US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[STT]

US 2020 Elections

3 debates with first in just two days,  Try to post any relevant data, link, tweet that could swing odds.    I'm finding some pretty surprising polls still but I dont believe in the absolute accuracy of polls, they are more of a gauge hence why the more data we have the better.

Bit of a straw poll this one, influenced by the target of the email.  Alot of those traders receiving the email must be republican is my take from that one because it would seem biased but still interesting to see.

More composed data showing a Biden win though again I'm not seeing a sample size, etc.  My simple strategy is to take the underdog bet while either side presents as such, 37% odds for Biden would be worth taking without too much thought.

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[DoublerHunter]

^ Probably the odds will favor into the former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee. He has a lot of votes according to the survey, but this will not give any guarantee on his winning. We know that Press Donald Trump was on his position and probably he can easily be used that strategy by on his own benefits. Nevertheless, if you want to place your bet at ( https://22bet.com/line/Politics/ ), do it now on this gambling site that has political betting. Very interesting match, you can watch on your television too.

[pixie85]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

[aesma]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

[Ryker1]

Well, I am not from the country of the US but I have a little idea how Trump managed the US country under his control, --and now people will take decide if they will continue to accept Trump again or not. As I see the data gave above, Joe Biden has got a doubled result compared to the score of Donald Trump.
This could perhaps a very interesting game if you gamble to them, we really don't know who will be the next president of America but I smell that it is Joe Biden since he is people's choice.

[Timelord2067]

I heard on the radio just this morning the President Trump will likely challenge any returns via the courts (especially postal votes etc) so the battle after the battle is yet to begin as I doubt there will be a clear majority of voters choosing one candidate over the other in less that 40 days.

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It's mandated in the US Constitution that the new President *must* be sworn in at noon on the given day for the smooth transition of power to occur (unles it's a formality re-election)

[goaldigger]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

He must accept the result and Trump is more confident to win again, well I don't have much ideas about these two but considering the situation in USA right now, maybe they need a more good leader to step up again.

The result will surprise us and we don't know how people will react if Biden win, or if Trump win again. Few more weeks and we will witness another history on US, I'll bet on Biden to win this time a fresh leadership towards the greatness of a great nation.

[Juggy777]

I heard on the radio just this morning the President Trump will likely challenge any returns via the courts (especially postal votes etc) so the battle after the battle is yet to begin as I doubt there will be a clear majority of voters choosing one candidate over the other in less that 40 days.

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It's mandated in the US Constitution that the new President *must* be sworn in at noon on the given day for the smooth transition of power to occur (unles it's a formality re-election)

@aesma it’s quiet possible that Trump may challenge the results in the court, and that’s why it’s important for the odds provider to offer clarity as to what will they do if Trump challenges the elections results in court. Furthermore if they choose to void the bets then what’s the point of placing the bets, hence before you’ll place your bets make sure your provider answers this question. Lastly Biden is currently leading by a huge margin, and I’m personally starting to feel that he’ll be winning it from this stage.

Sources:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-23/trump-refuses-to-commit-to-a-peaceful-transfer-of-power

https://www.vox.com/2020/9/27/21458451/biden-trump-september-polling-history

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/23/trump-is-counting-supreme-court-help-him-steal-election/

[Ucy]

Interesting.
I don't really follow politic but I think something like this would probably be nice if it's arranged in such a way that polls are sampled regularly, randomly, fairly etc then results are hidden and people bet on them. Or people could just bet (bets hidden) then you sample.
 It'll need to be fool-proof to avoid abuses. And something like that would work great on decentralized network/tech.
I will prefer samplers working individually around the country with live cameras or something

[erikoy]

It seems like Running candidate for presidential Joe Biden has higher odds here compared to the incumbent that if data in the presented pictures are accurate. However, in every elections the results are always unexpected. Here in our place a celebrity running for a senator position then being in a case of plunder even gets into prison with his budots dance ads in tv network made him win in senatorial candidate. It was unexpected that I thought people know how to vote but they don't because they only vote the candidate according to their popularity and not their works, skills and platform.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

Trump never said that he'll not accept the result. He said that he will not allow the democrats to rig the election process through fraudulent ballots. Both Trump and Biden teams have already recruited dozens of lawyers, anticipating a long legal battle during the counting process. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have a history of manipulating the postal ballots and therefore these precautions are required at least in the swing states such as PA and FL.

[dothebeats]

Biden's social media campaign seem to sway most of the Republicans in favor of the former VP, though IMO those sentiments expressed via Twitter and Facebook isn't really enough to gauge the actual happenings on the actual voting situations. All I know is, whoever wins on this election, there'll never be a smooth transition of power, and the loser will surely contest the result and would ask for recounts, and if that didn't happen, I'm pretty sure more riots and more chaos will occur within the US.

Anyways, most of the attention right now is focused on Trump's taxes and his 'alleged' abuse of legal loopholes to gain more instead of paying the Federal government his share of the pie. This is really big of an argument and we'll see how this plays out on the upcoming debate on the 29th.

[avikz]

I seem to have found a forecast which is entirely different than OP. Even though a sample size is not given but it seems pretty interesting to me,

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

According to this report, Biden will outnumber Trump in upcoming presidential election. Their model predicts the Biden has 85% chance of winning the election!

[notblox1]

Most of the forecasts and polls don't mean anything until first debate in few days.
Good luck americans if you vote for Joe Biden after all his weird comments, like this for example where he claimed he was elected for Senate 180 years ago  :
https://twitter.com/Not_the_Bee/status/1310027749768278023

[bryant.coleman]

Most of the forecasts and polls don't mean anything until first debate in few days.
Good luck americans if you vote for Joe Biden after all his weird comments, like this for example where he claimed he was elected for Senate 180 years ago  :
https://twitter.com/Not_the_Bee/status/1310027749768278023

What do you really expect from a 78-year old, who is suffering from all sorts of health issues? If he wins the election, then he will be a puppet and Kamala Harris will be the real president. Anyway, if he passes away before the end of his term, Kamala will be promoted as the president. Given her ultra-left leaning, that will destroy the United States once and forever.

The presidential election of 2020 is not between Trump and Biden. In reality it is Trump vs Kamala.

[hd49728]

Where are those 1400 gamblers come from? I mean how about their SES (social-economic status). From the site, votes for Biden are overwhelmed the total votes for Trump.

If results of first debate and of the President election ends like the current gambling order stats, Biden will win all. It is a huge if and in the last President Election, Trump made a good flip at very end for the campaign. This year, he is a President and has more power in hands to run more powerful campaigns in short late period before the election.

[bbc.reporter]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

[Darker45]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

I think the betting odds would be more accurate than opinion polls, especially in the long run. The opening odds will be less accurate. That's generally coming from sportsbooks analysts. But once the odds are released and people are now beginning to talk while putting their money where their mouth is, I guess the results would reflect more accurately than the ones coming from opinion polls.

Anyway, the first debate has been through. I don't think the opinions have changed a lot. Both men appeared as if they weren't able to convince the other man's supporters to jump ship. I've only watched highlights and my impression is that they're almost of the same feather.

[bryant.coleman]

Are opinion polls more accurate or are the sportsbooks odds more accurate? I had this discussion with @bryant.coleman.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237990.msg55259079#msg55259079

Would the whale bettors not treat this similar to a new of an injured player before a basketball game and move the odds if the opinion polls were more accurate?

Back in 2016, the pollsters faced a lot of issues because the Trump supporters (especially in the rust-belt states) would not reveal their voting intention. They now claim that their new methodology takes this factor in to account. But now they have to deal with additional X factors. First of all, no one really knows whether the low turnout (due to COVID 19) is going to hurt any one candidate more than the other. And secondly, the society has got polarized as a result of the BLM movement and the associated rioting.

[Cnut237]

Trump never said that he'll not accept the result.

No, but it looks extremely likely based on his past behaviour. Has he ever conceded defeat on anything in his life? Has he ever admitted he's lost in even the most minor contest? Now put him in the most high-profile 2-way contest on the planet, with billions of people watching the result.
If the results say he's lost, I think it's likely he'll take it to court. If the courts decide he's lost, I'm not sure what his next move will be... but he's unlikely to gracefully concede that he has been beaten.

[romero121]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

[Juggy777]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

@romero121 who do you think is leading due to Trump getting the virus, because I personally feel that it won’t have any major effect on Trump’s rating, and secondly people may also be upset with Democrats as they have advertisement false information wherein they had claimed that Trump had called corona a hoax. Also I believe that the debates will be carried on virtually, because Trump knows that he cannot afford to miss these debates, but let’s wait for an official confirmation about this.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/17/politics/joe-biden-campaign-ad-trump-coronavirus-hoax-fact-check/index.html

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx

https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/09/10061776/will-there-be-another-debate-2020

[Yaunfitda]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

I don't understand though, why would Trump getting covid-19 affects his chances though? In fact Trump can use this to his advantage and play the victim here and move US to his favour by claiming that he will fight this virus. Probably he can go on the debate, and obviously the other side will not go as well. And debates can be done on-line right? So I doubt that it will have a negative effect, on the contrary Trump can play this card successfully.

[johhnyUA]

I don't understand though, why would Trump getting covid-19 affects his chances though? In fact Trump can use this to his advantage and play the victim here and move US to his favour by claiming that he will fight this virus. Probably he can go on the debate, and obviously the other side will not go as well. And debates can be done on-line right? So I doubt that it will have a negative effect, on the contrary Trump can play this card successfully.

I watched his previous debates with Biden and can say that he was too bad, so online debates it's not an option for him. Also, about coronavirus: more likely that after his recover he will tell everyone that there is nothing to afraid and corona it's just a myth or something like that.

It's bad, because after debates i lost some faith in Trump and now doubt about this chances to win. And doubt that i will get back my money which i bet on him 

[Timelord2067]

Anyone know if there are prices for VP Pence assuming office in 2020 or the (post swearing in) VP assuming office in 2021?

What odds would that be?

[AniviaBtc]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

I also think that Joe Biden will win this 2020 elections because his stand towards racism and economic growth.

I want him to win due to his advocacy that he want to really make US have a good quality of life even if we are experiencing pandemic.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Anyone know if there are prices for VP Pence assuming office in 2020 or the (post swearing in) VP assuming office in 2021?
What odds would that be?

You should have made the bet before the COVID 19 diagnosis of Trump. Then you could have got odds such as 1/200 or 1/300. But now the odds have changed drastically. I checked Bookies.com. Pence was at +50000 last week. Yesterday they revised his odds at +1700. Biden went form -121 to -200, while Trump is now +190 (from +100 last week). Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton are unchanged, at +10,000 and +25,000 respectively.

https://bookies.com/news/us-presidential-election-odds-2020-weekly-rundown-trump-covid-19-impact

[Fundamentals Of]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

I want him to win due to his advocacy that he want to really make US have a good quality of life even if we are experiencing pandemic.

