🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[xxjumperxx]

Can anyone tell me why I repeatly bet the damn Jets?
Of course not the moneyline but I took the spread this time all the way up to +17, because I thought:
Hey they will lose this for sure, but they should be able to put at least a couple of points...

Oh my was I wrong...
Jets got destroyed, Jets have made it (finally) to my Do not Bet List.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbUYhSV_u50

OT: I need to rewatch that movie, such a classic!

Yes, they burned me one too many times now and I will not bet on them anymore this season


What do we see for tonight? Browns or Ravens?

[1714940114]

1714940114

[1714940114]

1714940114

[Hueristic]

What do we see for tonight? Browns or Ravens?

I'd lean Ravens but this year all bets are off and I'm not going to bet until next season when al this Covid shit should be behind us.

Just watching the games and suffering in Patriots Hell...

[DireWolfM14]

What do we see for tonight? Browns or Ravens?

I'd lean Ravens but this year all bets are off and I'm not going to bet until next season when al this Covid shit should be behind us.

I'm going with the Browns.  They've been playing better ball the last few weeks, and I really think they'll be in the playoffs this year.  After the Steeler's loss last night, they have a good chance to win the division, and this game is a must if they want to do that.

Just watching the games and suffering in Patriots Hell...

Welcome to world of the 49ers' fans.  

[suchmoon]

What do we see for tonight? Browns or Ravens?

I think I may do something like Browns +6.5

Earlier I really liked them for an underdog win but I'm afraid Lamar will walk (possibly literally) all over their defense.

I'm going with the Browns.  They've been playing better ball the last few weeks, and I really think they'll be in the playoffs this year.  After the Steeler's loss last night, they have a good chance to win the division, and this game is a must if they want to do that.

It's a far bigger "must" for Ravens though - to keep their playoff chances alive.

[ChiBitCTy]

I missed the first half of game as I took a nap and forgot to wake up in time to place my bets, but I wish I had for this Bears game.  As much as the Bears suck, I knew with the Texans being down both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks that they would struggle.  Now I definitely didn't think it would be this bad however.

The only second half game I'm really feeling right now is the Steelers over Buffalo at +2.  Thoughts on this game?

Steering clear of this game.  Kc and the giants under is on track but somehow the giants will screw the under 😆.   If I had to take anyone I'd probably take the bills in that game.  Steelers have looked shaky and their run game sucks.  Good thing I have Connor in ff 😒

I should have checked back here after placing my bet for the Steelers.  You're right, they really are starting to struggle quite a bit.  I figured since they had James Conner back, that there running game would be back up to "snuff" and they'd get back on track, but of course that certainly wasn't the case.

Interesting game tonight.  Baltimore at -3.5 is pretty enticing.  Though the Browns have pretty pretty solid so far this year.

[DireWolfM14]

I'm going with the Browns.  They've been playing better ball the last few weeks, and I really think they'll be in the playoffs this year.  After the Steeler's loss last night, they have a good chance to win the division, and this game is a must if they want to do that.

It's a far bigger "must" for Ravens though - to keep their playoff chances alive.

I agree, but I'm on a streak of losing all my safe bets this week, so I might as well lose a risky one, no?  I took the Browns ML for tonight's game.  I want Baker Mayfield to finally live up to his draft hype, which I think he has the potential to do.  Now that the 9ers are out of contention I think I'm going to root for the Browns the rest of the season.

[South Park]

Can anyone tell me why I repeatly bet the damn Jets?

snip

Hey they will lose this for sure, but they should be able to put at least a couple of points...

Famous last words of every single sport bettor brave enough to bet on the Jets.

Oh my was I wrong...
Jets got destroyed, Jets have made it (finally) to my Do not Bet List.

But seriously the Jets got so close to winning last week, and that blitz at the end was very suspicious, they feared they may actually win a game even when not trying and lose Trevor Lawrence in the process so they made absolute sure this week they will lose, or at least that is how I like to interpret what happened.

I'm going with the Browns.  They've been playing better ball the last few weeks, and I really think they'll be in the playoffs this year.  After the Steeler's loss last night, they have a good chance to win the division, and this game is a must if they want to do that.

I am going with the Browns as well, since Odell got injured they have been playing better than ever, to me this guy is looking more and more like Terrell Owens, a great player but a terrible teammate and I will not be surprised if he is traded during the next season.


BTW, did someone watched the game of the Chiefs vs Dolphins? The Dolphins wasted the opportunity to win that game, they forced 3 INTs and 1 Fumble and got 10 points out of it but they missed a FG and got a safety against them, while the Chiefs got a TD from their only INT and a Punt Return, if the Dolphins had played just a little bit better special teams or slightly better offence the result could have been dramatically different.

[suchmoon]

if the Dolphins had played just a little bit better special teams or slightly better offence the result could have been dramatically different.

