US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[STT]

US 2020 Elections

3 debates with first in just two days,  Try to post any relevant data, link, tweet that could swing odds.    I'm finding some pretty surprising polls still but I dont believe in the absolute accuracy of polls, they are more of a gauge hence why the more data we have the better.

Bit of a straw poll this one, influenced by the target of the email.  Alot of those traders receiving the email must be republican is my take from that one because it would seem biased but still interesting to see.

More composed data showing a Biden win though again I'm not seeing a sample size, etc.  My simple strategy is to take the underdog bet while either side presents as such, 37% odds for Biden would be worth taking without too much thought.

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[DoublerHunter]

^ Probably the odds will favor into the former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee. He has a lot of votes according to the survey, but this will not give any guarantee on his winning. We know that Press Donald Trump was on his position and probably he can easily be used that strategy by on his own benefits. Nevertheless, if you want to place your bet at ( https://22bet.com/line/Politics/ ), do it now on this gambling site that has political betting. Very interesting match, you can watch on your television too.

[pixie85]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

[aesma]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

[Ryker1]

Well, I am not from the country of the US but I have a little idea how Trump managed the US country under his control, --and now people will take decide if they will continue to accept Trump again or not. As I see the data gave above, Joe Biden has got a doubled result compared to the score of Donald Trump.
This could perhaps a very interesting game if you gamble to them, we really don't know who will be the next president of America but I smell that it is Joe Biden since he is people's choice.

[Timelord2067]

I heard on the radio just this morning the President Trump will likely challenge any returns via the courts (especially postal votes etc) so the battle after the battle is yet to begin as I doubt there will be a clear majority of voters choosing one candidate over the other in less that 40 days.

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It's mandated in the US Constitution that the new President *must* be sworn in at noon on the given day for the smooth transition of power to occur (unles it's a formality re-election)

[goaldigger]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

He must accept the result and Trump is more confident to win again, well I don't have much ideas about these two but considering the situation in USA right now, maybe they need a more good leader to step up again.

The result will surprise us and we don't know how people will react if Biden win, or if Trump win again. Few more weeks and we will witness another history on US, I'll bet on Biden to win this time a fresh leadership towards the greatness of a great nation.

[Juggy777]

I heard on the radio just this morning the President Trump will likely challenge any returns via the courts (especially postal votes etc) so the battle after the battle is yet to begin as I doubt there will be a clear majority of voters choosing one candidate over the other in less that 40 days.

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It's mandated in the US Constitution that the new President *must* be sworn in at noon on the given day for the smooth transition of power to occur (unles it's a formality re-election)

@aesma it’s quiet possible that Trump may challenge the results in the court, and that’s why it’s important for the odds provider to offer clarity as to what will they do if Trump challenges the elections results in court. Furthermore if they choose to void the bets then what’s the point of placing the bets, hence before you’ll place your bets make sure your provider answers this question. Lastly Biden is currently leading by a huge margin, and I’m personally starting to feel that he’ll be winning it from this stage.

Sources:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-23/trump-refuses-to-commit-to-a-peaceful-transfer-of-power

https://www.vox.com/2020/9/27/21458451/biden-trump-september-polling-history

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/23/trump-is-counting-supreme-court-help-him-steal-election/

[Ucy]

Interesting.
I don't really follow politic but I think something like this would probably be nice if it's arranged in such a way that polls are sampled regularly, randomly, fairly etc then results are hidden and people bet on them. Or people could just bet (bets hidden) then you sample.
 It'll need to be fool-proof to avoid abuses. And something like that would work great on decentralized network/tech.
I will prefer samplers working individually around the country with live cameras or something

[erikoy]

It seems like Running candidate for presidential Joe Biden has higher odds here compared to the incumbent that if data in the presented pictures are accurate. However, in every elections the results are always unexpected. Here in our place a celebrity running for a senator position then being in a case of plunder even gets into prison with his budots dance ads in tv network made him win in senatorial candidate. It was unexpected that I thought people know how to vote but they don't because they only vote the candidate according to their popularity and not their works, skills and platform.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

Trump never said that he'll not accept the result. He said that he will not allow the democrats to rig the election process through fraudulent ballots. Both Trump and Biden teams have already recruited dozens of lawyers, anticipating a long legal battle during the counting process. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have a history of manipulating the postal ballots and therefore these precautions are required at least in the swing states such as PA and FL.

