Trading is based on probability.

[Lorokan]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

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[Quidat]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Of course and thats the reason why we do use up our brains to test out or do make analysis on what would be the probable things that might happen.
Trading would really have that trial and error thing and thats what makes it hard because price can go oppositely on what we do anticipate even how
good the analysis you had made. Survival on this market will always depend on how an individual would handle out risk management thing.
You wont be burned if you dont just let yourself too greedy or being tied up with your emotions. Just keep learning on the process as you go by
and lessen risk as possible.

[rexxarofmoknathal]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

[JeromeTash]

Every choice we make in life is based on probability.
For example when you set up a business. There is a probability that it may succeed or not. Everything involving making more money is about risk taking and so trading should not be any different.

What one needs to learn is risk management so that in case things don't work in their favor, they won't get their money, portfolio or investment swept off clean.

[goaldigger]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

The only way is to earn money or to lose money, the probability of winning will depend on how much you study before you trade and if you want to increase the probability of losing money then listen to any hype as easy as that. We have to be more responsible trader, don’t compete to anyone just focus on your trading plan and enjoy the profit later.

[chaser15]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

As much as possible, it's always best to find what favored us to make a profit.

But easy as it says, it's hard to do in actual. The crypto is heavily volatile. We can't just say that things should follow the way we want.

Learn from your experience. Making a stable profit in trading really takes time.

[Baofeng]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

Pretty obvious though? Isn't what we say that we can't really predict the price movement because there's a lot of possibility, lots of outcome that we can't control? And that is another reason why we don't think that there are no experts here, every prediction is based on your experience and how to interpret the trend lines.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

True, that's why trading is not really for everyone, because there are risk involved that anyone can't really mitigate and they got rekt.

[maxreish]

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
 Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.
 

 Our only goal is here is to get and acquire the probability to win, isn't?
 While I agree that understanding the risk of trading will help us to be a good trader but with a combination of real experience  to know that risk is also important. Sometimes, we tend to set some goals and limits that we hardly follow----that's called uncontrolled discipline.
 
 Anyway, majority of the traders know that different outcomes you are mentioning. And I am also aware that the probability to survive in the crypto market is also difficult to achieve.

[Vitalicus]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

The only way is to earn money or to lose money, the probability of winning will depend on how much you study before you trade and if you want to increase the probability of losing money then listen to any hype as easy as that. We have to be more responsible trader, don’t compete to anyone just focus on your trading plan and enjoy the profit later.

LOL I feel like I'm in a math class! I think most of traders don't really calculate the probability before trading. They are more likely to use their real experiences, knowledges, analyzing skills to understand the situation. Then they can decide to invest or not. There's always risks in this market, therefore, the combination of your knowledge, skills, experiences will help you avoid losing too much. In order to reduce the probability of losing when trading, you better equip yourself with those things before joining in.

[Ucy]

Interesting.
Guess that is not the same as randomness because some price movements aren't that random. The word (probability) fit the market activities though.
I think you can still predict the market fairly ok with enough skills/experience. Charts can sometimes be predictable with their zigzaggy up & down price movements... More like "if the market dips, there is high probability/chances it will go back up"

[Wind_FURY]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

"Bad events" lower your probability of success, higher probability raise it.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

What's the probability of success, if you buy Bitcoin if it enters the blue part of the rainbow? Higher.

What's the probability of success, if you buy it if it enters the red part of the rainbow? Lower.

[gabbie2010]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

A good trader will always ensures that the odd or probability is on their side coupled with good trading strategy  a high risk to reward trade put such a trader' s probability of making profits despite some losses in a positive side.
The market is unpredictable hence their different outcome in term of making profit while a newbie will stick to buying low and selling high wrt  illustrated in the chart above  obviously is a very simple method of trading which have a positive outcome.

[Zackgeno96]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yes absolutely! Trading is based on probability, just like everything else is based on probability in our day to day life. This is the sole reason that people do so much analysis of the past events in trading to look for the possible outcome of the future, if calculated inaccurately then the result becomes unprofitable for the trader.

Interesting.
Guess that is not the same as randomness because some price movements aren't that random. The word (probability) fit the market activities though.
I think you can still predict the market fairly ok with enough skills/experience. Charts can sometimes be predictable with their zigzaggy up & down price movements... More like "if the market dips, there is high probability/chances it will go back up"

But these charts are sometimes too much tempting that you think that you can easily win in that scenario but then everything goes south and you get yourself deep down shithole, that's the reason traders always do TA before taking any step.

[beerlover]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Even trading is looking like based on probability, you may control the level of probability which must be the advantage you can enjoy with trading whereas in gambling you cannot. There are lots of aspects are influencing the outcome of your trading but there are defined procedures available on how to approach/manage each of those aspects. I simply agree that results in trading is based on probability with you can gain control over your trading and you can makes things to favor you.

There cannot be multiple outcome from trading because we are having only two possible results always. This may sound like so simple but in practically it is not. But you can simply skip all the hassles at least in crypto trading unlike any other markets if you are going for long-term trading. Yes, I am one of the trader who is preferring holding way of trading which provides me guaranteed profits. My making consistent profits, I am seeing one sided probabilities with my trading if I try to explain in your way .

[AakZaki]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

Your opinion is right, about beating opportunities with trade knowledge using analytical and fundamental knowledge. Not all trades are based on opportunities that might always exist and might also be missed. As a trader, I take advantage of the opportunities available with trading knowledge that I have to maximize trading income. Retail traders who continue to lose their money only take advantage of opportunities without predicting what will happen after the opportunity is taken.

Must be a smart trader and can take advantage of every circumstance into profits.

[mersal]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

If we are completely trading based on the probability then trading will become gambling so trading is not completely based on probability but it also a factor more likely when we are a long term trader.Trading is completely based on analysis of the current market situation.

[enhu]

Every trader has their own technical analysis and the PROBABILITY of them to have a good analysis is base on their experience too but oftentimes they are doing a good analysis because indicators somehow had been made to work almost perfectly.  Traders may see the probability that the price could go up but a percentage of this probability says it may also go down.

[kceekcee]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Not everyone will want to discuss the probability involved in trading, because each trader deals with either Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis with years of expatriate and experience.

But as a trader, it is either you humble yourself before the market, or you get humbled by the market.
Choose the probability that suits you

[shield132]

People tend to get much profit in a short time and for this reason, a lot of them chooses daily trading. The problem is that you can't catch good moments daily, that's impossible. For this reason, it's better to catch the best moments that carry less risk and high profit, such moments don't happen rarely but a lot of people can't keep even a little patience.

Another problem is that they only see the past statistics of carts, not their behaviours. Traders have to analyze their mistakes and successes that happened in past, also check what happened during those times that includes not only prices of their trading subjects but also news around it and analyzing of what kind of reaction people have on specific news and why. Along with luck, power in trading is the right analyze of data and then predicting the future from past experience cause everything new is well-forgotten old.

[Zemomtum]

Trading is mainly on probability, it is either goes in your support based on your analysis or against. Life itself is mainly on probability, that someone will be alive tomorrow is speculation and not a reality so it is for out decision also