🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[tyKiwanuka]

I'm wondering: how do you use the coronavirus mess (introduction of unknowns and special circumstances) to get an edge when placing a bet? I'm curious to know if you've thought about it.

I didn't think about it particularly in regards to NFL, since I am not betting it very seriously, but more for the fun of it. What I learned by betting the german Bundesliga is, that there is basically no home advantage no more - there seems to actually be an away advantage Last 9 rounds after Corona break went 26-19-37, so 32% home wins, 23% draws and a whopping 45% away wins. It got a bit better for the home teams in the end, at some point there were only 11% home wins.

These numbers are not only caused by lack of fan support, but also because the refs are not that biased with no home crowd around, that could cheer them into some decision (even with VAR available). Now I don't think the fans can influence the refs into some decisions in the NFL like they can do in soccer, but the absence of fan support should result in the home teams having less home advantage. But as far as I know, it's still not yet decided, if there will be no spectators at all or maybe at 50% stadium capacity or whatever.

With reduced preparation/pratice time, this will definitely be advantageous for teams like the Chiefs, who were able keep everyone. If you have a lot of young and new players and maybe a new QB on top of that, you are doomed imo, since it takes a lot of time to get everyone in sync (and NFL ready for the young players).

There was a team in german Bundesliga that had to go into 2-week quarantine shortly before the season resumed. When they were allowed to play again, they were completely lost, because practice is so very different to in-competition (and the teams they played already had 2-3 matches under their belt). You need more than some days of practice after a long-ish break to get match-fit again. So if certain teams get more practice time than others, that should give them an advantage as well. Especially in such a physical and sophisticated sport that American Football is.

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[South Park]

So the Patriots signed Cam Newton to a one year deal, which was a bit expected. It gets me excited tbh, because I am super curious what BB can (still) do with him and what will happen to the Patriots offensive scheme, if Newton will win the starting job.

I know a lot of people are not very high on Newton (anymore) and he had his fair share of health issues in the last years, but BB can do magic. What do all the Patriots fans in here think about the signing ?

I do not like it, it was obvious since long ago NE needed a third QB on the roster, and since NE did not drafted one then free agency was the only answer, according to the reports the contract is up for 7.5 millions if all incentives are included, so from a business perspective is not a bad deal.

However we are about 2 months and a half away from the beginning of the regular season and this movement is coming simply too late, also you do not bring someone like Cam Newton to be at the bench which means Belichick is not convinced by what he is seeing in Stidham and Hoyer and this is a problem, if this movement happened after the draft then Cam could have had more time to learn the playbook or to adapt the playbook to his skill set and when we take into account the exceptional circumstances we are in because of the pandemic this is going to become an even bigger challenge.

Also while Cam is still young, he is only 31, the style of football that he plays is extremely taxing to his body to the point he has not looked the same for quite some time, can he become more of a pocket passer? This is difficult to know because he has been going through a shoulder injury during the past two years and he was even trying to change the mechanics he used to throw the ball, all in all this is a gamble for NE, as a fan I hope it goes well but I do not have high hopes of that happening.

I think the Pats are gonna end the season with their worst record in quite some time, may not even make it to the playoffs.

snip

Agreed, the schedule this year is many times more difficult than the one NE had to face during the past year, in fact taking into account the records of the teams during the previous season NE has the hardest schedule in all the NFL, we also talked a little bit about it when the NFL scheduled was released and if NE can go 5-5 during the first 10 games then there is hope to get to the post-season but anything worse than that and most likely any hope for a post-season game will be over.

[South Park]

First of all sorry for the double post but there is some breaking news.

A little while ago there was some confusion about a satirical news asking for the Patriots to change their name, I had a good laugh but I wondered how long it will take for this to become real and it did not took even a month for this to become true.

FedEx one of the sponsors of the Washington Redskins, probably the most important, and partial owner of the team is formally asking to the Washington Redskins to change the name of the team, if I remember correctly there have been complains about the name for quite some time but now that an important sponsor is asking for this it is going to put a lot of pressure to get this done, after all now that FedEx has taken this step most other sponsors will probably ask for the same thing as they do not want to not seem as progressive as FedEx.

