How long will it take banks to phase out physical cash completely?

[South Park]

59 percent of global population has access to internet and according to this website we achieved this percentage in 25 years.
Here you can see the chart:


Numbers down below are up to 80 because there was a mixture of early and monthly statistics.

Btw seems there is a significant steady rise in number of internet users but still I think it will take decades to move population into cashless society, personally I don't like this fact cause it will be super easy to manipulate everything as you wish online. And after that, there will be no need of ATMs, right? Idk, that may happen or may not in near future, very hard to predict.

Most of the money of the world already exists as nothing more but numbers in a computer screen so I do not think that from that perspective too much is going to change, the main difference is that governments and banks will know every single thing you can do with your money and if for some reason they think you are a menace to them they could just block your accounts and not allow you to buy anything and silence people very effectively by just pushing a few buttons.

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[Arkann]

One way or another, the banking system has long since begun the process of withdrawing paper funds from use. First of all, this is an initiative of governments, because it is they who initiate non-cash payments for their citizens, while even the elderly today receive pensions to bank accounts, while they still have no idea how to use their bank cards and continue to receive cash in banking institutions from your account. Thus, I believe that the only obstacle to 100% cashless payments is the old generation of people. undoubtedly, the coronavirus epidemic can speed up this process, but the banking system also greatly contributes to this, especially you should pay attention to all these bonuses and privileges for their customers who pay with a bank card in stores and for other services.

[TrevorS]

So far, there is not a single state that would be built on cryptocurrency or digital currencies. One way or another, everyone has to go to the bank and take money from the banks. As long as this system works in this way, we cannot expect any changes. People get their salaries from banks, everything works for banks. Cryptocurrency is outside the state levels, and it can take a long time for states to equalize with it.

[wozzek23]

As we enter the digital realm due to the effects of COVID-19, the process of central banks phasing out physical cash from existence might take place soon. Before the outbreak, we've been accustomed in using credit/debit cards and contactless payments greatly eliminating the need for physical cash. Now that we're in a "COVID Era", things have accelerated quite a bit. Banks and governments are in talks of adopting CBDCs which could completely eliminate the need to pay for things with physical cash.

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

The global pandemic might speed up the process of digitization by a bit, but its still a long way for banks to disappear the physical cash currency completely. Many national banks across the world are onto the idea of launching their own “central bank digital currency” also know as CBDC. It will still take the government at least 5-7 years to eliminate the use of physical cash to a great extent.

Complete digitization of the payment system may take 10-15 years. Dominos in some countries has stopped accepting cash as a payment method due to the ongoing pandemic scenario to avoid any type of contact even through paper money. So, that’s definitely a step towards digitization.

[FlightyPouch]

Before corona I would have said it's going to take a very long time to phase out physical cash but now with the new normal it might be much faster. People got scared using cash in the stores because of catching the corona virus. Almost all stores asked their customers to use electronic payments. Even thought spreading of corona via money is very unlikely.
so most of the payments I see now are either done with a card, just holding at the sensor or even via phone. Probably after corona is gone this will not change back.

And banks will still continue to exist right? Even though people stats to widely use cards, I don't think they will just phase out physical cash or currencies. People don't want to put all of their money in one place so either they have most of it in the banks or sone of them in their house. We are in a pandemic and people are continuing to use physical cash more than other payment methods.

People using online payments or mobile payment increased, that is true but most of the people are still using physical cash.

[erikoy]

It will depend on the user or client of that bank. Actually fiat money could not be replaced with digital currency because it is just like a back up to the real numbers.of digital currency could be. Whatever amount one deposited in the bank that amount will reflect to as into digital.currency in form. So all of the digital currency was based on fiat currency. Aside from that fiat currency prove to be the most effective way in exchange for goods and services like it has been done before long time ago and up to present. However, cashless may seem also good and comfortable but all of it if combine would do better. It is better to have choices rather than having a single option.