This is nothing but a promise which is very cheap during campaign time. Biden is not the only one who claims to really want the best kind of life for every American. That is also what Trump wants. That is what every single politician wants. It's not a different kind of promise. That is heard from all the mouths of politicians from all over the world, even in places ruled by unscrupulous murderers and dictators.

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

[bryant.coleman]

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

Back in 2016, Trump as a politician was a new comer. His opponent (Hillary) had a lot of past baggage and a large section of the population voted for Trump not because they agreed with his policies, but because they wanted to make sure that Hillary never becomes the president. Times have changed. Trump's disapproval ratings have remained consistently in the 50-55% range, and his opponent this time is regarded as a moderate (I am talking about Biden, and not about Kamala).

[CODE200]

Well, I am not from the country of the US but I have a little idea how Trump managed the US country under his control, --and now people will take decide if they will continue to accept Trump again or not. As I see the data gave above, Joe Biden has got a doubled result compared to the score of Donald Trump.
This could perhaps a very interesting game if you gamble to them, we really don't know who will be the next president of America but I smell that it is Joe Biden since he is people's choice.

Yes. That will be the setup in there. The people are just going to decide whether they would want for Donald Trump to continue governing the US or they will shift into switching into another candidate which is Joe Biden the former vice president of the country. It will be up to them to decide for they have experienced being governed by both individuals. But the poll results will surely not affect the official and final result of the election for there might be sudden change of minds with regards to the people's choice. Maybe on the polls Biden is the leading but Trump might still be the president after the election or Biden will be the newly elected president once election process have been done and all votes have been casted. Whether what the result will be, the important bet in here is the future sake of the US so they better be wise on voting.

[bbc.reporter]

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

Back in 2016, Trump as a politician was a new comer. His opponent (Hillary) had a lot of past baggage and a large section of the population voted for Trump not because they agreed with his policies, but because they wanted to make sure that Hillary never becomes the president. Times have changed. Trump's disapproval ratings have remained consistently in the 50-55% range, and his opponent this time is regarded as a moderate (I am talking about Biden, and not about Kamala).

I disagree. The same segment of the population that voted for Trump remains having a similar attitude on 2016. Democrats support of defund the police and the black lives matter riots destroying communities? The young liberals should go out and vote if they do not want Trump hehe. However, I reckon young are also divided.

Also watch the video Trump's new campaign storyboard. The Return of the King hehehehe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313267143232942081?s=12

[bryant.coleman]

I disagree. The same segment of the population that voted for Trump remains having a similar attitude on 2016. Democrats support of defund the police and the black lives matter riots destroying communities? The young liberals should go out and vote if they do not want Trump hehe. However, I reckon young are also divided.

Also watch the video Trump's new campaign storyboard. The Return of the King hehehehe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313267143232942081?s=12

From what I have seen, the mainstream media is showing only one side of the debate. They are showing the BLM movement and the protest marches, but they never show the violence and rioting that is being done by the left wing militias. On the other hand, they are trying to paint a picture that it is the right-wing militias that are committing most of the violence. For example, the panelists trying to blame Pretty Boys and other right wing groups for violence during the first presidential debate. But Trump was smart, and he explicitly stated that the ANTIFA and the other left-groups are responsible for most of the rioting.

[thesmallgod]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

[DoublerHunter]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

^ Do you meant that the election day is postponed? Nah, that will not happen because there is a law that the election day will must go on.
As I always say, Donald Trump plays the game unexpectedly. Polls might be pointed to Joe Biden, but the end result is always the thing that we need to consider. Joe Biden on the other hand could offer a unique experience of leadership to US as he is a Democrat.  People are betting for this election and odds are on Trump. But I don't see any way that this can be predicted easily. Nevertheless, thats a good bet anyway!

[Ryker1]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

^ Do you meant that the election day is postponed? Nah, that will not happen because there is a law that the election day will must go on.
As I always say, Donald Trump plays the game unexpectedly. Polls might be pointed to Joe Biden, but the end result is always the thing that we need to consider. Joe Biden on the other hand could offer a unique experience of leadership to US as he is a Democrat.  People are betting for this election and odds are on Trump. But I don't see any way that this can be predicted easily. Nevertheless, thats a good bet anyway!

Well, the bet would take months to decide, Trump is not in good condition for the Presidency due to his health. Biden is healthier than him anyways.
And that influences the rate of votes for the two as Biden benefitting on that criteria. Trump is not good with a debate as well, I am afraid, Biden too. But we will see. I will be looking forward for updated polls to participate in this betting. I hope the OP will be able to provide updates and development with integrity.
I am little bit excited if Biden will become a President ^[soon] in the US.

[coupable]

Even Trump wasn't like any other US president in the US history, considering how he governs and what he did in US foreign policy, we can't deny the fact that he doesn't lose supporters from the last 2016 election. Those who still believe that Trump is the one who can make America Great. Baiden still have to convince the americans that he can deal with existing issues including the fight against Corona, but this is somehow a hard task for him if he just continue to attack Trump like we saw in the first debate. For me, both don't deserve to be elected for presidential but i will be more excited if the americans vote for Trump again .

[notblox1]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.
I am not sure how this will affect elections but that means that we can't expect any major rise in markets, and there is real fud situation now.
We are not even sure if there will be any more debates, because Trump still has corona virus, but I am still betting he will again be president.
Looking at odds now Biden is big favorite:
https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/

[Johnyz]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.
I am not sure how this will affect elections but that means that we can't expect any major rise in markets, and there is real fud situation now.
We are not even sure if there will be any more debates, because Trump still has corona virus, but I am still betting he will again be president.
Looking at odds now Biden is big favorite:
https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/

The shows continues for Trump and yes, no more debates but for sure they will continue to campaign everywhere and hopefully Trump recover as soon as possible so the market can recover as well. There’s a good chance for Biden to win on this campaign, whatever the result is I hope the stocks and cryptomarket recover big time after the US presidential election.

[figmentofmyass]

the betting markets didn't take too kindly to trump's coronavirus diagnosis. did anybody bet trump when his odds were below 30%? punters must have been getting close to 3.5!

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.

dumb move. what the hell is he thinking? that's just pissing away votes. he could at least keep talks open even if he wants to delay the actual stimulus. i'm beginning to get the feeling that trump is subtly giving up and doesn't even wanna win the election anymore.

[Timelord2067]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.

If the price of bitcoin dropped, I must have blinked as it seems to be about the same as it has been for days/weeks now.  With the election just under a month no one should be enabling mammoth financial packages that might not make it past election day.  There should be a period of "Caretaker" mode the same as in Australia, the UK, New Zealand and Canada between when an election is called and when the returns are declared and the winner decided.

[MWesterweele]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

I want him to win due to his advocacy that he want to really make US have a good quality of life even if we are experiencing pandemic.

This is nothing but a promise which is very cheap during campaign time. Biden is not the only one who claims to really want the best kind of life for every American. That is also what Trump wants. That is what every single politician wants. It's not a different kind of promise. That is heard from all the mouths of politicians from all over the world, even in places ruled by unscrupulous murderers and dictators.

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

A true and indeed but a truth good quality of life, clean public servicing was always a promise of a candidate when he/she spoke in front of the voters during campaign period. Every single politician made it as promise but sometimes in a worst case scenerio when they became in a position sometimes none of their promises are proven. Based on what i have read in social media and what i have been watched in news, american citizens need new leadership. In terms of Trump and Biden i thought that every american citizen had already learned from the leadership of Trump.

[carter34]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

It is a tight contest. Joe Biden is not a push off politician. He has been around for long and there experienced too. I expect stock volatility as November approach. We all need to be careful with our investment because stock market will highly be affected as the election draws up.

[notblox1]

You can agree or not agree with Trump but many people reported they received incorrect forms for voting, and Trump is early to say that this will be most corrupt elections in american history! I am not sure if maybe he is preparing himself for defeat?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313661368856457217

Now we is ready to send personal stimulus checks:  
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313664886648582144

[wxa7115]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

That will be the worst outcome by far, if there is one thing the US and the world does not need is an economic crisis on top of the current one caused by political turmoil on one of the most powerful countries around the world.

But the bad news is that I could see this happening, if Trump losses by a small margin I have my doubts he will accept the results and the crisis this will create will affect the markets all over the world with crashes happening almost immediately, so I really hope the scenario you are picturing does not come to pass.

[bryant.coleman]

It is a tight contest. Joe Biden is not a push off politician. He has been around for long and there experienced too. I expect stock volatility as November approach. We all need to be careful with our investment because stock market will highly be affected as the election draws up.

US stock markets (NYSE as well as the NASDAQ) have performed exceptionally well during this pandemic season. Even today, the Dow Jones is up by 1.5%. Trump's 4 year term was really good for the investors. The indices went up by 40%-50%, and this happened at a time when the annual rate from the 10-year old treasury bond had dropped to around 1.3%.

[DarkStar_]

One interesting observation: On betting exchanges, a Democrats/Republican win are trading at 1.51/2.92 odds respectively in the Winning Party market, for a vig removed implied probability of 65.91%/34.09%.


Pinnacle also has an election winner market up, but they have the condition that Biden & Trump must be 'viable nominees' on election day for their respective parties. We get odds of 1.512/2.65 respectively, for an vig removed implied probability of 63.67%/36.33%.


Pinnacle does have much higher vig than exchanges for this market, so they will be slightly less accurate, but they're still a sharp book. These markets imply that if something were to happen to Trump/Biden and either of them become no longer viable candidates, the Democrat replacement would have a 2% greater chance of winning vs Biden and the Republican replacement would have a 2% lower chance of winning vs Trump. I was expecting the other way around, and thought that a less controversial candidate replacing Trump would give better odds of a Republican win.

[erikoy]

US stock markets (NYSE as well as the NASDAQ) have performed exceptionally well during this pandemic season. Even today, the Dow Jones is up by 1.5%. Trump's 4 year term was really good for the investors. The indices went up by 40%-50%, and this happened at a time when the annual rate from the 10-year old treasury bond had dropped to around 1.3%.

Well, Trump had shown great leadership and good decision making. If not people seeing this then he could not win during the last election. However,  the usual reaction of the people after getting into his term is always wanting a change that they could feel even better in their living provided by good governance which usually it is the hardest part of a perso  running a country.

In my opinion it is not very easy to run a  country and being also one of the most powerful leader around the world that could influence other leaders as well.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Pinnacle does have much higher vig than exchanges for this market, so they will be slightly less accurate, but they're still a sharp book. These markets imply that if something were to happen to Trump/Biden and either of them become no longer viable candidates, the Democrat replacement would have a 2% greater chance of winning vs Biden and the Republican replacement would have a 2% lower chance of winning vs Trump. I was expecting the other way around, and thought that a less controversial candidate replacing Trump would give better odds of a Republican win.

Anyone who watched the debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence would disagree to that. Harris was a disaster during the debate, while Pence made his points very clearly. On top of that, a lot of those who intend to vote for Biden will be abstaining in case Kamala is the candidate. She is too far to the left for the independent voters. On the other hand, Pence is regarded as a centrist.

