I wouldn't worry too much about "seeing Apple everywhere". Every iPhone looks nearly the same and they all have very prominent branding so it's easy to spot them quickly.
And besides, I agree that data can provide insight. Bitcoin is a long term project. The state of the mobile market
today is not relevant because Bitcoin itself is not relevant today. What should interest us is how things might look in two or three years, and how it breaks down amongst different demographics.
Apple long ago stopped announcing activation figures for the iPhone specifically (tablets aren't so relevant for mobile payments), it's likely they are a long way behind. The last announced Android figure was ~700k per day. I think Apple stopped announcing at 250k per day (for both tablets and phones).
But we can try and extrapolate from other sources. Clicky is a newish web tracking firm with half a million sites. StatCounter has about 3 million. The mix of sites is of course NOT a random sample of all websites mobile users visit, so we use two sources to try and discern general trends rather than absolute figures.
Firstly, we can see that a lot of this varies by region. For instance in South Korea Android utterly crushes iOS. I didn't include Clicky because their graph for Korea is wildly oscillating noise and I doubt it's reliable. StatCounters data matches recent news reports where lack of LTE is cited as a common concern.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-KR-monthly-201012-201112In Germany the iPhone is more popular but it's changing quickly and soon the positions will reverse:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-DE-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/de/operating-systems/mobile/Switzerland:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-CH-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/ch/operating-systems/mobile/Clickys results are a bit dodgy looking again, but they both agree on the general trends, iOS is way ahead but Android is growing, market share changed permanently in August.
The iPhone launched first in the USA, it's made by a US company, and it's a fiercely fought market with huge marketing budgets. So it's not surprising that the situation there is not changing so fast:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-US-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/us/operating-systems/mobile/Instead both Android and iOS are selling enough to keep pace with each other in a rapidly growing market, and Blackberry is dropping like a stone (as a fraction of overall web traffic).
The situation is more interesting in the developing world, which I think is somewhere Bitcoin could be of more impact than in the west - flaky inflation-prone currencies and lack of good credit card systems are common issues there.
Brazil:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-BR-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/br/operating-systems/mobile/The stats are harder to read here, probably due to lack of sufficient data and different mix of sites with the tracking code installed. Clicky shows iOS keeping stable and Android growing steadily until a massive jump at the end. But the numbers are questionable - is iOS really more popular than "other"? I doubt it, more likely Clicky, being newer, is installed on sites that are more modern/web2.0/tailored for smartphone users. Also there's no volume counts, it's probably low. StatCounter shows a slightly more believable graph in which both iOS and Android are behind Symbian (cheap nokias), but this time Android is ahead. The derivative changes changes in September which is the sort of thing you'd associate with a new device launch.
Estonia (does it still count as 'developing' these days I wonder?)
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-EE-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/ee/operating-systems/mobile/Clicky shows the exact opposite of StatCounter here, but the graph is so noisy I suspect it's being drawn from hardly any data at all. Clicky isn't even translated into Estonian. StatCounter, with a large number of quite old sites, is more likely to have good coverage in smaller geographies, and they show Android clearly dominating.
Russia is an important market for Bitcoin:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-RU-monthly-201012-201112 http://getclicky.com/marketshare/ru/operating-systems/mobile/Again, divergent data. Clicky shows Android growing and iOS leading. StatCounter shows Symbian way ahead and Android growing, iOS shrinking.
So the general conclusions are:
- Source selection can change your results completely.
- Interesting longer-term markets for Bitcoin are showing a consistent trend towards Android, which is good for us.
- The situation today in mature markets like the UK and USA is Apples to lose, but unless they change the game again it seems likely they will do so - mostly their sales are keeping pace with market growth but Android sales are outpacing it, often at the expense of older devices.
I've lately been enjoying an Android 4 phone. The new GUI closes the gap with iOS in responsiveness/frame rate and slick looks, which was one of Apples key advantages. So I think these trends will become even more pronounced over the next couple of years. This is good for Bitcoin because Apples policies are very inconsistent and it's unclear if BitPak and friends will be allowed on the platform long term. Also, NFC makes for very nice mobile payments and Apple doesn't seem in a rush to support it.