[dothebeats]

Biden's social media campaign seem to sway most of the Republicans in favor of the former VP, though IMO those sentiments expressed via Twitter and Facebook isn't really enough to gauge the actual happenings on the actual voting situations. All I know is, whoever wins on this election, there'll never be a smooth transition of power, and the loser will surely contest the result and would ask for recounts, and if that didn't happen, I'm pretty sure more riots and more chaos will occur within the US.

Anyways, most of the attention right now is focused on Trump's taxes and his 'alleged' abuse of legal loopholes to gain more instead of paying the Federal government his share of the pie. This is really big of an argument and we'll see how this plays out on the upcoming debate on the 29th.

[avikz]

I seem to have found a forecast which is entirely different than OP. Even though a sample size is not given but it seems pretty interesting to me,

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

According to this report, Biden will outnumber Trump in upcoming presidential election. Their model predicts the Biden has 85% chance of winning the election!

[notblox1]

Most of the forecasts and polls don't mean anything until first debate in few days.
Good luck americans if you vote for Joe Biden after all his weird comments, like this for example where he claimed he was elected for Senate 180 years ago  :
https://twitter.com/Not_the_Bee/status/1310027749768278023

[bryant.coleman]

Most of the forecasts and polls don't mean anything until first debate in few days.
Good luck americans if you vote for Joe Biden after all his weird comments, like this for example where he claimed he was elected for Senate 180 years ago  :
https://twitter.com/Not_the_Bee/status/1310027749768278023

What do you really expect from a 78-year old, who is suffering from all sorts of health issues? If he wins the election, then he will be a puppet and Kamala Harris will be the real president. Anyway, if he passes away before the end of his term, Kamala will be promoted as the president. Given her ultra-left leaning, that will destroy the United States once and forever.

The presidential election of 2020 is not between Trump and Biden. In reality it is Trump vs Kamala.

[hd49728]

Where are those 1400 gamblers come from? I mean how about their SES (social-economic status). From the site, votes for Biden are overwhelmed the total votes for Trump.

If results of first debate and of the President election ends like the current gambling order stats, Biden will win all. It is a huge if and in the last President Election, Trump made a good flip at very end for the campaign. This year, he is a President and has more power in hands to run more powerful campaigns in short late period before the election.

[bbc.reporter]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

[Darker45]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

I think the betting odds would be more accurate than opinion polls, especially in the long run. The opening odds will be less accurate. That's generally coming from sportsbooks analysts. But once the odds are released and people are now beginning to talk while putting their money where their mouth is, I guess the results would reflect more accurately than the ones coming from opinion polls.

Anyway, the first debate has been through. I don't think the opinions have changed a lot. Both men appeared as if they weren't able to convince the other man's supporters to jump ship. I've only watched highlights and my impression is that they're almost of the same feather.

[bryant.coleman]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

Back in 2016, the pollsters faced a lot of issues because the Trump supporters (especially in the rust-belt states) would not reveal their voting intention. They now claim that their new methodology takes this factor in to account. But now they have to deal with additional X factors. First of all, no one really knows whether the low turnout (due to COVID 19) is going to hurt any one candidate more than the other. And secondly, the society has got polarized as a result of the BLM movement and the associated rioting.

[Cnut237]

Trump never said that he'll not accept the result.

No, but it looks extremely likely based on his past behaviour. Has he ever conceded defeat on anything in his life? Has he ever admitted he's lost in even the most minor contest? Now put him in the most high-profile 2-way contest on the planet, with billions of people watching the result.
If the results say he's lost, I think it's likely he'll take it to court. If the courts decide he's lost, I'm not sure what his next move will be... but he's unlikely to gracefully concede that he has been beaten.