[STT]

The 2nd debate is obviously upset by health issues and will be virtual apparently but it may not go ahead at all possibly also.     I spotted some poll info I will post below and thought it was confident enough to post because they are trying to account for the Electoral College win scenario this time a little better.   They still conclude its almost certainly not a Trump win but obviously that should still be considered with a large margin of error.

https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1314389889148833792

We can say one thing for sure now: If Donald Trump wins the 2020 presidential election, it will be either the biggest October comeback or the biggest polling error in the polling era.

Joe Biden leads by a bit more than 8 percentage points in national polls. Trump still has a bit of an Electoral College advantage, meaning that if each state moved equally in his direction, he could win the election even if he loses the popular vote. But as of now, the advantage doesn’t appear to have grown from 2016, and he’s too far behind for it to save him. Polls have him down 6.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 7.0 in Michigan and 6.7 in Wisconsin. Those are the three states that gave him the presidency in 2016. Could the polling be wrong? Sure. Is it likely? Not particularly. There are far more surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin this time around, and pollsters think that they’ve learned their lessons from last time.

polls have been quite stable this cycle, much more so than in 2016, which makes any big late shifts less likely

unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden is relatively popular, making it less likely that those now supporting him are uneasy with their choice.

I wouldnt assume I'm correct but that was my perception also that right or wrong, Biden is less objectionable with the general electorate.   If we're talking swing or undecided voters being important then you dont want any point that would deter in any noticeable way, Biden has lots of things to criticise but he comes across as fairly mild to me which might be of some help to close out some marginal states.

[bbc.reporter]

I disagree. The same segment of the population that voted for Trump remains having a similar attitude on 2016. Democrats support of defund the police and the black lives matter riots destroying communities? The young liberals should go out and vote if they do not want Trump hehe. However, I reckon young are also divided.

Also watch the video Trump's new campaign storyboard. The Return of the King hehehehe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313267143232942081?s=12

From what I have seen, the mainstream media is showing only one side of the debate. They are showing the BLM movement and the protest marches, but they never show the violence and rioting that is being done by the left wing militias. On the other hand, they are trying to paint a picture that it is the right-wing militias that are committing most of the violence. For example, the panelists trying to blame Pretty Boys and other right wing groups for violence during the first presidential debate. But Trump was smart, and he explicitly stated that the ANTIFA and the other left-groups are responsible for most of the rioting.

I will pretend I am not certain on the purpose of the mainstream media's agenda on BLM or the militias hehe, however, I know we can agree that the mainstream media have always been against Trump from day 1 of his administration.

Also, this news.



Government documents show six examples of Obama admin spying on Trump camp

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/20/six-examples-obama-administration-spying-trump-cam/

[malevolent]

dumb move. what the hell is he thinking? that's just pissing away votes. he could at least keep talks open even if he wants to delay the actual stimulus. i'm beginning to get the feeling that trump is subtly giving up and doesn't even wanna win the election anymore.

I thought the same with some of the things he did/said last time, that he never wanted to be a president in the first place. But this time he actually risks ending up in prison if he loses his legally comfy position. He either has a plan or he's as dumb as his opponents say.

BTW, has anyone used fairlay recently? Thought about betting on US election results but I'm hesitant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=673475.msg55347187#msg55347187

[Timelord2067]

BTW, has anyone used fairlay recently? Thought about betting on US election results but I'm hesitant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=673475.msg55347187#msg55347187

If I can recommend freebitco.in - they are offering over 2:1 for Trump (and you can also place a near 200:1 bet for Kamala Harris becoming the next US President too) - Freebitcoin has over 39 million registered users and counting.

Link is in my Signature.

[Karartma1]

Has anyone here seen the following betting platform? This thread made me curious and I found a few sites but this one is crazy. Allows gamblers to bet on basically anything. I don't know how it works in detail, if it's a scam or not but maybe you can tell.
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-be-elected-president-in-2020-4401#bets-1

[Juggy777]

dumb move. what the hell is he thinking? that's just pissing away votes. he could at least keep talks open even if he wants to delay the actual stimulus. i'm beginning to get the feeling that trump is subtly giving up and doesn't even wanna win the election anymore.

I thought the same with some of the things he did/said last time, that he never wanted to be a president in the first place. But this time he actually risks ending up in prison if he loses his legally comfy position. He either has a plan or he's as dumb as his opponents say.

BTW, has anyone used fairlay recently? Thought about betting on US election results but I'm hesitant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=673475.msg55347187#msg55347187

Snip

If I can recommend freebitco.in - they are offering over 2:1 for Trump (and you can also place a near 200:1 bet for Kamala Harris becoming the next US President too) - Freebitcoin has over 39 million registered users and counting.

Link is in my Signature.

@malevolent I’ll agree that his behaviour is confusing at times, but if he wanted to give up the presidency role then why would he agree to nominate a judge to the Supreme Court now, very well knowing that he can retain his chair with the help of the Supreme Court.

Furthermore @Timelord2067 Freebitco is a legit site, hence not a bad suggestion in my personal opinion, but @malevolent do check various other sportsbook too, and where ever you get higher odds place your bets quickly as odds will continue to fluctuate as we get closer to the elections.

Sources:

https://www.ft.com/content/19d08c2e-7130-4147-a8b9-a6763bb92777

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-supreme-court-2020-election-president-b559674.html

[Yamifoud]

Has anyone here seen the following betting platform? This thread made me curious and I found a few sites but this one is crazy. Allows gamblers to bet on basically anything. I don't know how it works in detail, if it's a scam or not but maybe you can tell.
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-be-elected-president-in-2020-4401#bets-1

https://www.bitcoingambling101.com/reviews/betmoose/
I don't want to draw any conclusion about their legality but seeing them not yet verified as casino we should have to act cautiously or not at all to keep safe.

Site Security
Betmoose uses 128-bit SSL encryption provided by AddTrust on all pages. However, no license is available. This is not surprising because there is no institution to license a peer-to-peer pari-mutuel betting system. Remember that Betmoose does not check bets created by the users beforehand: Even if there is no problem with security, avoid bets with very complex and/or unusual outcomes.

This will give me worries a lot and thinking a possible exit scam soon to happen.

[DarkStar_]

BTW, has anyone used fairlay recently? Thought about betting on US election results but I'm hesitant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=673475.msg55347187#msg55347187

I've used Fairlay quite a bit recently, with decently sized bets. They're definitely safe to use. FWIW I've never ran into the issues that nrd525 was complaining about on that thread for hundreds (if not thousands) of bets.

Has anyone here seen the following betting platform? This thread made me curious and I found a few sites but this one is crazy. Allows gamblers to bet on basically anything. I don't know how it works in detail, if it's a scam or not but maybe you can tell.
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-be-elected-president-in-2020-4401#bets-1

BetMoose is legit as far as I know, though they're not very active on the forum and I don't know anyone that actually uses the service. They've been around for a really long time.

[Karartma1]

Has anyone here seen the following betting platform? This thread made me curious and I found a few sites but this one is crazy. Allows gamblers to bet on basically anything. I don't know how it works in detail, if it's a scam or not but maybe you can tell.
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-be-elected-president-in-2020-4401#bets-1

BetMoose is legit as far as I know, though they're not very active on the forum and I don't know anyone that actually uses the service. They've been around for a really long time.

Yes, thanks I saw there is a thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645747.0) for their service since 2014 (definitely a long time in the bitcoin betting business). If we go by the definition of legit I don't know how legit they are   but it surely is a functioning betting platform. I saw they have many US Elections related bets and the stakes are quite high hence it could be considered safe to bet there.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Yes, thanks I saw there is a thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645747.0) for their service since 2014 (definitely a long time in the bitcoin betting business). If we go by the definition of legit I don't know how legit they are   but it surely is a functioning betting platform. I saw they have many US Elections related bets and the stakes are quite high hence it could be considered safe to bet there.

I checked their website, and their thread here. I couldn't find any red flags. But I would like to say one thing. They are running from 2014, but that doesn't mean that the same set of owners were in charge for the entire duration. In the cryptocurrency sector, a lot of times successful businesses change hands. And in some cases, the new owners may not be as competitive as the old ones.

[STT]

In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.
In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

The three challengers in the polling era (Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992) who defeated incumbents have all been trusted more than the incumbent to deal with what Americans thought was the nation's most important problem. None, however, were trusted by more than 50% of the voters.

Just 38% said Trump would do a better job than Biden.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/biden-best-position-challenger/index.html


Thought this was something of another nail in the run of this Republican run, I dont count it as absolute but still the points are reasonable as to why the odds are slim for their winning this.   Last time I can remember the general news and mood with an incumbent upset like this was almost 30 years ago of course; its not to be expected normally.   So its fair to look out for exceptional circumstances and we have those from the start of this year.   This latest data or polling is just adding to the case then making any substantial new argument.
   Just the economy alone would be enough but the last idea that just 38% favor the current administration over the opponent is a big deal especially when theres almost always a large bias in older ages to voters, also to the most threatened by negative effects of this virus so its quite probable as a highly relevant near term deciding factor.

[Karartma1]

Now this is funny! Online bookmakers cut Joe Biden 2020 US election odds over the weekend (from -192 following the vice-presidential debate to -225) = chances of winning the 2020 US election have grown from 65.8% to 69.2%.
Donald Trump’s 2020 US election odds have shifted from +188 to +210 = Trump’s election chances decreased from 34.8% to just 32.3%.
But...
Despite the sportsbooks believing Joe Biden is the clear favorite to win the 2020 US election, the betting public is at a complete disagreement.
Over the weekend, just under 59% of bets on the 2020 US election have been on Donald Trump winning next months election while Biden has accounted for just 35% of bets on the 2020 US election.
https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20201012-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-donald-trump-dominates-joe-biden-in-the-betting

A few more links
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html (odds comparison)
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/goldman-says-short-dollar-odds-firm-biden-win-vaccine (a possible outcome for the dollar)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-the-latest-polls-say-about-whether-trump-or-biden-will-win-the-presidential-election-51602438631

[Vishnu.Reang]

Now this is funny! Online bookmakers cut Joe Biden 2020 US election odds over the weekend (from -192 following the vice-presidential debate to -225) = chances of winning the 2020 US election have grown from 65.8% to 69.2%.

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

[Timelord2067]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

[bryant.coleman]

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

Online polls assume that the voter turnout will be same as the case with 2016. And this can increase the error margin. It may not impact the outcome in deep-blue or deep-red states. But in some of the swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the margin can be less than 1% and here the difference in voter turnout can swing the results either way. 

[Onuohakk]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

[Vishnu.Reang]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

That happened in 2016, when some of the voters in the rust-belt states refused to publicly state that they are going to vote for Donald Trump. In the end, the opinion polls ended up undercounting the support for Trump in a number of states. That said, many of the polling agencies now claim that their new methodology takes in to account this undercount. So nothing can be said for sure, as of now.