[TheGreatPython]

I may be handy, as a first step, for a government to issue phones compatible with the currency they want to use andake them available to alpha testers... You can't just use any phone for it and some may be incompatible too. A card capable of signing information could also be more expensive than the current rfid contactless systems in place.

The good thing about cash for people is that it helps you budget and stops you spending everything, which is also the bad thing for companies and governments.

Notes at an atm here are quarenteened it's also possible to have people feed cash into systems that count the value (enough self service machines do this) and these may become more prevelant.

That’s definitely a point to be noted. Politicians and other civil workers with tons of black money would form a strong resistance against the whole system of digitalization. Cash can be collected and hidden, and no one could keep track of it but digital money on the other hand will stay in the wallets and will pretty much be under 24 hours surveillance by the government. Can’t be spent or hidden in various wallets without the government knowing about it.

I would like to add one other point here: people don’t even trust the banks and credit card companies at full extent due to all the frauds occurring in the country so imagine how hard it is going to be to handle all that digitized money without the fear of frauds and scandals.

[Twentyonepaylots]

As we enter the digital realm due to the effects of COVID-19, the process of central banks phasing out physical cash from existence might take place soon. Before the outbreak, we've been accustomed in using credit/debit cards and contactless payments greatly eliminating the need for physical cash. Now that we're in a "COVID Era", things have accelerated quite a bit. Banks and governments are in talks of adopting CBDCs which could completely eliminate the need to pay for things with physical cash.

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

The global pandemic might speed up the process of digitization by a bit, but its still a long way for banks to disappear the physical cash currency completely. Many national banks across the world are onto the idea of launching their own “central bank digital currency” also know as CBDC. It will still take the government at least 5-7 years to eliminate the use of physical cash to a great extent.

I also believe that the pandemic helps the crypto in some way but don't get me wrong this pandemic isn't a blessing in any way. But I have to disagree, physical cash won't be out for the rest of our lives, world won't run to fully automatic that's the reason why we cannot live in a society with just a digital money, besides the digital money was not created to be a replacement, there are things that is more convenient when being used with cash. And the Central Bank Digital Currency, it does not mean that they will phase out the fiat, they won't do that obviously, but I still don't know much of this than just tokenization of asset and having digital cash.

[KrisAlex18]

No one truly knows the exact span of time it would take banks to totally phase out physical cash completely. But for sure it would take a long time for it would still undergo certain argumentations and legal processes for physical cash is a nation's property and phasing it out will still in need for the concern and opinion of the citizens.

In the first place, why would in need to phase out the physical money? Yes it is said that virus can possibly be transferred through paper money but what we just need is to sanitize it and also ourselves. Also, once vaccine is already available, then there will be no other thing to be worried about. So if that is the only reason for the phasing out of physical money, then there is no need to do such already.

With regards to the adaptation of CBDCs it still depends on the government if they will adapt on creating or using such. For those who will not, for sure phasing out of physical money would be impossible to make happen. Also, if they were trying to phase it out, better assure that the citizens can totally adapt on using digital currencies like crypto and that would be the time phasing out could be possible once everyone agrees on the same stand. But it would still took a long process since adaptation, demand and learning must be the first thing to do to effectively implement cashless society before phasing out physical money.

[bits4books]

You initially put the question incorrectly. The question is not how quickly banks will be able to switch to a full cashless payment, but whether all and even the smallest entrepreneurs will want to give up cash payments. Whether all old people will want to switch to plastic cards. Plus, do not forget that all this needs to be serviced somehow, and this is a big cost for master systems (Visa, MC) to expand capacity and improve stability. Too much needs to be done and the ways of total digitalization of money turnover are not obvious enough to raise the question as simply as you do.

