The Big Short movie, BTC edition?

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. I have been thinking about a good reply, however, I cannot say anything how exactly it might happen. I can only speculate that it might begin a new bear market again.

Would this be the end of the cryptospace? No, it will recover similar to 2013, 2017 and also similar to the big shorts on equities markets.

[1715057649]

1715057649

[lixer]

I can only speculate that it might begin a new bear market again.

Would this be the end of the cryptospace? No, it will recover similar to 2013, 2017 and also similar to the big shorts on equities markets.

Obviously we can never deny the fact that bitcoin could always go down, there is really no regulations and no governments and nothing that could stop or try to reverse it, it all depends on the people who trade bitcoin and that means if you and I decide that we do not want to be part of bitcoin anymore and sell our bitcoins, that will decrease the price of bitcoin and if enough people do this the price will tank without anything that could stop it.

However people are thinking purely technically when they are talking about drops yet they do not do it when it comes to increases, same logic applies to increases as well, for example bitcoin could be $100k each and "technically" it is possible, but we do not see it breaking over $15k right now. Which is why we should look at public perception and not what is technically possible.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. I have been thinking about a good reply, however, I cannot say anything how exactly it might happen. I can only speculate that it might begin a new bear market again.

Would this be the end of the cryptospace? No, it will recover similar to 2013, 2017 and also similar to the big shorts on equities markets.

If it happened right now I would bet on a flash crash below $10K, but ultimately the market would end up ranging bullishly and breaking upwards again. I would compare this scenario to the Bitfinex hack of 2016: a temporary dent in a bull market, and the temporary loss of a big chunk of the market's total liquidity.

If it happened in 2022, a few months after the next bubble pops, for example, then I bet it would look more like Mt. Gox. In other words, it would amplify the bear market that was already in play.

That's how I see it anyway.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. Unless the liquidity from a Tether takedown is quickly replaced, I disagree. I speculate that it might take longer for the cryptospace to recover.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. Unless the liquidity from a Tether takedown is quickly replaced, I disagree. I speculate that it might take longer for the cryptospace to recover.

At this point, you're just speculating without basis.

Bitfinex was probably the single biggest spot exchange in 2016, and they didn't quickly replace the liquidity that was lost. It took almost a year for them to pay back the debt, and when they did they were in the middle of a banking crisis (April 2017) where they couldn't physically pay out the USD.

But clearly, there is no stopping a bull market.....

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. The argument was based on the speculation that the NYAG was successful in taking down Tether and take out the liquidity from the cryptospace market.

Also, Tether liquidity is not isolated on Bitfinex. The cryptospace depends on Tether. It can also be argued that it supports the whole cryptospace market.

[exstasie]

@exstasie. The argument was based on the speculation that the NYAG was successful in taking down Tether and take out the liquidity from the cryptospace market.

Just to be clear, the NYAG is ineffectual. They have no capability to effectively enforce anything. Any successful take down of Tether would involve the US Attorneys office, US Department of Justice, etc.

Also, Tether liquidity is not isolated on Bitfinex. The cryptospace depends on Tether. It can also be argued that it supports the whole cryptospace market.

So what? My point was that in mid-2016 when the hack occurred, Bitfinex represented a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity. And yet those losses didn't reverse the new bull market, even though all that liquidity wasn't replaced for the better part of a year.

That's what your entire argument about Tether is about, isn't it? That Tether represents a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity? I'm saying it still doesn't matter, not in the face of a powerful bull market like we're seeing now.

[STT]

Any bull market based off speculation is subject to large pull backs, because the quality of buying is often soft with borrowed or leveraged money that must be repaid on any price fall.   Its quite inevitable and further we stray from moving averages the more risky the move becomes, to develop over time into a large positive price accumulation is fine but very often prices become inaccurate on short term time frames.
   Leverage and BTC should be oil and water in the contrast between them, it leads to sharp moves because unlike other commodities BTC does not ever produce more in response to demand so I think we'll always have to be careful on the price cutting both ways.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. The argument was based on the speculation that the NYAG was successful in taking down Tether and take out the liquidity from the cryptospace market.

Just to be clear, the NYAG is ineffectual. They have no capability to effectively enforce anything. Any successful take down of Tether would involve the US Attorneys office, US Department of Justice, etc.

Also, Tether liquidity is not isolated on Bitfinex. The cryptospace depends on Tether. It can also be argued that it supports the whole cryptospace market.

So what? My point was that in mid-2016 when the hack occurred, Bitfinex represented a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity. And yet those losses didn't reverse the new bull market, even though all that liquidity wasn't replaced for the better part of a year.

That's what your entire argument about Tether is about, isn't it? That Tether represents a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity? I'm saying it still doesn't matter, not in the face of a powerful bull market like we're seeing now.