[Juggy777]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

That happened in 2016, when some of the voters in the rust-belt states refused to publicly state that they are going to vote for Donald Trump. In the end, the opinion polls ended up undercounting the support for Trump in a number of states. That said, many of the polling agencies now claim that their new methodology takes in to account this undercount. So nothing can be said for sure, as of now.

@Vishnu.Reang in my personal opinion Trump has no surprise card left which can increase his chances of winning, unless of course he chooses to contest the election results in court. Furthermore another factor which will harm Trump’s chances of winning is that Indians who live in US plan to vote for Biden, and their votes matter a lot in this election.

Sources:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-supreme-court-2020-election-president-b559674.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/why-the-indian-american-voter-matters-to-both-trump-and-biden-5863691.html

[abhiseshakana]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

Of course, because the two candidates both have supporters and they also have their own strategies to win the election. Even though Biden is leading presidential polls now, we still cannot underestimate the chance of Trump to come out as the winner again.

If we look at the 2016 election where Hilary led the polls but the one who came out as the winner was Trump, so there is a possibility that in this election Trump could reverse the situation again. But currently, Trump has coronavirus and maybe it will affect his campaign so his chances of winning the election are getting smaller.

[tyz]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

Of course, because the two candidates both have supporters and they also have their own strategies to win the election. Even though Biden is leading presidential polls now, we still cannot underestimate the chance of Trump to come out as the winner again.

If we look at the 2016 election where Hilary led the polls but the one who came out as the winner was Trump, so there is a possibility that in this election Trump could reverse the situation again. But currently, Trump has coronavirus and maybe it will affect his campaign so his chances of winning the election are getting smaller.

The polls are completely irrelevant. It is a known fact (even among scientists there is now a consensus) that many, especially Trump voters, no longer provide any or correct information in the polls. That is why some polls indicate an uncertainty factor of +-7.5%. In addition, it is not the total votes that count (if so, Biden would be become President for sure), but the electors and in many key states Biden has a slight lead (Hillary had the same four years ago), but with the above mentioned uncertainty factors, these states can easily go to Trump and then he will reach the 270 electors to remain president.

[jostorres]

The difference this year is that people are going out to vote, what democratic party couldn't do themselves in 2016, Trump managed to do in 2020 for them. Normally Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are not candidates that could make people go out to vote, even though Clinton won the popular vote, she didn't made people from important swing states go out and vote for her, because she wasn't appealing, Biden is not neither, he is not as troubled as Hillary when it comes to "likability" issue, but he is not Obama neither.

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

[jademaxsuy]

^ Probably the odds will favor into the former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee. He has a lot of votes according to the survey, but this will not give any guarantee on his winning. We know that Press Donald Trump was on his position and probably he can easily be used that strategy by on his own benefits. Nevertheless, if you want to place your bet at ( https://22bet.com/line/Politics/ ), do it now on this gambling site that has political betting. Very interesting match, you can watch on your television too.

Trump will use his influence as the current president to get advantage on this election. It is expected already because he is eager to win this election and wanted to lead another years as President in one of the establish country in the world.

However, Trump should not be feeling confident enough to win because he had now having a great rival in the presidential position.

It seems Biden too were being supported and votes will be surely going to be divided and we can't speculate what will going to happen next.

[leea-1334]

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

I do not like Trump. But we have many politicians like that in other countries and from my personal experience: people who hate politicians like that are willing to spend days on Social Media, but not go to make a vote.

On the other hand people who love the Trumps actually take the time to go out to vote and puff out their chest.

[bryant.coleman]

I do not like Trump. But we have many politicians like that in other countries and from my personal experience: people who hate politicians like that are willing to spend days on Social Media, but not go to make a vote.

On the other hand people who love the Trumps actually take the time to go out to vote and puff out their chest.

I would agree. The voter turnout among the left-wing groups have been historically low. And it will be even lower this time, due to the COVID 19 pandemic. On the other hand, the Trump supporters are not even taking this pandemic seriously. They refuse to wear masks and they regularly ignore social distancing. So I would assume that Trump supporters are more likely to turn up to vote.

[figmentofmyass]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

[johhnyUA]

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

I remember we're talked about it before. I think that unlike 2016, when zoomers and millenials just skipped their chance to vote, this time they all will vote for sure. And your link above just support my suggestions. It's not good for me, because i've already bet for Trump victory with 2.65 odd :c

Anyway, that's life

The voter turnout among the left-wing groups have been historically low.

 

No, vise versa, i think historical high. They understood since 2016 that the only way to change something in their favor - it's to vote.

The difference this year is that people are going out to vote, what democratic party couldn't do themselves in 2016, Trump managed to do in 2020 for them. Normally Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are not candidates that could make people go out to vote

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

Exactly. Even Biden is 83 years old and i saw already has a problems with memory and speaking (dementia i think), many people will better vote for him, rather then for Trump (and for honest, i don't think is this good or bad)

[bbc.reporter]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

However, it can also be argued that 2016 also had extremely high level of optimism for a Hillary victory. It was speculated to be close to a certainty by the pollsters.

A person's vote will never be a certainty until the shades are made on the ballot.

[hd49728]

Surveys inside US and news from US newspapers are not reliable. They fall into one of two sides: Democrats or Republic. Surveys and news from other countries can be more reliable and if the Wisdom of the Crowd is true, I believe Trump will win the election. I am not on the side of Democrats or Republic and I am neutral but from oversea survey and newspapers, Trump has his chance to win the election.

Better economy, lower rate of unemployment, bring back jobs, etc. He has done well but not did greatest records in history of the US

[Xxmodded]

I want to bet that Donald Trump will remain the seed to become President of America, he will serve two terms at the same time because his competitors at Joe Biden are not very influential to counter Donald Trump's electability. The presidential election of the United States five years ago against Trump also could not speak much because Trump's vision and mission against China made many people of the United States to vote for him. Moreover, Joe Biden's opponent Donald Trump raised an issue about Trump saying he was anti-Muslim, but the fact is that during Trump's presidency there has been no persecution against Muslims so far.

[DrG]

Bet on the candidate that you're not voting for, that way even if your candidate loses the race you win some money for a stiff drink haha.

Seriously though I'm not seeing any wagers for Senate races which are quite important. Has anybody seen any options for those?

[Vishnu.Reang]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

Too early to talk about the turnout. The majority of the Democrat voters are saying that they would refuse to go to the polling booths. Yesterday the CNN reported that close to 22 million have cast their postal ballots already. It is still a tiny fraction of the total number of ballots cast in 2016. According to some estimates, around 12% of the 2016 votes have been cast till now. Things won't be clear, until we have the final polling numbers.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that the Ukraine and China connection issue on Biden has caused Trump's odds to move into his favor. Will this movement continue for the final days until election day hehehe?

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.

[figmentofmyass]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

However, it can also be argued that 2016 also had extremely high level of optimism for a Hillary victory. It was speculated to be close to a certainty by the pollsters.

i'm not talking about optimism for or expectation of a biden victory. the polls and betting odds are much closer this time around too.

what i'm talking about is voter engagement. there are reasons to believe that high voter turnout benefits democrats. consider these studies: https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/11156810/Fowler_gsas.harvard_0084L_10773.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

Study #1 examines the adoption of compulsory voting laws in Australia in order to assess the effects of near-universal turnout. When new, working class voters were brought the polls Australia saw significant changes in election results and public policy.

Study #2 explores the partisan consequences of marginal changes in voter turnout in the United States by comparing the partisan preferences of regular and marginal voters.  Across three independent tests and settings, marginal voters are significantly more supportive of the Democratic Party compared to regular voters.

nonvoters are more likely to be poor, young, nonwhite, women, less educated, etc---groups that are more likely to vote democrat, if they vote.

the other thing to consider is what actually happened in the 2018 elections---the only elections so far in the age of trump. we saw the biggest turnout of any mid-term election since 1914, and democrats took control of the house.

don't get me wrong. i don't think a biden victory is guaranteed, but i'm a lot more bullish on biden than i was a couple months ago.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

[bryant.coleman]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

[erikoy]

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

Surveys are paid to give to givre false data especially when election is near. This is the problem with these surveys that somehow seems not reliable especially here in our place.

I remember one time that when the election happen way back 2016 to which the survey releases different candidates every month of mosr favored by the people and that confuses everybodt because they know that they only like one candidate to which it shows during the election period or voting period where the result is landslide with the candidate favored the most.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

FiveThirtyEight does more than just aggregating. Their 'election forecast' takes other factors into consideration. According to their site: Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.

In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than anybody else. Many people on the left got upset when they said Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton.

Prediction markets and casinos give Trump a better chance because a lot of early money was put on him. At the beginning of the year it was assumed that he would have an easy re-election. Then the pandemic happened and his response to it was a complete disaster. If you only look at recent weeks then we can see that this is more reflective of our current reality. A lot more people are betting on Biden and those numbers are starting to catch up to the odds we're seeing from pollsters.

[bryant.coleman]

FiveThirtyEight does more than just aggregating. Their 'election forecast' takes other factors into consideration. According to their site: Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.

In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than anybody else. Many people on the left got upset when they said Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton.

Prediction markets and casinos give Trump a better chance because a lot of early money was put on him. At the beginning of the year it was assumed that he would have an easy re-election. Then the pandemic happened and his response to it was a complete disaster. If you only look at recent weeks then we can see that this is more reflective of our current reality. A lot more people are betting on Biden and those numbers are starting to catch up to the odds we're seeing from pollsters.

One of the most important factors this time is the turnout. A few days back, I was told that almost 28 million voters have cast their ballot, through early voting. If we assume that the turnout is the same as 2016, then 20% of the votes have been already cast. But this time, there is evidence to prove that Republicans are intentionally waiting for the election day. The only thing I want to say at this point is that... it is going to be very messy, when they start counting the votes.

[DrG]

It appears that the Ukraine and China connection issue on Biden has caused Trump's odds to move into his favor. Will this movement continue for the final days until election day hehehe?

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.

It has been the narrative goal of the media at large for the past decade or so. Anything critical of China is quickly censored or swept under the rug. Remember the whole China dogfood melamine discovery back in 2007? Probably 90% of voters won't even keep that in the back of their heads. Apparently Russian trolls on Facebook are enough to sway the vote of Americas 

China has moved on from dogfood, now putting hazardous materials into food meant for human consumption that it sells to India. I can see Stalin and Mao siting at a tea party in Hell 

[bbc.reporter]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

[erikoy]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

Well, if that Biden could win. However, I do believe more on Trump because he can do influence other people aside from his existing supporters because of his current position as the powerful person their country.

If Trump knows well how to influence the people then high chance he could get elected again. Besides I have never know Biden well and not a clue if he had also be an outstanding official as a vice president in their country. Well only the people of america can answer this through election day.

[DrG]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

Even if you took China's word at face value and believe they did everything in their power to control the outflow of the virus (stop laughing), the media is completely silent about things like Feinstein having her aide of over a decade stealing intelligence for China. This is not even a conspiracy, this is a case that has formal prosecution in the legal system. China is also the number one cyber security threat to US infrastructure. The media happily reports of BTC extortion threats from Russians but is completely silent on a national news level about the NYPD officer who was spying for the CCP.

