Globb0 BTC charts

[Globb0]

Bands squeezing in and we moved to the top half with a lovely strong candle yesterday.

Things look good for a leg up?

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[dragonvslinux]

Bands squeezing in and we moved to the top half with a lovely strong candle yesterday.

Things look good for a leg up?

Yup, I'd expect ascending triangle resistance to be tested around $10K, maybe even the bull channel resistance of $10.5K if we're lucky. Not convinced we're ready to break through to new yearly highs quite yet though, but could be wrong. Above yesterdays high of $9.8K signals a long-trade on the Daily chart based on TD Sequential, if entries weren't taken on smaller time-frames from $9.6K, but for me the risk/reward isn't quite there yet, mainly because it'd be buying too close to the $10K resistance, it'd be around a 1:1 ratio (way too risky) with a tight stop loss. The time to buy was clearly around $9K from ascending triangle support - in hindsight. Patience is a virtue.

[Globb0]

Moar sideways later...….

Now we are not looking so good, yes still in the boring duldrums of sideways, but looking weaker bands are pinching but yet RSI is in the gutter, where is the up going to come from?

We are stuck in the bottom half of the band. Not much signs of green.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yay I was right, and we closed above the resistance.

We can say goodbye to my nice fun up to 10k trendline. Awesome thanks for the taste of over 10k on the daily close.

Well see what I mean, we went nowhere really, we are stuck in the dead range

Things look good for a leg up?

Now we are not looking so good

Trader with 30 year experience once told me - If you want to trade technical check if asset is moving in a technical way currently. Sometimes emotions on market are that big (or few big players are fighting) than all we can do is just sit and watch. Asset is moving randomly/emotional instead of technical. That's how i see current BTC short term movements.

Just take a look at this.


10 000 is the strongest resistance we've seen in last few years. Possible dump (profit for shorters) -40%. Possible instant pump +50%. Emotions are on the edge of explosion. I don't think that it is possible to see anything on 1h, 4h, 1D candles. Take position and set stoploss or wait for end of this price battle and than take position. Thats all we can do now IMO. After that create trend lines, support, resistances etc. and trade based on it.

[Globb0]

The year so far in bitcoin




Still stuck in the range, at zoom in levels it even looks more negative.  

[Globb0]

Not much movement, but the halvening is slipping away in time terms and it was always a few months before the resulting move


I continue to be concerned with the volume, is it me or is it declining?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I continue to be concerned with the volume, is it me or is it declining?

Yep, it looks like its declining. But I think that we are spoiled with volumes from 9000 - 3500 - 9000. Volumes that was caused by extreme volatility and emotions. I can't imagine an asset that is stuck for 2 months in narrow range and does not loose volume. It seems impossible to me. The longer we see the same price the more people that are satisfied with it are done with their transactions no matter what the final direction is especially now when we can bet in both directions (short, long).

[Febo]

I continue to be concerned with the volume, is it me or is it declining?

Traders are going on vacations. Late summers are always slow. If something dramatic happens they will fast return, if not we might have 2 more slow months.

[exstasie]

I continue to be concerned with the volume, is it me or is it declining?

Definitely declining. I don't find it particularly concerning. Actually it's rather expected in a tight range like this. This is the calm before the storm.

I expect volume to surge when a breakout finally occurs. That will help to confirm the new trend direction too.

[Globb0]

Thanks for all the replies.

Yes for sure I have mixed feelings. Yes up can happen any minute, FOMO being the best weapon there.

But it really feels weak, there is not such an bitcoin buzz right now. At the same time we are over 9k who can complain. Once it was nice to be over 1k. 

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks for all the replies.

Yes for sure I have mixed feelings. Yes up can happen any minute, FOMO being the best weapon there.

But it really feels weak, there is not such an bitcoin buzz right now. At the same time we are over 9k who can complain. Once it was nice to be over 1k. 

Sure.    Feels like a kind of Lindy Effect that seems to be developing in this area, and $9k could feel kind of boring and blahze as you suggest, Globb0, and probably part of the reason that we are not feeling very excited about $9k remains that we have been here a lot of times in the past 3 years, and almost as if $9k could transition into a floor or even a sub-floor, even though there are far from any guarantees of even that.

Probably the folks who have been investing into bitcoin for 4 years or more (let's say dollar cost averaging) are feeling a decent amount of comfortableness, even with $9k, and even the dollar cost averagers of 2 to 3 years are likely to be in decent profits as long as they largely kept a DCA accumulating system that did not devolve into too many playing around habits.   We could look at DCA charts and play with the timeline (such as 4 years) to see how various time periods of DCAing would have worked out, and it appears that the longer DCA'ing the higher the percentage of profits and the more that BTC differentiates itself from DCAing into other assets, such as gold and equities or even just holding dollars. 

