The Big Short movie, BTC edition?

[sgbett]

@exstasie. I disagree. Speculating about this is learning about the economics behind the cryptospace and we might have only begun to know the real story, I reckon.

Also, the movie that can be made based on the real story behind this might put the movies The Big Short and Wolf of Wall Street on a lower level hehe. Read this article. Everything appears to be planned from the very beginning.



Tether and Bitfinex are not the same corporation. Tether controls the issuance contracts for all USDT in circulation on all blockchains, but Bitfinex manages the backing assets.

If Tether dies, the keys are passed on to another LLC and life goes on.
If Bitfinex dies, Binance can then make a deal with Tether to back the network with their own basket.
If Binance dies, Bittrex can then replace them.
If Bittrex dies, OKCoin can then replace them.

So while it’s obvious the market continues to shrink and must deal with the inevitable turmoil all of those exchange closings would create… USDT very well has every chance of outliving all of them.

That’s it. Tether wins.

Source https://bryceweiner.medium.com/hopes-expectations-black-holes-and-revelations-or-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-7747cf8ea11c

Good thread. I guess wilful ignorance of what's going on at Tether to be expected when it's pumping your bags ;p

What's surprising is that also appears to make people blind to the fact that if Tether goes down everything goes down with it - I don't think people have considered how inextricably linked BTC is to it. Most of the BTC volume is in tether. Most people won't be able to exit.

Curiously this could have the affect of causing a BTC spike, if USDT becomes a hot potato, then people will want to exit to BTC at any price. We saw the same thing with GOX when USD withdrawals started to fail - this started around November 2013, BTC withdrawals were still processing so people with USD stuck in Gox would buy BTC forcing the price to run up even further. Take the mid point of nov as an example price was ~$500 this more than doubled in the following two weeks.

Of course eventually BTC withdrawals stopped eventually too, and we all saw what happened next - people ultimately prefer dollars they can't withdraw over bitcoin they cant withdraw and so the USD/BTC price on Gox took a walloping. (some plucky soul recognised the steep discount to fair value of assets even after a write down, and wired money to Gox to take advantage!... oh how they were mocked! Good thing that "what randos OTI think" isn't important to me )

But yeah, that FBI page... its coming, 4 years is nothing! I've been waiting 10 years for Bitcoin to deliver the utility it promised... starting too look good now with BSV! I reckon its no seat to wait another 10 to see it fully take off.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. I disagree. Speculating about this is learning about the economics behind the cryptospace and we might have only begun to know the real story, I reckon.

How are we learning anything by speculating without the facts?

People wire fiat to exchanges, buy BTC, price goes up. People wire fiat to Tether, they send it to exchanges and buy BTC, price goes up. In that sense, Tether should have an effect on the market (like any other notable exchange) if it's used at any real volume. That's about all we know.

I don't see the value in all the FUD. Plenty of exchanges could be issuing unbacked assets, running fractional reserve, etc. But until shit actually hits the fan and withdrawals are cut off, there isn't much to know or do, except to minimize our own exposure to third party risk.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. However, where is the FUD? It is Bitfinex, Tether and iFinex's business activites that are questionable. No one is conjuring stories based in lies and nothing. They are based on the acts of people behind Tether itself.

This article might provide more knowledge for you.



Bitfinex is one of the historically largest Bitcoin exchanges and Tether is by far the largest stablecoin. Each potentially has significant influence over the industry on their own, and their interconnectedness makes this more of a concern. However, since both were founded years ago and many of the events have happened and been in revealed in bits and spurts it can be difficult to understand their place in the cryptocurrency environment. This will hopefully serve as a basic introductory document that will then prompt further research.

