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Author Topic: TA indicates a sharp drop soon  (Read 732 times)
ukloon
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June 10, 2020, 10:43:35 PM
 #1

It looks like bitcoin has failed on so many occasions to breach 10k that a triple top could form both monthly and weekly!



I guess it depends on how much gas is left in the tank for these bulls, it might push upwards but the technical analysis doesn't look overly positive.

If history repeats itself from Feb, we will see a sharp drop as shown in this bearish chart (see link below). If 8k fails to hold then get your cash ready for the final chance to buy in! Grin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254210.0

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June 10, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
 #2

It'd be interesting if it turns into a massive descending rectangle and follows the same thing twice or three times 🙄.

But yeah if we dont get a volume spike soon we'll probably continue along the same way and go back down towards $6/3k levels...

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June 10, 2020, 11:42:20 PM
 #3

Triple top and Head&shoulders do really means out high tendency of drop which is mostly effective if we do it on forex but doesnt mean that
it wont happen here on crypto yet there are lots of time that crypto market can break out any TA's out there.

Lets hope that it would break that 10k barrier this time but it seems the price is tanking below the line neither it would break or bounce down.

But neither of the case, i do still have sufficient cash for buybacks.

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June 10, 2020, 11:57:10 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2020, 12:14:08 AM by STT
 #4

Quote
triple top could form

Does that spike at the beginning of June indicate a significant break of resistance and trend, thats what Im wondering.   The market seems very insistent that we keep bumping up against this area.
  My general feeling is further action downwards, perhaps triggered by some event but I'm not sure there is enough excuse to expect it for sure.   Head and shoulders is not something I feel that confident judging, a double top with a lower second price peak attempting would be more recognisable to me.   The last attempts to break upwards have made me uncertain as we have yet to fail the trend since March.    My last attempt to be bearish in my view was to refer to fib levels going back some years as we've been in this area many times and Ive never thought a round 10k was the pivot but the areas around it need to be snuffed out first before we can say this rally has died and will certainly break thousands downwards.

So far as a target downwards I think 7482, this was the lows from last year and it fits recent action also when we recovered from the March sell off.   8766 is the level I see we've maintained on every low since April so with so many attempts either way I want to see that break to be especially sure BTC price will be discovering lower prices for an extended duration.   Normally we are just attempting and failing to break up or down.

Draw this chart on weekly bars and try to draw a conclusion similarly from that, weekly is the golden standard by me.   The lower time frames can blip about and do anything, more noise.

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June 11, 2020, 12:06:48 AM
 #5

It looks like bitcoin has failed on so many occasions to breach 10k that a triple top could form both monthly and weekly!


The way it keeps hammering into $10K on the daily chart is bullish to me. Usually when S/R gets tested over and over, it eventually breaks.

I don't really buy the triple top theory either:

A triple top (October 2019, February 2020, June 2020) isn't good for the bulls.

Double tops (or triple tops) are topping patterns that appear at the end of uptrends. $10.5K is resistance in a long term downtrend. Big difference. The lower lows in between those peaks rule out any sort of topping structure like that.

Triple tops are unicorns anyway. I've never seen them work before. Usually it's just a temporary consolidation before a prior double top is broken to the upside. Wink

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June 11, 2020, 01:29:55 AM
 #6

It looks like bitcoin has failed on so many occasions to breach 10k that a triple top could form both monthly and weekly!

It could, but there's still few days until the end of the week so too early to tell. Still another 20 days until the end of the month too.
The weekly candle would need to end in the red, and bearish looking, for me to follow this theory. The current candle doesn't suggest a rejection at all to me.

The way it keeps hammering into $10K on the daily chart is bullish to me. Usually when S/R gets tested over and over, it eventually breaks.

My thoughts exactly. A clear horizontal resistance (if you ignore the head fake or imagine it as a wick) with ascending support of higher lows. It's bullish.

I don't really buy the triple top theory either

Me neither.

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June 11, 2020, 02:42:44 AM
 #7

A sharp fall soon might be correct. That was nice of you to use that instead of dump hehehe. However, it will certainly be followed by another pump. Tether has printed billions. Where would that go? How will it be used? Dump and pump hehehe.



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June 11, 2020, 03:02:25 AM
 #8

The multiple top happened in a month timeframe so it's understandable. It's common that the same price wall will still remain for a short period of time. But still I don't understand why you come up a huge spike while BTC is still on track and never broke the uptrend line since the price recovery after big dump on 3K level. I believe pure TA will not gonna work on BTC. It was already proved by the future events.


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June 11, 2020, 03:07:40 AM
 #9

If the price goes down, I hope the price can increase more than $10k first, and then the price will go down. If the price can be like that, I think we can book a nice profit before we can buy back Bitcoin at a lower price. And now, the price finally can break $9,900 again, and I wonder if the price can break $10k, which is the hard thing that the price can break for a few days ago.


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June 11, 2020, 03:35:50 AM
 #10

Honestly it can go either way. Basically its consolidating against resistance and can easily break up. Someone on twitter brought up a good point about $10K being the new $6K from 2018.

Remember $6K from 2018? We kept wicking under it and always closed above it, people kept trying to jump in short and ended up being rekt when the support kept holding. Then one day, poof and off we went to $3K.

Same with $10K now except opposite, we fail to close above $10K on the weekly and whenever we are about to break $10K, tons of bulls get in try to long the break, and end up getting wicked out on the pullback. So honestly one day out of the blue we might break $10K and never go back.





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June 11, 2020, 04:43:24 AM
 #11

sharp drop
go back down towards $6/3k levels...

to this day i still don't understand why some people keep saying things like this! why should price of something drop SIGNIFICANTLY just because it didn't go up?
i get a small drop to something like $9100 or to $8900, it makes perfect sense and it has been the reality of every market out there, also the bitcoin sideways periods have always been like this when price fails to break the resistance (or another way of looking at it: fails to break the support and go lower!) it keeps dropping and rising in small increments.
but i never understand why you claim that drop has to be so GIGANTIC?