In my field of medicine, this would be like counseling a patient about their diabetes while they have a open femur fracture. Both are issues, one just seems to carry more weight and seems agenda driven. When was the last time you worried about lead in your Russian cookware?

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote. It's all going to come down to a few swing states and right now Biden is ahead in the polls in all of them except Ohio, Georgia and Texas. In Ohio it's a tie and in Georgia, Trump is only favored by 0.2%. Texas is likely to go for Trump where he is leading by 3 points.

All of the stuff about China and Russia is irrelevant to voters. The media likes to make a big deal about Russia and now they're also trying to make China into the boogeyman but Americans really only care about domestic issues.

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.

Russia used to be the Republicans favorite punching bag but now it seems they have fallen in love with Putin because he tried to help Trump win.

[proTECH77]

The way the campaign rally is going show that the game will soon end and the winner will be congratulate just the way he was congratulated in 2016. Trump is playing the game well that will make him a winner soon because he is use to the game. It will be hard for Biden to win this game because the way the game is going show that Trump will surely win the game as usual.
US citizen are set to celebrate the winner of the game since the game was not rig like the way it ended 2016 that make Trump the president of US. The way the match is going Trump will surely win the game.

[celot]

The way the campaign rally is going show that the game will soon end and the winner will be congratulate just the way he was congratulated in 2016. Trump is playing the game well that will make him a winner soon because he is use to the game. It will be hard for Biden to win this game because the way the game is going show that Trump will surely win the game as usual.
US citizen are set to celebrate the winner of the game since the game was not rig like the way it ended 2016 that make Trump the president of US. The way the match is going Trump will surely win the game.

Donald Trump playing well game during the campaign, he even made statement to fight China and said the United States would be destroyed if it cooperated with China, of course this was the most influential to make the public sympathetic and want to vote for him than his toughest rival Joe Bidden who popularized the issue of Muslims in the United States, it was clear that five years earlier, Trump had not experienced any obstacles or even controversial decisions against Muslims in the United States. The same result five years ago when Trump won easily will also happen later, Joe Bidden is not a very influential opponent for Trump and will not be able to fight the prestige that Donald Trump has built over the previous five years, maybe the percentage is around 70% to 30%. for Trump's victory in this election against Joe Bidden.

[hd49728]

Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote. It's all going to come down to a few swing states and right now Biden is ahead in the polls in all of them except Ohio, Georgia and Texas. In Ohio it's a tie and in Georgia, Trump is only favored by 0.2%. Texas is likely to go for Trump where he is leading by 3 points.

All of the stuff about China and Russia is irrelevant to voters. The media likes to make a big deal about Russia and now they're also trying to make China into the boogeyman but Americans really only care about domestic issues.

You can not believe in poll results if you don't know about their data collection methodology and how representative for all population in USA the polls can have. About 10 days and the Election day and few hours or days later can help us to know the quality and correctness of those polls that are used by newspapers.

Despite of debates with election results from Biden or Trump, the early result after Election day and give us better view on the news, polls, and the choices of USA. citizens.

[FinneysTrueVision]

You can not believe in poll results if you don't know about their data collection methodology and how representative for all population in USA the polls can have. About 10 days and the Election day and few hours or days later can help us to know the quality and correctness of those polls that are used by newspapers.

Despite of debates with election results from Biden or Trump, the early result after Election day and give us better view on the news, polls, and the choices of USA. citizens.

We have historical data to compare them to. You can't just discount polls because you don't like them. Of course they can't be 100% accurate especially in a country of over 300 million people with a diverse population. What we have seen in recent years elections is that the more data we have, the more accurate the polls have been at predicting the outcome of elections. Statistician Nate Silver gained notoriety for accurately predicting how 49 of 50 states would vote in 2008 and in 2012 he was 100% accurate. His blog FiveThiryEight has also had a very high accuracy rate at predicting Senate and House races.

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

[figmentofmyass]

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.



i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

[FinneysTrueVision]

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.

https://i.imgur.com/mM9Sq99.jpg
i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

The presidential election isn't as simple as a game of cards. There is a lot of states involved and the odds will be continuously shifting on election night. Right now Texas is the state with one of the slimmest margins. Trump is only ahead by half a percent. If he loses Texas his odds go down to zero. Even if he manages to hold Texas and flip a few states that he is currently losing in the polls it doesn't improve his odds by that much.

[figmentofmyass]

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.

https://i.imgur.com/mM9Sq99.jpg

i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

The presidential election isn't as simple as a game of cards.

who says poker is simple? hold 'em involves many billions of possible hand combinations.

anyway, it was just an analogy for fivethirtyeight's position that trump had a 13% chance of winning. unlikely, but certainly not impossible or even that much of a long shot.

There is a lot of states involved and the odds will be continuously shifting on election night. Right now Texas is the state with one of the slimmest margins. Trump is only ahead by half a percent. If he loses Texas his odds go down to zero. Even if he manages to hold Texas and flip a few states that he is currently losing in the polls it doesn't improve his odds by that much.

fivethirtyeight accounts for all of that. their odds are based on simulating the election 40k times, with the forecast updating every time a new poll comes in.

[kryptqnick]

It's slightly more than a week before the elections, and the odds clearly favor Biden. I'll be very surprised if Trump actually manages to win this one. But I'll also be surprised if he does not do everything he can to convince people that the elections were rigged. He's not shutting up about voting by mail being fraudulent, ignoring the research that strongly suggests otherwise. Moreover, the election night "results" might show that Trump actually won because way more Democrats than Republicans intend to vote by mail, so their votes won't be counted that fast.  This can spark some protests and recounting of votes in some states, I believe, but Biden has got to win this one in the end. I placed my bet on the Democratic Party winning a while ago on Sportsbet.io, and the odds favor this party even more these days:

[jostorres]

The fact that Trump failed to find any dirt on Biden or tried to actually make him look like Hillary Clinton, an unwanted even by democrats, created the biggest trouble for him, plus before this elections Trump was unknown whereas now he has 4 years of presidency so he can't lie about what he "will do" because he did what he did and you know him.

So, the odds of him winning being very low is right, 13% is quite low as well, so I would say it is not a shock that people assume Trump will be losing this election is not that shocking, it is totally understandable. However this is a two person election (well third parties would never win but they are there too) so obviously even though Trump has a tiny 13% chance that still obviously means he has a chance, no matter how small he is still there.

[Vishnu.Reang]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating. Recent opinion polls show that Trump is now leading in swing states such as Florida and Arizona. But then again, these two states can't guarantee him a victory. He needs to win states such as Pennsylvania. At least in PA, Joe Biden is still leading comfortably. In the end, everything will come down to turnout. If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily, then they may stay at home and make things difficult for Biden/Harris.

[Timelord2067]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating. Recent opinion polls show that Trump is now leading in swing states such as Florida and Arizona. But then again, these two states can't guarantee him a victory. He needs to win states such as Pennsylvania. At least in PA, Joe Biden is still leading comfortably. In the end, everything will come down to turnout. If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily, then they may stay at home and make things difficult for Biden/Harris.

I heard an opinion piece on the BBC World Service overnight, the Republicans (who normally predominantly vote postal) are voting early in person while the Democrats (who normally vote early in person) are lodging postal votes so it will be interesting what kinds of voter turn out there are on the day - especially given each state has it's own laws on how ballots are conducted in their states.  (That and the threat of challenges to the postal voting via the courts) 

What happened in 2016 may be repeating.

Agreed - people might be saying they're not voting Trump, but will do so anyway.

[FinneysTrueVision]

What happened in 2016 may be repeating.

Agreed - people might be saying they're not voting Trump, but will do so anyway.

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

[Timelord2067]

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

In a little over ten or twelve days we'll know one way or the other whether or not those people who've been polled this time around were being coy about who they're going to vote for or not as the case may be.

I'm only an outside observer not living in the US, but to my outside eyes it looks as though the polls will be wrong again.

[STT]

Polls only estimate and the process of a poll doesnt match the election so its an indicator along with a few others.   Hilary Clinton was especially unpopular with some parts of the voting population which made swing voters have greater bias then normal is how I take that.   In politics they especially avoid answering difficult questions or controversial issues to avoid losing votes like that, some things they cant dodge but really they are trying to collect a vote from everybody to some extent.   From what Ive seen Biden is trying to do that, he resembles that side of politics quite often and we may not like the question dodging or ambigiuility but its done for a reason; my take is Biden is far less upsetting to the middle ground.

If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily,

They dont, I think the hornets nest got a good shake.  Its about the middle ground or undecided/new voters perhaps, I'll go with Mark Twain we rarely exactly repeat.

[bryant.coleman]

That's not what happened in 2016. People who keep talking about 'shy Trump voters' are trying to sell you snake oil. The polls were off in a few states four years ago because they under sampled white voters white voters without college education. There was also not as much money invested in quality polling in those rust belt states that Trump barely won because they were considered deep blue states that weren't in contention. This time around there is more polling and they've also adjusted their sampling of demographics that were underrepresented in the last election.

Well... this may be true. I don't think that Trump is in the same position in the rust belt states, as he was in 2016. He has a lot of support in the suburban areas and from white women. The rural and male voters are with him, but most of the other demographic groups have shifted to Democrats. To put it frankly, I don't think that he'll be able to carry any of the rust-belt states this time.

[ice098]

Polls only estimate and the process of a poll doesnt match the election so its an indicator along with a few others.   Hilary Clinton was especially unpopular with some parts of the voting population which made swing voters have greater bias then normal is how I take that.   In politics they especially avoid answering difficult questions or controversial issues to avoid losing votes like that, some things they cant dodge but really they are trying to collect a vote from everybody to some extent.   From what Ive seen Biden is trying to do that, he resembles that side of politics quite often and we may not like the question dodging or ambigiuility but its done for a reason; my take is Biden is far less upsetting to the middle ground.

If the Democrat voters believe that Biden is winning easily,

They dont, I think the hornets nest got a good shake.  Its about the middle ground or undecided/new voters perhaps, I'll go with Mark Twain we rarely exactly repeat.

Polls will only determined the supporters of each candidates but this polls doesn't mean a 100% so sure that if the one who has the highest poll rate will surely gonna win in election result. Sometimes polls mean a satisfactional rate of people towards the public service of a candidate that has been in position or recently been in position or been in position. In terms of Biden and Trumph maybe the poll rates has been favored in Trumph but we can't tell what will gonna happen in the election.

[covfefe_]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

As a result of the electoral college system, the results from 3-4 states will decide the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections. In terms of importance, these states are: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Trump needs to win at least 3 out of these 4. If he loses 2 of these states, then Biden wins. I would even say that the winner of Pennsylvania will decide the outcome. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, then he becomes the POTUS. If Trump wins the state, then he gets 4 more years.

