Globb0 BTC charts

[exstasie]

Seems doubtful now. Today's daily candle (-5%) looks like a confirmation of a lower high.

Yes. I started doubt in my prediction after strong bounce from 11000$. Now its just impossible.

BTC and stocks both look quite ugly right now. At best, sideways. At worst, significant downside. That's my opinion.

So much blood everywhere. We have covid-19 second wave fear, US election fear. It will all make next 3 month very exciting/frightening.

What's your take? Is the market pricing in a Trump loss and a subsequent repeal of his pro-business tax policies? I don't have the best read on election prospects right now.

If we are in a mid-term bear trend, do you view it as continuation of the post-2017 bear market? Or a temporary pullback in a new bull market?

[1714668640]

1714668640

[Tytanowy Janusz]

What's your take? Is the market pricing in a Trump loss and a subsequent repeal of his pro-business tax policies? I don't have the best read on election prospects right now.

If we are in a mid-term bear trend, do you view it as continuation of the post-2017 bear market? Or a temporary pullback in a new bull market?

According to forecast trump has little to 0 chace to win.


I think that market won't like it and we might see further dump till elections. Then we will have buy rumor sell facts stage - recover. Than printers will continue to do brrrrr and market will fully recover.

Venezuela


Your country may be on fire, but if you do brrr quickly enough stock markets will grow 10x in a year.

[exstasie]

What's your take? Is the market pricing in a Trump loss and a subsequent repeal of his pro-business tax policies? I don't have the best read on election prospects right now.

If we are in a mid-term bear trend, do you view it as continuation of the post-2017 bear market? Or a temporary pullback in a new bull market?

According to forecast trump has little to 0 chace to win.


I think that market won't like it and we might see further dump till elections. Then we will have buy rumor sell facts stage - recover. Than printers will continue to do brrrrr and market will fully recover.

Interesting. Didn't Clinton have similar landslide numbers before being upset in 2016?

JPMorgan analysts are leaning the opposite way. They've been telling investors to prepare for a Trump win: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term

I agree though, in the big picture it doesn't really matter. The money printer will eventually go brrrr either way. But each scenario will create its own market narrative and will affect the short term trajectory.

[STT]

Excessive easy money policy results in zero growth, the stockmarket reflects the dilution of value more then growth or gains.   Thats the average result anyway, its happened dozens of times in many countries so theres plenty of data but economically theres no getting a gain from an inaccurate currency.   Speculators like the bias to future pricing over fundamental dynamics that hard money might dictate, a more boring economy but often more profitable steady growth then the gambles taken with easy money.

According to forecast trump has little to 0 chace to win.

More I hear that the more I worry because its not a straight vote count that decides it so its likely nobody can say perfectly, add in that people just wont report their literal vote.       People will begrudgingly vote for 1 candidate that may keep them in a job or industry that might be wound down under the policies of the opposing candidate.
   I'm willing to bet either party as winning if they stray too far from 50/50, I think thats where the real odds are biased to.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Interesting. Didn't Clinton have similar landslide numbers before being upset in 2016?

You are right. I forget the fact that Clinton was a favorite and yet she lost. Even rates were similar:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Back to BTC. Nice recover after breaking 10200. Didn't expect that.

[exstasie]

Interesting. Didn't Clinton have similar landslide numbers before being upset in 2016?

You are right. I forget the fact that Clinton was a favorite and yet she lost. Even rates were similar:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Back to BTC. Nice recover after breaking 10200. Didn't expect that.

Same, I expected some follow through from bears when the daily lows were undercut 2 days ago. Instead, price just sat there and then sprang right back into the range. Makes me wonder if this is going to be a sideways time-based correction (like this past June-July) rather than a deep price-based correction.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Same, I expected some follow through from bears when the daily lows were undercut 2 days ago. Instead, price just sat there and then sprang right back into the range. Makes me wonder if this is going to be a sideways time-based correction (like this past June-July) rather than a deep price-based correction.

I'm also very confused. BTC and SP500 are very correlated last times.I can't imagine SP500 crash without BTC dump. When i look at sp500 chart it seems to me that we are doomed to do something like this or even steeper.



While on BTC i'm a little less bearish. Going for something like this (weekly candles on both):



Do you think its time for BTC to finally show it strength against SP500?

