Globb0 BTC charts

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Well this volume might be a trap in data understanding. Just take a look:



Volume looks like its constant with average around red line. But its volume evaluated in bitcoins. If you evaluate this volume in dollars (calculate something like purchasing volume) it looks like we have 350k bitcoins traded in 15.03 at price 5000$ (1 750 mln $) and now have 350k BTC traded at price 8000$ ( 2 800 mln $) so daily volume in $ is constantly increasing (+60% in 1.5 month - full recovery - impressive). To be honest i don't know why exchanges shows trading volume in BTC. Stock shows trading volume in $ not shares.

[1714666213]

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[1714666213]

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[exstasie]

Well this volume might be a trap in data understanding. Just take a look:



Volume looks like its constant with average around red line.

What exchange is that? Can't tell from the screenshot.

There are only a couple handfuls of exchanges that actually have consistently real volume and determine price discovery. That volume profile looks pretty sketchy to me, different than the majors, which had more consistently declining volume over March and April followed by a spike today. This is Coinbase:



Anyway the point may not matter. Declining volume can indicate bear flag behavior, but it can also just indicate consolidation before breakout. Price action takes precedence.

[Globb0]

I remember from years back the BTC price rising on declining volume. Its not the be all and end all. Just another factor.


Nice price

[FullNode]

Selling in May and leaving, this rule does not apply for this year, the halving is close and I am almost sure of an upward movement in the to $8,500 o $ 9,000.

We arrived $9,300

[Globb0]

Happy morning to you all

Daily is solidly closed above the channel and it was an up signal.




Dropping in to extreme zoom,

There is a retest confirming the long position and then a reversal signal for go short



Not for me though margin is too risky.

Still I want to learn the signals and they are there this time.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

What exchange is that? Can't tell from the screenshot.

Binance futures. By the way if their volume is real they hit historical moment yesterday. 15 mld$ daily volume that is more than 50% higher than previous record.




Looks like we close another candle above resistance. Is it the end of "re-tests" and the beggining of second wave to 10k+?

[exstasie]

What exchange is that? Can't tell from the screenshot.

Binance futures. By the way if their volume is real they hit historical moment yesterday. 15 mld$ daily volume that is more than 50% higher than previous record.

Ah, I don't take their volume too seriously. CZ is the master of fake volume. It makes sense they would have volume extremes anyway, since we saw epic volume on Coinbase too:



The dangerous thing about that? Look to the left at that October 2019 failure. Another example of a very high volume daily wick.

I'm very curious to see what the next few days brings. I'm neither long nor short, just waiting for another good setup.

[Globb0]

Allllllrighty then.


Daily, still stayed nice above my channel.

Is that a flagpole pattern? can be an indicator of going up the same again soon? I maybe missdrew it a bit too high looking at it now.




On the hourly, a tiny dip only into the old channel and only for a few seconds



I drew in the new support resistance

[Globb0]

3rd of may be with you

Still pushing on OK. Its the Weak end again for volume

Just do it Bitcoin!



Hourly is pipping along nicely.

[Globb0]

Daily BTC chart is this the retest? if reverses here I say up. Still above the support of the old channel





Looking at the hour you can see it skimming along the top of the channel too

[Globb0]

There was the retest. So again a long signal? (with a sensible stop)



I am still only playing fantasy long and short to see if I am reading it right.

Top of the RSI.

But declining volume? didn't pick up from weekend on Monday.

Might squeeze up?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

But declining volume? didn't pick up from weekend on Monday.

I don't see declining volume in here. We have 2 huge bars from pump candle and stop rally candle (which is obvious, i would not expect them to be smaller than others) and then 4 similar bars and 1 that is not yet finished.

IMO 1h candles are better for analysing 5 day volume change:

[Globb0]

That is fair comment. I meant in only the last 5 or 6 bars relative.

Looking along the whole chart volume is normal or slightly above I suppose.

[exstasie]

Still squarely inside the range. It's a bull flag until proven otherwise, but the upside headfake last night means bears are still in the game. The Bollinger bands are really tight, so if either of these 4-hour pivots ($8,533 and $9,126) get broken now, we should have a significant breakout.

[Globb0]

There was the retest. So again a long signal? (with a sensible stop)



I am still only playing fantasy long and short to see if I am reading it right.

Top of the RSI.

But declining volume? didn't pick up from weekend on Monday.

Might squeeze up?

OK well learning exercise, I made a mistake.

Not waiting for the daily candle to close before deciding.

The signal disappeared a bit later.

Another lesson learned (reminded in fact)  wait for the candle to be closed.

Now it did indeed close higher, so the signal is there.


Im getting confused doubting myself. But it wasn't wrong, just a bit eager.

[SeaBits]

Thanks for posting these with explanations, I enjoy seeing what all the users say about their charts.

6 Days to go till the 1/2ing.

Keep up the good work.

[Globb0]

A different chart for today. Sometimes its good to zoom out.

These are 1 Week candles.

[Globb0]

So we were definitely right with the long signal, would I have had the nerve to keep it open? not sure I did get scared.

But now its closed (daily candles) and smashed through exactly as predicted.





When I am comfortable with my decisions I will probably start trading these

[JayJuanGee]

When I am comfortable with my decisions I will probably start trading these

First:  Don't do it, Globb0.

All we need is another disaster (I feel like I am stifling you).


Second... Alternatively: But if you do, do it. (can't stop the determined, right?).

Maybe if you start with a very small budget, then that would not really hurt anything right?  It's a kind of learning, right?  Don't need to make a lot of money, right?

Let's say for example, you have a $50k bitcoin budget (value of your bitcoin and dollars combined).. how much of your budget are you going to dedicate to your learning process?

Maybe start with 1% to 5% of the value of your budget, at most.  That would be $500 to $2,500.  

One of the difficulties after you started a budget, would be making sure that you manage the budget well and you do not have to go beyond your budget.  Of course, you can increase your budget with the passage of time, but you do not want to spend all of the value of your budget on whatever trading positions that you might end up taking because it would be easy to run out of budget if you do not outline some trading budget management goals...  

[Globb0]

Its all fair comments. ATMO I'm not risking anything.

This is open and transparent.

I have been right a few signals though now, must have the correct stops. That's a bit I still need to learn.