How can collapse of USD affect bitcoin?

[dead_bit]

It's a pleasure debating our opposing opinions.

 - Bitcoin isn't a system built on trust. It's just math... There is no possibility of a "Bitcoin run" or "Bitcoin went bankrupt".

 - I know what fractional reserve systems are. Rather than attacking the entire system I'm focusing on a single aspect. When I consider a gold/resource based commodity as "fractional reserve" I'm telling you that people don't want to carry a coin purse around. The resource is deposited into a treasury and a note is issued to guarantee availability. You can only redeem these notes at the local treasury where the resource was deposited... Why would I accept a note to a local treasury in a different state? The only way to eliminate the "fractional reserve" aspect is to do away with paper notes. Bitcoin doesn't suffer the same issue...

 - The change will come either slowly by gradual innovation (before the collapse) or quickly from necessity. If Bitcoin is used to facilitate international trade then the incentive will be there. People don't always get paid to change the system. Sometimes people are forced to adapt out of necessity.

The guns haven't stopped anything, they stalled it. I think money is necessary; just think about it. How else could a dentist and a car salesman make a deal when the salesman has good teeth and the dentist needs a car?

The world doesn't trust dollars, the world trusted gold. The USA fleeced the world without the consent of the world. It's not going to last...

- I think Bitcoin is just as based on trust as any other currency. Bitcoin is a change of opinion away from being valueless, just like everything else.

- Under this premise Bitcoin is no different than dollars. Except that it cannot be created out of thin air, which it essentially is, except instead of a physical object you have a string of data and that is all. I have the same thing now, my dollars are strings of data on my debit card.

- I just don't see why people would gravitate to Bitcoin, it holds no advantage to any other already existing currency.

I would tend to agree, the world doesn't trust dollars, but now we're beginning to veer into a "world without America" scenario and that is a very different discussion from "the world without the dollar". I would also agree that the "guns" are more than likely pushing the world into an authoritarian government. I think the next major collapse will be the end of the free thinking groups/ideals like the bitcoin community. Hence why I hope the dollar doesn't fall, because I enjoy my freedom of speech.

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[pungopete468]

- I think Bitcoin is just as based on trust as any other currency. Bitcoin is a change of opinion away from being valueless, just like everything else.

- Under this premise Bitcoin is no different than dollars. Except that it cannot be created out of thin air, which it essentially is, except instead of a physical object you have a string of data and that is all. I have the same thing now, my dollars are strings of data on my debit card.

- I just don't see why people would gravitate to Bitcoin, it holds no advantage to any other already existing currency.

I would tend to agree, the world doesn't trust dollars, but now we're beginning to veer into a "world without America" scenario and that is a very different discussion from "the world without the dollar". I would also agree that the "guns" are more than likely pushing the world into an authoritarian government. I think the next major collapse will be the end of the free thinking groups/ideals like the bitcoin community. Hence why I hope the dollar doesn't fall, because I enjoy my freedom of speech.

 - I agree with your statement to a small extent. However, there is a subtle difference between trusting Bitcoin and trusting the dollar. Trust in every other currency is only trust in the issuing party. The central party is the weak link because people are unpredictable. Bitcoin is predictable and trusting in math is more reliable than trusting in a person. The trust people place in Bitcoin is earned, the trust in central currency is given.

 - Bitcoin shares several of the advantages of fiat with the strong property rights of a gold standard. The data on your debit card is similar to Bitcoin. Plenty of people consider those strings of data valuable. You can have the convenience of our current system without the counter party risk. The problem I'm illustrating is a result of electronically transferring a tangible form of wealth. Bitcoin is redeemable anywhere as opposed to a paper note backing an asset where it can only be redeemed at a specific location relative to the asset it backs. The only way to achieve this with a currency backed by a commodity is to use a fractional reserve system.

 - The advantages are different from person to person. I can think of several advantages to real life situations. It might not be advantageous to you specifically but that's not an accurate representation for everybody else.

