 - 2156 269. 2157 - 2178 270. 2179 - 2200 271. 2201 - 2223 272. 2224 - 2246 273. 2247 - 2269 274. 2270 - 2292 275. 2293 - 2315 276. 2316 - 2339 277. 2340 - 2363 278. 2364 - 2387 279. 2388 - 2411 280. 2412 - 2436 281. 2437 - 2461 282. 2462 - 2486 283. 2487 - 2511 284. 2512 - 2537 285. 2538 - 2563 286. 2564 - 2589 287. 2590 - 2615 288. 2616 - 2642 289. 2643 - 2669 290. 2670 - 2696 291. 2697 - 2723 292. 2724 - 2751 293. 2752 - 2779 294. 2780 - 2807 295. 2808 - 2836 296. 2837 - 2865 297. 2866 - 2894 298. 2895 - 2923 299. 2924 - 2953 300. 2954 - 2983 301. 2984 - 3013 302. 3014 - 3044 303. 3045 - 3075 304. 3076 - 3106 305. 3107 - 3138 306. 3139 - 3170 307. 3171 - 3202 308. 3203 - 3235 309. 3236 - 3268 310. 3269 - 3301 311. 3302 - 3335 312. 3336 - 3369 313. 3370 - 3403 314. 3404 - 3438 315. 3439 - 3473 316. 3474 - 3508 317. 3509 - 3544 318. 3545 - 3580 319. 3581 - 3616 320. 3617 - 3653 321. 3654 - 3690 322. 3691 - 3727 323. 3728 - 3765 324. 3766 - 3803 325. 3804 - 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59992 601. 59993 - 60592 602. 60593 - 61198 603. 61199 - 61810 604. 61811 - 62429 605. 62430 - 63054 606. 63055 - 63685 607. 63686 - 64322 608. 64323 - 64966 609. 64967 - 65616 610. 65617 - 66273 611. 66274 - 66936 612. 66937 - 67606 613. 67607 - 68283 614. 68284 - 68966 615. 68967 - 69656 616. 69657 - 70353 617. 70354 - 71057 618. 71058 - 71768 619. 71769 - 72486 620. 72487 - 73211 621. 73212 - 73944 622. 73945 - 74684 623. 74685 - 75431 624. 75432 - 76186 625. 76187 - 76948 626. 76949 - 77718 627. 77719 - 78496 628. 78497 - 79281 629. 79282 - 80074 630. 80075 - 80875 631. 80876 - 81684 632. 81685 - 82501 633. 82502 - 83327 634. 83328 - 84161 635. 84162 - 85003 636. 85004 - 85854 637. 85855 - 86713 638. 86714 - 87581 639. 87582 - 88457 640. 88458 - 89342 641. 89343 - 90236 642. 90237 - 91139 643. 91140 - 92051 644. 92052 - 92972 645. 92973 - 93902 646. 93903 - 94842 647. 94843 - 95791 648. 95792 - 96749 649. 96750 - 97717 650. 97718 - 98695 651. 98696 - 99682 652. 99683 - 100679 653. 100680 - 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163974 702. 163975 - 165614 703. 165615 - 167271 704. 167272 - 168944 705. 168945 - 170634 706. 170635 - 172341 707. 172342 - 174065 708. 174066 - 175806 709. 175807 - 177565 710. 177566 - 179341 711. 179342 - 181135 712. 181136 - 182947 713. 182948 - 184777 714. 184778 - 186625 715. 186626 - 188492 716. 188493 - 190377 717. 190378 - 192281 718. 192282 - 194204 719. 194205 - 196147 720. 196148 - 198109 721. 198110 - 200091 722. 200092 - 202092 723. 202093 - 204113 724. 204114 - 206155 725. 206156 - 208217 726. 208218 - 210300 727. 210301 - 212404 728. 212405 - 214529 729. 214530 - 216675 730. 216676 - 218842 731. 218843 - 221031 732. 221032 - 223242 733. 223243 - 225475 734. 225476 - 227730 735. 227731 - 230008 736. 230009 - 232309 737. 232310 - 234633 738. 234634 - 236980 739. 236981 - 239350 740. 239351 - 241744 741. 241745 - 244162 742. 244163 - 246604 743. 246605 - 249071 744. 249072 - 251562 745. 251563 - 254078 746. 254079 - 256619 747. 256620 - 259186 748. 259187 - 261778 749. 261779 - 264396 750. 264397 - 267040 751. 267041 - 269711 752. 269712 - 272409 753. 272410 - 275134 754. 275135 - 277886 755. 277887 - 280665 756. 280666 - 283472 757. 283473 - 286307 758. 286308 - 289171 759. 289172 - 292063 760. 292064 - 294984 761. 294985 - 297934 762. 297935 - 300914 763. 300915 - 303924 764. 303925 - 306964 765. 306965 - 310034 766. 310035 - 313135 767. 313136 - 316267 768. 316268 - 319430 769. 319431 - 322625 770. 322626 - 325852 771. 325853 - 329111 772. 329112 - 332403 773. 332404 - 335728 774. 335729 - 339086 775. 339087 - 342477 776. 342478 - 345902 777. 345903 - 349362 778. 349363 - 352856 779. 352857 - 356385 780. 356386 - 359949 781. 359950 - 363549 782. 363550 - 367185 783. 