So I am giving it about a decade before there are actual protests for the New England Patriots to change their name, this would not be the first time that a satirical article becomes reality, in fact there have been several instances in which I have read an article on the NYT and I had to make sure I was not reading The Onion.

Source: https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/major-disruption-fedex-formally-asks-redskins-change-team-name


Edit: The Washington Redskins are changing their name to the D.C. Redskins.
Source: https://sports.theonion.com/washington-redskins-change-their-name-to-the-d-c-redsk-1819575691

[tyKiwanuka]

Edit: The Washington Redskins are changing their name to the D.C. Redskins.
Source: https://sports.theonion.com/washington-redskins-change-their-name-to-the-d-c-redsk-1819575691

Err, am I the only one who thinks that that makes no sense This is like re-naming the New England Patriots to Boston Patriots. It's the "Redskins" name and logo that got more and more criticism over the years or am I missing something here ?

Edit: Ok, got it. I don't know all satirical outlets in the world unfortunately^^

[nutildah]

Now I don't think the fans can influence the refs into some decisions in the NFL like they can do in soccer, but the absence of fan support should result in the home teams having less home advantage.
...
With reduced preparation/pratice time, this will definitely be advantageous for teams like the Chiefs, who were able keep everyone. If you have a lot of young and new players and maybe a new QB on top of that, you are doomed imo, since it takes a lot of time to get everyone in sync (and NFL ready for the young players).

This makes perfect sense and I hadn't considered these little details. It will be interesting to see how/if the bookmakers factor these types of variables into their spreads.

Edit: Ok, got it. I don't know all satirical outlets in the world unfortunately^^

There's really only a few. The Hard Times being the 3rd. Here's a sample Hard Times NFL article:

5 Ways to Enjoy the Super Bowl Vicariously Through Your Friend’s Gambling Problem


Maybe this year we should try to do a thread Fantasy Football league. After last year's debacle, I don't really want to play in the same league as last time. Bastards still owe me about $250. I'm down for whatever website peeps want to use.

[tyKiwanuka]

There's really only a few. The Hard Times being the 3rd. Here's a sample Hard Times NFL article: (...)

The hardest part is actually getting the sarcasm, when it's not your first language And I am following things closely at the moment in US (Corona, Politics) and there are some news, where I think "ok, this can't be true", but it is reality in fact and I am scratching my head in disbelief then It's a good show and I enjoy it, but you always have to double-check everything^^

Maybe this year we should try to do a thread Fantasy Football league. After last year's debacle, I don't really want to play in the same league as last time. Bastards still owe me about $250. I'm down for whatever website peeps want to use.

Count me in. I never played FF, but always wanted to try it.

[tyKiwanuka]

Patrick Mahomes signed a new little contract, which makes him halfway through a billionaire, the highest paid athlete ever and the first NFL player to lead this category.
Couldn't believe my eyes ( ) when I saw the news. This is probably deserved all things considered, but also just out of this world. I like it though, since Mahomes is exciting to watch and Reid the right guy to even develop him further as the offensive genius he is. 


Regarding the preseason schedule, the NFLPA has voted to skip it entirely, while the NFL is more thinking about cutting it down to two games for this season. As much as I dislike preseason, I think going into competition with no preseason is not a good idea. There is a huge difference between practice vs competition and the preseason is something inbetween, which also helps a bit with player safety and getting your body/muscles/mind more match fit. If we go from practice straight into regular season, we will see some pretty strange and random results I guess - and probably more injuries.

[South Park]

Patrick Mahomes signed a new little contract, which makes him halfway through a billionaire, the highest paid athlete ever and the first NFL player to lead this category.
Couldn't believe my eyes ( ) when I saw the news. This is probably deserved all things considered, but also just out of this world. I like it though, since Mahomes is exciting to watch and Reid the right guy to even develop him further as the offensive genius he is. 

As you say I think it is deserved and it is a way to show their player they really want him, however this is a risk, there is a reason on average the longest contracts on the NFL are up to 4 or 5 years, if something were to happen to Mahomes, something that a true lover of football does not want to happen, then they will be in salary cap hell for quite some time even with whatever precautions they took when drafting his contract, in fact it will be fascinating to see how KC will navigate the salary cap from now on, in the case of Mahomes they were getting a massive overproduction when he was on his rookie deal but that will not be the case anymore, it will be interesting to watch if they can avoid what happened to Seattle and Russell Wilson which went from a juggernaut to just another good team when they paid him his money.

