Trading is based on probability.

[Lorokan]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

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[Quidat]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Of course and thats the reason why we do use up our brains to test out or do make analysis on what would be the probable things that might happen.
Trading would really have that trial and error thing and thats what makes it hard because price can go oppositely on what we do anticipate even how
good the analysis you had made. Survival on this market will always depend on how an individual would handle out risk management thing.
You wont be burned if you dont just let yourself too greedy or being tied up with your emotions. Just keep learning on the process as you go by
and lessen risk as possible.

[rexxarofmoknathal]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

[JeromeTash]

Every choice we make in life is based on probability.
For example when you set up a business. There is a probability that it may succeed or not. Everything involving making more money is about risk taking and so trading should not be any different.

What one needs to learn is risk management so that in case things don't work in their favor, they won't get their money, portfolio or investment swept off clean.

[goaldigger]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

The only way is to earn money or to lose money, the probability of winning will depend on how much you study before you trade and if you want to increase the probability of losing money then listen to any hype as easy as that. We have to be more responsible trader, don’t compete to anyone just focus on your trading plan and enjoy the profit later.

[chaser15]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

As much as possible, it's always best to find what favored us to make a profit.

But easy as it says, it's hard to do in actual. The crypto is heavily volatile. We can't just say that things should follow the way we want.

Learn from your experience. Making a stable profit in trading really takes time.

[Baofeng]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

Pretty obvious though? Isn't what we say that we can't really predict the price movement because there's a lot of possibility, lots of outcome that we can't control? And that is another reason why we don't think that there are no experts here, every prediction is based on your experience and how to interpret the trend lines.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

True, that's why trading is not really for everyone, because there are risk involved that anyone can't really mitigate and they got rekt.

[maxreish]

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
 Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.
 

 Our only goal is here is to get and acquire the probability to win, isn't?
 While I agree that understanding the risk of trading will help us to be a good trader but with a combination of real experience  to know that risk is also important. Sometimes, we tend to set some goals and limits that we hardly follow----that's called uncontrolled discipline.
 
 Anyway, majority of the traders know that different outcomes you are mentioning. And I am also aware that the probability to survive in the crypto market is also difficult to achieve.

[Vitalicus]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

The only way is to earn money or to lose money, the probability of winning will depend on how much you study before you trade and if you want to increase the probability of losing money then listen to any hype as easy as that. We have to be more responsible trader, don’t compete to anyone just focus on your trading plan and enjoy the profit later.

LOL I feel like I'm in a math class! I think most of traders don't really calculate the probability before trading. They are more likely to use their real experiences, knowledges, analyzing skills to understand the situation. Then they can decide to invest or not. There's always risks in this market, therefore, the combination of your knowledge, skills, experiences will help you avoid losing too much. In order to reduce the probability of losing when trading, you better equip yourself with those things before joining in.

[Ucy]

Interesting.
Guess that is not the same as randomness because some price movements aren't that random. The word (probability) fit the market activities though.
I think you can still predict the market fairly ok with enough skills/experience. Charts can sometimes be predictable with their zigzaggy up & down price movements... More like "if the market dips, there is high probability/chances it will go back up"

[Wind_FURY]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

"Bad events" lower your probability of success, higher probability raise it.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

What's the probability of success, if you buy Bitcoin if it enters the blue part of the rainbow? Higher.

What's the probability of success, if you buy it if it enters the red part of the rainbow? Lower.

[gabbie2010]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

A good trader will always ensures that the odd or probability is on their side coupled with good trading strategy  a high risk to reward trade put such a trader' s probability of making profits despite some losses in a positive side.
The market is unpredictable hence their different outcome in term of making profit while a newbie will stick to buying low and selling high wrt  illustrated in the chart above  obviously is a very simple method of trading which have a positive outcome.

[Zackgeno96]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yes absolutely! Trading is based on probability, just like everything else is based on probability in our day to day life. This is the sole reason that people do so much analysis of the past events in trading to look for the possible outcome of the future, if calculated inaccurately then the result becomes unprofitable for the trader.

Interesting.
Guess that is not the same as randomness because some price movements aren't that random. The word (probability) fit the market activities though.
I think you can still predict the market fairly ok with enough skills/experience. Charts can sometimes be predictable with their zigzaggy up & down price movements... More like "if the market dips, there is high probability/chances it will go back up"

But these charts are sometimes too much tempting that you think that you can easily win in that scenario but then everything goes south and you get yourself deep down shithole, that's the reason traders always do TA before taking any step.

[beerlover]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Even trading is looking like based on probability, you may control the level of probability which must be the advantage you can enjoy with trading whereas in gambling you cannot. There are lots of aspects are influencing the outcome of your trading but there are defined procedures available on how to approach/manage each of those aspects. I simply agree that results in trading is based on probability with you can gain control over your trading and you can makes things to favor you.

There cannot be multiple outcome from trading because we are having only two possible results always. This may sound like so simple but in practically it is not. But you can simply skip all the hassles at least in crypto trading unlike any other markets if you are going for long-term trading. Yes, I am one of the trader who is preferring holding way of trading which provides me guaranteed profits. My making consistent profits, I am seeing one sided probabilities with my trading if I try to explain in your way .

[AakZaki]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

Your opinion is right, about beating opportunities with trade knowledge using analytical and fundamental knowledge. Not all trades are based on opportunities that might always exist and might also be missed. As a trader, I take advantage of the opportunities available with trading knowledge that I have to maximize trading income. Retail traders who continue to lose their money only take advantage of opportunities without predicting what will happen after the opportunity is taken.

Must be a smart trader and can take advantage of every circumstance into profits.

[mersal]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

If we are completely trading based on the probability then trading will become gambling so trading is not completely based on probability but it also a factor more likely when we are a long term trader.Trading is completely based on analysis of the current market situation.

[enhu]

Every trader has their own technical analysis and the PROBABILITY of them to have a good analysis is base on their experience too but oftentimes they are doing a good analysis because indicators somehow had been made to work almost perfectly.  Traders may see the probability that the price could go up but a percentage of this probability says it may also go down.

[kceekcee]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Not everyone will want to discuss the probability involved in trading, because each trader deals with either Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis with years of expatriate and experience.

But as a trader, it is either you humble yourself before the market, or you get humbled by the market.
Choose the probability that suits you

[shield132]

People tend to get much profit in a short time and for this reason, a lot of them chooses daily trading. The problem is that you can't catch good moments daily, that's impossible. For this reason, it's better to catch the best moments that carry less risk and high profit, such moments don't happen rarely but a lot of people can't keep even a little patience.

Another problem is that they only see the past statistics of carts, not their behaviours. Traders have to analyze their mistakes and successes that happened in past, also check what happened during those times that includes not only prices of their trading subjects but also news around it and analyzing of what kind of reaction people have on specific news and why. Along with luck, power in trading is the right analyze of data and then predicting the future from past experience cause everything new is well-forgotten old.

[Zemomtum]

Trading is mainly on probability, it is either goes in your support based on your analysis or against. Life itself is mainly on probability, that someone will be alive tomorrow is speculation and not a reality so it is for out decision also

[Ridwan Fauzi]

Indeed trading is based on probability, but you have to know to make your daily trading get profit at least you have to out come two things.

Firstly, you have to outcome the technical analyst. This is what you have to done before you have intention to entry. You will useless if you just come to the market but you haven't had an analyst it's the same as suicide.

Secondly, you have to force yourself to read everything about crypto currency news, its called as fundamental analyst, because in everyday we will find/have different information and it will make crypto currency prices change. Those two things will make your daily trading get profit and at least and reduce your probability to loss.

[josephsonand]

Certainly, the probability is one of the aspects of trade, but it is far from the only and not defining it as such. Fundamental analysis is very important in trading, and thanks to it, a trader can increase the likelihood of success of his transaction.

[Wayrey2020]

Certainly, the probability is one of the aspects of trade, but it is far from the only and not defining it as such. Fundamental analysis is very important in trading, and thanks to it, a trader can increase the likelihood of success of his transaction.

Yes i agree with you, a trade can increase his chances of success in trade transactions if he conducts and maintains to perfection the execution of his strategy and also come to the understanding that its a win/lose situation when you trade; because thats what probability is about

[el kaka22]

What else is NOT based on probability? I do not think anything existing in such a way for sure-shot results.
All money making opportunities are having equal chances both profits and losses hence the results are depending on the skills of individuals. Probability should not be misinterpreted like capability of our skill set. You and your opponent are having same level of probability to crack profits from trading and who makes decision  based on analysis may win at the end of the day. Fortunately in trading we are not directly competing against our opponent in direct manner .

