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Author Topic: How can collapse of USD affect bitcoin?  (Read 4361 times)
Dotto
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March 23, 2014, 02:19:33 PM
 #1

Hi all,

It seems collapse of USD in mathematically unavoidable, I wonder how could it affect bitcoin.

Guess there is going to be a massive dollar inflation wave, would this skyrocket the BTC value or would it collapse it too?
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March 23, 2014, 02:23:56 PM
 #2

Hi all,

It seems collapse of USD in mathematically unavoidable, I wonder how could it affect bitcoin.

Guess there is going to be a massive dollar inflation wave, would this skyrocket the BTC value or would it collapse it too?

it would skyrocket the BTCUSD rate simply because the USD would rapidly lose purchasing power. but i don't think that's what you're asking.

would capital flood into BTC as a safe haven? or would the BTC price crash as well, as it is irrevocably tied to global financial health?

this has been an active debate lately. many on these forums believe that BTC is a good hedge against the global economy, but some posit that in the event of a real financial catastrophe like hyperinflation of the world's reserve currency, BTC would suffer. i am undecided.

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March 23, 2014, 02:26:14 PM
 #3

Hyperinflation makes people use their paper money as wallpaper, kindling, toilet paper... why wouldn't bitcoin take over in such a scenario?

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 23, 2014, 02:38:42 PM
 #4

It could put a lot of exchanges out of business I guess. More people would be trading BTC for goods than for fiat maybe.

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March 23, 2014, 02:45:35 PM
 #5

Just like all crashes seen before. BTC and the world will take some time to break away from this bad fiat.
Maybe US citizens will flee towards BTC, gold and silver making the price go sky high due to scarcity.

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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March 23, 2014, 03:27:33 PM
 #6

The USD value of BTC would go up as hell!! But if the euro would have the same value as now the euro/BTC would be the same, so the actual value of BTC would not go up.
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March 23, 2014, 03:48:26 PM
 #7

IMO value of a dollar have nothing to do with Bitcoin price.

Those are totally different things.


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March 23, 2014, 03:50:27 PM
 #8

Hyperinflation makes people use their paper money as wallpaper, kindling, toilet paper... why wouldn't bitcoin take over in such a scenario?

Because Bitcoin isn't backed by anything other than it's rate of convertability into fiat currencies.

If I could reliably convert Bitcoin into X ounces of precious metal, X gallons of Oil or X units of electrical energy, then we might be talking. Even if some government that I needed to pay taxes to required payment in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin might have a case as a 'pretender to the throne'. But as things stand, Bitcoin is nothing. It is a means of quickly transferring wealth around that works to the extent of liquidity in the market. Because the liquidity is provided almost entirely by speculators, the rate of conversion is prone to being highly volatile, thus rendering Bitcoin totally inappropriate for being used as a reliable unit of exchange.

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March 23, 2014, 04:50:36 PM
 #9

Hyperinflation makes people use their paper money as wallpaper, kindling, toilet paper... why wouldn't bitcoin take over in such a scenario?

Because Bitcoin isn't backed by anything other than it's rate of convertability into fiat currencies.

If I could reliably convert Bitcoin into X ounces of precious metal, X gallons of Oil or X units of electrical energy, then we might be talking. Even if some government that I needed to pay taxes to required payment in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin might have a case as a 'pretender to the throne'. But as things stand, Bitcoin is nothing. It is a means of quickly transferring wealth around that works to the extent of liquidity in the market. Because the liquidity is provided almost entirely by speculators, the rate of conversion is prone to being highly volatile, thus rendering Bitcoin totally inappropriate for being used as a reliable unit of exchange.
We had this argument. Many, many times just in the few months I have been here. Go reread some of the old threads.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 23, 2014, 06:41:49 PM
 #10

Hyperinflation makes people use their paper money as wallpaper, kindling, toilet paper... why wouldn't bitcoin take over in such a scenario?

Because Bitcoin isn't backed by anything other than it's rate of convertability into fiat currencies.

