How long this crisis will be?

[Akiko]

Valid points.

But some countries that are near to China might not think twice in these times. They'll desperately want to get rid of it and if it's the actual vaccine that helped them to overcome the virus, they might give it a try.

I've heard about Russia and Australia too experimenting for the possible vaccine.

every country is looking for vaccine because they all know that they can also be infected not only those big country. The problem about the vacine is it takes a year before they can realease it to the public many testing needed so it will not harm people when its ready and they need to check side effect if they make one.

[davis196]

I haven't seen the video, but the last pandemic we have is the "Spanish" flu in 1918 that killed a lot of people back then. I don't think it will be uglier though, we have vastly improved since the last great pandemic.

So I'm hoping that in the next 3-6 months, a vaccine can be discovered to stop this madness. As of right now, self quarantine is not enough, the number of infected are growing.

A good visual, trajectory of every country here: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

3-6 months is an impossible time frame for creating such vaccine.The process takes more than one year.
Self quarantine IS enough,if all the people are disciplined and are actually abiding by the rules of the quarantine,which isn't the case in some countries.The "shit will hit the fan" in the USA and UK soon,which will drive a huge global recession.Comparing this pandemic with the "Spanish flu" is completely wrong.Back in 1919,the world was recovering from WW1,the countries weren't prepared for a pandemic and the hygiene of the population was horrible.

[Darker45]

Difficult to determine, the most affected district in China is open again. Now, the world is waiting for them to come and give the vaccine, antidote and any help that will solve this crisis quickly.

Not sure how many people are going to trust a vaccine imported from China. Other drugs are different because you can do chemical tests to determine what they contain but I think vaccines are a little different. There's still a chance also that Europe will come up with some sort of vaccine before the end of this... (I'm not versed in licensing laws they may have to trial it in every customs area).

Valid points.

But some countries that are near to China might not think twice in these times. They'll desperately want to get rid of it and if it's the actual vaccine that helped them to overcome the virus, they might give it a try.

I've heard about Russia and Australia too experimenting for the possible vaccine.

I guess there are more than a handful of countries trying to discover a vaccine or a drug to fight this virus. Japan, Germany, USA, Singapore, and many others are also doing their part in experimenting a new vaccine. This is a race against time. Every single day that passes by without a vaccine means lost lives.

In terms of trust in China, for sure, it is not that easy. And now it is also discovered that a lot of COVID-19 test kits bought from China are actually not working. Spain, Czech Republic, and perhaps a country or two more are reporting failures of COVID-19 test kits coming from China.

But both places seemed to be taking the virus pretty seriously and both were fairly empty. Even police have moved away from the area too in order to assist with other tasks.

If only all the people in the world were like that from the very day the virus started creeping, we wouldn't have reached this worse stage. However, reports from all over the world of people not following lockdown guidelines, social distancing and other health protocols were pretty much common earlier. Events were not cancelled or postponed; people go to parties, sports events, and other gatherings.

As a matter of fact, when some Chinese experts moved to Italy to provide medical assistance after they successfully reduced COVID-19 to a significant extent in their own country, they were shocked at how the people are still moving around and meeting others as if everything's normal.

[NavI_027]

I've heard about Russia and Australia too experimenting for the possible vaccine.

While on the other hand, US already developed one. I just don't know when they will release it on the public. But one thing is for sure, they are now halfway on eradicating this virus. What they need to do is to keep some time to slow the spread rate of virus while the vaccine undergo the right process .

Going back to the question, I think and hope that Covid 19 will end for the next 1 to 2 months if not worldwide then at least here in our country first.

[buwaytress]

3-6 months is an impossible time frame for creating such vaccine.The process takes more than one year.
Self quarantine IS enough,if all the people are disciplined and are actually abiding by the rules of the quarantine,which isn't the case in some countries.The "shit will hit the fan" in the USA and UK soon,which will drive a huge global recession.Comparing this pandemic with the "Spanish flu" is completely wrong.Back in 1919,the world was recovering from WW1,the countries weren't prepared for a pandemic and the hygiene of the population was horrible.