Like many people have noticed even gambling is also based on probability but trading is giving you chances to make use of your knowledge and skills to maximize your chances for winning. Probability is just a fair thing in trading hence we should not get confused about it.

[Yamifoud]

Probability? We all have that winning and losing results.
Do we always think that we have a high probability of winning than losing? Maybe it is depending on our capability and yet, we always started with low chances of winning, and it eventually increase if we have work on it.

But I don't think we need to think about it...traders will make their way to have a better result and for sure, people who come into trading wanting to gain and that it makes them think positive than of being brag from negativity outside.

[bitgolden]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

There is really no doubt about this. Trading is under probability, there is really no guarantee that you're going to be making the right prediction. There are lots of people that have tried to predict the next price move of cryptocurrency and after several tries and they were still unable to predict what it's going to be. Some of them get pissed and decide to quit.

It is not that these people are not good, they are good and majority of them I know are experts that has been in a similar field for years, but they were still unable to predict Bitcoin for once. You can't really predict it, you just do the analysis to know what's likely to happen next. There are a lot of limitations in trading and we need to work hard within those limitations. If you see probability as one of limitation then you need to get practiced to it; no other go.

[whyrqa]

I think that relying only on probability theory in cryptocurrency trading is not worth it, since even a trader who does not have enough back trades and makes deals in an arbitrary direction does not always receive at least profit and loss in equal proportions, i.e. 50 to 50. even such indicators are very difficult to achieve. if a trader wants to get not even a good profit, but at least some income, then each trader should tip the scales of probability in his direction, and without technical analysis it is almost impossible to do. otherwise, such a trade will be similar to a game of chance, when the trader will rely only on chance.

[adzino]

I think every event on this whole universe depends on probability. An event that must occur or bound to happen has a probability of 1.  Similarly, trading also depends on this probability. The probability of the price to rise or fall depends on different events that have direct impact on the crypto currencies. The portability of the price to increase rises as long as the event favors the market. The opposite is also true!

[bitbunnny]

That is not quite correct. Probability makes big part of trading but it's not based on it, at least not exclusivley.
Knowledge, experience and skill also matters ao I would say it's mix of all of this in certain proportions.
Positive attitude and a little bit of luck are also important so to my opinion trading is a very complex discipline and thus not propriate for all people.
If you base trading only on different theories in practice that will not end well, beleive me.

[Lorence.xD]

That is not quite correct. Probability makes big part of trading but it's not based on it, at least not exclusivley.
Knowledge, experience and skill also matters ao I would say it's mix of all of this in certain proportions.
Positive attitude and a little bit of luck are also important so to my opinion trading is a very complex discipline and thus not propriate for all people.
If you base trading only on different theories in practice that will not end well, beleive me.

That is my thought too, if you are putting a narrow perspective, you will not see the bigger picture. I really think that the probability factor is just a side track for what trading really is, in my opinion, trading is more of an analysis rather than probability which means that it is focuses more on skills rather than chances. Conventional thinking and perspective in trading makes it difficult to grow and become successful. Always remember that trading is not the same as gambling which focuses more on chances rather than skill.

[Oasisman]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

In the world of uncertainty, probability is the most generic term that we can use to identify such chances of the outcome that we're looking for, and trading isn't an exemption. But, you can do something about it, by studying the market movements and speculate on a more specific analysis that shows reliable data. One example is TA's. Though the 50/50 probability is still there, but at least you have a speculations that made sense, rather than speculating a figure out of thin air.

[Latviand]

Certainly, the probability is one of the aspects of trade, but it is far from the only and not defining it as such. Fundamental analysis is very important in trading, and thanks to it, a trader can increase the likelihood of success of his transaction.

In trading, the results of your trading are between earning and losing your money. The probability in trading can be controlled once you perform technical analysis in the market and making some speculations that you can use to manage your assets. By that, you can make strategies based on your predictions depending on the factors that can affect your asset's price in the market. A trader should know how to manage the risks in trading, there are factors who can help you such as risk management, that is the time where you can minimize your risk and become more comfortable in trading. Every transaction is important and every mistake is a lesson so never underestimate no matter how big or small your trading is.

[Janation]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

People think this is easy, it is not that easy.

With the volatility of cryptocurrencies, it is actually hard to find the timing to reduce the loss or have a profit. Will it continue to fall? Will it pump? Usually, you follow what you feel right but there are times that you based it on the experiences you did in the past that usually went wrong and went great, and it is still doesn't give good results every time.

[htsy585]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

I can't agree more. This is possibly the case of every market driven by the force of demand and supply. To be honest, Trading is not as easy as it seems or how people do write about it... It is more complicated than that as the market is being driven by many factors. Studying the chart and working out analysis can only take you so far in trading. It is advisable you trade with a spare money or amount you can afford to lose because the market is highly volatile and it can go against anybody

[deisik]

People tend to get much profit in a short time and for this reason, a lot of them chooses daily trading. The problem is that you can't catch good moments daily, that's impossible. For this reason, it's better to catch the best moments that carry less risk and high profit, such moments don't happen rarely but a lot of people can't keep even a little patience

Well, there is another opinion

According to which you can only earn good money by letting your profits grow. I can't say I fully agree with this view (personally, I opt for short term-trading coupled with long-term holding, with a lot of stuff in between), but if we look at the timeframes longer than a few months, it makes sense. You would be able to take home mighty profits if you waited for major price movements and stopped looking for earning dust here and there, i.e. trying to catch every price reversal

[btccoffee]

Yes it is as long as we do a risk management and we invest only on what we can afford to lose since we still dont know what will gonna happen in the future. In trading mostly history repeat itself after a few months or years so we just have to be patient.

[KrisAlex18]

Trading is so risky because no one can predict the price of the bitcoin, it could change time by time, so there is really no person who can win in trading continuously so absolutely it's just a probability. There are many ways that we can use to lessen the probability of losing your money in trading, there are many websites or videos that would help you to understand more about trading, just focus on how ate you going to trade well, you have your resources to learn just use it to become a better trader. You'll lose if you are a beginner in trading, so do not try it because it's really risky just focus on how are you going to learn first before trying.

Every choice we make in life is based on probability.
For example when you set up a business. There is a probability that it may succeed or not. Everything involving making more money is about risk taking and so trading should not be any different.

Very well said, our life is full of probability, our life is full of decisions, so we can really not say our future. You have to be good at choosing the right one so it will lead you to the right path.

[tvplus006]

Indeed trading is based on probability, but you have to know to make your daily trading get profit at least you have to out come two things.

Firstly, you have to outcome the technical analyst. This is what you have to done before you have intention to entry. You will useless if you just come to the market but you haven't had an analyst it's the same as suicide.

Secondly, you have to force yourself to read everything about crypto currency news, its called as fundamental analyst, because in everyday we will find/have different information and it will make crypto currency prices change. Those two things will make your daily trading get profit and at least and reduce your probability to loss.

I consider the ratio between profit and loss that I can get to be a very important factor when making a decision. There is no point in opening a trade if you can get a profit of $100 on it, but if the price goes against you, you will get a loss of $1000.

[FanEagle]

I totally agree, I have seen a million charts in the crypto world where people all claimed that they know what they are talking about and they show a chart as a proof that the price will go up or down and say that "Price will do X and here is my proof, you have to believe me because I have a proof!!" and one topic under him there is another dude saying the same exact thing just the opposite...

I mean lets be honest with each other, chart reading, indicators, TA all are a bs if you are unlucky, yeah sure they could show you something but bitcoin is not regulated and people could sell or buy bitcoin out of nowhere. It could look like everything shows a bear run on bitcoin and some super rich company could come up and buy 500 million dollar worth of bitcoins all at once and destroy all your logic and charts and TA that you did.

[rathaha10]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

You are right,  the whole concept behind trading is more like predicting and that's why a lot of people do debate is there's really a difference between betting and trading of digital assets because the two have to do with probability and prediction which you have to expect different outcomes. Analysing the market can work to certain extent but dur to the fact that the market is controlled by demand and supply,  trades can always go otherwise

[htsy585]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

I agree with you point but even but nonetheless, i believe every traders knows about how even technical analysis from veteran traders do end up going to south and entirely different from what they predicted. Using the market statistics and data from the charts can only take you so far but then you have to follow some blind faith often atimes and that is the risky aspect of digital assets trading

[Darktongue]

We shouldn't depend on probable outcomes. Either put your whole time in trade to understand everything or be a big investor for this, you should be quite lucky. You know that any single top coin never dumps loneliness so a pair of prices move slowly. You can earn from it, between a few different price rates. Select any top coin and earn it easily.