[celot]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

Now there is no such thing as media with upholding their code of ethics, there is no more neutral term for media in any country. There is always a partiality for one of the contestants who pays them a high price. Likewise, what happened in the United States where at the time of the election five years ago between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton many media supported him but the results were nil during the vote and Donald Trump became the winner. Even though the media polls support Joe Bidden, it is likely that the same thing will happen in the United States election this time, Donald Trump will win easily, especially since he is one of the controversial presidents who have no compromise at all with China.

[Juggy777]

Opinion polls on last election were showing Hillary Clinton as a clear winner but the results turned out to be different. No media in US are neutral enough and all of their polls are biased to some extent. And the Electoral college counting system in US means it's not always the popular candidate or the candidate who gets the most votes wins. In the last election it was Hillary Clinton who got the most votes and it was Donald Trump who became the president due to the electoral college system.

As a result of the electoral college system, the results from 3-4 states will decide the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections. In terms of importance, these states are: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Trump needs to win at least 3 out of these 4. If he loses 2 of these states, then Biden wins. I would even say that the winner of Pennsylvania will decide the outcome. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, then he becomes the POTUS. If Trump wins the state, then he gets 4 more years.

@covfefe_ according to Guardian article Biden is leading in the national polls, but they have cautioned that these polls cannot be trusted and therefore people should take these polls with a pinch of salt. Also if we were to take a hypothetical situation and assume that these polls are right, then Biden definitely would win by a huge margin, but in that scenario can anyone confirm that Trump will peacefully hand over the power to Biden? (as he’s already giving signs that he won’t but what do you’ll think?).

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/trump-wont-commit-to-peaceful-transfer-of-power-if-he-loses-the-election.html

[emrecemsan]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

[erikoy]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with you. Trump here had already been influencial since he had the position already and he could use it as his advantage as a current or incumbent president. Biden may have good support too from the people but not really like Trump.

Here in our place the election happen with some sort of cheating. Like there is a recorded conversation from the comelec chair and that signs a possible manipulation of the voting result. So sad that it was done by a former president or was even elected but ousted after they get compromised of their doings which is to sabotage the result of the National election.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I have not heard any convincing theories as to why some people seem so certain that Trump will win. He has a very low approval rating.

Biden might not be the best candidate but he is certainly better than Clinton and is polling several percentage points higher than she was at this point. Last election you couldn't turn on the news without hearing about Clinton's emails. She was also not seen as a very genuine person. We've also seen in the midterm elections that the Republicans did not do very well.

I don't think that a Biden win is guaranteed but when I look at it rationally most of the evidence seems to point in that direction.

[bryant.coleman]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I would definitely agree on that. Biden is a weaker candidate when compared to Hillary. But that can be beneficial for him in a way. Back in 2016, Hillary polarized the electorate. The polarization is still there, but not at the same level.

BTW, I have noticed some interesting changes in the poll situation. Nationally Biden remains well ahead of Trump, and the ratings for both the candidates have been stable. But the race has changed its course in some of the battle-ground states. And the outcome from these states will decide who will be the next president.

For example, Biden was leading from Florida and North Carolina until now. But now many polls are showing Trump in the lead. Also, according to data from Hawkfish, the Democrat advantage from postal voting is being reduced heavily as the Republican voters are flocking to do early voting. Check this:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

 

[jademaxsuy]

<snip>

So what really is Biden stand against Trump? I see other posts and replies that Biden has high chance of winning compare to Trump for he had greater support from the community. Others are stating the opposite too because Trump has greater support of community.

Are there any surveys that could be trusted on giving results? There are platform already to be use in betting this presidential event that could participate on. Actually there is a shared links here that are also open for betting on this presidential election.

[MWesterweele]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with you. Trump here had already been influencial since he had the position already and he could use it as his advantage as a current or incumbent president. Biden may have good support too from the people but not really like Trump.

Here in our place the election happen with some sort of cheating. Like there is a recorded conversation from the comelec chair and that signs a possible manipulation of the voting result. So sad that it was done by a former president or was even elected but ousted after they get compromised of their doings which is to sabotage the result of the National election.

That is what powers can do. They can manipulate the possible result and even controlled it. They are who in the currently elected and in position right now has a more advantage than the incumbent candidate. Though the success of one incumbent were solely depend upon the vote of the people if they were satisfied on the service that the president pay or not, i do believe also that if you have money can buy whatever you want even the vote of the people, and that's what we called vote buying.

[bitgolden]

People are forgetting that before 2016 we never had a Trump presidency, nobody knew what would happen and people hated DNC for picking Hillary over Bernie when Bernie was the one who should have been nominated, it is the same right now as well since Bernie got a lot more money and a lot more supporters but Biden won yet he is not hated as much as Hillary.

The stark difference is, people who were progressive left leaved the election in 2016 empty, there was about 5% from the whole nation that literally voted either other party or absentee just as a protest against DNC, none of them are doing that right now.

Plus, we should also realize that there are more people ALREADY VOTED right now than people who voted for Trump, they are driving in herds to vote to get rid of him. I am not only saying Trump will lose, but I will say this; he will lose by a record breaking difference unseen in decades.

[tyz]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I agree with you that Biden is also a weak candidate like Clinton. In the spring, I would have said that Trump will definitely win. But his handling of Corona and the subsequent economic crisis will mean that Biden will win. I'm pretty sure about it. I may be wrong, but if you use purely objective factors, then it shouldn't be enough for Trump to win.

[emrecemsan]

Honestly, I think that Trump is elected as president will not be a surprise. Most people writing o this topic reminded us of Trump's surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 election. I also believe that a similar scenario is waiting for us. After all, Biden is a much weaker candidate than Clinton in my opinion.

I agree with you that Biden is also a weak candidate like Clinton. In the spring, I would have said that Trump will definitely win. But his handling of Corona and the subsequent economic crisis will mean that Biden will win. I'm pretty sure about it. I may be wrong, but if you use purely objective factors, then it shouldn't be enough for Trump to win.

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

[bryant.coleman]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

[Oneandpure]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

A week before the presidential campaign of the United States, the two candidates Donald Trump and Joe Bidden have each prepared themselves to attract sympathizers from the votes of the United States people. Donald Trump will start his inaugural campaign in the Michigan state, which will certainly be a very important moment for Trump to regain the important position and win the Michigan state as he won the full vote five years ago. Joe Bidden is also very confident to be able to beat Donald Trump's defense and become President of the United States in the next five years, Joe Bidden started the campaign in a part of Georgia where the majority of supporters of the Republican party, will be a very great reminder between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden for became president of the United States.

[notblox1]

techcrunch.com

Donald Trump official website was hacked and hackers asked for payments in monero, claiming they have information that Trump was involved in origin of corona virus and that he is manipulating us elections.
They posted FBI parody image this site has been seized message

Read full report from techcrunch website:
https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/27/trumps-campaign-website-hacked-by-cryptocurrency-scammers/

[STT]

I don't think that a Biden win is guaranteed but when I look at it rationally most of the evidence seems to point in that direction.

Trump needs the diversity in states won across the country and he lacks the larger popular vote numbers to appear large in polls.   So lacking votes to clinch a win in a variety of states won last time puts the whole win into jeopardy for him, just 1 particular state by itself isnt a deal breaker but a trend or streak of of states won in 2016 now missing would probably seal his fate on this.

Early voting in the US election has now topped 70 million, more than half of the total turnout in 2016

Lots of early voting makes sense but seems like we might have a higher turn out this time also as both sides sense its close.  In 2016 there was apathy and some just determined to avoid both candidates was my take at the time.   So far Ive not noticed Biden making too many notable negative headlines or sticking points, obviously in comparison to the usual mud slinging in any contest.

[emrecemsan]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

You are right, it got distracted for a moment, but I stand behind what I said. Republicans have been winning in Georgia since 1992, but this time that could change. When I look at the survey results, I see that the state of Texas is also in a critical situation.

[asus09]

Whether there is a betting site between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden that is worthy of becoming president of the United States, it seems interesting enough to have Donald Trump return to serving as president of the United States in his second term. Almost the same as what happened to the previous president Barack Obama who was able to become president of the United States twice in a row, I think the same thing was followed by Donald Trump who was able to win this time against Joe Bidden. If there is a bet I would rather place on Donald Trump.

[FinneysTrueVision]

I keep thinking that Trump still has a puncher's chance but he just can't help himself from making unforced errors. The latest one is from last night when he left his supporters stranded out in the cold. It might not have been his fault but it just looks bad and keeps Biden's gaffes out of the headlines. Biden's strategy of running out the clock might just be enough to get the victory.

[figmentofmyass]

fivethirtyeight dropped trump's odds to 11%---wow. betfair still has him at 34%.

Early voting in the US election has now topped 70 million, more than half of the total turnout in 2016

Lots of early voting makes sense but seems like we might have a higher turn out this time also as both sides sense its close.

most democrats say they are voting early, while most republicans say they will vote on election day. how true both of those claims are will make a big difference.

there are some early signs that the democrat advantage associated with early voter turnout is being overstated. and if republicans really do show up on election day in those numbers, then the race becomes much more competitive. https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/522939-early-voting-trends-show-democrats-falling-short-in-3-of-4

Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day. If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.

The Elect Project indicates Democrats are only hitting that mark in one of four battleground states where data on the partisan breakdown of early voters is available.

If Biden's polling edge in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin holds up, then even flipping Nevada would leave Trump five electoral votes short at 264. However, reports of the Democrats’ edge in mail in votes is exaggerated due to noncompetitive states like California where 2.9 million Democrats and only 1.1 million Republicans have voted early. If 72 percent of Republicans really are waiting until Election Day to vote the race becomes very close.

A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on Election Day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID-19, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double-digit loss.

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning Election Day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70 percent to 30 percent edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.

[bbc.reporter]

This article published on November 8, 2016 which was the day of the election for that year. There were many polls, news and reasons that created fake storyboards for a Hillary victory.

I reckon in 6 days we might witness how deceitful and devious the mainstream fakenews media are again.

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
Last updated Tuesday, November 8 at 10:20 PM ET

Source https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

[sana54210]

What democrats are doing very very different these days is the fact that they are going places they have never been before and never really cared about. I am not saying states like Texas or Florida never been democrat, they have been and quite possibly could be soon as well (now or on next ones) but they didn't spend that much money on it because they assumed it would be better to spend it on swing states to make it work for them better, sorf of like efficiency thing, why spend 10 million on Texas to gain maybe 1 point and still lose when you can spend that 10 million on 3 states and swing it to you potentially?

But, nowadays they are doing so much better in economics thanks to everyone hating Trump and donating to Biden, so they are doing tons of work on all states which makes republicans spend their only left over money on places like Texas and Florida to keep what they have and not focus on what they could.

[Pulsar77]

There are too many people here who think Trump will win. I also know he surprised in 2016, but that doesn't mean President Trump can always surprise. This time there is a very strong opposition to him. Even though the former president, Obama, did not like Biden during his presidency, now even he is holding a rally for Biden.

