US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[adamvp]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

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[casperBGD]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

yeah, Biden overturn PA, and this seems to be the end for Trump hopes, there is 5% votes more to count, but the trend is obvious and could end up as really good advantage for Biden, i do not expect that PA will go back into Trump, and as someone already pointed out, Decision Desk called Biden as new president

[johhnyUA]

I think the total uncounted votes from US Army are not big but if anyone can give source link to check, it will be interesting.

As i know, there no such information, because soldiers in USA (the same as in Israel) returning to home on elections to vote (some kind of vacation) so there no need for special places for them. And also, as i remember vote of people from another countries or aircraft carriers (which is on their raid) just counting to the whole number of people to the state where soldiers living.

Maybe i'm wrong, but this what i read about it.

[FinneysTrueVision]

The race is over for Trump. He underperformed in the latest batch of votes in Arizona. Biden will increase his lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Georgia by 1585. In Nevada he doubled his lead over Trump.

Anyone here know where to check total votes from US Army? I would like to know vote by mails from US army. Trump is anti-war in his presidency so if the number of vote by mails from US Army is big enough, he can make a flip at 90 minute of the election. This very spinning ending will happen if Biden won't be able to leave Trump behind far enough, Trump still can hope from US Army votes.

I think the total uncounted votes from US Army are not big but if anyone can give source link to check, it will be interesting.

They've already counted most military ballots. Today is the deadline for outstanding ballots to arrive in Georgia and still be counted. There could potentially be enough votes that arrive today for Trump to win the state but it probably won't matter. He's too far behind in other states.

[bitbunnny]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

It seems so. It was tight race and it's still not over yet. Anyway, everyone who bet had almost equal chances to win so from the betting side that was good. Votes are still being counted but as I read news that are coming it looks like it's decided and that US is going to step into changes.

[nikola22]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

there are no doubts that Joe Biden is the new US president. all Trump needs is to go away peacefully and without and scandal. if you lose you should do it with dignity. and congtats to all who made their bets on Biden.

[figmentofmyass]

The race is over for Trump. He underperformed in the latest batch of votes in Arizona. Biden will increase his lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Georgia by 1585. In Nevada he doubled his lead over Trump.

it sure looks that way. betfair punters are now pricing trump's chances at 3-4%.

it's been a roller coaster though. i remember seeing his chances as high as 70% on election night, when the count in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania were temporarily in his favor.

i expected that any close election would end with recount/lawsuit drama, and we'll see that unfold in the coming weeks i'm sure, but the chances of a reversal via that route are slim to none IMO.

[NotATether]

I took Joe Biden odds of winning at x1.45 before the race began, anticipating this would be a quick one-day race, and I kind of regret that I betted too early and didn’t wait for the odds to go up. Just the day after I placed my bet, his odds went up to x1.65, and there was even a time when I could’ve got it at x2.9 when Trump was leading in all of the swing states. I wouldn’t have been afraid to place a bet then. But hey at least I effectively won something, it’s just not as big as I wanted it to be.

[fullhdpixel]

I do not understand why there are places that still takes bets, like what are they even trying to achieve at this point? We know Biden won, there is no doubt about that, even if one state turns to trump which looks like not going to happen, that still means Biden wins, hell Biden takes Wisconsin and Michigan and he would be enough, there is really no need for sportsbooks to still take bets.

Maybe they are hoping that people would put a lot of money and they have low odds so they would pay back little but in case of some supreme court or anything type of deal, trump could win a court case for fraud vote and get the presidency, which we all know won't happen because there is no fraud votes at all, everything is legit, just because people voted by mail doesn't mean anyone rigged the system.

[proTECH77]

 Democratic candidate, Joe Biden is leading the incubent president Donald Trump slightly. Many supporter of Biden already celebrating in advance as the believe  their candidate will replace Trump in the white house.
I think there is still hope for Donald Trump to win the election if he can win the remaining state to gap Joe Biden. Many US citizens voted massively for Democratic candidate Joe Biden to win the election because they believe on him so much that he will be more better than Trump.

[bisdak40]

^^ got my bet settled already and it's a lose, does this mean Biden was proclaimed the new President in the USA already?

I like Trump to win the election as he is not interfering with my country's politics unlike Obama.   

[STT]

That bet settling means they have zero fear of having to pay out twice because it reversed back to favour the other candidate.   Statistically it becomes almost impossible at some point and I think we're there though I've not double checked recent counts thats normally how it goes.   My bet hasnt settled, I made a few yep neither the winning nor losing is showing just now but maybe tomorrow.

Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024

I cant remember anyone coming back from a full defeat, only nominee type failure do they come back.  So for example Romney wont be back in 4 years with somehow his vindication and dislike of Trump.    You'd get some big odds for that bet I'd hope, I'd like to see Harris bet for 2024 as thats quite possible as Biden has to be one of the oldest to serve though mostly I think he will tick over another 4 years ok.

Soon as my bets settles or possibly sooner, I'll close the thread.  Maybe we'll be betting on the Senate result in January as that could be quite a big deal for deciding the power shift.