[iv4n]

We shouldn't depend on probable outcomes. Either put your whole time in trade to understand everything or be a big investor for this, you should be quite lucky. You know that any single top coin never dumps loneliness so a pair of prices move slowly. You can earn from it, between a few different price rates. Select any top coin and earn it easily.

When you use "lucky" than it's all about probabilities, you can be lucky or unlucky! And in trading you can't run away from unexpected turns that market makes, at least not every time. When it's based on that it's advisable to have some backup plan, like what you are going to do if price makes a turn and go down instead going up as you wanted! It's why I always say how important is to choose a right coin to trade with, you can't believe that every coin will recover after dump, that can do just some coins.
Ripple and eos are top coins (in top 10), I never traded with ripple and eos, and I don't ever plan to do that! This is an example of course, not every top coin is a good coin!

[deisik]

I never traded with ripple and eos, and I don't ever plan to do that! This is an example of course, not every top coin is a good coin!

That largely depends on your personal preferences

For example, it is unlikely I will ever have anything to do with Ripple because it is essentially a private currency issued by a private entity (Ripple Labs), with the implication being that once the government cracks down on them for real, you can kiss your money goodbye. On the other hand, EOS seems to be a real deal, which is at least worth looking into. I don't know how you can discard it for the sole reason "not every top coin is a good coin"

[jcpone]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

I do agreed that trading is based on probability, because if not no one can able to get profit for sure on it.
But since it is one of the opportunity many of the community who get involved themselves into cryptocurrency
got their chances to earn a lot though sometime and most of the time they faced risk on it also.

[MCobian]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

[Blue_oxen]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

Agree! I like the way you said: "without analyzing we trade like gambling". It's so true guys, traders should know they are investing not gambling. Investing without knowledge is gambling, therefore, learn the difference! Instead of spending time seeking for trading signal groups, bots, tricks, you should spend time to learn the fundamental knowledge and skills. That helps you in the long run!

[imstillthebest]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

Agree! I like the way you said: "without analyzing we trade like gambling". It's so true guys, traders should know they are investing not gambling. Investing without knowledge is gambling, therefore, learn the difference! Instead of spending time seeking for trading signal groups, bots, tricks, you should spend time to learn the fundamental knowledge and skills. That helps you in the long run!

with or without analysis , trading will still be like gambling because analysis can sometimes fail you . trading is also different from investing  (that is why its already called trading lol )  . gambling is also different but both investing and trading have the characteristic of what you experience when you play gambling . bots , tips and tricks , and others that you mentioned above are also useful to help your trades .  so its not that bad if you seek for them aside of building a skill and knowledge on trading

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

I don't totally agree with your reasoning as not on all occasion this can be observed exactly, but understandable while you could have done everything humanly possible to analyze the market, it can still turnout to be unprofitable as commonly especially in the market scenario that negative event or news causes Fud among the community like the previous that involving the US government (president Donald Trump) publicly coming out to discredit bitcoin as a currency that had an impact on the market dumping the price heavily.

Apart from cases like this (as explained above), we can testify to the market been easily predicted by professional traders using technical analysis. The probability is present in the market but doesn't apply in all situation.

[Dr.Osh]

that's because most of the traders aim to get profits quickly. however, now there are very many traders who avoid such things by having popular coins. without even doing extensive research, we know that such coins are safe enough to hold in the long run. because popular coins have the highest possibility.

[Coin_trader]

that's because most of the traders aim to get profits quickly. however, now there are very many traders who avoid such things by having popular coins. without even doing extensive research, we know that such coins are safe enough to hold in the long run. because popular coins have the highest possibility.

Highest possibility of what? Profit? The only benefits that I saw on investing in famous coin like ETH and XRP are you can guarantee enough liquidity and stability of the project. But in terms of profitability I believe you can't have the most profit by investing on that coin unless you do leverage trading but if you do casual trading like buying>holding >selling without leverage then I believe investing on startup project with a good objective can give you the highest profit.

[maydna]

I do agreed that trading is based on probability, because if not no one can able to get profit for sure on it.
But since it is one of the opportunity many of the community who get involved themselves into cryptocurrency
got their chances to earn a lot though sometime and most of the time they faced risk on it also.

To make a profit from trading, we need to have skills by learning the trading lesson from many sources. The more lesson we can learn, the higher chances for us to make a profit, so you always need to learn more about trading. If you can improve your skills by reading and practice the lesson, you will have the opportunity to increase the probability so that it will increase the chance to make a profit too. You do not need to worry if your probability is not higher because if you can analyze the market movements, you will found that there is a little sign for you to trade and make a profit even for a small profit.

[carter34]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

It can be sudden in out eyes but it has already been programmed to happen and if our analysis is good, then we will see it. Trading though is a probable chance but with good analysis, we can see where the probability will fall to. Trading or movement don't just take a good analysis by surprise most times.

[AniviaBtc]

Every choice we make in life is based on probability.
For example when you set up a business. There is a probability that it may succeed or not. Everything involving making more money is about risk taking and so trading should not be any different.

What one needs to learn is risk management so that in case things don't work in their favor, they won't get their money, portfolio or investment swept off clean.

The only certain and permanent thing here in the world is "change".

Probability depends on the decisions that you've made and the factors that can affect to it. Just like in trading, you need to become prepared and strategic in making your decisions and actions, you need basis, and that basis is the market. You need to consider the probability because that includes risk in trading.

The results of your trading is never that safe depending on how you predict the market. Risk management is right, every one needs to understand and learn that to have a more safety trading transactions. Keeping yourself in track will surely let you have a spare amount of assets during losses.

[Kasabus]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

It can be sudden in out eyes but it has already been programmed to happen and if our analysis is good, then we will see it. Trading though is a probable chance but with good analysis, we can see where the probability will fall to. Trading or movement don't just take a good analysis by surprise most times.

Trading with good analysis will most likely to end up successfully compared to gambling which we can't predict its probability. Trading is based on probability of course because we worked for it with our own special strategies and developed skills so it can be done with our expected probability.

[Joyawan13]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

It can be sudden in out eyes but it has already been programmed to happen and if our analysis is good, then we will see it. Trading though is a probable chance but with good analysis, we can see where the probability will fall to. Trading or movement don't just take a good analysis by surprise most times.

Trading with good analysis will most likely to end up successfully compared to gambling which we can't predict its probability. Trading is based on probability of course because we worked for it with our own special strategies and developed skills so it can be done with our expected probability.

yes, because of course trading and gambling strategies for me really have a different way, and every trader must have an analysis strategy in every trader to be able to produce maximum profits, so the probability of trading analysis strategy is very important for every trader who wants to get the maximum profit of course.

[Mpamaegbu]

Well, by extension, everything about life is based on probability because no one actually knows what tomorrow holds. If anyone can clearly tell the future, then that person holds a supernatural power and won't be living on guesses and probability. Trading is business and business is life. So, it isn't farfetched to say traders indulge probability and guess work while trading. There is no certainty to it. However, to navigate that mucky waters of probability, most traders rely on Technical Analysis (TA) as a compass, which is preferable to news for me. And to that end I say, yes, trading is probability.

[rodskee]

We must attempt to maintain adequate capital during losses With less capital the danger is higher and therefore the amount of risk can't be reduced so as to trade you would like to plan accordingly. Trading doesn't depend upon knowledge and knowledge The market must be understood before the transaction and risk management must be properly determined Business usually depends on the market.

Money management matters in this kind of industry if you are into trading business you need to analyze the market very well,
the more deeper you understand the higher chance of surviving.
It's your good judgement and assessment that will allow you to compensate from this business, as the this industries depends
from how traders and investors reacts from every situations.

Well, by extension, everything about life is based on probability because no one actually knows what tomorrow holds. If anyone can clearly tell the future, then that person holds a supernatural power and won't be living on guesses and probability. Trading is business and business is life. So, it isn't farfetched to say traders indulge probability and guess work while trading. There is no certainty to it. However, to navigate that mucky waters of probability, most traders rely on Technical Analysis (TA) as a compass, which is preferable to news for me. And to that end I say, yes, trading is probability.