Of course, front load investing (or even buying on the dip) could have been potentially helpful too, even though it may have cost extra if buying too much BTC in higher price ranges, such as supra $10k.. and running out of fiat to buy on the larger dips, such as dips into the $3ks and $4ks. 

So you would have NOT gone wrong with practices that largely played out as a kind of dollar cost averaging, but there may be some decent number of folks who have been playing around with their BTC investment trying to magnify or leverage their BTC investments and maybe not always playing the price swings correctly and maybe are not as much into profits as the strict DCA-ers, so they could be a bit more anxious for orange coin number go up.

[Wind_FURY]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,



I believe it's an opportunity to buy NOW.

[dragonvslinux]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,



I believe it's an opportunity to buy NOW.

I think buying now in the 9K-10K range is merely for those who didn't position themselves appropriately over the past year. I know I sold trading positions around $8.8K roughly on the run up prior to $10K, based on the likelihood of a pull-back below $8K at the time (that now looks less likely, but still more than possible), but making a decent trade isn't something I regret. Knowing that if price does break down than the level I sold certain positions at is pretty much where I'd want to selling anyway, so merely takes this thought process out the equation.

If you're dollar cost averaging than the 9-10K range is probably gold dust for you (whereas I prefer to DCA dips than rallies personally), but this mentally of chasing price later on is unhealthy, it merely means you failed to buy enough at $6-7K range where there was plenty of time and opportunity to do so. Unless you're averaging in at higher levels that is, I therefore won't assume your positioning. It's merely this thinking is what will lead people to push prices upto $14K and even beyond if Bitcoin moves above $10K, overlooking the reality that we probably still have 6-12 months of consolidation below 20K to go (based on 2016 extrapolation), that'd likely re-test $10-12K levels anyway in a healthy sustainable manner.

The reality is that so far, most of the past 2 years has been the time to buy, with the exception of $10K+ levels. Not surprising either, most people like 50% discounts in life. As a trader, you're waiting for $8.6K support levels to be broken to short, or $10K ish levels to go long. Everything in-between is just chop, noise and speculation.

TL:DR: Liked the meme, but don't think it's unhealthy to think in this way. You're also welcome to think how you please  

[Wind_FURY]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,



I believe it's an opportunity to buy NOW.

I think buying now in the 9K-10K range is merely for those who didn't position themselves appropriately over the past year. I know I sold trading positions around $8.8K roughly on the run up prior to $10K, based on the likelihood of a pull-back below $8K at the time (that now looks less likely, but still more than possible), but making a decent trade isn't something I regret. Knowing that if price does break down than the level I sold certain positions at is pretty much where I'd want to selling anyway, so merely takes this thought process out the equation.

But are you happy hodling that fiat now? Don't be the girl in the third panel.

If you're dollar cost averaging than the 9-10K range is probably gold dust for you (whereas I prefer to DCA dips than rallies personally), but this mentally of chasing price later on is unhealthy, it merely means you failed to buy enough at $6-7K range where there was plenty of time and opportunity to do so. Unless you're averaging in at higher levels that is, I therefore won't assume your positioning. It's merely this thinking is what will lead people to push prices upto $14K and even beyond if Bitcoin moves above $10K, overlooking the reality that we probably still have 6-12 months of consolidation below 20K to go (based on 2016 extrapolation), that'd likely re-test $10-12K levels anyway in a healthy sustainable manner.

The reality is that so far, most of the past 2 years has been the time to buy, with the exception of $10K+ levels. Not surprising either, most people like 50% discounts in life. As a trader, you're waiting for $8.6K support levels to be broken to short, or $10K ish levels to go long. Everything in-between is just chop, noise and speculation.

TL:DR: Liked the meme, but don't think it's unhealthy to think in this way. You're also welcome to think how you please  

I believe each one of us will NOT be thinking about what buying strategy was the best, once we're HODLING 6-digit Bitcoins years from now.

[dragonvslinux]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,



I believe it's an opportunity to buy NOW.

I think buying now in the 9K-10K range is merely for those who didn't position themselves appropriately over the past year. I know I sold trading positions around $8.8K roughly on the run up prior to $10K, based on the likelihood of a pull-back below $8K at the time (that now looks less likely, but still more than possible), but making a decent trade isn't something I regret. Knowing that if price does break down than the level I sold certain positions at is pretty much where I'd want to selling anyway, so merely takes this thought process out the equation.

But are you happy hodling that fiat now? Don't be the girl in the third panel.

Yeh 10-20% I'm always happy to hodl, I'm not willing to risk much more than that right now though. Hence if that percentage increased to 15-25% then I'd be reducing my risk.