I think the collapse will be hell. I think it won't be the end of free thinking but that would be the cost of losing the struggle... There are guns on both sides... I hope the dollar doesn't fail but I also hope that an Asteroid never hits the earth, and humanity survives long enough to find life elsewhere in the Universe. Hope is important, but it's not enough without action.

[MatTheCat]

People wouldn't be able to exchange USD for BTC, so bad.

Ill trade you a quarter bitcoin for that nice boat of yours.

See how easy that was? No dollar or banker needed.

HA FOOL!

That quarter Bitcoin is now worth two boats!

Oh Shit, no wait a minute, now it is only worth half a boat! Hey, give me my fkn boat back!

Wait!? What is this?, Now the exchange won't give me my money until I prove where my Bitcoin came from!

Fuck them, I will just cash it out on LocalBitcoins......"How much premium was that you are charging!? Did you just say 20% under spot!?"

Holy shit!

Next time, just wire the funds into my account buddy, ok?

[pungopete468]

People wouldn't be able to exchange USD for BTC, so bad.

Ill trade you a quarter bitcoin for that nice boat of yours.

See how easy that was? No dollar or banker needed.

HA FOOL!

That quarter Bitcoin is now worth two boats!

Oh Shit, no wait a minute, now it is only worth half a boat! Hey, give me my fkn boat back!

Wait!? What is this?, Now the exchange won't give me my money until I prove where my Bitcoin came from!

Fuck them, I will just cash it out on LocalBitcoins......"How much premium was that you are charging!? Did you just say 20% under spot!?"

Holy shit!

Next time, just wire the funds into my account buddy, ok?

This is a fiat world where everything is manipulated. The current behavior isn't really a good measure for the hypothetical behavior in this scenario.

[dead_bit]

People wouldn't be able to exchange USD for BTC, so bad.

Ill trade you a quarter bitcoin for that nice boat of yours.

See how easy that was? No dollar or banker needed.

HA FOOL!

That quarter Bitcoin is now worth two boats!

Oh Shit, no wait a minute, now it is only worth half a boat! Hey, give me my fkn boat back!

Wait!? What is this?, Now the exchange won't give me my money until I prove where my Bitcoin came from!

Fuck them, I will just cash it out on LocalBitcoins......"How much premium was that you are charging!? Did you just say 20% under spot!?"

Holy shit!

Next time, just wire the funds into my account buddy, ok?

This is a fiat world where everything is manipulated. The current behavior isn't really a good measure for the hypothetical behavior in this scenario.

Because Bitcoin is never manipulated?

- I agree with your statement to a small extent. However, there is a subtle difference between trusting Bitcoin and trusting the dollar. Trust in every other currency is only trust in the issuing party. The central party is the weak link because people are unpredictable. Bitcoin is predictable and trusting in math is more reliable than trusting in a person. The trust people place in Bitcoin is earned, the trust in central currency is given.

 - Bitcoin shares several of the advantages of fiat with the strong property rights of a gold standard. The data on your debit card is similar to Bitcoin. Plenty of people consider those strings of data valuable. You can have the convenience of our current system without the counter party risk. The problem I'm illustrating is a result of electronically transferring a tangible form of wealth. Bitcoin is redeemable anywhere as opposed to a paper note backing an asset where it can only be redeemed at a specific location relative to the asset it backs. The only way to achieve this with a currency backed by a commodity is to use a fractional reserve system.

 - The advantages are different from person to person. I can think of several advantages to real life situations. It might not be advantageous to you specifically but that's not an accurate representation for everybody else.

I think the collapse will be hell. I think it won't be the end of free thinking but that would be the cost of losing the struggle... There are guns on both sides... I hope the dollar doesn't fail but I also hope that an Asteroid never hits the earth, and humanity survives long enough to find life elsewhere in the Universe. Hope is important, but it's not enough without action.

- I don't think Bitcoin has yet earned the trust people are attempting to attribute to it.

Hmm other than that I basically agree with everything your saying.