If I could reliably convert Bitcoin into X ounces of precious metal, X gallons of Oil or X units of electrical energy, then we might be talking. Even if some government that I needed to pay taxes to required payment in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin might have a case as a 'pretender to the throne'. But as things stand, Bitcoin is nothing. It is a means of quickly transferring wealth around that works to the extent of liquidity in the market. Because the liquidity is provided almost entirely by speculators, the rate of conversion is prone to being highly volatile, thus rendering Bitcoin totally inappropriate for being used as a reliable unit of exchange.

Bitcoin is like you said, an excellent platform to transfer wealth. Bitcoin being the vessel of transfer is unaffected by the collapse of one or more articles of value.

Bitcoin is used to transfer wealth because it's efficient. Bitcoin will remain efficient regardless of what type of transfer it facilitates...

However, the market has been manipulated by fiat currencies. After fiat collapses we will be at square 1 again, the market will assess a new value to everything; not just Bitcoin...


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March 23, 2014, 07:21:38 PM
Last edit: March 23, 2014, 07:33:08 PM by MatTheCat
 #11

We had this argument. Many, many times just in the few months I have been here. Go reread some of the old threads.

The proof will be in the pudding and we shall both witness it, most likely with very different positions in relation to Bitcoin when the crunch time comes.

Bitcoin is like you said, an excellent platform to transfer wealth. Bitcoin being the vessel of transfer is unaffected by the collapse of one or more articles of value.

Bitcoin is used to transfer wealth because it's efficient. Bitcoin will remain efficient regardless of what type of transfer it facilitates...

However, the market has been manipulated by fiat currencies. After fiat collapses we will be at square 1 again, the market will assess a new value to everything; not just Bitcoin...

Precisely. Bitcoin's main use is as a vessel of value transfer. The important thing however is not the vessel, but the cargo. Otherwise there are dozens of Shit-Coins that have copied Bitcoin's concept and improved upon it in various ways, not least of all making it more streamline. In short, if the vessel was all important, then there are better alternatives around than Bitcoin, but none of the Shit-coins are carrying the value (measured in USD) that Bitcoin is carrying. If the USD becomes worthless as in it dies a death and the world is left to look for a new means of exchange, it won't be looking towards Bitcoin as Bitcoin is just a means of wealth transfer. In times of crisis you might be tempted to swap goods of value for tins of beans, silver rounds, shotgun rounds, gasoline etc, but would you be prepared to accept a few lines of algorithmic code on a USB stick? Same principle applies on an international macro scale and I am referring to a USD extinction event here, not the isolated hyperinflation of the Outer Bulgaristani Shekkel which is exactly the sort of situation that could result in lots of wealth flowing into Bitcoin, thanks to Bitcoins easy interchangeability with the USD.

I see a digital currency on the horizon for humanity alright, but it won't be Bitcoin. It will be issued by the holders of real physical wealth, perhaps it will be Gold again, and each unit will be exchangeable for so many units in weight of the agreed upon commodity. Premined, and issued to holders of specific commodity or basket of commodity who in turn will issue it to those who offer themselves in servitude in exchange for the units of account. Every transaction recorded. Zero anonymity from controllers of the system.  As far fetched as this may sound, if the dollar dies, and it's death at some point is unavoidable then whole present day monetary paradigm is finished. The world will be in crisis and screaming and begging for some sort of stability offered by an asset backed currency. So yeah, I am a believer in both gold becoming money again at some point in the future and also in the future of crypto-currency, but I believe that the event will be accompanied by a move towards the enslavement of humanity, not liberation.

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March 23, 2014, 07:27:23 PM
 #12

If fiat paper went away...

Better yet, if the institution of Govt went away (i.e. a voluntary world), bitcoin would go to zero. There would be no use for it, because digitized commodities would be allowed to flourish and used worldwide. Noone in their right mind would choose a digital 'currency' backed by nothing over digital gold, for example.