Good point, no one knows what market will bring but having good understanding gives you higher chances to anticipate what will
be the next market trends, you can position your investment and wait for the execution.

[Lorokan]

I agree with trading based on probability, therefore we must always conduct market analysis on a regular basis. The more often we do
analysis, the success rate is also higher. Without analyzing we trade like gambling, because trading is on probability then the movement
can go up or down suddenly.

It can be sudden in out eyes but it has already been programmed to happen and if our analysis is good, then we will see it. Trading though is a probable chance but with good analysis, we can see where the probability will fall to. Trading or movement don't just take a good analysis by surprise most times.

I want to say that most times trade charts and price movements are not programmed to happen; but instead it can be set up to happenl; by conjuring couple of catalyst to the market which can be a bad news, a disagreement or even sec news which destabilize traders emotion and force the weak hands to dump so the strong can take advantage.

Irrespective of the price movement, or inability to predict correctly always, becoming a good analysis always help.

[Vitalicus]

I want to say that most times trade charts and price movements are not programmed to happen; but instead it can be set up to happenl; by conjuring couple of catalyst to the market which can be a bad news, a disagreement or even sec news which destabilize traders emotion and force the weak hands to dump so the strong can take advantage.

Irrespective of the price movement, or inability to predict correctly always, becoming a good analysis always help.

Agree! The coins value particularly and the market can't be programmed to change. However, it can be manipulated by the effects of external factors. For example, people who wanna change a coins value will push information about it on social media platforms. Whales can do panic and huge sell or buy in minutes to increase the trading volume and then dump the coins.. etc. A lot of ways to influence a coins value by influencing external factors. Therefore, it's good to know for your own benefit!

[ololajulo]

Have not seen a perfect market trader that predicts right every time especially if he predicts regularly, at least monthly. So it is base on probability. Those who are inside are careful with information they dont divulge at all. The technical analysis are good but not the best tool to make decision for short term. For whatever tool adopted for decision, long term projection for good project is the best.

[TheGreatPython]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yes it’s based on probability. Experts don’t just make predictions on where the price will be heading up next, they also predict level where the price may likely drop to if it doesn’t go up. So, it’s based on probability just like you have said. Those who read the charts after they read it, they predict where it might reach if it moved up and then they will invest. That’s why making use of stop loss is very important because you don’t know where it’s heading to. After you have done the math and started trading, you then set the stop loss where it’s meant to stop at, so you don’t lose your money.

Trading is based on probability and permutation and due to this reason we are able to apply mathematical formula into it to predict its future. If trading is not at all based any of mathematical thing, then we cannot get into any strategies to analyze it. I mean being based on probability is not a week point of trading. It is a hidden advantage for the people who want to make use of technical analysis.

Technical analysis helps people to foresee the market movements but it will not get us 100$ accurate things because the basic oscillation of market is probability based which means on what direction most traders are riding, market will move on that direction.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

This isn't just subjected to trading as everything in this world is based on probability. There's no 100 percentage of the outcome coming out as you predicted even though you employed all the techniques, experience money can offer. Traders have to be mentality capable of accepting whatever outcome their trade produce and this isn't only address at losses since some traders out of over excitement of massive profit do some regrettably things like reinvesting into same trade hoping to replicate similar outcome.

Although probability is what trades are all about but still, experience and having the right tools and information plays a very important role in contributing to making the probability of a trade work in your favor, that's what makes you a professional trader.

[rexxarofmoknathal]

Have not seen a perfect market trader that predicts right every time especially if he predicts regularly, at least monthly. So it is base on probability. Those who are inside are careful with information they dont divulge at all. The technical analysis are good but not the best tool to make decision for short term. For whatever tool adopted for decision, long term projection for good project is the best.

It is true, at least the way I see it that trading is almost the same as probability and odds. And that's because no. matter how in depth your analysis might be you can never be 100% certain you'll get your profit. What you can always do and should aim as a trader is minimise the risk of loss. Only then you can start thinking about the risk window you can allow to give yourself because prices change so quickly that sometimes even the analysis from a few minute ago can no longer apply to the market.

[Renampun]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

[deisik]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win

That's probably not what OP means

As I got it, he seems to refer to the random nature of trading as it reveals itself in price action and our reaction in the form of trading choices and decisions. So it is not so much about the probability for something to go wrong (as in "everything about life is based on probability because no one actually knows what tomorrow holds") but rather about this random nature of concrete price movements. It is not that they are random on their own, but they are effectively random for us and our decision-making machinery

[thesmallgod]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

It is still probability. It is just like someone that says he knows that is what the outcome of result will be after match ended. There are repeating pattern but you cannot be sure maybe the pattern will repeat itself so you look for the best scenario which is what the op is saying. Event influence price as well but you should also know that events sometimes might go anyway. Such is the case of the halving that just past

[Ryker1]

Well, on my mind own, trading that based on high probability is a very crucial step when you are in trading. There is no guarantee to make a profit, it is a sort of win or not that you are willing to risk. Perhaps a high percentage that maybe you are losing even how pro you are in trading. The market price movement will remain an unpredictable way. Perhaps we think that trading and gambling are the same things that we based on our luck.
Indeed, you are wrong, you can provide indicators and make your own analysis while predicting the market movement.

[bitgolden]

Trading is based on probability and permutation and due to this reason we are able to apply mathematical formula into it to predict its future. If trading is not at all based any of mathematical thing, then we cannot get into any strategies to analyze it. I mean being based on probability is not a week point of trading. It is a hidden advantage for the people who want to make use of technical analysis.

Technical analysis helps people to foresee the market movements but it will not get us 100$ accurate things because the basic oscillation of market is probability based which means on what direction most traders are riding, market will move on that direction.

Well, not everything in life is 100% probability, there are things that are certain in life. However when it comes to trading, of course probability will play a role, what did people think? Did anyone really considers that there is a way that trading could be predicted? It could do the same things over and over again? It would have a pattern that allowed everyone to move ahead?

If trading wasn't probability and if it was something certain I can tell you that we would basically all be doing that thing and would make a profit every single day, who wouldn't do something that would make you rich? I do not know any single person who wouldn't do that. It means it is all probability and "probably" it will fail, not all the time obviously since we also make a profit as well, but it will fail time to time.

[spike420211]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

[Oceat]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

I do agree with you and yes, in general, the more successful transactions determines how the traders pave its way. But, don't forget that before he attain that level he had suffered more losses before and that proves that there's no 100% certainty in life. This is just a hard work pays off at the end of the day.

Newbies basically have a small percentage of gaining profit or probably down to zero since they don't have experience in trading yet. The more you have a successful transactions in trading the more you gain an experience that you can use in the future.

[nelson4lov]

In addition to what users have said on the thread, I'd like to chip in a thing or two.

You might think that trading results and performance is actually based on probability. But you've to understand that a lot goes into it. You certainly can't compared a beginning trader (even though they've a false positive steak) with a trader who has plenty years of experience and a wealth of trading knowledge up their sleeves. That increases the odds to a great percentage. In life, everything doesn't always go as planned (the exact reason why there's a plan B or more). Experienced traders understand this and then use their knowledge to increase their chances to win each trade.

[htsy585]

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

You are right, probability will always come into crypto trading because a lot of factor are responsible for crypto price movement which guide the output of trading yields. It is quite understandable that the force of demand and supply as well contributes greatly to crypto price movement but a lot of other unforeseen factors contributes to the force of demand and supply that's why every trader at some point have to the some probability work

[suzanne5223]

Newbies basically have a small percentage of gaining profit or probably down to zero since they don't have experience in trading yet.

Agreed that newbies have few chance of making profit in trading particularly in this current market which some experienced traders make loss sometime.

The more you have a successful transactions in trading the more you gain an experience that you can use in the future.

No, because the last time i checked people learn through mistakes and there no way a trader will improve more than his previous experience if he didn't make a mistake that leads to his loss.
Successful trade is not the venue to gain experience.

[Twentyonepaylots]

In general, yes. Success of a trader determines the number of successful transactions.

Seeing a lot of successful trade of a trader does not define probability in any direction. Literally we can't set a probability on that one.

Each transaction is based on a specific set of data by which the trader can guess where the trend will go.
However, data is always not enough to have 100% probability, so often traders face losses that minimize through the use of stop loss.