[TERA]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...



If anyone is wonder why my sentiments have been annoyingly bearish over the past month, it is not just because of charts and squiggly lines.

[pungopete468]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...

Bitcoin doesn't need to skyrocket. It just needs to remain useful... Everything is going to collapse across the board and the market will re-evaluate everything. There will be a chaotic period of price discovery and nothing is exempt.

When the collapse happens you will have no more wealth, gold coins will be worth no more than the goods your grocer is willing to trade you for it. Where should somebody place wealth when everything is going to collapse? The gold standard doesn't work. Everybody knows that... Guns and ammo are a great investment but they will be more susceptible to theft after a collapse... Not everybody can buy land property or real-estate.

Basically, it doesn't matter if you have a basement full of gold bars or a million Bitcoins. Your wealth will be redefined over an unknown period of time after the fiat system crumbles. Bitcoin will survive, gold will survive, people will survive and barter. The storm will pass and the world will pick itself up, dust itself off, and move along.

Even though Bitcoin will lose value immediately during/after a collapse it will be revalued. Bitcoin is extremely useful in trade, especially international trade where the journey might be treacherous or risky. Your pockets can't be picked of Bitcoin, your Bitcoins can't easily be swiped, and you won't need to hire private security to protect your life savings.

When the collapse happens, and I think it will be soon; move your wealth into the things necessary to protect your life first, then make a choice between gold and Bitcoin. I believe my wealth will be safer in Bitcoin over gold. I can't protect physical gold from theft as easily as I can protect Bitcoin from theft... Plus I completely expect the governments around the world will appropriate as much civilian gold as they can; just like under FDR. After the world re-establishes a fractional reserve gold standard, Bitcoin will be exchanged for that currency just as it is for fiat... The advantages of Bitcoin will be even greater than they are today.

I think it's a situation where everybody will be forced to choose between two terrible situations; nobody will be preserving their wealth in the near term either way...

We'll be living to witness this historical event. Nobody knows how it will play out for certain.

[Ibian]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...



If anyone is wonder why my sentiments have been annoyingly bearish over the past month, it is not just because of charts and squiggly lines.

How did i know tera would be a negative nancy 

Don't listen to bankers you idiot. And I'll bet any amount you like that the price will not have gone to double digits when your 45 days are up.

[counter]

This is a very good question you ask.  I think that it would be uncharted territory for bitcoin and for the rest of the world.  In many ways I can see it as a good thing for bitcoin but not for the rest of the world that would be experiencing some serious unrest in my mind.

[Erdogan]

USD will go down in hyperinflation, but it might be the last one standing.

Bitcoin might be too late to come as an alternative. Depends on bitcoin usage expansion and the timeframe of USD fall.

The PTSB (powers that shouldn't be) might think up an alternative fiat some time in the future. It could even be a centralized fiat cryptocoin.


Here is a fun fact from the money history. (I couldn't be bothered to find references for this now, do it yourself or disregard it as a fairytale). At some point in time and space, the currency was so debased (think silver coins with a low silver content), that a single coin bought almost nothing. It was custom to use a bag (purse) to hold a number of coins, and exchange the bag. The receiver would not normally open the purse to count the coins, because he knew that the next person would also not open it. Therefore the fact that the number of coins could be one or two short of the standard was not important.

This is analogous to the fact that some dollar bills are fake, but you don't check each bill thoroughly, because you know that the next guy doesn't either.

Now the point of this long story: The bitcoin network does not have to be available to everybody at all times, for bitcoin to be universally useful. Fixed amount of coins, like bills, could be created on a sheet of paper with the secret under a fold. This could be used as money, and someone accepting it could check if he wanted. Else anybody could just accept it and hope that most of his bills are loaded. The issuer could even date and sign it for later reference.

So yes, bitcoin could be useful money for everybody in case of an epic fiat fail.

The value would of course also rise epically.

[MatTheCat]

How did i know tera would be a negative nancy 

Don't listen to bankers you idiot. And I'll bet any amount you like that the price will not have gone to double digits when your 45 days are up.