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June 11, 2020, 05:26:47 AM
 #12

Of course we're following the chart, and that indeed resembles the movements from February where a very "sharp" drop happened early March. But, that's not always gonna be the case everytime, and Infact these short movements in the region of $8,000-$10,000 has been going on for almost 2 months now. This will either break the resistance and initiate a bull run, or will have significant drop. It's not something to worry about anyway, because these won't matter in the long run when Bitcoin finally hits another ATH.

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June 11, 2020, 06:09:05 AM
 #13

Of course we're following the chart, and that indeed resembles the movements from February where a very "sharp" drop happened early March.

here is the problem, the price in Feb/Mar didn't drop because of some meaningless technical analysis or some arbitrary "resistance" failing to be broken. it dropped because the world's economy started crashing and all major markets all around the world have been crashing hard.
same with any other "major" crash, there is always a solid reason behind every one of them which has nothing to do with TA.

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June 11, 2020, 06:49:36 AM
 #14

sharp drop
go back down towards $6/3k levels...

to this day i still don't understand why some people keep saying things like this! why should price of something drop SIGNIFICANTLY just because it didn't go up?

It's not that it should, but that it can.

I'd say $3K is improbable, but $6K would be completely typical for BTC. Just another day in the market. The historical charts are riddled with drops like that, and surely there isn't a fundamental explanation for every one. Sometimes the market just drops. Supply and demand, etc. BTC is a very thin market. It doesn't take that many coins to spark a selloff, especially if the underlying market conditions are bearish.

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June 11, 2020, 10:55:35 AM
Merited by pooya87 (1)
 #15

Of course we're following the chart, and that indeed resembles the movements from February where a very "sharp" drop happened early March.

here is the problem, the price in Feb/Mar didn't drop because of some meaningless technical analysis or some arbitrary "resistance" failing to be broken. it dropped because the world's economy started crashing and all major markets all around the world have been crashing hard.
same with any other "major" crash, there is always a solid reason behind every one of them which has nothing to do with TA.

That's the significance of the drop in March. Whereas the OP's technical analysis purely base on the chart movements, that's why I said "it's not always gonna be the case" because there are also legitimate reasons behind every price action, like the ones you have mentioned.
This chart is just another mere prediction base on market sentiments and is completely irrelevant with the next Bitcoin movement.

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June 11, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
 #16

That is the trick here, the chart says it "could" drop, it could also go up insanely high as well, it could go up so much that the price could be $20k, there is really no guarantee scenario here as you can see, there is just possibilities. This chart is one in a million of others, this one shows there is a triple top and that could cause a drop and I understand, that has happened before as well so it wouldn't be the first time and I think it would make sense if it happened again.

However that doesn't mean it WILL happen, it just means it MIGHT happen and that's it. That is why there is no need to panic, be ready for a drop if it happens but do not expect a drop and act accordingly, just be prepared and that is enough. I personally would love to see it drop because I want to buy some more of it.

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June 11, 2020, 06:25:52 PM
 #17

sharp drop
go back down towards $6/3k levels...

to this day i still don't understand why some people keep saying things like this! why should price of something drop SIGNIFICANTLY just because it didn't go up?
i get a small drop to something like $9100 or to $8900, it makes perfect sense and it has been the reality of every market out there, also the bitcoin sideways periods have always been like this when price fails to break the resistance (or another way of looking at it: fails to break the support and go lower!) it keeps dropping and rising in small increments.
but i never understand why you claim that drop has to be so GIGANTIC?

Mines coming from the fact the other drop was massive. If people bought at 4-5k and we drop down to 7k quickly, theyll be more likely to drop their coins and sell them off. Since we went to 3.8k so fast I haven't had much faith in the price holding any level also tbh.

From mainstream social media too there's a lot of retail that are holding their coins, if we do another drop they light cut their losses and pull out... There's also a chance the stock market will crash again and it doesn't seem unlikely...

I don't think it'll be a massive drop though, it could be but I think a fall to 6.5k is realistic considering we've plateaued for some time. We can't really be stable at 6k so it could be around 5.5 instead if we go further... We looked to have dropped and risen from 9k at the point I'm writing this, dunno if this is going to move further or just go back up.
That is the trick here, the chart says it "could" drop, it could also go up insanely high as well, it could go up so much that the price could be $20k,

Yeah a lot of ta for traditional forex is 60-90% accurate for forex, it's probably lower with crypto just due to differing markets and the number of people looking at simple ta patterns...

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June 11, 2020, 08:02:53 PM
 #18

$10,000 will end up like many other strong resistances in the past, it’ll get breached 100%. We may see a dump in the near future but so what. I’m more interested in the long term price direction not short term movements.

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June 11, 2020, 10:40:51 PM
 #19

I don't claim to be right all the time, but i tried to warn y'all!  Grin



It's now hovering around the $9300 range but i suspect we will see more pain soon with a zig zag pattern downwards. It also fits in with a popular Elliott Wave theory that bitcoin is entering the final phase (Wave E). So after the final dump down to whatever price - it will rise up to ATH.

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June 11, 2020, 10:44:31 PM
 #20

$10,000 will end up like many other strong resistances in the past, it’ll get breached 100%. We may see a dump in the near future but so what. I’m more interested in the long term price direction not short term movements.

Of course.

The more times a level gets hit it becomes weaker and it's like that in both directions. We've been hitting 10 thousand for a while now and it's not going to keep resisting forever.

Bullish expectations point towards 10 thousand this year but I can see us at least touching last year's top of 14.

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