The Ending of Covid-19

[virasog]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

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[virasog]

[Source: https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ ]

[Cnut237]

Covid-19 has already reached the peak

It may have peaked, depending on future responses.
The lockdowns across the world have in many societies reduced the 'R₀' value to below 1... which means that on average each infected person passes the virus on to less than 1 new person. This is how we control the exponential growth - by keeping R₀ below 1. What happens as the lockdowns end and societies begin to resume some approximation to 'normal' activity is that people come into contact with more people again. So there is the chance that R₀ rises again past 1 and we see a return to exponential growth, and a fresh outbreak. This is why strategies such as some form of physical distancing need to remain in place, and why masks etc are important, and why some form of automated contact tracing is a good idea (privacy concerns notwithstanding).

It may have peaked for the moment, but this isn't the end, we need to take great care to ensure that we don't get new peaks as this thing progresses. The only real solutions are a vaccine or else enough of the population has been infected and carries antibodies to make it very difficult for it to spread. It's not just a matter of time until CV-19 goes away by itself - it won't go away, it will remain, we just need to keep that R₀ <1.

[boyptc]

The flattening curve?

We are all hopeful for the ending of this crisis and I'm also hearing the news about the coronavac with the meaning of corona vaccine.

[semobo]

You cannot say covid 19 will end that much soon because most of the people re under lockdown so they are not immune to the virus yet, only we can say if everyone infected with corona and the one who survive from it will get the immune to attack the virus in the future.

[UserU]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

[semobo]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

But not every country can keep all their people under lockdown because they don't have much reserve to survive for too longer that is why they wanted to bring some cashflow with lot of restrictions.

[bitbollo]

According to current papers/peer reviewed works, without a vaccine/treatment for COVID19, we can see "resurgence in contagion as late as 2024".  


Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/24/science.abb5793

[Abstract It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.]

[Zeehaxan]

It is such a relief to know that it has peaked and now it will slowly fade away but i think country wise it is a bit different, i hope and pray that by mid to last week of may it will literally drop to near zero as we have seen in China but i think we will still need to wear mask and avoid gatherings untill a proven vaccine or medicine is out.

[virasog]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

[Naida_BR]

It is such a relief to know that it has peaked and now it will slowly fade away but i think country wise it is a bit different, i hope and pray that by mid to last week of may it will literally drop to near zero as we have seen in China but i think we will still need to wear mask and avoid gatherings untill a proven vaccine or medicine is out.

China has again problem with COVID-19 in another city - not in Wuhan.
We haven't reached the peak. At least for this period of time maybe we have. But in autumn we are going to see a new wave coming and as they weather is going to be colder we are going to see a bigger outbreak of this virus.

[UserU]

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

No choice. If the cases increase, then the lockdown would extend even further. Should flatten the curve first.

[BADecker]

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

No choice. If the cases increase, then the lockdown would extend even further. Should flatten the curve first.

But where is the point that the lockdowns cause the deaths? If people are locked down, they can't grow food. So, they starve. And food is only a part of it.

Fat people will be the last people alive if we have continued lockdowns.

[cheater detector]

I still doubt this prediction, it's not an easy to predict about this pandemic. The active and daily cases is still gain more from day to day. Only a few country like german, italy, china, korea etc has drop drastically, but not for many other countries. I really want to end this pandemic soon, but logically it's very hard because it spread everywhere easily.

[Artemis3]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

But not every country can keep all their people under lockdown because they don't have much reserve to survive for too longer that is why they wanted to bring some cashflow with lot of restrictions.

And this is why its going to stay for as long as it takes for the vaccine to be made. Relax isolation, numbers bump, isolate again...

Rather than funny it is sad. Sending people out to work as sacrifice...