Source https://bennettftomlin.com/2020/12/08/an-introduction-to-the-tether-bitfinex-controversy/

[Botnake]

after the pump there will definitely be a dump, but currently the bulls still dominate,
so for dumps it looks like we still need more time, the most important thing is that we have to be careful,
don't be greedy when buying and selling Bitcoin,

What can you expect, if it will continue to pump and will not dump, it's not a bitcoin market anymore, it's not its usual, so we should be aware with that. This is not a big short movie because bitcoin does not end, or will not end, it might have a dump moment but the price in overall are growing, which makes it a solid investment.

because we are not in the trading zone.

That entirely depends on our individual treatment on bitcoin.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. However, where is the FUD? It is Bitfinex, Tether and iFinex's business activites that are questionable. No one is conjuring stories based in lies and nothing. They are based on the acts of people behind Tether itself.

It's one thing to say their business practices are questionable. It's another thing to spread FUD about them collapsing. See the difference?

In 2016-2017, I was very fearful Bitfinex would be taken down by American law enforcement. That fear didn't serve me any good. It kept me bearish when there was a bull market erupting. Anyone listening to Bitfinex'd and his constant barrage of FUD during the last bubble surely lost coins (or never bought in). That's all empty FUD does. It separates people from their coins.

I've spent the last 5 years being inundated by Tether/Bitfinex FUD that has never played out. Yes, they will probably eventually collapse, but this is no different than the Bitcoin bear who constantly calls the top during a multi-year bull market. Even a broken clock is eventually right.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. Did you read the article? I would argue that it is not FUD because it is not based on lying. It was only a speculation that it might cause a big short similar to the 2007 financial crisis because there are people behind this economy who do very questionable things to pump the market. See the difference? This story behind Tether might become a movie of one of the greatest financial schemes in history.

[philipma1957]

@exstasie. Did you read the article? I would argue that it is not FUD because it is not based on lying. It was only a speculation that it might cause a big short similar to the 2007 financial crisis because there are people behind this economy who do very questionable things to pump the market. See the difference? This story behind Tether might become a movie of one of the greatest financial schemes in history.

I read the article and found the claim that tether is the largest of the stable coins along with it being About 20 billion in value as fairly reassuring.

what do we have three or four major stable coins

biggest is 20 billion so

pretend
20
19
18
17
74 billion for all stable coins.

and btc is worth 23k x 18.5 = over 400 billion

so if tether at 20 billion fully truly crashes and burns 🥵

then other top stables coins could grow along with btc.
you could simply have value shift from tether to the other coins.

I think if two or three stable coins all fail in a few weeks we would have an issue.
but everyone has been talking bad about tether a long time. so it think the fear if realized may just make a it is about time.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. Did you read the article? I would argue that it is not FUD because it is not based on lying.

You don't seem to understand what FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) is.

I'm not arguing the facts, like whether Tether commingled funds or doesn't have 100% backing, etc. Facts are not FUD.

For you to take the very limited facts we have (basically, the ones laid out in that article) and speculate that Tether is about to collapse, that is FUD. You're just speculating without strong basis and spreading fear. That's the kind of empty speculation I don't like to participate in.

It's perfectly reasonable to say Tether is risky and shady, and that one shouldn't hold USDT. I would leave it at that instead of beating a dead horse with this "Tether is going to collapse tomorrow" shit.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. Did you read the article? I would argue that it is not FUD because it is not based on lying.

You don't seem to understand what FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) is.

I'm not arguing the facts, like whether Tether commingled funds or doesn't have 100% backing, etc. Facts are not FUD.

For you to take the very limited facts we have (basically, the ones laid out in that article) and speculate that Tether is about to collapse, that is FUD. You're just speculating without strong basis and spreading fear. That's the kind of empty speculation I don't like to participate in.

It's perfectly reasonable to say Tether is risky and shady, and that one shouldn't hold USDT. I would leave it at that instead of beating a dead horse with this "Tether is going to collapse tomorrow" shit.

Beginning on 2005, Dr. Michael Burry saw the shadiness of the banks in the housing market. No one saw and everyone refused to see what he has seen when he began his big short move. If he went to forums and told everyone about this, would it be FUD based only on speculation also?