367186 - 370857 784. 370858 - 374566 785. 374567 - 378312 786. 378313 - 382096 787. 382097 - 385917 788. 385918 - 389777 789. 389778 - 393675 790. 393676 - 397612 791. 397613 - 401589 792. 401590 - 405605 793. 405606 - 409662 794. 409663 - 413759 795. 413760 - 417897 796. 417898 - 422076 797. 422077 - 426297 798. 426298 - 430560 799. 430561 - 434866 800. 434867 - 439215 801. 439216 - 443608 802. 443609 - 448045 803. 448046 - 452526 804. 452527 - 457052 805. 457053 - 461623 806. 461624 - 466240 807. 466241 - 470903 808. 470904 - 475613 809. 475614 - 480370 810. 480371 - 485174 811. 485175 - 490026 812. 490027 - 494927 813. 494928 - 499877 814. 499878 - 504876 815. 504877 - 509925 816. 509926 - 515025 817. 515026 - 520176 818. 520177 - 525378 819. 525379 - 530632 820. 530633 - 535939 821. 535940 - 541299 822. 541300 - 546713 823. 546714 - 552181 824. 552182 - 557703 825. 557704 - 563281 826. 563282 - 568914 827. 568915 - 574604 828. 574605 - 580351 829. 580352 - 586155 830. 586156 - 592017 831. 592018 - 597938 832. 597939 - 603918 833. 603919 - 609958 834. 609959 - 616058 835. 616059 - 622219 836. 622220 - 628442 837. 628443 - 634727 838. 634728 - 641075 839. 641076 - 647486 840. 647487 - 653961 841. 653962 - 660501 842. 660502 - 667107 843. 667108 - 673779 844. 673780 - 680517 845. 680518 - 687323 846. 687324 - 694197 847. 694198 - 701139 848. 701140 - 708151 849. 708152 - 715233 850. 715234 - 722386 851. 722387 - 729610 852. 729611 - 736907 853. 736908 - 744277 854. 744278 - 751720 855. 751721 - 759238 856. 759239 - 766831 857. 766832 - 774500 858. 774501 - 782246 859. 782247 - 790069 860. 790070 - 797970 861. 797971 - 805950 862. 805951 - 814010 863. 814011 - 822151 864. 822152 - 830373 865. 830374 - 838677 866. 838678 - 847064 867. 847065 - 855535 868. 855536 - 864091 869. 864092 - 872732 870. 872733 - 881460 871. 881461 - 890275 872. 890276 - 899178 873. 899179 - 908170 874. 908171 - 917252 875. 917253 - 926425 876. 926426 - 935690 877. 935691 - 945047 878. 945048 - 954498 879. 954499 - 964043 880. 964044 - 973684 881. 973685 - 983421 882. 983422 - 993256 883. 993257 - 1003189 884. 1003190 - 1013221 885. 1013222 - 1023354 886. 1023355 - 1033588 887. 1033589 - 1043924 888. 1043925 - 1054364 889. 1054365 - 1064908 890. 1064909 - 1075558 891. 1075559 - 1086314 892. 1086315 - 1097178 893. 1097179 - 1108150 894. 1108151 - 1119232 895. 1119233 - 1130425 896. 1130426 - 1141730 897. 1141731 - 1153148 898. 1153149 - 1164680 899. 1164681 - 1176327 900. 1176328 - 1188091 901. 1188092 - 1199972 902. 1199973 - 1211972 903. 1211973 - 1224092 904. 1224093 - 1236333 905. 1236334 - 1248697 906. 1248698 - 1261184 907. 1261185 - 1273796 908. 1273797 - 1286534 909. 1286535 - 1299400 910. 1299401 - 1312395 911. 1312396 - 1325519 912. 1325520 - 1338775 913. 1338776 - 1352163 914. 1352164 - 1365685 915. 1365686 - 1379342 916. 1379343 - 1393136 917. 1393137 - 1407068 918. 1407069 - 1421139 919. 1421140 - 1435351 920. 1435352 - 1449705 921. 1449706 - 1464203 922. 1464204 - 1478846 923. 1478847 - 1493635 924. 1493636 - 1508572 925. 1508573 - 1523658 926. 1523659 - 1538895 927. 1538896 - 1554284 928. 1554285 - 1569827 929. 1569828 - 1585526 930. 1585527 - 1601382 931. 1601383 - 1617396 932. 1617397 - 1633570 933. 1633571 - 1649906 934. 1649907 - 1666406 935. 1666407 - 1683071 936. 1683072 - 1699902 937. 1699903 - 1716902 938. 1716903 - 1734072 939. 1734073 - 1751413 940. 1751414 - 1768928 941. 1768929 - 1786618 942. 1786619 - 1804485 943. 1804486 - 1822530 944. 1822531 - 1840756 945. 1840757 - 1859164 946. 1859165 - 1877756 947. 1877757 - 1896534 948. 1896535 - 1915500 949. 1915501 - 1934656 950. 1934657 - 1954003 951. 1954004 - 1973544 952. 1973545 - 1993280 953. 1993281 - 2013213 954. 2013214 - 2033346 955. 2033347 - 2053680 956. 2053681 - 2074217 957. 2074218 - 2094960 958. 