[CristianOff]

Imagine if there was a movie about your life and there is a cut-scene where you post
this topic here about the ending of covid-19

Do you think your life is:

• comedy
• action
• sci-fi
• documentary
• something else

Now based on your life's genre, we have different outcomes:

comedy
The next cut-scene is May 31 where covid-19 cases have doubled and recovery rate has halved like Bitcoin. Economy is dying
and there are no supplies.
It's funny because you HODL bitcoin before that and you now have a lot of money you can't spend.

action
The next cut-scene is May 31. The virus has evolved and is now transforming people in zombies. The world became
an unconstitutional anarchy and everyone is in survive mode. Your job to save the world depends on a trip to Area 51
where there is this hidden secret gun that when you shoot in the air it makes everyone virus-free. The problem? Everyone in
Area 51 is infected.

sci-fi
The situation is as bad as in the action movie. Your scientist friend Franz Archimedes informed you about his recent discovery of
time travelling machine. He needs some items/elements that can be found only in Moscow, Russia ; Wuhan, China ; Milan, Italy  and NYC, US.
You bring those elements back to him but the time travelling went wrong and you went in the future rather than the past. Bitcoin is at $10,000,000/BTC (adjusted for 2020 dollar)
The movie extends for like 4 - 5 hours.

documentary
Here we see mister virasog in his natural habitat. It's the mating period and he is looking for a girl but unfortunately can't find one. What he doesn't
know is that he is currently being watched by a dangerous hunter: the covid-19. Mister virasog however is not an easy prey. He was gifted by nature
with the ability of staying home and washing his hands very often.

[KiloFoxtrot]

I still doubt this prediction, it's not an easy to predict about this pandemic. The active and daily cases is still gain more from day to day. Only a few country like german, italy, china, korea etc has drop drastically, but not for many other countries. I really want to end this pandemic soon, but logically it's very hard because it spread everywhere easily.

It's a prediction only, of course, that's based on recent data so far. In reality, there's lots of information that's lacking and/or even lagging, including the testing of those suspected to have COVID-19 as well. Hopefully, this prediction model would be correct since a lot of lives are depending on these data, on how to proceed moving forward with their lives in general.

[kelawannaepa]

Waiting for the Covid-19 vaccine

How are vaccines made?
The most common way to make a vaccine involves using the virus antigen itself..

In any vaccine, the strain of virus that needs an immunisation must be identified before anything can be done. However, once the strain is identified, the antigen is isolated and either weakened or made inactive through a chemical process...

Virus proteins that are used to create vaccines are sometimes grown in cells that come from chicken embryos, or alternatively, they can be grown in a bioreactor like a Petri dish. This allows the antigens to grow in a controlled environment and be isolated from their host cells in order to create vaccinations.

When a virus is weakened or inactive, it can't reproduce in order to cause illness, but the body's immune system can still create antibodies to fight it off. That way, if you do come into contact with an active form of the virus, your body should be equipped to fight it before it makes you ill.

Vaccines in an outbreak
During unprecedented times, like the current coronavirus outbreak, vaccines must still go through the same process, but because the demand is higher a fast-tracked process is usually possible.

Right now, health professionals around the globe are racing against the clock to get a vaccine for this virus. However, the issue is that creating a vaccine takes time. However, the fact that all efforts from health professionals around the globe will be focused on getting a vaccine could quicken the process...

But in order to do this, scientists need to identify the exact strain of the virus causing the pandemic.

Before any vaccine can be produced, the exact strain causing the epidemic or pandemic must be identified and isolated, as with any other vaccine production..

Unfortunately, even in cases where an immunisation is desperately needed, it can take a long time to create one, and certain processes can only be accelerated so much before safety is compromised.

Any vaccine, including those made for a mass outbreak, are produced in the same ways. However, Moderna, the company behind one of the current vaccines being trialled for COVID-19, uses mRNA technology - a faster method than traditional vaccines.

Messenger RNA (mRNA) is a molecule found in cells which carries DNA codes from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, where a process called protein synthesis is carried out.

The DNA sequence of the virus is transcribed into mRNA, meaning that the actual antigen of the virus itself isn't included in the vaccine,. Despite that, it still contains everything that the body needs to create specific antibodies to fight off the virus.


Would be helpful
...... There are excerpts ..........

[boyptc]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

They're relaxing and thinking that they can slow down the spread in their countries.

But I think they've learned the lesson from those countries that's accountable for their negligence with the reaction they've made to delay the spread.

[peter0425]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

Even the world reached the Peak of this virus but if people on each country will not do the necessary actions preventing to have a second wave then for sure it will come again like what happen in other countries that first declares their safeties.

And also there are other cases that some patient that recovers from the virus are now happens that acquiring again for some reason that cannot be explained.

So basically there are other cases that may grow again if not treating right.