I believe each one of us will NOT be thinking about what buying strategy was the best, once we're HODLING 6-digit Bitcoins years from now.

I think that's the first thing I'll be considering to be honest, whether buying dips or dollar cost averaging was better.
Will give me a better idea of whether I should be dollar cost selling at a 6-figure Bitcoin or selling the rally 

[exstasie]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,

That's how it feels in the run-up to a bubble. I don't feel that kind of urgency at the moment.

Here's how I look at this situation. A breakdown below $8.6K could easily reach the $6K area. That's a 35% gain from here; 35% more BTC for someone waiting to buy the dip. On the other hand, an upwards breakout will occur above $10.5K. That's 14% above the current price.

I don't blame anyone for sitting on the fence.

[JayJuanGee]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,



I believe it's an opportunity to buy NOW.

I think buying now in the 9K-10K range is merely for those who didn't position themselves appropriately over the past year. I know I sold trading positions around $8.8K roughly on the run up prior to $10K, based on the likelihood of a pull-back below $8K at the time (that now looks less likely, but still more than possible), but making a decent trade isn't something I regret. Knowing that if price does break down than the level I sold certain positions at is pretty much where I'd want to selling anyway, so merely takes this thought process out the equation.

But are you happy hodling that fiat now? Don't be the girl in the third panel.

Yeh 10-20% I'm always happy to hodl, I'm not willing to risk much more than that right now though. Hence if that percentage increased to 15-25% then I'd be reducing my risk.

I believe each one of us will NOT be thinking about what buying strategy was the best, once we're HODLING 6-digit Bitcoins years from now.

I think that's the first thing I'll be considering to be honest, whether buying dips or dollar cost averaging was better.
Will give me a better idea of whether I should be dollar cost selling at a 6-figure Bitcoin or selling the rally 

One of the main points of DCA is that the person engaged in such practice does not think about the price and likely should not go through some kind of nonsense second guessing whether it would have been better to wait for dips, blah blah blah.

Sure, if you want to wait for dips, that is your preference, but just seems to be bullshit to try to compete with either someone else or your other self over a practice that overall has different considerations... including that DCA is way advantaged in terms of figuring out a budget that accounts for an accumulators ongiong cashflow, so if an accumulator has $12,k extra that is coming in over the next year, but may only be able to authorize half of that for buying bitcoin. Therefore, s/he may only be able to authorize $500 per month or $125 per week.  It would not be so smart for such a person, who might already be trying to stay within a reasonable balance with finances, to Front load the whole $6k at various points of time that may or may not work out, including s/he might not even have such $6k in his/her pocket because it is based on cash coming in, not cash that has already come in and is just sitting there waiting and gathering dust.

[Wind_FURY]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,

That's how it feels in the run-up to a bubble. I don't feel that kind of urgency at the moment.

The one waiting with no feel of that kind of urgency might also be the girl in the left-most panel.

Here's how I look at this situation. A breakdown below $8.6K could easily reach the $6K area. That's a 35% gain from here; 35% more BTC for someone waiting to buy the dip. On the other hand, an upwards breakout will occur above $10.5K. That's 14% above the current price.

I don't blame anyone for sitting on the fence.

That might also be what the girl in the right-most panel thought, then joined the FOMO crowd.

[exstasie]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,

That's how it feels in the run-up to a bubble. I don't feel that kind of urgency at the moment.

The one waiting with no feel of that kind of urgency might also be the girl in the left-most panel.

I've been through 2 bubbles so I know what it looks like. Price has remained stuck in a ~$2,000 range for the last 2 months, so.......no. Anyone who perceives urgency to buy right now is a perma-bull who doesn't have a realistic sense of (or care for) whether price could fall. They are not interested in taking a calculated risk at accumulating more BTC.

Remember, price already nearly tripled from the lows a few months ago. Yet the long term (2017-present or 2019-present) bear trends are still intact. The way I see it, being a long term bull and waiting to accumulate lower than here seems reasonable. Are those lower prices guaranteed? No, this is a calculated risk.

[Wind_FURY]

Longer expected time of waiting, or not, I personally wouldn't want my next bull market experience to end like this,

That's how it feels in the run-up to a bubble. I don't feel that kind of urgency at the moment.

The one waiting with no feel of that kind of urgency might also be the girl in the left-most panel.

I've been through 2 bubbles so I know what it looks like. Price has remained stuck in a ~$2,000 range for the last 2 months, so.......no. Anyone who perceives urgency to buy right now is a perma-bull who doesn't have a realistic sense of (or care for) whether price could fall.

But anyone who waits today might miss a golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000 because it might never fall anymore.

They are not interested in taking a calculated risk at accumulating more BTC.

It's calculated. Buy the dips, and HODL. Dollar-cost-averaging.