[Timelord2067]

Joe Biden to become next US president, beating Donald Trump, according to multiple network electoral college projections

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-08/us-election-joe-biden-beats-president-donald-trump-networks-say/12859010

Joe Biden is set to become the next president of the United States, according to the decision desks of multiple US networks.
Key points:

    Joe Biden has beaten Donald Trump to become the 46th President of the United States
    Mr Trump has not conceded defeat, claiming the election was "far from over"
    Supporters of Mr Biden are celebrating around the country with car honks and fireworks

CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have called the state of Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for the Democratic candidate, meaning he has enough votes in the electoral college for victory over Donald Trump.

Mr Biden said in a statement: "With the campaign over, it's time to put the anger and the harsh rhetoric behind us and come together as a nation."

    "We are the United States of America … And there's nothing we can't do, if we do it together."

Mr Biden made no mention of his opponent, President Donald Trump, who has not conceded the race.

Further reading can be found here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-08/us-election-joe-biden-beats-president-donald-trump-networks-say/12859010


I would expect gambling sites will start paying out fairly quickly.

[Vishnu.Reang]

So it took almost 3-4 days to call the elections in favor of Biden. The impression that we got before the elections was that it would be a landslide for Biden and he may end up with close to 400 electoral votes. But Trump probably had a lot of "hidden supporters" and only the Trafalgar Group correctly predicted the support level for Trump. In the end, Trump lose by a whisker, but he helped to maintain the GOP majority in senate. In the House also, the GOP put up an improved performance.

[figmentofmyass]

So it took almost 3-4 days to call the elections in favor of Biden. The impression that we got before the elections was that it would be a landslide for Biden and he may end up with close to 400 electoral votes.

i wouldn't say that. the polls were far closer than 2016, and the betting markets favored biden only 2:1 heading into election day. fivethirtyeight only gave trump a 10% chance, but that wasn't because they expected a landslide (victory by overwhelming margin) but just because trump was too weak in a handful of important swing states.

^^ got my bet settled already and it's a lose, does this mean Biden was proclaimed the new President in the USA already?

I like Trump to win the election as he is not interfering with my country's politics unlike Obama.  

betfair is still giving 20:1 odds on trump.

he is pursuing recounts in every state he can legally. based on historical data alone, the chances of the election results being overturned based on a recount is somewhere in the realm of ~0.05%---probably even lower actually since the turnout was high. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/joe-biden-donald-trump-us-election-lawsuits-recount-supreme-court

Between 2000 and 2019, there were 5,778 statewide elections and 31 statewide recounts, according to FairVote, a voting reform group. Three of those recounts resulted in a reversal of the results. FairVote found that margin shifts are usually smaller in recounts with a high number of votes cast and presidential elections usually have the highest turnout.

at these odds, it's still pretty tempting to bet against trump.

[STT]

20 to 1 is just taking advantage of people who dont understand statistically its less then 1% probable Trump can reverse this not just in one state but the multiple required to turn the overall count.  Odds could be 2000 to 1 and I'd have to go weigh it up, 20 to 1 is a donation bet to that firm.   Betfair let you lay odds as I recall, doubt many will take this bet.  

I agree the legal challenge is most unlikely to make any difference, I'll go ahead and say Im sure some votes could be discounted but it wont be anything like is required to turn it around.   Theres conspiracy and theres spurious hopes and its just not feasible at this point.

The former president noted that the current one “earned the votes of more than 70 million Americans – an extraordinary political achievement.”

Quote from the article below, showing partly why its become so unlikely such a large amount of votes can be overturned or disputed, so far as I know there are not enough weak points in the argument for the president elect to proceed.


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2020/11/08/george-w-bush-congratulates-joe-biden-on-winning-white-house-sending-message-to-gop-about-elections-outcome/
Seems a relevant article to acceptance by both parties of the result for the good on the reoccuring race.   Considering I dont think the economy can especially improve until long standing debt is cleared, the next election could go either way again.

None of my bets closed, it better not stay open until Dec for silly reasons.

[nikola22]

I took Joe Biden odds of winning at x1.45 before the race began, anticipating this would be a quick one-day race, and I kind of regret that I betted too early and didn’t wait for the odds to go up. Just the day after I placed my bet, his odds went up to x1.65, and there was even a time when I could’ve got it at x2.9 when Trump was leading in all of the swing states. I wouldn’t have been afraid to place a bet then. But hey at least I effectively won something, it’s just not as big as I wanted it to be.

I made my bet on Joe Biden at x1.5 and there is no need to regret that you didn't catch the more profitable bet ) now there is only one need - to wait until the official results announced and bookmaker pays the bet.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

If Kamalla ran in 2024 I would bet on her to win, but I don't think that is a likely scenario. Joe will likely run for re-election. He might seem really old but last night we saw him jogging to the podium so I think he will still be in good enough shape to run again, although the presidency does take it's toll.

Trump might run again in 4 years but I don't know if there will still be that same energy among his supporters.

[Timelord2067]

If Kamalla ran in 2024 I would bet on her to win, but I don't think that is a likely scenario. Joe will likely run for re-election. He might seem really old but last night we saw him jogging to the podium so I think he will still be in good enough shape to run again, although the presidency does take it's toll.

Biden could always decide to stand down on his 80th birthday given he just became the oldest person to be elected to the position. (which would be in under three years time)

I wouldn't be surprised if a different Trump - Ivana Trump decides to take a shot for the White House.

Ivana Trump already has all the publicity photos she could ever hope for - and the Family name to draw on.

Kamala Harris Vs Ivana Trump in 2024 - that would be an interesting wager to have.

[mu_enrico]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).