Negative Nancy = A beacon of pragmatic realism amongst a sea of naive delusionalism?

[Ibian]

How did i know tera would be a negative nancy 

Don't listen to bankers you idiot. And I'll bet any amount you like that the price will not have gone to double digits when your 45 days are up.

Negative Nancy = A beacon of pragmatic realism amongst a sea of naive delusionalism?

It's an open bet. Double digits in less than two weeks?

[windjc]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...



If anyone is wonder why my sentiments have been annoyingly bearish over the past month, it is not just because of charts and squiggly lines.

You have a banker friend? WTF?

How many guns and much land did you buy for the zombie apocalypse?

[stylin]

USD will go down in hyperinflation, but it might be the last one standing.

Bitcoin might be too late to come as an alternative. Depends on bitcoin usage expansion and the timeframe of USD fall.

I agree with you. A lot is riding on when exactly this complete and total collapse comes. If it comes next year bitcoin is probably screwed. If it comes decades from now, who knows what inroads cryptocurrency will have made into society. Kids these days are growing up with technology, it's not hard to imagine when they are adults could trust it just like they can trust hard assets like gold.

I don't think complete collapse is due for a while though... people are just satisfied enough that nobody is even thinking of a revolution these days. The gov't and Wall Street are playing it very smart... slowly and gradually bleed the American citizen instead of taking it all at once. You put a frog in a pan and start heating it up...

I believe collapse will happen decades from now. We have a bit of time IMO

Money has to be either:

• Something of inherent and reliable value. (gold, silver, cigarettes, bullets)
• A unit of account backed by the authority of an authority with tax raising powers.

Bitcoin is neither of those. Bitcoin is merely a vessel or potential vessel of any given unit of exchange which enough people are prepared to reliably swap for the Bitcoin. It is not about the Bitcoin, it is about what the Bitcoin can be swapped over for.

Bitcoin (or cryptocurrency in general) could fit into the first option. Like I said before it depends on the timeframe of collapse. Newer generations are more and more trusting of technology... it's not too much of a stretch to believe that 30 years from now people will be capable of considering mathematical algorithms and lines of code as "inherently valuable."

[Ibian]

2020.

[stylin]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...

I doubt a financial collapse like '08/'09 would affect the price of bitcoin that much. Maybe it would lower bitcoin prices like it did to gold prices during '08/'09. We are headed for another stock market crash and a recession in the the next couple of years (and for the poor/middle class the recession is still not over) but absolutely nothing catastrophic will happen in the next few years.

[damnek]

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"? 

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...

I doubt a financial collapse like '08/'09 would affect the price of bitcoin that much. Maybe it would lower bitcoin prices like it did to gold prices during '08/'09. We are headed for another stock market crash and a recession in the the next couple of years (and for the poor/middle class the recession is still not over) but absolutely nothing catastrophic will happen in the next few years.

It's ironic that this "banker" makes that comment about bitcoin, which was in fact born out of the 08/09 crisis (I'm referring to satoshi's famous genesis block message).

[byronbb]

The world will see many weaker currencies fail before the USD does. China and Russia seem to be getting friendly and are flirting with dropping their US T-Bills and/or dealing for oil in a currency other than the USD.

[wobber]

Everyone who wants USD or other currency to crash so their bitcoin stash gets more powerful, it's simply retarded.

USD crash would bring much turmoil and might make bitcoin seem a joke (that consumes too many resources)

So stop saying / wanting that.

[wobber]

Money has to be either:

• Something of inherent and reliable value. (gold, silver, cigarettes, bullets)
• Unit of account backed by the authority

Bitcoin is neither.

Bitcoin is vessel on any given unit of exchange

If you tend to be conservative in your thinking you will not be able to see progress. Bitcoin is money. It has inherent value (will ever be, electricity is used to mine them, this gives it value and we cannot clone them). Authority that backs bitcoin up is the community.