US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[Vishnu.Reang]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating. Recent opinion polls show that Trump is now leading in swing states such as Florida and Arizona. But then again, these two states can't guarantee him a victory. He needs to win states such as Pennsylvania. At least in PA, Joe Biden is still leading comfortably. In the end, everything will come down to turnout. If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily, then they may stay at home and make things difficult for Biden/Harris.

[Timelord2067]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating. Recent opinion polls show that Trump is now leading in swing states such as Florida and Arizona. But then again, these two states can't guarantee him a victory. He needs to win states such as Pennsylvania. At least in PA, Joe Biden is still leading comfortably. In the end, everything will come down to turnout. If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily, then they may stay at home and make things difficult for Biden/Harris.

I heard an opinion piece on the BBC World Service overnight, the Republicans (who normally predominantly vote postal) are voting early in person while the Democrats (who normally vote early in person) are lodging postal votes so it will be interesting what kinds of voter turn out there are on the day - especially given each state has it's own laws on how ballots are conducted in their states.  (That and the threat of challenges to the postal voting via the courts) 

What happened in 2016 may be repeating.

Agreed - people might be saying they're not voting Trump, but will do so anyway.

[FinneysTrueVision]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating.

Agreed - people might be saying they're not voting Trump, but will do so anyway.

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

[Timelord2067]

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

In a little over ten or twelve days we'll know one way or the other whether or not those people who've been polled this time around were being coy about who they're going to vote for or not as the case may be.

I'm only an outside observer not living in the US, but to my outside eyes it looks as though the polls will be wrong again.

[STT]

Polls only estimate and the process of a poll doesnt match the election so its an indicator along with a few others.   Hilary Clinton was especially unpopular with some parts of the voting population which made swing voters have greater bias then normal is how I take that.   In politics they especially avoid answering difficult questions or controversial issues to avoid losing votes like that, some things they cant dodge but really they are trying to collect a vote from everybody to some extent.   From what Ive seen Biden is trying to do that, he resembles that side of politics quite often and we may not like the question dodging or ambigiuility but its done for a reason; my take is Biden is far less upsetting to the middle ground.

If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily,

They dont, I think the hornets nest got a good shake.  Its about the middle ground or undecided/new voters perhaps, I'll go with Mark Twain we rarely exactly repeat.

[bryant.coleman]

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

Well... this may be true. I don't think that Trump is in the same position in the rust belt states, as he was in 2016. He has a lot of support in the suburban areas and from white women. The rural and male voters are with him, but most of the other demographic groups have shifted to Democrats. To put it frankly, I don't think that he'll be able to carry any of the rust-belt states this time.

[ice098]

Polls only estimate and the process of a poll doesnt match the election so its an indicator along with a few others.   Hilary Clinton was especially unpopular with some parts of the voting population which made swing voters have greater bias then normal is how I take that.   In politics they especially avoid answering difficult questions or controversial issues to avoid losing votes like that, some things they cant dodge but really they are trying to collect a vote from everybody to some extent.   From what Ive seen Biden is trying to do that, he resembles that side of politics quite often and we may not like the question dodging or ambigiuility but its done for a reason; my take is Biden is far less upsetting to the middle ground.

If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily,

They dont, I think the hornets nest got a good shake.  Its about the middle ground or undecided/new voters perhaps, I'll go with Mark Twain we rarely exactly repeat.

Polls will only determined the supporters of each candidates but this polls doesn't mean a 100% so sure that if the one who has the highest poll rate will surely gonna win in election result. Sometimes polls mean a satisfactional rate of people towards the public service of a candidate that has been in position or recently been in position or been in position. In terms of Biden and Trumph maybe the poll rates has been favored in Trumph but we can't tell what will gonna happen in the election.

[covfefe_]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

As a result of the electoral college system, the results from 3-4 states will decide the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections. In terms of importance, these states are: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Trump needs to win at least 3 out of these 4. If he loses 2 of these states, then Biden wins. I would even say that the winner of Pennsylvania will decide the outcome. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, then he becomes the POTUS. If Trump wins the state, then he gets 4 more years.

[celot]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

Now there is no such thing as media with upholding their code of ethics, there is no more neutral term for media in any country. There is always a partiality for one of the contestants who pays them a high price. Likewise, what happened in the United States where at the time of the election five years ago between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton many media supported him but the results were nil during the vote and Donald Trump became the winner. Even though the media polls support Joe Bidden, it is likely that the same thing will happen in the United States election this time, Donald Trump will win easily, especially since he is one of the controversial presidents who have no compromise at all with China.

[Juggy777]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

As a result of the electoral college system, the results from 3-4 states will decide the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections. In terms of importance, these states are: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Trump needs to win at least 3 out of these 4. If he loses 2 of these states, then Biden wins. I would even say that the winner of Pennsylvania will decide the outcome. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, then he becomes the POTUS. If Trump wins the state, then he gets 4 more years.