[Globb0]

Oh no offence, the chatter is good. Lets dig into stuff.

Here is my latest chart. Is there any hopium in it for you?

[Globb0]

It hasn't really escaped that gravity, still the support remains intact

[JL0]

It hasn't really escaped that gravity, still the support remains intact

What do you think about the CME gap in the $9K area ?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

What do you think about the CME gap in the $9K area ?

I think that tail is not steering the dog.

CME volume - 5800 cont = 29 000 BTC = $ 300M
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_quotes_globex.html

While volume on binance futures and bitmex futures only is equal to $2.3 bil. Total bitcoin volume according to coingecko - $ 19 bil

If anyhow CME gaps would steer bitcoin price than it will be the easiest and cheapest way to manipulate BTC price. I doubt, but I am also surprised how many people are repeating this. Maybe some whales are trying to manipulate BTC that way by creating such gaps and then pay shillers (youtubers etc.) to spread it out as much as it is possible and others are repeating?

I know that on traditional market it is the case but BTC is not regulated stock with high volume located on market that is not 24/7 open.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

What you guys thin about it? I was not that bullish for very long time.




what is the target of this movement according to you? In my opinion, we will stop at 12k, where bitcoin will be put to the final test - ATH or 7k

[Febo]

A lot of people was very negative in last few days, that is usually a good sign.  I dont expect some sharp growth this year and early next, but a small growth and month of stability and then again and again and again and again. Yes can go back for a week or so, but general sentiment should be moderately positive.  But what do I know.

[Globb0]

Hmmm this is a potential flagpole pattern?

equal rise again?

[dragonvslinux]

Probably

[exstasie]

Hmmm this is a potential flagpole pattern?

equal rise again?

Sure, I could see a measured move there. A stop run above the $11,200 pivot into resistance near $11,500 (followed by more ranging) would make a lot of sense to me.

Something tells me the market will continue ranging below the August highs for quite some time. Months probably. No moon yet!

[Globb0]

Hmmm this is a potential flagpole pattern?

equal rise again?

Confirmed, but it is quite zoomed in, I expect some profit taking is possible here.

[El duderino_]

Hmmm this is a potential flagpole pattern?

equal rise again?

Sure, I could see a measured move there. A stop run above the $11,200 pivot into resistance near $11,500 (followed by more ranging) would make a lot of sense to me.

Something tells me the market will continue ranging below the August highs for quite some time. Months probably. No moon yet!

Months...?? Let us moon instead please THX
 

[JayJuanGee]

Hmmm this is a potential flagpole pattern?

equal rise again?

Sure, I could see a measured move there. A stop run above the $11,200 pivot into resistance near $11,500 (followed by more ranging) would make a lot of sense to me.

Something tells me the market will continue ranging below the August highs for quite some time. Months probably. No moon yet!

Months...?? Let us moon instead please THX
 

That b called koreck, to me.

No need to wait months, even though don't rule any lil tinglie out, either.

Frequently, we get these bear calls - but for some reason the BTC price keeps going up, and hopefully NOT too many newbies get tricked out of scenarios that involve waiting to buy coins at a lower price that might not happen...


But hey, their FOMO tears do help to fuel later irrational UPpity.  Doesn't really hurt the HODLers - even though I have seen a lot of no coiners, precoiners, fence sitters and waiting for DOWNitiers, failing to act... and pee pare for UP.

[exstasie]

Something tells me the market will continue ranging below the August highs for quite some time. Months probably. No moon yet!

Months...?? Let us moon instead please THX
 

That b called koreck, to me.

No need to wait months, even though don't rule any lil tinglie out, either.

Frequently, we get these bear calls - but for some reason the BTC price keeps going up, and hopefully NOT too many newbies get tricked out of scenarios that involve waiting to buy coins at a lower price that might not happen...

Not a bear call, more of a sideways call. As you know, I've been speculating about a long term triangle for many months now. Still looking good: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg55282472#msg55282472

This wasn't a bear call either:

Short term, it looks like we should expect a thrust above the $11,200 resistance. This symmetrical triangle broke to the upside:

Just calling them like I see them. Will reassess if BTC is holding in the $12,000s again.