[shoreno]

You initially put the question incorrectly. The question is not how quickly banks will be able to switch to a full cashless payment,

i dont know about you but i thinnk both are the same   . to phase out mean there is nothing left and if theres nothing left they can decide to switch cashless now but they can only do that if they wont print money anymore  .

but whether all and even the smallest entrepreneurs will want to give up cash payments. Whether all old people will want to switch to plastic cards. Plus, do not forget that all this needs to be serviced somehow, and this is a big cost for master systems (Visa, MC) to expand capacity and improve stability.

big companies are already integrated with visa and master card  . they are also already paying for the maintenance cost because they already have thier online versions  . for small entrepreneurs , its easy to setup digital payments and they can do this on thier own   .

[Vishnu.Reang]

big companies are already integrated with visa and master card  . they are also already paying for the maintenance cost because they already have thier online versions  . for small entrepreneurs , its easy to setup digital payments and they can do this on thier own   .

Visa/Master doesn't come cheap. They charge anywhere between 1% and 2% of the total transaction amount. That means that if a company is having a profit margin of 5%, then 20% to 40% of that profit is eaten up by Visa/Master. But then, Bitcoin transaction fee is also not that cheap. Today I paid $5 for a single transaction. And I remember the case in 2017, when I paid $45 fee for a single transaction.

[mezzaluna]

As we enter the digital realm due to the effects of COVID-19, the process of central banks phasing out physical cash from existence might take place soon. Before the outbreak, we've been accustomed in using credit/debit cards and contactless payments greatly eliminating the need for physical cash. Now that we're in a "COVID Era", things have accelerated quite a bit. Banks and governments are in talks of adopting CBDCs which could completely eliminate the need to pay for things with physical cash.

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

I guess it would still be impossible even during this time of pandemic. The effect of this Pandemic only slowed down some of the transactions in some countries that were not expecting the virus. It damaged their economic status and that is really sad since most of these damages occur in third world countries while advance countries are transitioning into digital payments in their own ways. It would be really helpful if the governments are the one asking for help from other countries and not just individual users that has knowledge about this matter since it would really be helpful since it can lift the economy and lessen the impact of the pandemic.

[aioc]

That's not going to happen, there are regions, society and community that will do away with fiat there are some regions that do not have access to internet or fart flung places that do not have electricity and they cannot transact without the internet and electricity.
I doubt if we can ever replace fiat maybe not in the next ten years.

[South Park]

The global pandemic might speed up the process of digitization by a bit, but its still a long way for banks to disappear the physical cash currency completely. Many national banks across the world are onto the idea of launching their own “central bank digital currency” also know as CBDC. It will still take the government at least 5-7 years to eliminate the use of physical cash to a great extent.

Complete digitization of the payment system may take 10-15 years. Dominos in some countries has stopped accepting cash as a payment method due to the ongoing pandemic scenario to avoid any type of contact even through paper money. So, that’s definitely a step towards digitization.

However in many countries where there is abject poverty it is going to be impossible to eliminate cash as those people will simply do not have the means to access online banking at all, however I agree that this pandemic is going to accelerate the process and bankers are not going to lose the opportunity to help themselves and recommend or even force some people to give up cash and use more digital transactions, and I know this is effective because even if I have always preferred to use cash now I have found myself doing a great deal of my purchases electronically.

[MainIbem]

Much as I love the cashless system, it is not so easy to out-rightly go cashless. There are several reasons which have been mentioned by some of the posts. One big reason is mentioned by Jackg: you think politicians are going to want to get rid of cash?. Another reason is the ease with which you could loose all your money in a second. Hackers are not sleeping.  Thirdly, the issue of availability of internet and the ability for all to be able to afford it.