2094961 - 2115910 959. 2115911 - 2137070 960. 2137071 - 2158441 961. 2158442 - 2180026 962. 2180027 - 2201827 963. 2201828 - 2223846 964. 2223847 - 2246085 965. 2246086 - 2268546 966. 2268547 - 2291232 967. 2291233 - 2314145 968. 2314146 - 2337287 969. 2337288 - 2360660 970. 2360661 - 2384267 971. 2384268 - 2408110 972. 2408111 - 2432192 973. 2432193 - 2456514 974. 2456515 - 2481080 975. 2481081 - 2505891 976. 2505892 - 2530950 977. 2530951 - 2556260 978. 2556261 - 2581823 979. 2581824 - 2607642 980. 2607643 - 2633719 981. 2633720 - 2660057 982. 2660058 - 2686658 983. 2686659 - 2713525 984. 2713526 - 2740661 985. 2740662 - 2768068 986. 2768069 - 2795749 987. 2795750 - 2823707 988. 2823708 - 2851945 989. 2851946 - 2880465 990. 2880466 - 2909270 991. 2909271 - 2938363 992. 2938364 - 2967747 993. 2967748 - 2997425 994. 2997426 - 3027400 995. 3027401 - 3057675 996. 3057676 - 3088252 997. 3088253 - 3119135 998. 3119136 - 3150327 999. 3150328 - 3181831 1000. 3181832 - 3213650 I assumed 1% range, but for the bears, when I start as low as $100, they get up to 2% due to rounding to whole dollars. This gives almost 250 spots between ~$5,000 and ~$50,000. If that's not enough, the range can go lower than 1% for each prediction. It's just a simple spreadsheet rounding down a 1% increase for each number, then adding $1 to start the next one. I didn't go lower than $100, it doesn't work with 1% increases and rounding down. Bears like that shouldn't be on Bitcointalk anyway If anyone predicts more than $3,213,650, I couldn't be happier if they win
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El duderino_ (OP)
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BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 02, 2020, 05:04:13 PM |
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you might need to help me out or something.... Okay example: I assumed 1% range, but for the bears, when I start as low as $100, they get up to 2% due to rounding to whole dollars. This gives almost 250 spots between ~$5,000 and ~$50,000. If that's not enough, the range can go lower than 1% for each prediction. It's just a simple spreadsheet rounding down a 1% increase for each number, then adding $1 to start the next one. I didn't go lower than $100, it doesn't work with 1% increases and rounding down. Bears like that shouldn't be on Bitcointalk anyway An alternative, and this is a bit more complicated but also a good exercise in using Bitcoin's possibilities, would be to ask everyone to hide their prediction until the entries are closed. So: 1. make up a number ($100,000). 2. sign a message from a Bitcoin address with your prediction and some random text ("$100,000 6632099102860212817669648358652770915593"). 3. post only the signature, don't edit this post anymore. Keep your prediction secret and don't forget your random text! 4. wait for all other participants to do the same, and wait for micgoossens to announce new entries are no longer allowed 5. post the bitcoin address and signed message, this reveals your prediction. 6. now we wait ^ I mean with a next game to maybe do something with hidden guesses etc
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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kurious
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January 02, 2020, 05:53:44 PM Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3) |
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Mic - I think your $50 boxes work fine, mate.
It's your game, so you call it... but getting too complex is not a great idea - in my humble opinion.
It was ok as it was, but boxes does make it a little more fair and stops people gaming it by going 'one less' or 'one more' than another guess and reducing chances for another hopeful participant.
