Apologies for the crummy visualization, I wish I was good enough with programming or had enough free time to visualize this accurately using raw data or a proper data visualization website (What's the best one for UNO anyway?), but...
What you have to ask yourself regarding the 33-month graph below is: *
(I'm only referencing the market cap (& thus dollar value) NOT the satoshi value. I basically ignore the satoshi value at this point because I don't have a fraction of the time needed to carefully analyze all 150+ top altcoins to find the best risk/reward probability branch. I just want somewhere strong to stash value.)a) What's a better historical indicator for UNO over the next ~15 months, the lime line (approximate moving average & orange projection), or the turquoise line (approximate 33-month average & purple projection)? That would imply whether the more likely outcome is the orange projection line, or an overall return to the mean (light turquoise projection) with fluctuations above.
b) How likely are we to revisit the green line? (Indicates an approximate peak that we've hit many times over the 33 months.)
My guesses: a) Turquoise line
b) >50%. (The green line is at ~$625,000, & when I made this the market cap was $302,000, so a >50% chance is at least a profitable bet).
Edit: Because of the (quickly derided) statement by logictense, it seems additionally important to note that I never show earlier than March 2014 because it screws with the y-axis. I should use a site that can visualize UNO using a logarithmic y-axis (again, recommendations?), but I think the first several months are irrelevant for the majority of altcoins. Everything from the most obvious scams to the most valuable altcoins show valuation madness during their first several months.