This isn't the probability that you define above. Yes, there is a probability of a trade, it's always 1/2 just like a true of false question, will I win this trade? win or lose. The probability is way farther, let's just call it prediction, all of us predict the prices coz there's no way that any one of us really knows where the next price is going and that's how the market get its value. But these days?  I think what we need to do to be able to win a trade is to catch a luck, market is too wild and volatile especially in futures trading, I always lose at it.

[pawanjain]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

A coin has two sides. When you flip it there is 50% probability for it to land on the side you were wishing for.
Similarly when you trade there is a certain % of probability that you will make profits.
It doesn't always have to go as you wanted. Things do turn up to go the other way around.

But there are many factors which we can analyse and make our prediction which will help us to get the near accurate prediction.
Though the rest is based on probability there are factors which can help us improve our probability of getting profits and that is what a real trader does.

[reliable]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

[Freddy11]

Trading is indeed a great business but in order to get real profits from it, we need to work hard with planning. I find it super easy through FreshForex broker, where they help a lot having low spreads, high leverage, bonuses and various such stuff. I love their Rebate Program the most to help me trade smoothly.

[BitcoinTurk]

Trading, of course, depends on some possibilities. But we should not forget that trading is based on knowledge and experience more than possibilities. In fact, it can be evaluated both as an experience and as a special talent in estimating these possibilities we mentioned while trading. For this reason, I think it would be better to claim that both are actually connected, instead of claiming that trade depends on possibilities and possibilities. It is also necessary to anticipate these possibilities in order to trade well and successfully, in which case it requires experience.

[Nellayar]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

Aside from that, you must have the ability to hear gossips/signals. I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market. Yes, sometimes the market is your friend but many times it is your enemy. If we want an easy money, gambling is the best way to make it. Easy yet risky. But if we want an investment assurance, we should learn how to trade using our own analysis.

[deisik]

I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market

It doesn't really matter

Beyond a slightest shadow of doubt, we can, at least theoretically, trace every price movement to some driving force or factor behind it. And so what? If you don't know what's pushing the price, your trading will be probabilistic, pretty much in the same way as coin tossing. Indeed, you can come up with some ideas about the factors currently at play, but if they are wrong, you will still be guessing the next price action (read, gambling)

[RealMalatesta]

There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing. Of course, most of the time it wouldn't work but the good ones actually claim that they are not risking anything when they are doing a trade and looking at their trade success I think that is understandable.

If you are amazing at TA and you know trading like back of your hand and you have done this a lot of times, I agree that you would probably not be risking anything and you would remove that probability and make it a guarantee for you. Sure there are few times even the most known traders end up losing money but let's be honest, if they are super rich whales who have a ton of money that came from nothing and made it with trading, they probably know better than we do and not risking it.

[chip1994]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Actually trading is no different from gamble. all are predictions and all are probabilities. Therefore, pro traders often remind newbie that they need to learn how to manage capital and trading psychology firmly when working. Indicators can only help us increase the probability of winning a little, but if there is no experience in taking profit or set stoploss, our account will soon run out of money.
Trading is a very difficult job and takes a lot of time and effort to gain experience in financial markets.

[Kopetunto]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

now has entered the bullrun, I hope traders do not join Rekt, because if you sell it cheap then you can regret it, according to history after halving Bitcoin shows good performance

[tbterryboy]

traders who have higher knowledge and experience will certainly be able to make better predictions even though we are aware of the cryptocurrency market this is not easy to predict

Not easy only for naive traders because there are traders who do trade smartly regardless of their knowledge and experience because simply cryptocurrency markets are known for profitable if you opt for long-term based trading.

I mean the probability for making profits and losses are same regardless of market is volatile or stable but how you are making use of your strategy matters at the end of the day to decide your profit levels. So, not only experienced and highly skilled traders alone making profits in cryptocurrency markets but if you're good enough to ride on trends then you can make use of volatile of cryptocurrency market as probability for anything is same here.

There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing.

Making use of historical thing is a common one even for technical analyst. Because, in order to make the right decision against probability you must need to make decisions which might be true only for short-term and in long duration it must be against the trend. If you're making use of statistical analysis then you can simply tackle this kind of situation.

[Idrix1]

I can't agree more and that's why some people often do find similarities between trading and gambling as the both involves speculating future outcomes. In trading, a lot of things contributes greatly to price movement and you can't have all of them in check by analysing just chart and that's where luck and taking few leaps of faith comes in

[wozzek23]

I can't agree more and that's why some people often do find similarities between trading and gambling as the both involves speculating future outcomes. In trading, a lot of things contributes greatly to price movement and you can't have all of them in check by analysing just chart and that's where luck and taking few leaps of faith comes in

People trading with price might be comparable to gambling but someone who trades asset and invests can't even come close to a gambler because there is a reason why Warren Buffet is among the richest and why no gambler has ever made history by winning consistently. You might hit a lottery and break into news but slowly you will loose it all in the long term while in trading you got to make losses and slowly recover it.

Yes people who trade on bitcoin prices blindly and only want to buy and sell all day you might say they are dependent on their luck and probability since they need the market to move in their favor and that is totally based on luck. In fact a few gambling websites allow you to predict the price in next 10 mins and if you predict correct, you win!

[concept2]

I do agree with you. Trading nowadays is totally one of the hardest things to do since there are too many probabilities and outcome. Many traders and investors, as well as newbies, are in the same places in which create a huge number of variables on the market. And therefore, we can not predict anything 100% precisely. Therefore, you have to accept the risk and understand your responsibilities for every trades. If you want to success in trading, you need to become consistency and fearless but also dont become too reckless or staying in euphoria

Risk involves in any trade. If you cant accept the risk, you cant become a pro trader, and soon, market will take away all of your money.
Beware

[Shasha80]

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

[Hippocrypto]

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Predictions has no accurate results with respect to actual outcome of trading, so in order to survive while market is on red days we must be patient towards holding important tokens. Never give up while the value hasn't reached a profitable figures. Challenges always made us stronger and braver because someday we'll get rewarded once demand will saturate and provide good impact on our holdings.

[deisik]

There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing. Of course, most of the time it wouldn't work but the good ones actually claim that they are not risking anything when they are doing a trade and looking at their trade success I think that is understandable

There are many ways to do this in practice

And no, TA is definitely not one of them. Those claiming to be "amazing at TA" are likely selling snake oil. TA can probably help you to some degree, but not in the way you describe it, like making it a "statistical thing" (not sure what you mean by that and how it is different from not "letting things to be a probability")

With that said, you can in fact make trades close to being 100% profitable (is that what you mean?), e.g. when you have valuable and relevant info that other traders don't or don't have early access to. If you are an insider or an arbitrageur who can milk the market in this way (essentially by front-running), that's pretty much it

[coinfinger]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

That doesn't mean that gamblers don't do analysis because I was reading an article and experienced gamblers also work similar to traders as they compare the data and odds and which value offers more value and trading is also about making value decisions no matter if they are wrong or right in long term value decisions will bring you the success. I see a lot of guys analyse so much before even betting to a UFC fight which can be over in a single punch but guys analyse that too deeply.

Although all that been true gambling is inferior to trading because gambling always carries an edge and your analysis and value decisions are cut through by that edge and that is why sports edge is operated at around 10-15% house edge while casinos like dice games operate at 1% edge because no analysis can be done there.

[ScamViruS]

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Technical analysis will give you an idea of ​​where the market is headed but it is not always perfect. To be a good trader, you need to increase your trading knowledge in all fields. You cannot be a good trader just by relying on technical analysis. I would say try to do fundamental analysis with Technical before trading, because many times the market is fundamentally stronger than Technical. So try to trade on the side where the market is strong. As a result of the practice, traders gain more experience which is more effective in their future.

[Mahanton]

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Technical analysis will give you an idea of ​​where the market is headed but it is not always perfect. To be a good trader, you need to increase your trading knowledge in all fields. You cannot be a good trader just by relying on technical analysis. I would say try to do fundamental analysis with Technical before trading, because many times the market is fundamentally stronger than Technical. So try to trade on the side where the market is strong. As a result of the practice, traders gain more experience which is more effective in their future.

It would be good if you do know both fields because not all the times we do able to grasp on some fundamental aspects yet news wouldnt just pop out from time to time which means we dont have
any other ways to analyze the market but through technicals but when time that news do pops out then better make use of the two and analyze which one would be a better move to make
basing out into those analysis you had made of.Trading is ofcourse do talk about probability since we are just either aiming neither the price would go up or down on the specific point
that we do target on.