Isn't that the case with every loss? If they played a little better than the other team they could have won, give or take some variance due to luck. But Chiefs are the better team precisely because they can take advantage of opportunities like interceptions:

Dolphins: 140 yards from 16 interceptions
Chiefs: 256 yards from 15 interceptions

[mrob82]

What do we see for tonight? Browns or Ravens?

I think I may do something like Browns +6.5

Earlier I really liked them for an underdog win but I'm afraid Lamar will walk (possibly literally) all over their defense.

I'm going with the Browns.  They've been playing better ball the last few weeks, and I really think they'll be in the playoffs this year.  After the Steeler's loss last night, they have a good chance to win the division, and this game is a must if they want to do that.

It's a far bigger "must" for Ravens though - to keep their playoff chances alive.

Browns are going to have to pass in this game to keep up, but wind concerns me for the first half.  Took first half under 23.5.  Also took Lamar rushing over 54.5.  After a couple of those passes get away from him, he will go route 1/2 and then tuck it and run.  Wind will shake his confidence for sure.

[South Park]

if the Dolphins had played just a little bit better special teams or slightly better offence the result could have been dramatically different.

Isn't that the case with every loss? If they played a little better than the other team they could have won, give or take some variance due to luck. But Chiefs are the better team precisely because they can take advantage of opportunities like interceptions:

Fair enough, it is just there was a span of roughly 4 minutes of ingame time between the end of the 2nd quarter and the beginning of the 3rd in which the game went from being 7-10 in favour of the Dolphins to 28-10 in favour of the Chiefs, and while that is a common theme with Mahomes and company I was surprised at how fast they could switch things around against a team that has playoff aspirations, the Chiefs are dominant and the defence of the Dolphins despite allowing 33 points played really well by forcing so many turnovers so I cannot help to think they deserved better even if we know no sports competition works like that.

[tyKiwanuka]

Dolphins are a very young team, the second youngest, and they lack a bit of experience (and the winning mentality) in the end. In Tennis you often see a walk in the park scoreline like 6-3 6-3, but total points won being rather close-ish, like 70-65. It's about the big points and thats what it's all about in NFL as well. The very good teams make those big points/plays and win close games this way. Dolphins will learn from this and grow with it as a team/unit. I think it's good for a young team to have these losses, it's beneficial longterm, although one can argue about this^^


I am wondering what the hell happened to Dan Bailey Still remember him from his Cowboys days and he was a super reliable kicker, which always annoyed me a bit tbh. Nowadays he looks to be the worst kicker there is. He destroyed my over last week in MIN-JAX game, missing 2 PATs and 1 FG and yesterday he even topped that performance by missing 1 PAT and 3 FG's. And those misses yesterday weren't even close, they were way missed

After all the praise the Giants got in the last weeks, they were put back to earth yesterday. DJ was as bad as it gets, the O-Line did an awful job and it took around half-time I think until the Giants ran a play in Arizonas side of the field. The Cardinals must have had an average starting position at NYG20 in first half. Sacks over sacks, fumbles etc, it was horrible to watch.


MNF is really a hard one and with all the love the Browns get in here, I am a bit hesitant to join this train, though I do like the Browns for tonight. What worries me, is that they opened at 1.95 ML during the week and are now 2.5+ in some places. Follow the money is not a bad strategy when it comes to NFL, but with 1.5x for the Ravens the value is probably gone (and should be on the Browns now maybe). I think I'll start with the over 45.5

[mrob82]

I think I'll start with the over 45.5

Be careful with that, money has been coming in on the under over the past hour to hour and a half.  In regards to side, sharps aren't going to come in until around 745 EST, they have been doing it all year.

[morvillz7z]

^I'm jumping on the under, it's a divisional game, cold weather, both teams are ranked 2nd and 3rd in rushing attempts per game this year, under is written all over it, hence my first ticket.

I have two prop bets to go along with the under, Higgins 30+ receiving yards + Dobbins 35+ rush yards, and Browns under 4.5 TDs + Chubb Anytime Score

I am wondering what the hell happened to Dan Bailey Still remember him from his Cowboys days and he was a super reliable kicker, which always annoyed me a bit tbh. Nowadays he looks to be the worst kicker there is. He destroyed my over last week in MIN-JAX game, missing 2 PATs and 1 FG and yesterday he even topped that performance by missing 1 PAT and 3 FG's. And those misses yesterday weren't even close, they were way missed

Yeah, some of those kicks were way...way off, especially the 54-yard one which was at least 20 yards to the right, Troy Aikman was joking that Bailey might not be Vikings' kicker in the second half.  

Interesting fact, if we get two more missed FGs or XPs today, it will be 20 on the week, which is a lot imo. Guess not only Bailey is having a bad week, Castillo had 3 missed FGs for the Jets, McManus, Rosas, and Lutz each had two missed FGs.

edit;

Zuerlein missed 3 on Tuesday although technically that was the prior week I guess.

Yup, it was week 13.