Regarding the preseason schedule, the NFLPA has voted to skip it entirely, while the NFL is more thinking about cutting it down to two games for this season. As much as I dislike preseason, I think going into competition with no preseason is not a good idea. There is a huge difference between practice vs competition and the preseason is something inbetween, which also helps a bit with player safety and getting your body/muscles/mind more match fit. If we go from practice straight into regular season, we will see some pretty strange and random results I guess - and probably more injuries.

Maybe a compromise could be reached, preseason games for the most part are useful to look at the drafted new talent and whatever players the team got on free agency, the owners could just make it official and exclude anyone that has been with the team for one year or longer from participating on those games, this arrangement will get most parts happy, the fans will have something to watch, the owners get some money out of this, new players get a chance to prove their worth to the coaches and try to secure a spot on the roster and coaches get a chance to see their players compete.

Maybe this year we should try to do a thread Fantasy Football league. After last year's debacle, I don't really want to play in the same league as last time. Bastards still owe me about $250. I'm down for whatever website peeps want to use.

Just a question, what kind sites do you have on mind? If it is a website which accepts bitcoin then you can count me in even if I am quite sure I will be last place, but if something like PP is needed then I will have to think about it since I have been avoiding getting a PP account.

[bbc.reporter]

Patrick Mahomes signed a new little contract, which makes him halfway through a billionaire, the highest paid athlete ever and the first NFL player to lead this category.
Couldn't believe my eyes ( ) when I saw the news. This is probably deserved all things considered, but also just out of this world. I like it though, since Mahomes is exciting to watch and Reid the right guy to even develop him further as the offensive genius he is. 


Regarding the preseason schedule, the NFLPA has voted to skip it entirely, while the NFL is more thinking about cutting it down to two games for this season. As much as I dislike preseason, I think going into competition with no preseason is not a good idea. There is a huge difference between practice vs competition and the preseason is something inbetween, which also helps a bit with player safety and getting your body/muscles/mind more match fit. If we go from practice straight into regular season, we will see some pretty strange and random results I guess - and probably more injuries.

However, what are the chances that there might not be a 2020 season for the NFL, also the NBA and others? Coronavirus cases are still rising in America, riots and protests are keeping people afraid and many speculate that the election on November might end in a civil war.

[tyKiwanuka]

However, what are the chances that there might not be a 2020 season for the NFL, also the NBA and others?

For me the possibility of no 2020 NFL season is next to zero. It would take very special circumstances to cancel it all together, there is just too much money involved and as we all know money makes the world go round Look at german football (soccer) Bundesliga. Lots of shops were still closed, gatherings of more than 3 persons were forbidden, masks mandatory in all indoor places, but football started again. And the Bundesliga isn't as powerful as the NFL is. Now you basically have all leagues in Europe playing again, that weren't cancelled; Basketball is played again too. All this with sophisticated hygiene concepts, no spectators and it worked; I didn't hear of any issues.

This virus is relatively easy to control in the end, if everyone is on the same page and shows just some discipline (a bit of social distancing and wearing a mask is enough). What a lot of people in the US don't seem to understand is, that if you show discipline for some weeks, you can be "done" with this relatively fast and go back to normal step by step. If you refuse to co-operate and insist on your "freedom" (which is good in general, but not with this matter), you will be stuck in this situation waaaaaaaaaaay longer. 

The situation in general is embarrassing enough for the US and if they fail to have something like a NFL season, this would be even more embarrassing imo, because it's all in their power to improve the situation.

Even if the situation is like it is now by August/September, I still think the NFL would start (because money). Only if the situation worsens even more, I could think of the season being postponed. Only postponed though, because money again. To cancel the whole season, I don't know what would have to happen. Since you are also active in the US election thread, I will post this quote from Condoleezza Rice here, which I also posted/referred to in that thread:

We’ve had elections in this country when we were at war, even when we were in [a] civil war. And we should have the elections on time.