[spike420211]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

In my opinion, trading can and should be compared with gambling, especially at the beginning of the journey. Indeed, in trading, there is fully an element of excitement.
Although the essence is different, but you are always captivated by probabilities.

Very often, the market directly pushes you into a seemingly easy bargain, and from this imaginary lightness a feeling of omnipotence is created, which means that your immunity to risk management increases.

[CarnagexD]

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

Aside from that, you must have the ability to hear gossips/signals. I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market. Yes, sometimes the market is your friend but many times it is your enemy. If we want an easy money, gambling is the best way to make it. Easy yet risky. But if we want an investment assurance, we should learn how to trade using our own analysis.

Market is your enemy because trading is risky than you think. You are the only one who can fight that back, you are the only one who can manage those risks so that you minimize your losses in every transactions that you do. Probability is more on possibilities, but it is more on your own manipulation and control in your assets. Technical analysis will keep you updated about the price of your assets in the market. So I don't believe in luck in trading, I believe in how you deal with those transactions that you are going to perform, if you are prepared or not. Being flexible and complex about your strategies and decisions is also good to become more effective in trading without even thinking of those probabilities that some are saying. It is about skills and strategies, and good decision making, not probabilities.

[Assface16678]

If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade. Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

[Emitdama]

In my opinion, trading can and should be compared with gambling, especially at the beginning of the journey. Indeed, in trading, there is fully an element of excitement.

Being excited doesn't mean it resembles with gambling, because even watching a movie has excitement element so that doesn't mean watching movies and gambling are same.

I agree that there is an element of risk in both trading and gambling but trading is controlled by you, I mean you can buy asset today and you can sell it off tomorrow if you see the market is going unfavorable to you but in gambling you are firstly pushing your luck against a constant negative edge known as house edge and secondly you cannot make decisions, the results are generated immediately so no way you can manage your loss.

Trading in indeed based on probability but that at the same time you are the one who can analyse market and make the best trades while gambling you can't do any analysis unless it is sports betting which comes with a 15-20% house edge.

[bearexin]

If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade.

Do you mean one should learn intensely before getting into trading? But the market might be saturated if you waited too long as you can already see that the profits in BTC day trading that existed an year ago don't exist now and similarly the altcoin market turned shit in no time as more and more people swarmed in.

Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

I don't think anyone would loose all their money with a single trade because no matter how poor of a choice you make with trading, you are not expected to buy/sell a limited amount like say you do the trade with 1% of your capital so the worst case possibility is you will only have the 1% loss and not really you can expect a 100% loss on the trade.

[matchi2011]

If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade.

It takes time and lots of patience before you'll achieved the success that you are aiming, there are lots of things to
consider in order to be a  successful trader.

Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

Most of the time, making a small mistake brings you to a huge losses, it's really needed to have deeper understanding
before you jumped in and deal with this venue of business. But, the good catch here, if you managed to learn everything
the success will be sweet.

[perfect999]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yeah that’s correct. But some people don’t know about this. Experts say that the probability of us making a successful trade in trading is between 40% to 60%. It all goes down to different timing, and the condition of the market when you’re trading.

As long as you utilize the opportunity you have with that 40% to 60%, you will make big profit. That’s why you shouldn’t all the time, you should be able to figure when it’s the right time to trade. There’s possibly two sides to every thing, and when you can tell the one that’s more likely to take place, then you will be making good profit most of the times.

[minatour]

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

[Janation]

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience.

[Insanerman]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

That is true, since there are more and more traders coming up nowadays, the competition is becoming harder and more unpredictable.
Actually a lot of traders, as what I observed, are into day-tradings. If it happen more often, I do see lower probability to some coin on going to the moon since its price is just going up and down constantly for a long period of time.
The best coins to invest to are those that are powerful to the market. Like bitcoin does.

[deisik]

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience

There seems to be a misunderstanding here

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

[bitgolden]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yeah that’s correct. But some people don’t know about this. Experts say that the probability of us making a successful trade in trading is between 40% to 60%. It all goes down to different timing, and the condition of the market when you’re trading.

As long as you utilize the opportunity you have with that 40% to 60%, you will make big profit. That’s why you shouldn’t all the time, you should be able to figure when it’s the right time to trade. There’s possibly two sides to every thing, and when you can tell the one that’s more likely to take place, then you will be making good profit most of the times.

There are people who are making decisions based on TA and charts which are removing the probability a bit, not totally because even with TA and charts you are basically still making an assumption but at least you are basing your assumption into something. There are also people like me who do not understand about TA and make long term investment and that is probability as well but it is long term so it should be fine, I doubt bitcoin will never reach the price that you bought from, even if it is $20k, I am sure it will eventually be there.

However the real guys who make it probability is the people who make day trading or trading suddenly because they saw something that they think will cause the price to go up, or maybe the price just went up a lot and they want to be part of it during the ride, those guys are the risky probability people for sure.

[Wexnident]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

[TheGreatPython]

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not.

The chances of 50/50 in trading is implicitly confining that trading is based on probability . It is tug of war to find definite win and if that is not possible then finishing off the trade with controlled losses. When anything is possible in trading then, we should have control on everything that is the key thing here; with that key thing, we must need to have to minimize the losses and maximize their chances for hitting profits.

it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

But, if you learn from your mistakes then you will not repeat same mistakes then the odds for losing a trade will be getting lower which means you can hit profits more easily compared to your previous trades. This is what experienced traders are doing. The probability nature of trading is controllable and it is possible for every trader to control it over the experience.

[isaac_clarke22]

~

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

Considering that trading an unstable coin, you know that infos in social media aren't to be relied on.
It's all about roll of the dice sometimes. Only thing that could save your from that probability is probably diversed investment or just simply investing those funds that you wouldn't mind losing at all.
I never seen experts in this market, but there are plenty of celebrities pretending to be expert.

[KnightElite]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

50-50 chance is not always the probability in the trading; you can increase the winning percentage through practicing what is perfect and through backtesting. There are high probability setups and it can be 80-20 and 90-10 probability but there is no 100% winning probability because losses are inevitable in the market. It is actually funny when I saw a post that saying how to trade safely. Sorry mate but trading is risky it is up to you on how you will handle it very well.

[Yatsan]

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

50-50 chance is not always the probability in the trading; you can increase the winning percentage through practicing what is perfect and through backtesting. There are high probability setups and it can be 80-20 and 90-10 probability but there is no 100% winning probability because losses are inevitable in the market. It is actually funny when I saw a post that saying how to trade safely. Sorry mate but trading is risky it is up to you on how you will handle it very well.

Trading winning chance is based on your skill so basically, A lot of trader's with good skills are having that 80-20 or 90-10 probability of winning. 50-50 is for blind traders and for people who are thinking trading is like a gambling. Trading and gambling is a very 2 different thing! So I think to win your trade you should always be skillful and literally know what you are doing. 

[ChiBitCTy]

This really doesn't make any sense, you can't know what the probable outcome is for something you're trading.  You're making educated guesstimates, however.  Knowing the fundamentals and technicals is key but at the end up the day it's all a guess.

[Sebas.tian]

How will trade be probability based? When you buy potential coins or tokens and hold for a long-term base; why won't you be rewarded awesomely?. Imagine buy some good coins like bitcoin for trade and wait patiently before trade them, you will get huge profits on the long run without a doubt. Get you hands on a good coins and forget probability of a thing, do more research before venture into buy of any coins or tokens for long-term.

[Ucy]

How will trade be probability based? When you buy potential coins or tokens and hold for a long-term base; why won't you be rewarded awesomely?. Imagine buy some good coins like bitcoin for trade and wait patiently before trade them, you will get huge profits on the long run without a doubt. Get you hands on a good coins and forget probability of a thing, do more research before venture into buy of any coins or tokens for long-term.

Typical day trading are probability based, even for most skilled traders, and as long as market isn't deliberately manipulated. Most skilled traders can't know for sure where the future price will precisely go... best is to find the most likely direction things will go, just as op stated. It's fairly predictable though(depending on coin/token) unlike lots of other probability-based prediction markets

[wozzek23]

This really doesn't make any sense, you can't know what the probable outcome is for something you're trading.  You're making educated guesstimates, however.  Knowing the fundamentals and technicals is key but at the end up the day it's all a guess.