[bbc.reporter]

@Pulsar77. Source of where you read that Obama did not like Biden during his administration? I know they trusted each other very much to have Biden present when Obama requested for the FBI director to spy on Trump after he leaves his post.

[tbterryboy]

It is not about polls or not even about news media, it is all about data that you can collect that is probably true that should allow you to see what you can in the results, obviously the only true situation that you should accept the results would be the official ones, when the results are in we will all know what is going on, before that you should never assume anything, not a month ago, not a year ago and not a week before the elections neither, anything could happen.

Right now all the pointers are showing Biden winning, not just because Biden is a good candidate, which I think he is maybe decent at best, not even good but he doesn't look terrible neither, but mainly because there are A LOT MORE trump haters today than there were 4 years ago, polls are showing millions of people vote "against trump" instead of "for Biden" and many experts say that this could be enough for Biden to win, as long as people hate trump, the only option is Biden and he could become president just because there was no other candidate not named trump.

[Savemore]

It is not about polls or not even about news media, it is all about data that you can collect that is probably true that should allow you to see what you can in the results, obviously the only true situation that you should accept the results would be the official ones, when the results are in we will all know what is going on, before that you should never assume anything, not a month ago, not a year ago and not a week before the elections neither, anything could happen.

Right now all the pointers are showing Biden winning, not just because Biden is a good candidate, which I think he is maybe decent at best, not even good but he doesn't look terrible neither, but mainly because there are A LOT MORE trump haters today than there were 4 years ago, polls are showing millions of people vote "against trump" instead of "for Biden" and many experts say that this could be enough for Biden to win, as long as people hate trump, the only option is Biden and he could become president just because there was no other candidate not named trump.

Actually there are a lot of fake data around the internet so we should not purely base out information there because there are really certain people who are trolling and spreading fake news. The two candidates are keep bashing each other to their past mistakes, what I like is seeing their recent debates because you will see who is really the worth and deserve the title "president". I know that trump have a lot of haters but it doesn't mean that Biden will surely get the position, Trump already proved that he can do imaginable things and he has the Winner mentality and my prediction is Trump will win again in presidential election.

I recently saw the supporters of trump which are hella a lot, a lot of entrepreneurs and businessman also like trump because of his mentality. Anyway, He already proved in the past year of his administration that he can do a lot of things. Actually the stock market is keep creating all time high because of what he keep doing.

[mu_enrico]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

[Juggy777]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

@mu_enrico circumstances are way different for this election, because this pendamic has turned the tide in Biden’s favour, and now people don’t care about his age because for them Trump needs to go. Furthermore it’s a little late, but US economy did rebound in q3, but I’m not sure if it’ll be enough for voters to come out and vote for Trump?. Lastly as I keep repeating that Indo Americans are with Biden, and that’s why I feel that he’s very close to winning this election.

Sources:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/28/new-polling-shows-how-pandemic-is-hobbling-trumps-reelection-chances/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-5e4005b14bfdba6eb2d339b188975410

[mu_enrico]

Yo @Juggy777, are you seriously citing "fake news" in Trump vs Biden discussion
Okay, seriously, the "Biden Gaffe" is pretty scary, and it's everywhere on Youtube.
And to think Trump is worse than a warmonger Bush jr. (who won 2nd term) is just irrational IMO, especially with Biden as the opponent.

[bbc.reporter]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.



On Monday it was uncovered that VP Biden and his wife colluded to suppress Hunter’s actions with a certain minor.  On Tuesday we uncovered information showing how Hunter put his family at risk for Russian Blackmail after participating in seedy actions in West Hollywood with at least one Russian woman.   On Wednesday we reported that Hunter took pictures exposing himself in the presence of a minor.  This morning we reported that Hunter was accused of “Walking Around Naked Watching Porn Masturbating and Doing Drugs” in front of a minor.

This all is on top of accusations of Hunter being involved in the Vice President’s pay-for-play scandal around the world while the VP was in office.  No Hunter does not appear to be all the VP claimed he was.

A shocking piece of information in this squalid story is found on Hunter’s site.  The picture of the woman’s behind on his PornHub home page is that of a family member!

Source https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/huge-breaking-exclusive-hunter-biden-pornhub-account-uploaded-personal-porn-including-family-members/

[STT]

My perception of Trump is all bark no bite, somehow and I know its totally ironic he seems to have avoided war.   As I understand it Russia likes his general policy to retract troops from various advanced positions as they perceive this is a lesser threat to their interests and influence in various regions, its hard to call exactly but I dont remember much war occuring beyond this latest Armenia dispute perhaps and thats long term.

Biden was 100 to 1 at the start of this year as he struggled to gain nomination confidence, should have taken that one but not sure I saw it personally.      Lowest odds for Trump now is about 34% apparently but often much higher which is kinda surprising but he does retain the standing advantage of being the present command in chief.      I dont count either side as a strong candidate anyhow, I didnt last time either.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn

[figmentofmyass]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

trump is so old, he opened the door wide open for biden.

i hear ya regarding the incumbent bit. i do think this year is quite different though, mainly because voters are so active in this election, as early turnout and mail balloting shows. high turnout is traditionally bad for republicans, and the jury is still out on whether republicans will truly show up in numbers on election day.

combined with unfavorable polling in battleground states for trump, he has maybe a 15-20% chance of winning in my eyes. since the betting markets are pricing him closer to 34%, i just don't see any value there.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I agree with the previous posts, but I am noticing some red flags for Biden.

1. Early voting was expected to give a huge advantage to Biden. But in most of the swing states, that hasn't happened. For example, as of 31st October, the difference in early voting as per party registration in Florida was just +116,051 for the Democrats. Back in 2016, the advantage in early elections was +90,111 for them. A small difference is there, but nothing like we expected. Same is the case with states such as AZ and NV.

Actually Democrats are behind in Nevada as per early voting data. Back in 2016, early voting as per registration was as following: Dem - 324,293, GOP - 278,668. Difference: +45,625. In 2020, respective figures are 395,873, 357,468 and +38,405.

2. Biden's blunder regarding fracking ban came at a time when just 22% of the votes in PA was cast. It will have a big impact there.

3. Even opinion polls are showing that the race is tightening in states such as AZ, FL, OH and IA.
 

[FinneysTrueVision]

https://us.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn

https://i.imgur.com/XUoxo8M.png

Looking through the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings it says that Trafalgar has an accuracy rate of 75% which isn't too bad but not enough to really be considered a high quality pollster. They only seem to do better than the traditional pollsters when an unexpected outcome favors a Republican in tight races. This seems like more of a fluke based on having a Republican bias rather than them doing anything special compared to everyone else.

[bryant.coleman]

Looking through the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings it says that Trafalgar has an accuracy rate of 75% which isn't too bad but not enough to really be considered a high quality pollster. They only seem to do better than the traditional pollsters when an unexpected outcome favors a Republican in tight races. This seems like more of a fluke based on having a Republican bias rather than them doing anything special compared to everyone else.

Well.. less than 24 hours left to know whether Trafalgar is accurate or not. Tomorrow at this time, the results will start coming in. The first set of result will be from these six states: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Out of these six, only Georgia is important. 30 minutes later, the counting will start in two crucial states - North Carolina and Ohio. West Virginia will also start counting at the same time. Results from Floroda and a few of the other states will come in from 5pm California time onwards.

[rdbase]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?


We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

[ralle14]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?

That line seems similar to steve's multi magic, 4 legged with a slight boost in odds. 

Most of the odds are in favor of the Democratic party except for Florida which is sitting at +110 or 2.1. For me the chance of all four hitting is probably somewhere 10%-20%.

We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

I think so, most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

[bryant.coleman]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?


We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

Other states are OK. But Pennsylvania may take at least 2-3 weeks to count all the postal ballots. Many of the county officials have already said this. Florida has one of the best systems out there, and the counting should be very fast. Close to 100% of the ballots there may be counted by 4th morning. North Carolina officials are saying that around 97% of the votes will be counted by election day night. Now coming to the last state (Arizona), they have already started counting the postal ballots. However, there is a set of "late" absentee ballots, which may not be counted on election day night.

[asus09]

I don't care who are the winner in United State election between Donald Trump versus Joe Bidden because give most extremely impact for bitcoin and altcoin going down, almost each five years when United State election day make we have see bitcoin and altcoin in lower price, now become true bitcoin and altcoin going down before one day of election and give most impact after know who is the winner between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden, I was very surprised why bitcoin and other currency could dump with election in United State, basicly there are not have stronger bitcoin and altcoin community and US country is not friendly for bitcoin and altcoin as currency transaction but why could make bitcoin going down.

[Vishnu.Reang]

LOL.. today is the election day and the vast majority of the Americans have already cast their ballots. Some 98.8 million people have voted till now (the turnout for 2016 was 136.7 million). Projected turnout is 150 million, that means we may witness some 50 million people casting their votes today. In almost all the battle-ground states, majority of the ballots have been cast already. There are two exceptions - Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In these two states, the majority of the votes will be cast today, in person.

[yazher]

LOL.. today is the election day and the vast majority of the Americans have already cast their ballots. Some 98.8 million people have voted till now (the turnout for 2016 was 136.7 million). Projected turnout is 150 million, that means we may witness some 50 million people casting their votes today. In almost all the battle-ground states, majority of the ballots have been cast already. There are two exceptions - Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In these two states, the majority of the votes will be cast today, in person.

The result would likely go for Trump to win this election and one more thing about this election is the result might shown to us today but they already know who gonna win the election. If they have another Trump in the next 3 years, then their country will not gonna face some major issues as we've never seen before.

[mu_enrico]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.

There are scandals from both sides, so I'm not really into it.
I only focus on how weak Biden is, about his dementia/gaffes and decades as a politician. Democrats could win this election by simply picking a more likable, smart, new, and energetic candidate, considering so many people hate Trump. I think the Dems made a blunder again, just like they did with Hillary.

"Fake news" always assume the early democrat vote is all for Biden, but who knows? I'm not really following US politics, though. I'm just comparing both candidates, apple to apple. Anyway, the world is cheering for Trump to win this election since he made so many memes 

[Vishnu.Reang]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.

There are scandals from both sides, so I'm not really into it.
I only focus on how weak Biden is, about his dementia/gaffes and decades as a politician. Democrats could win this election by simply picking a more likable, smart, new, and energetic candidate, considering so many people hate Trump. I think the Dems made a blunder again, just like they did with Hillary.

"Fake news" always assume the early democrat vote is all for Biden, but who knows? I'm not really following US politics, though. I'm just comparing both candidates, apple to apple. Anyway, the world is cheering for Trump to win this election since he made so many memes 

Well.. that's what they did in 2016. They nominated a candidate, who is not electable. If they had anyone else as the Democrat nominee, then I doubt whether Donald Trump would have won states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. This time, they picked a moderate in Joe Biden. But still, Kamala Harris as the VP pick was a mistake in my opinion. She is too far to the left. They could have chosen someone who is younger and charismatic.