[STT]

Even Dr. Burry would not claim to be the only one who saw that, I can remember seeing a TV program on fraud in the mortgage industry at the time.    The punch line is no one really gave a dam because it was profitable and so long as prices rose why complain and ruin a good thing.    I did think something would result but I took no action, I read in the Economist a full explanation of Exters triangle and how deleveraging would topple an economy from this constant knock on effect and natural tightening of the overly loose money lending; that article was was early 2008 again its a bit over my head and hard for me to know if it was correct so I only recognised later it was on point.
   We will have a fallout bigger then 2008 because the debt situation overall is broken but its sovereign debt not companies so its hard to call but also obvious and my point back in 2005 people knew like they know now its going to fail in some way.
   The tie into crypto is somehow that even with flaws its represents a better standard which is remarkable because I agree Bitcoin isnt perfect by far, its very frothy and prone to harsh pull backs; rising like this in such a brief time period represents volatility and unstable pricing represents some discouragement to business.    Im not sure tether is going to fall over amidst FIAT being such a loose standard currently.

[exstasie]

You don't seem to understand what FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) is.

I'm not arguing the facts, like whether Tether commingled funds or doesn't have 100% backing, etc. Facts are not FUD.

For you to take the very limited facts we have (basically, the ones laid out in that article) and speculate that Tether is about to collapse, that is FUD. You're just speculating without strong basis and spreading fear. That's the kind of empty speculation I don't like to participate in.

It's perfectly reasonable to say Tether is risky and shady, and that one shouldn't hold USDT. I would leave it at that instead of beating a dead horse with this "Tether is going to collapse tomorrow" shit.

Beginning on 2005, Dr. Michael Burry saw the shadiness of the banks in the housing market. No one saw and everyone refused to see what he has seen when he began his big short move. If he went to forums and told everyone about this, would it be FUD based only on speculation also?

Maybe. I don't know anything about him or what he said at the time.

Fundamentally, FUD is about fearmongering about the unknown. It doesn't necessarily mean such speculation has no basis, or that FUD'rs must be wrong at the end of the day.

I'm pretty sure I said earlier that I believe Tether will go down someday, likely from law enforcement seizures. It's not the notion of this that bothers me. It's the speculation that it's inevitable and coming soon that bothers me.

Bitfinex and Tether have always impressed me with their ability to dodge every bullet that comes their way. I don't like to bet against them anymore.

[bbc.reporter]

What Michael Burry said on 2005 is that the derivatives the were rated AAA and BBB by the corrupt rating agencies were made up of bad mortgages and the bubble would pop. Is this FUD if it is based on facts?

The definition of FUD that you are using might be wrong. FUD is based on propaganda and lies to achieve its purpose.

In any case, the mainstream media is beginning to speculate on it also. There might be a situation where this issue will be unavoidable.



Bitcoin hit an all-time high today at $20,000 and “hodlers” have been rejoicing. However the upswing this year leaves consistent questions about the issuance of Tether, the stablecoin (USDT) that seemingly has a limitless ability to print money. The flow of Tether into Bitcoin generally correlates to the rise in price particularly over the past year - whenever Bitcoin seems to fall, a load of new Tethers are created (often over $50m at a time) and buys BTC, taking the price of BTC back up.

This staggering increase of over $4b of new Tethers implies that someone paid $4b into Tether to purchase Bitcoin in just the past three months. Tether has a somewhat of a checkered past with its policy not to publish any kinds of audits nor show proof of funds. Whether or not they are the recipient of $4b of cash is not known but it raises questions especially when Tether is created over the weekends and other times when other markets wouldn’t normally trade.

So if you’re a Bitcoin believer, just follow the Tether printer and watch the printing. But if they stop printing be wary of the downside if there isn’t that injection of USDT coming so regularly. We may see more on January 21 when the NY Attorney General’s deadline for information from them.