Probable outcome will fall into only two results which are profit and loss. There is nothing more, they are worrying about the outcome of trading. This is the reason people do call it based on probability. Probabilities is pure mathematics hence there will be no any of malfunctioning to be hidden here.

I couldn't get what are the differences between guess-work and probability; in some sense both the dealing about same thing as the outcome is unpredictable but based on some mathematics which could be known only later on. This is how exactly trading is working and we need to put our guess-works to make profits and there will be no guarantee for making profits all the times. So, the concepts of probability is perfectly fitting here.

[Wawa2013]

That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

[Utoy101]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

I agree with you, the whole concept of trading crypto centers around making research on any coin that has a tendency to increase in price over time, making proper analysis and research can actually take you far but after that you just have to predict and take few leaps of faith because many factors can comes in that will be out of your analysis and obviously out of your control too so it all boils down to prediction and probability

[davinchi]

That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

Your level of prediction is purely depending on your level of knowledge; no exceptions here. If you're making some profit out of a random entry and exit then you cannot assume you can easily tackle the probability nature of crypto trading but you will never find consistent results out of that kind of approach. You must need to trade in a well balanced manner so that you can repeat same kind of results all the time which is all about managing the probability nature of trading with control.

When everything is under probability, it is all about how short you cut your losses and how long you are allowing your profits to grow. It means you must find chances to minimize the losses and maximizing the occurrences of profits. Simply, when probabilities having chances for getting you both profits and losses then you must work on more profits and less losses all the times.

[Janation]

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience

There seems to be a misunderstanding here

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

I agree but what I am saying is this.

When you toss a coin, obviously the that is a 50-50 sovyou can just pick any of it but when it comes to a market that is not always 50-50, you would obviously go to the higher possibility. That is why I am talking about indicators. When it indicates a bull run, obviously you will be siding with the bull run since it has the higher possibility. That is not luck, but you based your money into siding with higher probability and it still can't happen since it is just a probability, there is still a risk in it.

[Restmand]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

Indeed. No one can really assure if your trades will turn out to be successful because of the volatility of the market that makes trading in cryptocurrency is a risk and unpredictable. It is why trading is based on chances or probability that it is very hard for all of us to conclude that we will make a successful trade.

[Arkann]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

Indeed. No one can really assure if your trades will turn out to be successful because of the volatility of the market that makes trading in cryptocurrency is a risk and unpredictable. It is why trading is based on chances or probability that it is very hard for all of us to conclude that we will make a successful trade.

You are really right. It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true. therefore, one way or another, any trader is faced with an unpredictable development of events in the market.

[lixer]

It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true. therefore, one way or another, any trader is faced with an unpredictable development of events in the market.

Yes, we are unable to predict the crypto market directions with all 100% accuracy as it is based on probability calculations which is dealing about happening and not-happening of one event with same rate of possibilities. As far as I have seen those experienced specialists are even expecting what they are not predicting. It means they are well aware of the other possibility of what they are actually not expecting. This is the reason they are able to accept losses more easily.

Simply, what we need to learn from the probably the nature of trading is, we must need to be prepared for facing anything because this market is working that way; no trader could do anything against it. But, we can be confident about making profits even in the occurrence of losses because both making profits and losses are having equal opportunities here.

[deisik]

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

I agree but what I am saying is this.

When you toss a coin, obviously the that is a 50-50 sovyou can just pick any of it but when it comes to a market that is not always 50-50, you would obviously go to the higher possibility. That is why I am talking about indicators. When it indicates a bull run, obviously you will be siding with the bull run since it has the higher possibility. That is not luck, but you based your money into siding with higher probability and it still can't happen since it is just a probability, there is still a risk in it

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. In short, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

[darewaller]

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. Put simply, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

Actually tossing a coin does not require any knowledge and trading is all about knowledge and the ability to read the market so we can't compare the tossing of a coin or a dice with trading. Yes, maybe people who randomly buy bitcoins and sell at higher price can be compared or those who buy any altcoin without prior research and due diligence.

But the real trading is based on knowledge and factors like how the market behaves in a certain situation and how the market crashes when there is a certain situation like we learned that bitcoins market could crash with pandemic like it did in March but it gets up very quickly so we can use this knowledge in future.

[chaser15]

You are really right. It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true.

Just want to clarify things here, those specialist you are talking are not really expecting a 100% chance that their forecast will happen. Their predictions are based on what they have seen in the charts. They have a basis on those forecasts which is valid and reasonable. That makes sense compared to those people who will just say a forecast that tomorrow will be up or down.

I'd rather follow that idea compare to doing a suicidal move based on my instincts to minimize the risk of losing.

In the end, we have our own way of what's the strategy should be used.

[barbara44]

That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

Basically anything we do has some sort of probability attached to it and trading also has it's own probabilities like the outcome can be favorable or unfavorable I agree like you said. But with more knowledge and experience you tend to take better decisions like still your trades have a chance of profit or loose but with time and experience you will make more 60-40% trades while when you are new you make 50-50 or 40-60% favorable trades so that is how it goes, you learn and use that knowledge in next time you trade which then increases your chance of profits.

I always consider trading as a no-edge based gambling and it is 50-50% in starting but as times goes on you get better just like sports betting.

[jostorres]

Well, you do not have to come to terms with probability because you might drop that if you want to. Just to give an example, when you are doing TA you do not really think that you are doing everything right and suddenly you are getting rich but at the same time you are dropping that chance a bit and that is why I think you could drop it a bit. Sure it is still probability but at least not as much as it used to be. If you are using TA and you are also doing a long term investment as well, you are dropping it a lot more.

If you are doing TA and you are investing long term and you also decide to put it on both 5 different good crypto plus have other outside of crypto investments like stocks and gold, you are dropping even more. At certain point it is not probability but just waiting on when you will profit.

[Majharul Saiif]

There are rare things to keep in mind when launching a business. The investor must want to intensify the opportunities of earning without incurring a loss. Some ancestral types of business depend on the fundamental situation and the creativity of the trader.
So it can be confessed that trading is based on probability.

[tvplus006]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.
..

If trading was based on probability, it would be no different from a casino. Just like in a casino, you can open an order for all your funds using X100 leverage and lose your money. But if you open small orders, taking into account the risks that accompany cryptocurrencies, and based on your knowledge, you will be less likely to lose money than in the casino.

[Apened]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Technically, yes, trading is based on probability as there is no assurance if the market will going to rise or fall but we can have an advantage on it if we know how to read charts. The chart will be a big help and survival in trade is the most needed. People trade especially the new ones because of easy profit the only thing that comes to their mind is to be greedy earn quick which is not that easy. Trading needs right risk management. proper entries and exits etc.

[jrrsparkles]

Probability may not the right terms to call the trading outcomes, it maybe either this or that so loss or profit situation only in trading.Its like gambling but not entirely we can do analysis, manipulation, note the things going in crypto market will help to analyse the prices of crypto.

[Deeshawn]

You have a point, truly trading is based on probability of either loss or gain, nothing like a fixed conclusion as no one can always rightly predict the market. This is one of the reason trader must trade wisely and stake what they can afford to lose.

[Timmzzy]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It's a good thing to say but not all traders the market like you do. Some traders like want to make it sharply with no waste of time. Some understood this logic but no funds (money) to put it into work.

[deisik]

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. Put simply, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

Actually tossing a coin does not require any knowledge and trading is all about knowledge and the ability to read the market so we can't compare the tossing of a coin or a dice with trading. Yes, maybe people who randomly buy bitcoins and sell at higher price can be compared or those who buy any altcoin without prior research and due diligence

That's not so for two major reasons. First, tossing a coin does require a lot of knowledge, i.e. if you have enough knowledge, tossing a coin stops being, well, tossing a coin in the sense of a random event. In this way, it is more than applicable to trading. Further, and this is second, your prior research is no guarantee of successful trading at all. Indeed, if you do know the market exceptionally well, have years of valuable trading experience, and enjoy powerful insights into the assets you trade it becomes a kind of informed coin tossing for you

But you will be in minority, like one in a million

[okala]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

[Janation]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

Patience is also a double-edged sword

This gave a lot of profit from a lot of people but there are also those that lost because the wrong timing. That also clings to probability since they are thinking that the price will go up continuously but it didn't. That is the reason why trading is really a probability and there are those times that we still loss.