I had a similar position. Also, the NYAG is overreaching their jurisdiction. I had this opinion from the beginning of the case and discussed this in the press subforum. They are very persistent, however.

Tether on 2016 is not similar to Tether on 2020. In volume, in liquidity, in market capitalization, in dependence from exchanges' orderbooks. This dependence is a problem. Tether might not be backed 100% anymore as speculated by many.

[exstasie]

So what? My point was that in mid-2016 when the hack occurred, Bitfinex represented a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity. And yet those losses didn't reverse the new bull market, even though all that liquidity wasn't replaced for the better part of a year.

That's what your entire argument about Tether is about, isn't it? That Tether represents a massive chunk of total exchange liquidity? I'm saying it still doesn't matter, not in the face of a powerful bull market like we're seeing now.

Tether on 2016 is not similar to Tether on 2020. In volume, in liquidity, in market capitalization, in dependence from exchanges' orderbooks. This dependence is a problem. Tether might not be backed 100% anymore as speculated by many.

I didn't say Tether. Indeed Tether was still very small in mid-2016 when the Bitfinex hack occurred.

I was talking about Bitfinex. In mid-2016, they were literally the biggest exchange in the world, if you ignore the volume-faking Chinese exchanges:



https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/5y?c=e&t=a

Then they were hacked for more than 1/3 of the value they held in custody. This liquidity was immediately taken from depositors and lost on the market. Yet it didn't stop the 2016-2017 bull market, did it?

How is Tether any different now?

[bbc.reporter]

I do not know. Maybe the fake volume Chinese exchanges were really behind the pump similar to the argument that the unbacked USDT issuance is presently behind this bull market.

How is Tether different now? Check the cryptospace landscape. It is a Tether world in fiat trading volume and orderbook liquidity. You reckon bull market continues if regulators freeze iFinex, Tether and Bitfinex bank accounts and orders a takedown of USDT?

[exstasie]

I do not know. Maybe the fake volume Chinese exchanges were really behind the pump similar to the argument that the unbacked USDT issuance is presently behind this bull market.

Always looking for a conspiracy theory, eh?

If anything, it's the opposite. Remember when Chinese exchanges got audited by the government and froze customer withdrawals for months, in early 2017? They turned off the fake volume algorithms and shortly afterwards the market went parabolic and entered the bubble phase. This may have been a coincidence though.

How is Tether different now? Check the cryptospace landscape. It is a Tether world in fiat trading volume and orderbook liquidity.

Tether is big, but certainly not bigger (compared to the overall market) than Bitfinex was in 2016 when there were far fewer exchanges and the overall crypto market cap was tiny compared to now. It was the single biggest Western exchange at the time.

You reckon bull market continues if regulators freeze iFinex, Tether and Bitfinex bank accounts and orders a takedown of USDT?

Yes, I think so. Like I said, there is no stopping a strong bull market. And whether Bitfinex or Tether can pay their creditors really doesn't affect Bitcoin holders; it doesn't necessarily mean they will send their coins to exchanges and dump them. And that's what needs to happen for the price to crash and for the bull market to reverse into a bear.

Furthermore, the market has historically taken favorably to "bad actors" being taken down by the US government. Silk Road, BTC-e, etc. The market bubbled after those events.

[bbc.reporter]

You mentioned fake volume Chinese exchanges. If they can fake volume, they control liquidity, they also can control the pumps.

Also, Tether is not 100% backed 1 dollar for 1 USDT anymore.

Tether's total 24 hour volume is sometimes bigger than bitcoin's 24 hour volume, however, always consistent in top 2.

Similar to the big short, it was the overconfidence of the banks that broke them. We should be more careful and stay humble.

[bbc.reporter]

I shake my head.

If there were direct dollars willing to provide liquidity for the cryptospace market, why do they need to go first through Tether and add more regulatory risk?



According to Tether’s official transparency data, the USDT market cap crossed a $17 billion mark for the first time, hitting over $17 billion in total assets.

Tether’s market cap has been growing exponentially in 2020. As of mid-September, Tether’s market cap had seen nearly a four-fold increase since the beginning of the year, surging above $15 billion from around $4 billion.

According to data from crypto analytics firm Messari, USDT saw a notable increase from August 2020 to date. As such, USDT added more than $5 billion in market cap over the past three months.

Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin in the cryptocurrency market, is seeing a massive influx in its market capitalization, which is likely fueling the current Bitcoin (BTC) price rally.

Source https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-market-cap-surpasses-17b-fueling-bitcoin-price-rally

[aesma]

Well because USDT is a crypto of course, you can send and receive it instantly, from and to accounts with little/no regulatory oversight, it's much less hassle and risk than moving USD.

What would be really interesting to know is who is buying USDT directly from Tether in exchange of cash, to the tune of billions ?