It's quite ironic that the entity (govt) btc purports to fight against, would render btc useless if it went away.
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March 23, 2014, 07:33:01 PM
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The value of bitcoin lies in bitcoin. It is digital gold. When paper money first came about most people wouldn't touch the stuff. What value does ink on a piece of paper have? You would have to be insane to accept that instead of proper money.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 23, 2014, 07:33:08 PM
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Precisely. Bitcoin's main use is as a vessel of value transfer. The important thing however is not the vessel, but the cargo. Otherwise there are dozens of Shit-Coins that have copied Bitcoin's concept and improved upon it in various ways, not least of all making it more streamline. In short, if the vessel was all important, then there are better alternatives around than Bitcoin, but none of the Shit-coins are carrying the value (measured in USD) that Bitcoin is carrying. If the USD becomes worthless as in it dies a death and the world is left to look for a new means of exchange, it won't be looking towards Bitcoin as Bitcoin is just a means of wealth transfer. In times of crisis you might be tempted to swap goods of value for tins of beans, silver rounds, shotgun rounds, gasoline etc, but would you be prepared to accept a few lines of algorithmic code on a USB stick? Same principle applies on an international macro scale and I am referring to a USD extinction event here, not the isolated hyperinflation of the Outer Bulgaristani Shekkel which is exactly the sort of situation that could result in lots of wealth flowing into Bitcoin, thanks to Bitcoins easy interchangeability with the USD.

I think in a global fiat crisis you would be inclined to accept those lines of algorithmic code. You see; trade is an old game. International traders have always been threatened by piracy, border controls, seizure, etc... Bitcoin will be particularly useful in the post-economic collapse where the level of corruption is intensified.

I might not trade internationally, but if I know that Bitcoin is used for international trade; I'll be very inclined to accept it. Nobody will feel safe entrusting wealth to a bank in the near term and Bitcoin offers many of the benefits of a bank account.

The case of "why Bitcoin?" Bitcoin has the largest network, the most current investment, and the widest current adoption. I think it's safe to assume the current adopters are familiar with Bitcoins ability to escape capital controls, theft, counterfeit, and the list goes on.

I can see Bitcoin being very useful in the global trade arena post-fiat.


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March 23, 2014, 07:34:20 PM
Last edit: March 23, 2014, 07:51:42 PM by MatTheCat
 #15

The value of bitcoin lies in bitcoin. It is digital gold. When paper money first came about most people wouldn't touch the stuff. What value does ink on a piece of paper have? You would have to be insane to accept that instead of proper currency.

ZZZzzzz

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I think in a global fiat crisis you would be inclined to accept those lines of algorithmic code. You see; trade is an old game. International traders have always been threatened by piracy, border controls, seizure, etc... Bitcoin will be particularly useful in the post-economic collapse where the level of corruption is intensified.

I might not trade internationally, but if I know that Bitcoin is used for international trade; I'll be very inclined to accept it. Nobody will feel safe entrusting wealth to a bank in the near term and Bitcoin offers many of the benefits of a bank account.

The case of "why Bitcoin?" Bitcoin has the largest network, the most current investment, and the widest current adoption. I think it's safe to assume the current adopters are familiar with Bitcoins ability to escape capital controls, theft, counterfeit, and the list goes on.

I can see Bitcoin being very useful in the global trade arena post-fiat.

Indian tribes used to trade beads or feathers amongst each other and use those as money because the tribe chief would reliably accept them as a show of homage to his authority (taxes). But should that chief die and be replaced by some dude who don't give two craps about beads or feathers then guess what happens?

Bitcoin is the beads. The USD is the chief.

Just try using Bitcoin for any sort of trade if the chief has stopped accepting USD.

As you say, in such a scenario Bitcoin would have to be revalued but by then there will be far better alternatives to Bitcoin and no good reason not to use one of the improved alternatives.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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March 23, 2014, 07:38:47 PM
 #16

The value of bitcoin lies in bitcoin. It is digital gold. When paper money first came about most people wouldn't touch the stuff. What value does ink on a piece of paper have? You would have to be insane to accept that instead of proper currency.

ZZZzzzz

THE LEGAL AUTHORITY OF THE GOVERNMENT AND IT'S ABILITY TO TAX IT'S POPULATION!
z z z yourself. Money is whatever The Man says, yes. And value is whatever someone who will deal in it is. But as already noted, go read the old threads. Repetition is annoying.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 23, 2014, 07:44:38 PM
 #17

The value of bitcoin lies in bitcoin. It is digital gold. When paper money first came about most people wouldn't touch the stuff. What value does ink on a piece of paper have? You would have to be insane to accept that instead of proper currency.