If most people guess between (say) 5K and 25K you will have 400 boxes on offer - with an inevitable cluster towards the middle, tapering out to the extreme high/low ends. That's plenty of choices, and (relatively) simple.
Setting the actual time of the end of the comp will be another dilemma for you to think on. The halving will be in a particular block - at a particular time - but not precisely knowable in advance. You may want to set it as 'midnight UTC' on the day of the first mined block containing the new reward (or at a time X days after this).
That way will mean there is an easily verifiable 'on the record' price. In the event it falls between two boxes you can look to the price to two decimal places to sort it out.
All simple enough - but just my suggestions.
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我想要火箭和火车
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sgbett
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January 02, 2020, 07:13:05 PM |
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FWIW I was thinking along same lines as Loyce - percentage increments gives the fairest box ranges, corresponding to linear increments on a log chart. I also think timing it with the halving is a great twist... though getting the merit to take part is a tough ask for us BSV shills though If you ask me people with paid sigs should be excluded heheh
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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exstasie
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January 02, 2020, 07:47:23 PM |
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Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of. It's your game, so you call it... but getting too complex is not a great idea - in my humble opinion.
Emphatic +1. You're the man Mic!
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El duderino_ (OP)
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January 02, 2020, 09:07:54 PM |
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Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of.Maybe good to take a date again and the closest price that moment... instead of the highest until the date...
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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hosseinimr93
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January 02, 2020, 11:30:57 PM |
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I like the idea of LoyceV because of using a great feature of bitcoin and also more fair ranges. 50$ dollar range is almost nothing for those who predict 100,000 dollar. Also, there is no problem with complexity of making guesses. Because it will be an exercise for those who haven't ever signed a message. But the problem will be repetitive guesses. What if 10 people predict exactly 10,000 and that will be the winning price? Split the reward equally between all 10 winners? In my opinion, it would be better to have only one winner with a big reward.
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kurious
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 1643
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January 02, 2020, 11:34:07 PM |
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Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of.Maybe good to take a date again and the closest price that moment... instead of the highest until the date... Yes, as the game could be an anti climax if it spiked up next week and then says down for over four months. Day of halving is around 14th May, it will get more precise as we get closer, of course - and it could get volatile. Drama until the end that way...
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我想要火箭和火车
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