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

-

As for NBA and MLB, this is even easier to manage imo. NBA has small rosters/staff and Baseball is no-contact sport 99% of the time and outdoor in a lot of places; biggest problem is probably the chewing tobacco and the spitting For NHL not sure, because they have bigger rosters, there is a lot of contact and the arenas are cold-ish, which is something this virus seems to prefer from all we know.

[bbc.reporter]

However, if the reason is money, I reckon the NFL might not make money without opening the stadiums to the people. Dana White of the UFC has said that they are spending more for expenditures for their events today than before the coronavirus.

In any case, you are correct! There must be an NFL season hehehehe!

[nutildah]

Maybe this year we should try to do a thread Fantasy Football league. After last year's debacle, I don't really want to play in the same league as last time. Bastards still owe me about $250. I'm down for whatever website peeps want to use.

Just a question, what kind sites do you have on mind? If it is a website which accepts bitcoin then you can count me in even if I am quite sure I will be last place, but if something like PP is needed then I will have to think about it since I have been avoiding getting a PP account.

I think what we'd do is just sign up for a league via ESPN or Yahoo Sports (use a new email address to register) and then have someone collect and hold the BTC (I'd nominate DireWolf for that). Maybe just small stakes... somewhere between 0.001 and 0.003 BTC per player, or something.

I dunno. I kinda talked myself out of it while writing this. Seems like it might be more trouble than its worth.

[DireWolfM14]

I think what we'd do is just sign up for a league via ESPN or Yahoo Sports (use a new email address to register) and then have someone collect and hold the BTC (I'd nominate DireWolf for that). Maybe just small stakes... somewhere between 0.001 and 0.003 BTC per player, or something.

I dunno. I kinda talked myself out of it while writing this. Seems like it might be more trouble than its worth.

I was planning to respond to your suggestion of a fantasy league sooner, I think it's a great idea.  I'd rather participate than hold the coin, if you'll have me.  I nominate DarkStar_, for that.

It's been a lot of year since I've participated in a league, so lets keep it cheap please, lol.  How many participants would we need to make it fun?

[nutildah]

I think what we'd do is just sign up for a league via ESPN or Yahoo Sports (use a new email address to register) and then have someone collect and hold the BTC (I'd nominate DireWolf for that). Maybe just small stakes... somewhere between 0.001 and 0.003 BTC per player, or something.

I dunno. I kinda talked myself out of it while writing this. Seems like it might be more trouble than its worth.

I was planning to respond to your suggestion of a fantasy league sooner, I think it's a great idea.  I'd rather participate than hold the coin, if you'll have me.  I nominate DarkStar_, for that.

It's been a lot of year since I've participated in a league, so lets keep it cheap please, lol.  How many participants would we need to make it fun?

I'd feel comfortable with you playing and holding the funds. It's not unusual in the real world for someone to do both. We'd need at least 8 players; 10 is ideal. Also ideally they should be people who have commented in this thread or the old one from time-to-time, or else have an established history of commenting in the Gambling section of the forum (ie, no newbs or Jr members).

The hardest part would be arranging a draft... It would take a lot of coordination to do a live draft, and since we all live in different time zones, it might be hard to pin down a time. I think of ESPN and Yahoo Sports have autodraft features (where you rank the players you want, down to 100 players or so) so we could just do that.

[tyKiwanuka]

However, if the reason is money, I reckon the NFL might not make money without opening the stadiums to the people.

Making a bit of money is still better than making no money at all And you have contracts and TV rights, where you might have to pay a penalty, so you can even lose money. I would think that gate receipts are only a smaller percentage of the overall revenue for the teams/NFL; in german Bundesliga it's ~15% for 17 home games. An NFL team has 8 home games with 70k average attendance and higher ticket prices, but the % look to be similar:

In 2018, the revenue from gate receipts made up about 15.47 percent of the league's total revenue.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/193364/percentage-of-ticketing-revenue-in-the-nfl-since-2006/

Even if it's 20%, still making 80% is better than making 0% and having to pay penalties.

We'd need at least 8 players; 10 is ideal. (...)
The hardest part would be arranging a draft... It would take a lot of coordination to do a live draft, and since we all live in different time zones, it might be hard to pin down a time.