[deisik]

Visa/Master doesn't come cheap. They charge anywhere between 1% and 2% of the total transaction amount. That means that if a company is having a profit margin of 5%, then 20% to 40% of that profit is eaten up by Visa/Master

I'm not sure your calculations are correct

Note that I don't necessarily say they are wrong. I just don't understand how you arrived at 20% to 40% of profit margin being eaten up by the payment system. To make life easier and calculations simpler, let's consider the charge at 1% exactly. So how did you get 20% out of a 5% profit margin? Like 5% of profit out of 1000$ transacted amount is 50$, and you pay 1% which is 10$, or 20% taken from 50$ of profits, right? To me, it doesn't look like a correct approach to calculating costs

As I see it, if you should include the costs of using Visa or MasterCard in the price of goods and services you offer as they are just costs like any other, regardless of the actual payment method your clients might use. Then your profit margins should remain more or less intact. In other words, you will have to close the shop if you are going to pay so much out of your profits provided everyone pays with Visa or MasterCard, of course. What am I missing here?

[Abiky]

They will not offer the most important thing

Which is predictable and controlled supply (read, hard-capped). And this also happens to be the first part of Bitcoin's value proposition, the other part being its decentralized nature (which CBDCs also lack). All the advantages of CBDCs (whatever those might be) will become instantly irrelevant once central banks start printing these "new" currencies like there's no tomorrow. That's a doornail into the coffin of any CBDC out there. Put simply, a CBDC is just fiat on juice

Agree. CBDCs will just become "Fiat on steroids". It'll be nothing more than a centralized "glorified" digital ledger where banks and governments can manipulate the economy at will. The end user won't notice the difference when using CBDCs, except for issuers themselves. I believe that governments are eager to distribute CBDCs in the least time possible in order to have greater control over the economy. After all, physical cash transactions become harder to track and trace by said entities. A CBDC will eliminate privacy once and for all, increasing government surveillance as we speak. Decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum will become an "escape route" for those looking for privacy and censorship resistance. It'll be a never-ending battle between the centralized and decentralized economy in the future.

Even now with physical cash in play, governments have been trying to do their best in order to prevent the masses from using crypto on top of Fiat. Things will become even worse with CBDCs as they give governments and central banks more power over the mainstream economy. Imagine if they declare crypto to be "illegal". Most people would think twice before using crypto for daily payments. Only a very small minority will be using crypto "behind the scenes" as an alternative to digital Fiat (CBDC). For now, CBDCs are purely experimental. It may take a couple of years from now, before they're fully tested and developed into a large ecosystem people can use for mainstream transactions. Once physical cash is phased out at a slow and steady pace, CBDCs will completely take over the world's economy in the future. Just my thoughts

[Salauddin1994]

Although the economy can recover in terms of foreign aid, the epidemic cannot be controlled. The epidemic cannot be eradicated at once unless adequate vaccines are available. The number of epidemics is increasing day by day. But it will take a long time for the banks to cash in. Banks are not able to function properly due to the epidemic and they are not able to function properly due to lack of proper action by the government which is reducing the demand of their banks.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I'm not sure your calculations are correct

Note that I don't necessarily say they are wrong. I just don't understand how you arrived at 20% to 40% of profit margin being eaten up by the payment system. To make life easier and calculations simpler, let's consider the charge at 1% exactly. So how did you get 20% out of a 5% profit margin? Like 5% of profit out of 1000$ transacted amount is 50$, and you pay 1% which is 10$, or 20% taken from 50$ of profits, right? To me, it doesn't like a correct approach to calculating costs

As I see it, if you should include the costs of using Visa or MasterCard in the price of goods and services you offer as they are just costs like any other, regardless of the actual payment method your clients might use. Then your profit margins should remain more or less intact. In other words, you will have to close the shop if you are going to pay so much out of your profits provided everyone pays with Visa or MasterCard, of course. What am I missing here?

In my country, the fee charged by Visa/Master is 1.8% plus GST, which comes to 2%. So if you sell something worth $1,000, then you need to pay Visa $20. In a way, what you are saying is correct. This $20 should be added to the "price of goods and services". In such cases, the profit margin for the merchant is $30, or 3%. Now the complexity comes in, because the merchant accept several modes of payment. He accepts physical cash, he accept payment from mobile wallets and he also accept Visa/Master. So here, the "price of goods and services" is not a uniform figure. It can range from $950 to $970.