Well, if they push through clinical trials and find enough willing volunteers, it's possible to cut that time down. There's a lot of political will behind this kind of thing.

Self quarantine will be enough though, I agree, but there will be (and fair enough) resistance as to people's liberties.

The last flu pandemic in the 1950s led to the economy taking a sharp hit -- but the recovery was just as drastic. I am reminded though that this pandemic isn't the sole reason for this current downturn!

[MCobian]

I don't think anyone knows how long the corona virus crisis will end. But the corona virus is not the worst according to results the analysis
that I did, there is still worse is TB (Tuberculosis) where the number of victims who died more. Although the corona virus is not the worst,
we should not underestimate this virus, because as long as no vaccine has been found that can cure it. Spread will continue. I hope the
vaccine can be found soon, so the crisis can end soon.

[Lucius]

Do you think it will be uglier than the others?

Since the video is in Spanish I cannot comment on it, and it is also unclear exactly what you are referring to when you say crisis., Do you think only on virus or the economic aspect of the crisis? One thing is causally consequently related to another, but the duration of the pandemic and the economic crisis after that is something else entirely. Considering that China has been fighting COVID-19 for almost 4 months with extreme measures and it is still not over, just imagine how long it will take Europe and the USA to put the virus under control? Ignoring the problem from the very beginning (and some do even today) will definitely result in one of the worst health and economic crises in the last 100 years. Recovery will be long and difficult, especially as a recession ensues, resulting in high job losses, reduced purchasing power and very likely a shortage of food due to reduced production.

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

Scary proposition given the long recovery timelines and hospitalization needs.

I see that the vast majority of UK people still share the view of their prime minister and government that it is better to let people get infected and gain immunity, but if we look at the example of Italy where mortality is more than 8%, the UK would with even less hospital capacity with this way of defense against the virus had several million casualties.

Unfortunately for the residents of the UK, as well as those in the USA, all that is currently happening in Italy, Spain and other European countries will happen to them, but given the measures they do not take, the consequences are likely to be even more drastic.

[imstillthebest]

I don't think anyone knows how long the corona virus crisis will end. But the corona virus is not the worst according to results the analysis
that I did, there is still worse is TB (Tuberculosis) where the number of victims who died more. Although the corona virus is not the worst,
we should not underestimate this virus, because as long as no vaccine has been found that can cure it. Spread will continue. I hope the
vaccine can be found soon, so the crisis can end soon.

i agree on that because based on my research too there are previous more deadly virus and disease that have also gone pandemic before but all of them luckily have been sorted out so much more of this covid when its only more of a flu like virus  ? cure for this shouldnt be hard at all to create and i heard there are now meds available that other countries give but not sure if there are vaccines  .  no one knows how long the crisis will last because the state of the covid is confusing , confusing because many are recovering but many are also still suffering and the situation gets worst on some country

[jfarras]

Maybe it isn't correct to compare upcoming crisis with already experienced ones. Some experts are sure that it will be like 2008 recession, I mean 2020 crisis will last more than a couple of months.

there are still too many unknowns at this point. it takes a few weeks to see real results from lockdowns and self quarantines. testing is also primarily only being done on symptomatic cases so we still know very little about how far this thing has spread, and how infectious it really is. those things obviously have a lot of bearing on the future economic costs of the pandemic.

i found this post illuminating---also a bit depressing, since it casts doubt on these "back to normal by april" theories:

The only way an early back-to-work works out well is if some of the more fringe epidemiology theories circulating hold and that the virus really has a R0 of 23 and a very low hospitalization rate and in fact a huge number of people have already been infected.  Existing data doesn't completely disprove this theory as far as I know but the growth rates of hospitalizations we've seen are pretty strong evidence against it. (If it were really the case that the virus was ludicrously infectious but just hospitalized very few people we would have seen the hospitalization rates spike much faster and everywhere almost at once).  I think these sorts of high R0 low-hospitalization rate theories are just hopeful fantasy.  There has been a lot of hopeful fantasy being thrown about by people who really don't want to face the reality-- this one is just a little less innumerate than most of them.