[suchmoon]

Interesting fact, if we get two more missed FGs or XPs today, it will be 20 on the week, which is a lot imo. Guess not only Bailey is having a bad week, Castillo had 3 missed FGs for the Jets, McManus, Rosas, and Lutz each had two missed FGs.

Zuerlein missed 3 on Tuesday although technically that was the prior week I guess.

[mrob82]

Just watching the games and suffering in Patriots Hell...

Welcome to world of the 49ers' fans.  

[/quote]

Just wait until we get beat by the Cowpokes, that's just going to be the icing on the cake.  We need to make sure to draft Wilson or high accuracy guy in draft, or at least one that doesn't need a continuous walker.

[ralle14]

I really want to jump on the Browns spread then push it up to 7 but I feel like the Ravens could win by at least a touchdown so I went with them instead.

Hope we all meet in the middle with a Ravens win and Browns covering the spread. Best of luck  

Edit : Wow, Browns about to make a comeback now that Lamar is out.

[DireWolfM14]

I am wondering what the hell happened to Dan Bailey Still remember him from his Cowboys days and he was a super reliable kicker, which always annoyed me a bit tbh. Nowadays he looks to be the worst kicker there is. He destroyed my over last week in MIN-JAX game, missing 2 PATs and 1 FG and yesterday he even topped that performance by missing 1 PAT and 3 FG's. And those misses yesterday weren't even close, they were way missed

Yeah, some of those kicks were way...way off, especially the 54-yard one which was at least 20 yards to the right, Troy Aikman was joking that Bailey might not be Vikings' kicker in the second half.  

Interesting fact, if we get two more missed FGs or XPs today, it will be 20 on the week, which is a lot imo. Guess not only Bailey is having a bad week, Castillo had 3 missed FGs for the Jets, McManus, Rosas, and Lutz each had two missed FGs.

I seem to recall the Talking Heads mentioning this kind of thing almost every season.  Now I'm wondering if it's always around this time of year, as the weather starts to affect the the game more.

The Vikings have missed a total of 6 fieldgoals this season, half of them yesterday.

And I remember seeing this post on Reddit claiming there were 19 missed fieldgoals in week 1:
There have been 19 missed Field Goals (FG) in week 1 this year. What's the most missed FG in a single week in the NFL?

I think I'll start with the over 45.5

That's my line.  

[tyKiwanuka]

And I remember seeing this post on Reddit claiming there were 19 missed fieldgoals in week 1:
There have been 19 missed Field Goals (FG) in week 1 this year. What's the most missed FG in a single week in the NFL?

I just checked this one and it was 15 FG and 5 XP missed.
For this week, with Parkey adding to the list twice, we are at 13 FG and 7 XP missed now.

Maybe it's the unusual sight with (nearly) empty stands and/or the kickers not getting distracted by the home fans doing funny things between the goalposts, which then actually distracts them. In Basketball they were once talking about how these fans waving etc. behind the board is actually helping the players, because it makes their vision to the rim clearer. It's a fixed thing surrounded by moving elements (sorry can't explain better in english^^)

Talking about kickers, I really like that Koo guy from the Falcons. His legs are already impressive - being only 5-10 helps a bit in that regard - and he is 33/34 (97.1%) in FGs this season; missed 3 XP's though. Being just 26 y.o., he can kick the ball for another 20 years professionally^^

I think I'll start with the over 45.5

That's my line. 

If Lamar keeps doing what he did so far, the Ravens alone might score 46

[DireWolfM14]

I think I'll start with the over 45.5

That's my line.  

If Lamar keeps doing what he did so far, the Ravens alone might score 46

It's 28 to 20 already only half way through the third quarter.  Not what I expected for this game, but damn, Lamar is fast.  124 rushing yard already.  

[Hueristic]

I am wondering what the hell happened to Dan Bailey Still remember him from his Cowboys days and he was a super reliable kicker, which always annoyed me a bit tbh. Nowadays he looks to be the worst kicker there is. He destroyed my over last week in MIN-JAX game, missing 2 PATs and 1 FG and yesterday he even topped that performance by missing 1 PAT and 3 FG's. And those misses yesterday weren't even close, they were way missed

https://twitter.com/i/status/1338381018399526912  \


Most people are not aware that all kicker hips wear out if they play long enough, that's why Gostowski was so horrible for the start of the season. They usually try to put off the surgery for the off season and push through but sometimes weird shit happens when they all have bad hips at the same time.

Here is a good article on it.

https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2020/04/stephen-gostkowski-risked-hip-replacement-at-40-if-he-didnt-get-surgery-that-ended-patriots-tenure.html

Just watching the games and suffering in Patriots Hell...

Welcome to world of the 49ers' fans.  

HAH! Funny considering the scuttlebutt of Garoppolo coming back to Foxboro for 2021.
I really don't know if I want to see him back here or not but I'll take anyone over Newton!