ZZZzzzz

THE LEGAL AUTHORITY OF THE GOVERNMENT AND IT'S ABILITY TO TAX IT'S POPULATION!
z z z yourself. Money is whatever The Man says, yes. And value is whatever someone who will deal in it is. But as already noted, go read the old threads. Repetition is annoying.

Yeah ok. If The Man turns around and declares that Bitcoin is money and from now on, everyone should pay his dues to him in Bitcoin. Then and only then will Bitcoin become money.....

.....but why would The Man want to do a thing like that?

Just wait n see. Bitcoin's purpose will be to undermine and facilitate capital flight out of crisis hit economies as the US goes about strategically undermining any economy that threatens to be left standing longer than the USD. The survival of the USD will be pivotal to the survival of Bitcoin.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
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March 23, 2014, 07:49:10 PM
 #18

The value of bitcoin lies in bitcoin. It is digital gold. When paper money first came about most people wouldn't touch the stuff. What value does ink on a piece of paper have? You would have to be insane to accept that instead of proper money.

A gun to your head is the only reason why paper is used. Obviously in a VOLUNTARY world, nobody would use it. Likewise nobody would use bitcoin, because it has no intrinsic value. Commodities (oil, gold, etc) in digital form would take over completely. A few years back, E-Gold (digital gold) grew wildly popular, it had millions of users before Govt shut it down. Absent Govt, you would see BILLIONS of people using some form of E-Gold/E-Oil, etc.

Bitcoin requires the existance of the State for it to thrive.
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March 23, 2014, 07:57:05 PM
 #19

Indian tribes used to trade beads or feathers amongst each other and use those as money because the tribe chief would reliably accept them as a show of homage to his authority (taxes). But should that chief die and be replaced by some dude who don't give two craps about beads or feathers then guess what happens?

Bitcoin is the beads. The USD is the chief.

Not exactly, the beads and feathers were replaced because they weren't useful in as many markets as the USD.

Well let's consider the alternatives... Centralized digital fiat currency won't exist at first. After an economic collapse; nobody will trust the same people who just ripped off the entire world. Banks will be shunned and the population will be fending for itself.

Gold and precious metals, bartering; commodities will come back into play in a big way. Now the biggest problem historically has been piracy of international trade. You can steal wealth from a trader because you know they have a bunch of it on-board the ship. You can raid the ship and physically steal wealth easily.

Bitcoin isn't susceptible in the same way. You can't carry it away.

The advantages of Bitcoin over fiat are amazing, but remember that fiat was also advantageous over gold. Therefore, the advantages of Bitcoin over gold are even more extreme. The issue has always been trust; financial institutions are the problem. Bitcoin will shine when fiat is gone.


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All hope has died


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March 23, 2014, 07:57:26 PM
 #20

I think some of you have a gross misunderstanding of things psychologically. The crash of the USD would not only kill bitcoin, since it's primarily converted into USD to begin with, it would kill virtually every other economy on the Earth. Most of you are overlooking the very obvious fact, the world is tied to the USD.

1. USD tanks... suddenly Americans have lost purchasing power. They can no longer buy goods/services that are mostly financed by other countries. Aid to third world nations stops. Suddenly 75% of coin mining also stops because Americans cant afford energy costs. People can't afford food...

2. Lack of American investing power and consuming causes major hits to BRICK nations. BRICK nations are already suffering in near recession economies and a sudden lack of USD influx causes further depression to economies. Third world nation economies also suffer due to a lack of USD propping. People can't afford food... well people who could afford food to begin with can't afford it.

Bitcoin itself is already hugely tied to the dollar and will be for the foreseeable future. Why is that? Because Bitcoin has no use outside of the novelty. Most just don't see, that it's purely a novelty. Even those who "accept" bitcoin through one of the exchanges/store sites... are really just accepting the USD. You just don't see the go between converting the currency into USD.

Bitcoin is tied to the dollar and will be until people realize the truth. Bitcoin has no value and no use. Once people understand how to break the chains, which is to ignore the dollar completely, then Bitcoin will have real value. Bitcoin is not a medium of exchange/store of value, it's an investment tool. Anyone who thinks differently isn't looking at things for what they are. Want it to be different, then make it different.

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