@covfefe_ according to Guardian article Biden is leading in the national polls, but they have cautioned that these polls cannot be trusted and therefore people should take these polls with a pinch of salt. Also if we were to take a hypothetical situation and assume that these polls are right, then Biden definitely would win by a huge margin, but in that scenario can anyone confirm that Trump will peacefully hand over the power to Biden? (as he’s already giving signs that he won’t but what do you’ll think?).

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/trump-wont-commit-to-peaceful-transfer-of-power-if-he-loses-the-election.html

[emrecemsan]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

[erikoy]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with you. Trump here had already been influencial since he had the position already and he could use it as his advantage as a current or incumbent president. Biden may have good support too from the people but not really like Trump.

Here in our place the election happen with some sort of cheating. Like there is a recorded conversation from the comelec chair and that signs a possible manipulation of the voting result. So sad that it was done by a former president or was even elected but ousted after they get compromised of their doings which is to sabotage the result of the National election.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I have not heard any convincing theories as to why some people seem so certain that Trump will win. He has a very low approval rating.

Biden might not be the best candidate but he is certainly better than Clinton and is polling several percentage points higher than she was at this point. Last election you couldn't turn on the news without hearing about Clinton's emails. She was also not seen as a very genuine person. We've also seen in the midterm elections that the Republicans did not do very well.

I don't think that a Biden win is guaranteed but when I look at it rationally most of the evidence seems to point in that direction.

[bryant.coleman]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I would definitely agree on that. Biden is a weaker candidate when compared to Hillary. But that can be beneficial for him in a way. Back in 2016, Hillary polarized the electorate. The polarization is still there, but not at the same level.

BTW, I have noticed some interesting changes in the poll situation. Nationally Biden remains well ahead of Trump, and the ratings for both the candidates have been stable. But the race has changed its course in some of the battle-ground states. And the outcome from these states will decide who will be the next president.

For example, Biden was leading from Florida and North Carolina until now. But now many polls are showing Trump in the lead. Also, according to data from Hawkfish, the Democrat advantage from postal voting is being reduced heavily as the Republican voters are flocking to do early voting. Check this:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

 

[jademaxsuy]

<snip>

So what really is Biden stand against Trump? I see other posts and replies that Biden has high chance of winning compare to Trump for he had greater support from the community. Others are stating the opposite too because Trump has greater support of community.

Are there any surveys that could be trusted on giving results? There are platform already to be use in betting this presidential event that could participate on. Actually there is a shared links here that are also open for betting on this presidential election.

[MWesterweele]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with you. Trump here had already been influencial since he had the position already and he could use it as his advantage as a current or incumbent president. Biden may have good support too from the people but not really like Trump.

Here in our place the election happen with some sort of cheating. Like there is a recorded conversation from the comelec chair and that signs a possible manipulation of the voting result. So sad that it was done by a former president or was even elected but ousted after they get compromised of their doings which is to sabotage the result of the National election.

That is what powers can do. They can manipulate the possible result and even controlled it. They are who in the currently elected and in position right now has a more advantage than the incumbent candidate. Though the success of one incumbent were solely depend upon the vote of the people if they were satisfied on the service that the president pay or not, i do believe also that if you have money can buy whatever you want even the vote of the people, and that's what we called vote buying.

[bitgolden]

People are forgetting that before 2016 we never had a Trump presidency, nobody knew what would happen and people hated DNC for picking Hillary over Bernie when Bernie was the one who should have been nominated, it is the same right now as well since Bernie got a lot more money and a lot more supporters but Biden won yet he is not hated as much as Hillary.

The stark difference is, people who were progressive left leaved the election in 2016 empty, there was about 5% from the whole nation that literally voted either other party or absentee just as a protest against DNC, none of them are doing that right now.

Plus, we should also realize that there are more people ALREADY VOTED right now than people who voted for Trump, they are driving in herds to vote to get rid of him. I am not only saying Trump will lose, but I will say this; he will lose by a record breaking difference unseen in decades.

[tyz]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I agree with you that Biden is also a weak candidate like Clinton. In the spring, I would have said that Trump will definitely win. But his handling of Corona and the subsequent economic crisis will mean that Biden will win. I'm pretty sure about it. I may be wrong, but if you use purely objective factors, then it shouldn't be enough for Trump to win.

[emrecemsan]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I agree with you that Biden is also a weak candidate like Clinton. In the spring, I would have said that Trump will definitely win. But his handling of Corona and the subsequent economic crisis will mean that Biden will win. I'm pretty sure about it. I may be wrong, but if you use purely objective factors, then it shouldn't be enough for Trump to win.

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.