Yes.. I expect at least 6 months..! the average crisis as I comment on the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs5Yyvih14M&list=PLz_NVO61eqw70kA4Z9z854OoyibpDpOuq&index=2 is 1.3 years
 

[cazkooo]

I see that the vast majority of UK people still share the view of their prime minister and government that it is better to let people get infected and gain immunity, but if we look at the example of Italy where mortality is more than 8%, the UK would with even less hospital capacity with this way of defense against the virus had several million casualties.

If you consider the probability that actually there will be some immunity that is developed in human's body then that is good option but there could be no immunity at all. The whole country could suffer from that

[awik p]

I don't think anyone knows how long the corona virus crisis will end. But the corona virus is not the worst according to results the analysis
that I did, there is still worse is TB (Tuberculosis) where the number of victims who died more. Although the corona virus is not the worst,
we should not underestimate this virus, because as long as no vaccine has been found that can cure it. Spread will continue. I hope the
vaccine can be found soon, so the crisis can end soon.

i agree on that because based on my research too there are previous more deadly virus and disease that have also gone pandemic before but all of them luckily have been sorted out so much more of this covid when its only more of a flu like virus  ? cure for this shouldnt be hard at all to create and i heard there are now meds available that other countries give but not sure if there are vaccines  .  no one knows how long the crisis will last because the state of the covid is confusing , confusing because many are recovering but many are also still suffering and the situation gets worst on some country

it is true that there were already several cases which were almost the same as covid19 even more violent, because the death rate was greater. but this covid 19 virus has a nature that is easily spread, so that it makes a lot of people panic. usually after the change of seasons, the virus will stop by itself

[Sadlife]

With the the unemployment rate just went up to 3.3 million and the fed printing unlimited money and with the rate cuts going into the negatives then i say this is only the beginning of the end. Eventually the inevitable will happen after and a recession will take place, this might end even other fiat and goes default. This is really crazy times, i suggest to look for alternatives to store your money.

[Twentyonepaylots]

With the the unemployment rate just went up to 3.3 million and the fed printing unlimited money and with the rate cuts going into the negatives then i say this is only the beginning of the end. Eventually the inevitable will happen after and a recession will take place, this might end even other fiat and goes default. This is really crazy times, i suggest to look for alternatives to store your money.

With so much problems I could not let myself to think that the coronavirus was merely made to solve such problems and it just shows how people could be inhumane in solving problems, but that's a very high and out of this earth speculation tho. The recession might happen again yes, but I don't think that America would let that happen since they already know that China is running to them. The money printing is getting out of control, maybe tomorrow the dollar is as pegged as my local currency coz they are printing to much of it, it's really going crazy now.

[jackg]

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

Scary proposition given the long recovery timelines and hospitalization needs.

I see that the vast majority of UK people still share the view of their prime minister and government that it is better to let people get infected and gain immunity, but if we look at the example of Italy where mortality is more than 8%, the UK would with even less hospital capacity with this way of defense against the virus had several million casualties.

Unfortunately for the residents of the UK, as well as those in the USA, all that is currently happening in Italy, Spain and other European countries will happen to them, but given the measures they do not take, the consequences are likely to be even more drastic.

Actually I think spreading the pandemic in the UK isn't the worst idea... A lot of car producing companies and engineering firms have stepped down their production of cars and the control circuits used in them. These companies are aiming to produce 10000 ventilators in 3 weeks paid for at cost to the government. If it takes 6 weeks (likely for engineers tbh) we may see some slight issues in healthcare being busy but a lot of medium sized corporations here like the fact that they don't have to pay health insurance for their employees so I can see some trying to allow the government to use their equipment where they can't.

We also have large shopping centres in densely populated areas that won't have many people in them which may be able to be quickly reevaluated for housing emergency wards.

The excel conference centre is the first to attempt to be transformed by the army to house 4000 people.

Somewhere like the Trafford Centre has 200 shops in 3 miles. If we say that's 500 rooms (with most shops taking up the full 2 stories) then you could comfortably fit 16 beds a shop and have space for 3600 people there also.