8-10 players won't be easy, not sure, if we even have 8-10 regular posters in this and the old thread But maybe the closer we get to regular season, the more people come out of their caves and with some advertisement, we could get a good number.

I am fine with any time for a live draft, can be in the middle of the night, no problem. And I am also fine with any of the established members holding the funds, it's not millions in the end and if anyone wants to scam ~0.02 BTC from a community game, well, then so be it.

[figmentofmyass]

For me the possibility of no 2020 NFL season is next to zero. It would take very special circumstances to cancel it all together, there is just too much money involved and as we all know money makes the world go round Look at german football (soccer) Bundesliga. Lots of shops were still closed, gatherings of more than 3 persons were forbidden, masks mandatory in all indoor places, but football started again. And the Bundesliga isn't as powerful as the NFL is. Now you basically have all leagues in Europe playing again, that weren't cancelled; Basketball is played again too. All this with sophisticated hygiene concepts, no spectators and it worked; I didn't hear of any issues.

+1, especially with the MLB kicking off their season in a couple weeks. the prevailing attitude seems to be that leagues will make all efforts to go ahead regardless of the pandemic.

it might get pretty wonky though. news just dropped that all NFL players will have the option of sitting out the entire season.

Under the plan developed by the NFL and NFLPA, there really wouldn't be any strict guidelines with the opt-out. Any player who has a pre-existing condition would be allowed to sit out. Players who have family members with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to sit out. Also, any player who has any concerns about playing during a pandemic would also be allowed to sit out, which would open the door for pretty much any player to sit out the season.

i love the ravens and 49ers this year but who the hell knows what their rosters will look like come september?

We'd need at least 8 players; 10 is ideal. (...)
The hardest part would be arranging a draft... It would take a lot of coordination to do a live draft, and since we all live in different time zones, it might be hard to pin down a time.

8-10 players won't be easy, not sure, if we even have 8-10 regular posters in this and the old thread But maybe the closer we get to regular season, the more people come out of their caves and with some advertisement, we could get a good number.

I am fine with any time for a live draft, can be in the middle of the night, no problem. And I am also fine with any of the established members holding the funds, it's not millions in the end and if anyone wants to scam ~0.02 BTC from a community game, well, then so be it.

i'm in, if you guys will have me. i'm pretty flexible re live draft and also fine with an auto draft.

[bbc.reporter]

I do not know how to play but I will support the league and join to lose hehehe. Where can I find the best quick newbie guides?

[DireWolfM14]

Looks like we have six members interested in a fantasy football league, we're 60-75% there.

Here're the members who expressed interest so far:

@figmentofmyass
@nutildah
@bbc.reporter
@South Park
@tyKiwanuka
@DireWolfM14


I'm calling out some of the members who were active in the Essential NFL thread throughout last season.  Maybe we can entice two or four of them to join as well.

@Hueristic
@wheelz1200
@DaveF
@Gyfts
@rdbase
@ralle14
@morvillz7z

[morvillz7z]

Thanks for the ping @DireWolfM14, not sure how i missed the discussion but you can count me in.

I think we can get 10, but if we need 1-2, i remember ChiBitCTy had a fantasy league going on, maybe some of those guys might be interested?

[tyKiwanuka]

As some of you might have heard, there are some MLB players that opted out of the shortened 2020 season. Only a few until now, but I expect more to come. Zimmerman from the Nationals stated the following:

I have a 3-week-old baby,'' Zimmerman wrote. "My mother has multiple sclerosis and is super high-risk; if I end up playing, I can pretty much throw out the idea of seeing her until weeks after the season is over. There's a lot of factors that I and others have to consider. I don't think there's a right or wrong answer; it's everybody's individual choice

Source: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29384355/nationals-ryan-zimmerman-joe-ross-opt-2020-season

I think this is also a scenario that is very likely to happen in NFL and something that could put the NFL season in jeopardy, if you have too many players refusing to play or some bigger names opting out. As said above Baseball is easier to handle Corona-wise than Football, so I am not that sure anymore about the chances of no season at all being "next to zero"

I think we can get 10, but if we need 1-2, i remember ChiBitCTy had a fantasy league going on, maybe some of those guys might be interested?

I left a post in that thread noticing them about our interest to start a league for next season.