[bbc.reporter]

@aesma. I reckon the invisible men hehehehe.

In any case, news reminder. Tether, iFinex, Digifinex, Bitfinex are now in a very difficult situation. The New York supreme court has rejected their motion to dismiss the case and they need to supply the documents, bank records and accounting for Tether's issuance. Records Tether cannot or will not produce.

This supreme court decision to put them back on trial was made on July. I am not certain why there is no bitcoin news media outlet covering this.



The judges lay out initially that this appeal was absolutely meaningless from the start, and nonetheless take the time to lay out why each of Bitfinex’s arguments are invalid.

They begin (as shall I) with Tether’s argument that it is neither a security or a commodity and as such these activities surrounding Tether are not covered under the Martin Act. The judge strongly disagrees.

The first point laid out here is explaining that Bitfinex did not appeal correctly to challenge the NYAG jurisdiction, and instead in effect were trying to appeal the right of the Supreme Court to hear an application for this type of order.

The second point follows along with this one to emphasize that they did not appeal the order they appear to have a problem with.

The third point, is laying out even if they had handled this appeal correctly Tether would still be found to be covered under the Martin Act.

After settling the issue of whether Tether was neither a commodity a security they addressed the argument by Bitfinex that the New York Supreme Court lacked personal jurisdiction. In this argument Bitfinex tried to claim that there was insufficient link between their activity in New York and the alleged fraud. The judge did not find this argument convincing at all.

In conclusion, this case has been moved from the appellate court back to trial, Bitfinex and Tether must hand over the documents requested, and they are now in an extraordinarily difficult position.

Source https://bennettftomlin.com/2020/12/06/analysis-of-the-new-york-supreme-court-remittitur-in-the-tether-and-bitfinex-new-york-attorney-general-case/

[Bitcoins101]

Tether FUD? What is this, 2017?

Until I see an FBI logo across Bitfinex and Tether's websites and a press release about billions of dollars seized from their bank accounts, I'm not concerned. I don't even care whether USDT is fully backed. The market doesn't care either as long as withdrawals are operational.

Someday I'm sure the music will stop but Bitfinex and Tether have been a "ticking timebomb" for several years already. Timing their downfall is impossible and to be frank, the US government looks powerless to stop them.

Timing their downfall is impossible, so you just don't care? Why would you hold something that eventually will go down in value (even moreso than the dollar itself) when it can never go up, especially when reliable stablecoin alternatives exist?

[exstasie]

Tether FUD? What is this, 2017?

Until I see an FBI logo across Bitfinex and Tether's websites and a press release about billions of dollars seized from their bank accounts, I'm not concerned. I don't even care whether USDT is fully backed. The market doesn't care either as long as withdrawals are operational.

Someday I'm sure the music will stop but Bitfinex and Tether have been a "ticking timebomb" for several years already. Timing their downfall is impossible and to be frank, the US government looks powerless to stop them.

Timing their downfall is impossible, so you just don't care?

Uh, it's not that I don't care, just that speculating about this is a complete waste of time. Tether alarmists have been freaking out for 4+ years saying the sky is going to fall tomorrow.

I'm sure it will someday. I'm over it.

Why would you hold something that eventually will go down in value (even moreso than the dollar itself) when it can never go up, especially when reliable stablecoin alternatives exist?

I don't advocate holding Tether.

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. I disagree. Speculating about this is learning about the economics behind the cryptospace and we might have only begun to know the real story, I reckon.

Also, the movie that can be made based on the real story behind this might put the movies The Big Short and Wolf of Wall Street on a lower level hehe. Read this article. Everything appears to be planned from the very beginning.



Tether and Bitfinex are not the same corporation. Tether controls the issuance contracts for all USDT in circulation on all blockchains, but Bitfinex manages the backing assets.

If Tether dies, the keys are passed on to another LLC and life goes on.
If Bitfinex dies, Binance can then make a deal with Tether to back the network with their own basket.
If Binance dies, Bittrex can then replace them.
If Bittrex dies, OKCoin can then replace them.

So while it’s obvious the market continues to shrink and must deal with the inevitable turmoil all of those exchange closings would create… USDT very well has every chance of outliving all of them.

That’s it. Tether wins.

Source https://bryceweiner.medium.com/hopes-expectations-black-holes-and-revelations-or-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-7747cf8ea11c

[btc78]

What made me think is Tether being Stable coin , why does the value in market falls?sometimes the value even drop to $0.98 in which supposedly $1.00 .sorry but i'm ust curious why does the drop happens as being stable is the most feature of USDT.

Thank you in advance for enlightenment coz at some point i wanted my coins to transfer into this for keep safe but this hindered me to do so,that's why i wanted to know what's behind this and if this is good or bad .