We have slightly more beds than Italy but we don't yet have more ventilators. The major problem with this government's recent climate is that since the records I've found (2005) hospital beds have been in a reduction and there have been quite a few hospitals closed and companies going bankrupt that were meant to take over the construction of the new ones... I mean since our government can't even arrange a Skype conference until they have to I'm not surprised...

[onrise]

With the the unemployment rate just went up to 3.3 million and the fed printing unlimited money and with the rate cuts going into the negatives then i say this is only the beginning of the end. Eventually the inevitable will happen after and a recession will take place, this might end even other fiat and goes default. This is really crazy times, i suggest to look for alternatives to store your money.

For me recessions already in because economy of few countries were already being slow and this impact of Coid 19 where many cities or countries are lock down eventually it has taken a economical hit. Now when everything will start functioning is in known and how much effect it will and has caused only coming time will tell and also huge losses of job will happen in this process so unemployment will just rise in many countries. This is not a good sign for 2020.

[nosferzd]

Most likely the crisis will end around the end of 2020. People will be forced to rebuild their entire social life and work until a vaccine is developed. Again, it all depends on the government, there should be support from citizens and businesses.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

What scares me is that it's the politicians who are making all the decisions, and they don't always tend to be scientific, even if the politicians are relying on scientific advisers. 

My guess is that it'll be another couple of months of hysteria and then the virus will burn itself out--hopefully, and again that's just my guess.  People are talking about how we're living in a different world now, but we really aren't.  This isn't the first epidemic the world's faced, and IMO it could have been a hell of a lot worse.  Imagine if the mortality rate for COVID-19 was a lot higher than it is.  People would be locking themselves in their houses even more than they're doing now.

In my area there are still a lot of businesses that are still open, including some that I would consider non-essential.  But we're doing alright in spite of that.

[Rodeo02]

Most likely the crisis will end around the end of 2020. People will be forced to rebuild their entire social life and work until a vaccine is developed. Again, it all depends on the government, there should be support from citizens and businesses.

Thats too long prediction if its true that it takes that long then almost 1/4 of the population may be experience to be infected that time.

My expectation is it will only take 3-6 month before that crisis will resolve and reduce the infected daily by that time hopefully. But we cant guess it right for now we can only do is watch and stay at home ,always  secured your self and family by jsut simple staying at your home so every one can be safe.

[jackg]

What scares me is that it's the politicians who are making all the decisions, and they don't always tend to be scientific, even if the politicians are relying on scientific advisers. 

My guess is that it'll be another couple of months of hysteria and then the virus will burn itself out--hopefully, and again that's just my guess.  People are talking about how we're living in a different world now, but we really aren't.  This isn't the first epidemic the world's faced, and IMO it could have been a hell of a lot worse.  Imagine if the mortality rate for COVID-19 was a lot higher than it is.  People would be locking themselves in their houses even more than they're doing now.

In my area there are still a lot of businesses that are still open, including some that I would consider non-essential.  But we're doing alright in spite of that.

The herd immunity mentioned above is quite worrying. I'm in more favour of a CONTROLLED herd immunity where only people we know to be healthy can be given a dose of the virus - only then can we see a reduction in hospitalisations and death rate.

The government are taking the piss with their stay at home stuff only for essential work when we all know their work can really be done from home... I don't know why they were still going out... Stay in, but we're not. I don't trust the government in their views, our chief medical officer seems to be better versed but I hope there are several doctors discussing things. It's easy to forget work you've done in the past even when you spend a long time on it if it hasn't been refreshed recently.

I worry the government are going to try to kill off all the vulnerable people to try to make it look like they're fully funding the NHS and can keep making reductions there... With reduced wait times.

Use of ventilation for favourable patients is also weird as you can get a chain smoker of age 30 giving a space up for a 60 year old who's healthy and they have higher life expectancy... But are they going off how long people have left or how long they have now or a proportion of both.

[joinfree]

It would really take a while if you look at how things are unfolding especially how things seem to get worst for some countries. Italy has now overtaken over the rank as it has now recorded the country with the highest death.  Things are also not looking too good with the US and I fear it could get worst in the next month. Let's pray they find a remedy to this disease as soon as possible.