Source https://www.forbes.com/sites/robkniaz/2020/12/16/the-problem-with-bitcoin-at-20000/?sh=5a52743024a0

[philipma1957]

It looks like everyone is waiting for a dump in Bitcoin especially under $ 20k again,
but I am sure the Bitcoin price will not be below $ 20k, because this time there are many hold Bitcoin institutions,
so we can relax like a vacation  .

It has not even reached the July 2019 price of 13k  which would be around 30k.

I say we drift around until we hit 30k then we tank.

At bbc reporter 20 billion is nothing compared to 400 billion.

If tether went belly up it would not be enough to tank the btc market.

it may get a few people jailed.

Most likely BTC would take off  rather than tank.

All the other stable coins would need to fold.

I simply don't see the issue you see when I read that article.

[exstasie]

What Michael Burry said on 2005 is that the derivatives the were rated AAA and BBB by the corrupt rating agencies were made up of bad mortgages and the bubble would pop. Is this FUD if it is based on facts?

Again, it's not about the existence of facts. It's about the intention of instilling fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the target audience. The point of FUD is to elicit emotional reactions and negative sentiment.

I can't speak to Michael Burry and I don't care for the comparison. I've directly explained the difference with regard to Tether, and I'll do it again: Tether has engaged in questionable business practices and is under threat of regulatory action. That's a reasonable take.

Beating a dead horse about how Tether is about to collapse is, on the other hand, FUD.

The definition of FUD that you are using might be wrong. FUD is based on propaganda and lies to achieve its purpose.

This is how people use the term today, and specifically in the crypto space:

The expression “Fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) describes the act of spreading dubious or false information about a business, startup, or cryptocurrency project. The term is also used to describe a set of negative sentiment that spreads around traders and investors when bad news comes out or when the market presents a strong bearish downtrend.

https://academy.binance.com/en/glossary/fear-uncertainty-and-doubt

The whole premise of this thread ("Tether is going to collapse and it's going to crash the BTC market") is to spread FUD.....

[kapalmabur]

many traders choose Long in the current situation,
because this season is a bullish season for bitcoin and crypto currencies,
indeed many altcoins are still cheap, because the altcoin season has not started yet,
therefore now is not the time to see a short movie on bitcoin my friends.

[bbc.reporter]

@philipma1957. I disagree. According to www.cryptocompare.com, Tether is 50% of the volume of the whole cryptospace, I speculate that if they were shutdown by the regulators, it will remove much of the liquidity of the many of the exchanges which also many of them are unbanked and depend on USDT's liquidity. It might cause panic buying of bitcoins and other cryptocoins to withdraw from exchanges, however, it might also cause exchanges to stop trades and freeze withdrawals. If we are successful in buying and withdrawing their coins, we might have a dry market in need of liquidity.

Also, what might happen after? In the big short, the government bailed out the banks by pumping money to the economy. I reckon the government will not bail out the cryptospace in case of our liquidity crisis. I reckon these are questions that should be with us to plant our feet on the ground.




@exstasie. The questions will never be gone until Tether, iFinex shows the documents and the audits.

Also, this is the definition of FUD.


FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt

[exstasie]

@exstasie. The questions will never be gone until Tether, iFinex shows the documents and the audits.

Not going to happen. Their general counsel came out and said as much a few years ago:

“The bottom line is that an audit cannot be obtained,” Hoegner told CoinDesk, claiming that this problem is not unique to his company but one faced by the entire cryptocurrency industry.

He went on:

“The barriers to getting audited are simply too big to overcome right now, and not just for us.”

Those barriers include a steep learning curve for auditors in an emerging industry; accounting standards that predated the advent of cryptocurrency, creating uncertainty about how the rules apply; and the resulting need for auditors to exercise judgment, which is “anathema to a lot of large accounting firms. As a CPA, I understand that,” Hoegner said.

https://www.coindesk.com/tether-review-claims-crypto-asset-fully-backed-theres-catch

Also, this is the definition of FUD.

FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt

Yeah, that's the original definition. I explained how the term FUD is conventionally used today in the trading and cryptocurrency worlds, and provided a relevant source. Remember, you're on the Bitcointalk Speculation forum, and the year is 2020.

Also, it wouldn't be unreasonable to say this type of speculation about Tether fits that original definition anyway. We're talking about disseminating negative information (whether it's dubious is debatable) and fearmongering.

[Inspiron14]

there will be a decline if the hype has ended, but so far if I see, the bitcon hype is still not over,
If you expect the big short to happen you will miss the bullish train.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. The questions will never be gone until Tether, iFinex shows the documents and the audits.

Not going to happen. Their general counsel came out and said as much a few years ago:

“The bottom line is that an audit cannot be obtained,” Hoegner told CoinDesk, claiming that this problem is not unique to his company but one faced by the entire cryptocurrency industry.

He went on:

“The barriers to getting audited are simply too big to overcome right now, and not just for us.”

Those barriers include a steep learning curve for auditors in an emerging industry; accounting standards that predated the advent of cryptocurrency, creating uncertainty about how the rules apply; and the resulting need for auditors to exercise judgment, which is “anathema to a lot of large accounting firms. As a CPA, I understand that,” Hoegner said.

https://www.coindesk.com/tether-review-claims-crypto-asset-fully-backed-theres-catch

Also, this is the definition of FUD.

FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt

Yeah, that's the original definition. I explained how the term FUD is conventionally used today in the trading and cryptocurrency worlds, and provided a relevant source. Remember, you're on the Bitcointalk Speculation forum, and the year is 2020.

Also, it wouldn't be unreasonable to say this type of speculation about Tether fits that original definition anyway. We're talking about disseminating negative information (whether it's dubious is debatable) and fearmongering.

How will the judge determine this case if they will never show documents and audits to remove th doubts behind the backing USDT? Do you assume the investigations will stop?

You are using the word FUD according to your own definition everytime someone asks questions? Are we not allowed to have the right to express our own doubts, ask questions and speculate without being called FUD? You agreed that Tether is shady.

In any case, another speculation for you. This statement from the SEC is very broad and might also cover Tether and many other tokens in the cryptospace.



Source https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2020/comp-pr2020-338.pdf

[exstasie]

How will the judge determine this case if they will never show documents and audits to remove th doubts behind the backing USDT? Do you assume the investigations will stop?

No, the New York prosecutor seems pretty adamant about nailing Tether. I just don't think they have much actual power to do anything, enforcement wise. I wonder if what's really happening is that New York is being used as a pawn by federal prosecutors in an effort to get Tether and Bitfinex to voluntarily incriminate themselves, in a larger federal case. I really don't know though. I don't know how this is all going to turn out.

You are using the word FUD according to your own definition everytime someone asks questions?

No, I provided sources and explained in detail how beating a dead horse about Tether's imminent collapse is FUD. I also explained how it fits your definition of FUD.

In any case, another speculation for you. This statement from the SEC is very broad and might also cover Tether and many other tokens in the cryptospace.

All that means is XRP isn't legal tender. The same applies to BTC too. Doesn't make BTC a security, or USDT.

The SEC doesn't seem that interested in stablecoins. They did make these comments earlier this year, and said in vague terms that stablecoins may or may not be securities, depending on the facts. An SEC advisor recently speculated that stablecoins with fiat-backed reserves probably don't violate securities laws. Supposedly the ones that may are those where a central authority controls price variations. DAI actually comes to mind because it uses a system where a relatively centralized authority increases or decreased CDP interest rates to drive the market towards $1. Ripple comes to mind too the way Ripple Labs has withheld supply and used things like supply lock-ups to manipulate price.