[deisik]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

Patience is also a double-edged sword

I've always been saying that patience is overrated (as well as confidence)

The point is, if you lack knowledge and understanding of the market and the situation, then no amount of patience is going to help you. On the other hand, armed with true knowledge and genuine understanding, you don't need patience at all for the simple reason you would know exactly when to trade and when to stay away from trading. Psychologically, impatience is a result of feeling lost, i.e. not knowing what to do and when to do it

[SacriFries11]

You have a point, truly trading is based on probability of either loss or gain, nothing like a fixed conclusion as no one can always rightly predict the market. This is one of the reason trader must trade wisely and stake what they can afford to lose.

I agree, that’s why we have different signals and strategies we need to rely on. A lot of things we need to base on probability like gambling. The higher the probability of success the higher you have chance to win. Trading is also like a game but there are a lot of things you can rely on in order to win. The probability of a successful trade is normally 40-60 percent but it’s depends in market conditions.

[Rebisco]

Trading is a game of probabilities so expect that losses are inevitable. It is funny to see that there are a lot of people who actually searching in internet on how to avoid losses in trading but it is sad to say that it is really not existing because all of the trading strategies can fail sometimes due to the volatility of the money. There is no sure profit in trading that is why risk management is important because if we trade against our bias, we can lessen the losses that we can take.

[kolbalish]

I endorse that trading is sure of on probabilities. Because when we inaugurate a business or trade or hold whatever we do, we do everything on the resilience of the possibilities. But we render decisions based on such circumstances. When we hold, when there can be profit and when there can be a loss, we reach a doorstep from these circumstances. Everything is depending on probability, including trading.

[durilup]

If you are talking about a normal stock trader I could somehow agree with your opinion but I think that being a daily trader in cryptocurrencies is complete different because the volatility is high

[South Park]

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

While you are correct very few people have the capability of thinking like that, whenever they make a prediction they think that prediction needs to come true however we know that is not the case, we know that if you predict the price is going to go up it could always go down for reasons that are impossible for you to understand and you just need to accept the outcome and accept that particular trade is going to be a loss but very few people have the maturity to do something like that.

[beerlover]

Basically it's about a prediction and any analysis can be done but indeed, even when a prediction is released from an influential person it still doesn't guarantee the prediction will actually happen.

Influential people are known for moving market with their followers/fans club. I mean if your having big subscriber base and you are releasing some prediction about market movements then regardless of whatever conditions of market, those huge subscribers will be making those prediction true because they got the enough potential to manipulate the market directions. This is usually happening in this crypto space because crypto space is still lagging in volume compared to how forex and stock markets are doing.

I think that being a daily trader in cryptocurrencies is complete different because the volatility is high

Volatility is the thing which makes us to assume about trading is purely based on probability and not based on any of the mathematical functionality. Cryptocurrency market is volatile because whales are still manipulating direction for their own benefits. When crypto trading is still getting impact by its volatility, it is highly recommended not to do day trading here.

[semobo]

Not really the probability because it the outcome maybe anything even something unexpected that no one expected, but it is somewhat true trading is based on the data we have an analyse the possible outcome at the market situation.

[lixer]

Basically it's about a prediction and any analysis can be done but indeed, even when a prediction is released from an influential person it still doesn't guarantee the prediction will actually happen. So that in this case trading is based on probability, at the same time at least a trader must have the ability to overcome losses, all of which are basic things that must always be aware and full of consideration.

Almost any business and anything we do have a probability and chance element associated with it. The important part is to analyse how much is the favorable chance as compared to the possibility of the unexpected to happen. That is how traders work, they will make bad trades initially but as we learn with time we make a habit of making good trades. Good trade is nothing but higher chance of profit so even there is a possibility of loss but because you are making numerous trades so the law of averages would always favor the better trades for profit.

often times gambling and trading are put in the same category but people forget that while gambling gives you the ability to analyse (sports betting) it also carries a massive house edge which is why gamblers loose, in trading there is almost no edge apart from the platform fees which we use for trading.

[South Park]

Almost any business and anything we do have a probability and chance element associated with it. The important part is to analyse how much is the favorable chance as compared to the possibility of the unexpected to happen. That is how traders work, they will make bad trades initially but as we learn with time we make a habit of making good trades. Good trade is nothing but higher chance of profit so even there is a possibility of loss but because you are making numerous trades so the law of averages would always favor the better trades for profit.

often times gambling and trading are put in the same category but people forget that while gambling gives you the ability to analyse (sports betting) it also carries a massive house edge which is why gamblers loose, in trading there is almost no edge apart from the platform fees which we use for trading.

Exactly, trading like any other skill will take time to be learned correctly, but one of the great things about technical analysis is that allows you to see many instances in which a particular pattern presents itself and then you see the price behaving in a certain way, while the market is not going to move 100% of the time in the same way you can find patterns that gives you a high probability of winning your trades and once you can do that the only thing you need to watch for are your money management skills.

[orengitu]

Even though it based on probability it's doesn't mean that everything is based on probability, if you study the market very well you will increase the chances of gaining and not loosing.
There's some things that have to be observed before trading, someone can't just go into trading because they said it based on probability the person will eventually loose everything.
Before you go into trading do the following
Study the market very well
Gather informations and knowledge on trading
Take a step at a time

[DarkDays]

If you are talking about a normal stock trader I could somehow agree with your opinion but I think that being a daily trader in cryptocurrencies is complete different because the volatility is high

I somewhat agree. In my opinion trading is not so much based on probability like gambling is but more about reading and predicting what the market will do. Unlike gambling where you can't really tell from the outcome of previous games, there is so much you can determine from looking at progression graphs.

Because of the amount of data available to help you strategies a decision for me trading doesn't so much resolve on probabilities but understanding and predicting.

[Zanab247]

Trading is different from other society activities that you can just join today and start doing the right thing with the group in the society. Trading is a system every buyers or sellers will really try to understand very well in the market. There are two things involved in trading in the market, either you gain or you lose in the market, that is the two things involved in the trading spirit which every trader must be aware of before joining the forum to trade in the market.

[angrynerd88]

Professional  dealer will continuously guarantees that the odd or likelihood is on their side coupled with great exchanging methodology a tall chance to compensate exchange put such a trader' s likelihood of making benefits in spite of a few misfortunes in a positive side. The showcase is erratic subsequently their diverse result in term of making benefit whereas a newbie will adhere to buying moo and offering tall wart outlined within the chart above clearly may be a exceptionally straightforward strategy of exchanging which have a positive result.

[Issa56]

That's just the fact trading is definitely probability nobody is sure about what will happen to a coin after buying it but you just hope the price will increase after buying!!!

[Hamphser]

That's just the fact trading is definitely probability nobody is sure about what will happen to a coin after buying it but you just hope the price will increase after buying!!!

We are indeed into that probability area when we do deal with Trading.Price movement cant be known and this is why technical and fundamental
indicator exist because of this due very reason.If the market had been predictable then no people will really be engaging or simply lots will be
rich since they do know on where price do go and make money with it.In common sense thing then its really impossible to see these things
or wont really exist from the start if it s predictable.We wont really be presuming numbers if this isn't basing on probability.

[gamer4156]

Everything including getting more cash is about danger taking thus exchanging ought not be any extraordinary. I consider most dealers don't generally figure the likelihood prior to exchanging. They are bound to utilize their genuine encounters, proficiencies, investigating aptitudes to comprehend the circumstance.

[Benefactor]

Everything including getting more cash is about danger taking thus exchanging ought not be any unique. They are bound to utilize their genuine encounters, familiarities, breaking down aptitudes to comprehend the circumstance. I make the most of the open doors accessible with exchanging information that I need to boost exchanging pay. Retail merchants who keep on losing their cash just make the most of chances without anticipating what will occur after the open door is taken.

[maldini]

There are obviously occasions that impact and the market, and there are every now and again rehashing designs that can be utilized for your potential benefit. There is a likelihood that it might succeed or not. Everything including getting more cash is about danger taking thus exchanging ought not be any unique.

[LimLims]

That's just the fact trading is definitely probability nobody is sure about what will happen to a coin after buying it but you just hope the price will increase after buying!!!

IMO, the statement you have made is not appropriate.
Not only probability, trading is also based on estimation.
If you made a good estimation and prediction while choosing the perfect coin, then surely you will get profit from it.
Moreover if we always rely on probability and future without knowing about the fact of action then surely we gonna fall in lose.
So i hope the OP got the correct answer also.