[STT]

most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

Legally perhaps but I presume much sooner then that and in theory one candidate is supposed to concede once clear for the good of democracy etc.
The result is more likely known sooner then later, the times we've not had a good idea whose won for day or weeks later has been a rarity.   Last time in 2016 it was an upset but it was also fairly clear early on, I might be missing the delay from posted votes this time perhaps but I think we'll have a good idea if Trump has any chance to repeat the college win over the popular.

Spotted this showing good calls happen fairly early:

I have to count this cycle as a good one for betting.   I bet mostly at the end when Biden odds were 2 to 1  and also I saw Trump at 2.75 to 1 and both probabilities cant be true at the same time which means its a net sum
positive bet and I win either way woot      Pretty sure I put down enough so Im leaning towards a Biden win but also so that I cant lose more then I gain from either outcome.     College, popular, polling and betting amounts all have varying sum to their probability of outcome, I think I took the best course considering.

[Oneandpure]

most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

Legally perhaps but I presume much sooner then that and in theory one candidate is supposed to concede once clear for the good of democracy etc.
The result is more likely known sooner then later, the times we've not had a good idea whose won for day or weeks later has been a rarity.   Last time in 2016 it was an upset but it was also fairly clear early on, I might be missing the delay from posted votes this time perhaps but I think we'll have a good idea if Trump has any chance to repeat the college win over the popular.

Spotted this showing good calls happen fairly early:

I have to count this cycle as a good one for betting.   I bet mostly at the end when Biden odds were 2 to 1  and also I saw Trump at 2.75 to 1 and both probabilities cant be true at the same time which means its a net sum
positive bet and I win either way woot      Pretty sure I put down enough so Im leaning towards a Biden win but also so that I cant lose more then I gain from either outcome.     College, popular, polling and betting amounts all have varying sum to their probability of outcome, I think I took the best course considering.

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

[hd49728]

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

I think Trump did his work very impressive on many areas in his first 4 years from financial, labor to political areas. Exception is the pandemic and public health problems in the US. I am not a US citizen so I can not judge about his decision to cope with the pandemic in the nation. It looks in the nation, there are two sides, support and oppose him on the pandemic issue. It is the most serious problem he has in this President election.

I agree totally that only Trump is be able and will be able to fight with China, and prevent China to expand their territories and power too fast in next decade. Trump fights China on many area, army, economy, to academic areas.

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win. I wish the US citizen will vote the right President for them, for their need in next 4 years.

[tomahawk9]

Just caught a shift in the odds on Sportsbet.io: Earlier today, Biden @1.65--> now @1.55. Trump @2.20 ---> now @2.40

Last minute whales going all-in on Biden? or did the media just release some new poll results and they're favoring Biden? maybe new Florida polls are going live, idk...could also be a trap and bookies are just trying to get the noobs to put money on the main favorite, trying to offset all that money going to Trump 😂

[rdbase]

^^
I'd hold off on that one. Counting has concluded in New Hampshire and biden won in dixville notch but trump won in millsfield.
There has been 139 million people who voted in the previous election which was the record.
This one has had 100 million votes so far and still the entire day left for them to put in their ballots.

[RealMalatesta]

Knowing the winner on election night (or a day later) is not really a topic for anyone anyway. What we already know is "unofficial" results very quickly, when you get a result from few states that should be the important swing results, you get the idea, like do you really need to wait for California and New York to finish counting? We know who they voted for right? So at the end of the day we do get unofficial results very quickly and official one can come later on.

What the topic here that Trump is trying to make is the fact that if he wins, he wins and there is no story there, he could milk it even after he won (he complained about voter fraud after he won in 2016) but it is not a big deal. However if he loses, he will do everything in his power to make it look like he actually won but there was fraud that made him "look like he lost" instead of actually losing.

[uneng]

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

I think Trump did his work very impressive on many areas in his first 4 years from financial, labor to political areas. Exception is the pandemic and public health problems in the US. I am not a US citizen so I can not judge about his decision to cope with the pandemic in the nation. It looks in the nation, there are two sides, support and oppose him on the pandemic issue. It is the most serious problem he has in this President election.

I agree totally that only Trump is be able and will be able to fight with China, and prevent China to expand their territories and power too fast in next decade. Trump fights China on many area, army, economy, to academic areas.

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win. I wish the US citizen will vote the right President for them, for their need in next 4 years.

I expected more from Trump. A big part of his 2016 campaign was just propaganda, especially towards the wall, immigration control and about *draining the swamp*.
The establishment is still strong as are the lobbyists. And I have seen Trump running away from such questions when confronted with his 2016's speech. I don't see Trump the same way I did in 2016, for me he isn't a solution anymore, but just the system maintenance. However, it's not a reason or an excuse to endorse any democrat for presidency. If I were an U.S citizen I wouldn't get involved on this election as I don't pretend to get involved in my country's politics never more in my life.

At least with gambling, and especially crypto gambling, everyone can make some profit with these dirty politics and not only the liars who are the candidates and their lackeys.

[Fortify]

Early voting is showing a 66% to 33% weighting in Biden's favor. Any betters out there will surely be going for a Biden win and all indications show Trump is increasingly looking unlikely to win. He will try to cling on to power like a vulture, but hopefully there is enough votes to present a clear winner. I've watched the betting odds recently and they are really going against Trump the closer we get to the election day.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Well.. that's what they did in 2016. They nominated a candidate, who is not electable. If they had anyone else as the Democrat nominee, then I doubt whether Donald Trump would have won states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. This time, they picked a moderate in Joe Biden. But still, Kamala Harris as the VP pick was a mistake in my opinion. She is too far to the left. They could have chosen someone who is younger and charismatic.

I don't think Kamala has played too much of a factor in this election. She is a lot like Hillary in that she will take the position that is most politically convenient. When she was attorney general of California she was a strict law and order candidate but then she became senator and moved to the left. She does seem more popular than Pence though, who is as bland as you can get.

[STT]

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win.

Just caught a shift in the odds on Sportsbet.io: Earlier today, Biden @1.65--> now @1.55. Trump @2.20 ---> now @2.40

Last minute whales going all-in on Biden?

My general take on crypto bettors is they have some bias to the right or even to Trump himself and seem to rate Trump chances too high.   In a year when this many jobs have been put into jeopardy whoevers fault that might be, doesnt matter it very much makes the job up for grabs and at best Trump had 50% odds so I was surprised some place to see Biden rated so low.     Similarly some people have bias to Biden when they shouldnt to that extent, its still not certain but I'd blame the liberal media for feeding that bias.

[Timelord2067]

The Australian ABC is saying Biden has 190 college votes to Trumps 77 votes, but it's "too close to call" given the West Coast polls don't close for another three hours.



(The two compares are discussion Florida in the screen grab)

[bbc.reporter]

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

[Timelord2067]

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

Perhaps - I've just checked in again, it's looking at 4pm AEST (GMT +10) Biden 226 to Trump 175:  (not sure where the two count difference is unless it's a different State being counted i.e. 5 not 3)



Might be a few more hours before we know for certain.  The gap is definitely closing, but over-take ??

[NotATether]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina are all leading with Trump votes at the moment, and with large margins of 5 million votes. Odds on Sportsbet has dropped to 2.75 - 1.40 for Trump - Biden. That’s a huge change from 1.65 - 2.40 odds that were displayed yesterday. All of these states have half or less amounts of electoral votes than Florida, so it just became harder for Biden to win.

No swing states have flipped yet as far as I can tell.

[Timelord2067]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina are all leading with Trump votes at the moment, and with large margins of 5 million votes. Odds on Sportsbet has dropped to 2.75 - 1.40 for Trump - Biden. That’s a huge change from 1.65 - 2.40 odds that were displayed yesterday. All of these states have half or less amounts of electoral votes than Florida, so it just became harder for Biden to win.

No swing states have flipped yet as far as I can tell.

Might be a long night:  I don't know if it's called flipping, but Nebraska has (from what I can tell) a foot in each camp with one vote going to the Democrats.



The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

[hd49728]

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

[Timelord2067]

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

Associated Press and Fox news have just given Arizona to Biden, so assuming Biden picks up Wisconsin and Michigan Trump won't win even if he picks up Pennsylvania. (and Georgia, South Carolina & Alaska)


And all counting has now finalised for the evening.

[casperBGD]

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

as it is as of now, it seems that Georgia will be a key state to watch, Trump leads in Pensylvania by a lot, and it is hard to expect that Michigan or Wisconsin will be overturned as well
nevertheless, Trump declared victory and accused Democrats of a fraud

[Timelord2067]

... and accused Democrats of a fraud

Trump did that before the election along with the US Postal Service and a plethora of other people, groups and organizations etc.

[casperBGD]

it is now 238 vs 213 with following still to come:


Nevada (6) - 50,25% Biden, 47,64% Trump
Wisconsin (10) - 47,44% Biden, 51,05% Trump
Michigan (16) - 45,14% Biden, 53,25% Trump
Pennsylvania (20) - 43,27% Biden, 55,74% Trump (75% percent counted)
North Carolina (15) - 48,69% Biden, 50,09% Trump - all counted
Georgia (16) - 48,03% Biden, 50,66% Trump - 99% counted
Alaska (3) - Trump has over 60%, but only 30% counted

seems that will be close, but Trump will win, Biden needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania - at least two overturned, with one Electoral vote from Nebraska crucial if Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin, to have 270
 
edit: big moment, with 89% votes counted, Biden just overturned Wisconsin to blue state, 49,3% to 49,0%, it is now just Michigan - where it is now 51,9% to 46,4% for Trump

[adamvp]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race :

https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION-05NOV20

[rdbase]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race

The odds have suddenly shifted in biden's favor it seems for now.
Looking at the bookies they have him @1.28x odds right now.

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

Not according to the odds makers he is not. Biden seems to have won some states after the counting has concluded.

[bisdak40]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race

So, the score at the moment is conclusive already on who will win? I bet for Trump at 1.45 odds just few hours ago not knowing that Biden already taken the lead.

Have not followed politics in the US, just bet for Trump  .

[Captain Corporate]

 Well if it is going to make any of you feel better, the "official" results will probably not be available until a month later or so, the reason is that some are counted a lot later than usual, like early voting not starting until election day type of stuff, but also there is a lot of laws that states certain order of counting the ballots which all comes down to at least this friday for ALL of them to be counted. On top of that it is obvious that if Biden wins Trump will use supreme court which he packed very recently and will try to get it back, even if Trump wins we may see some shenanigans and since he is the president until January, we are going to see a lot of idle moments.

 This is of course is just a guess, maybe in 12 hours everything will be known, it will probably be like that but it will be unofficial so your bets may not get credited. Everything is still in play right now, anyone could win, there is no guarantee over who is going to win, and that is why I think it is quite important to not feel happy or sad about your bets just yet.

[mu_enrico]

Wisconsin   5%   173,000   20,748   Biden
Georgia   6%   301,000   102,212   Trump
Michigan   6%   325,000   9,505   Biden
North C.   6%   348,000   76,712   Trump
Nevada   33%   589,000   7,647   Biden
Pennsylvania   36%   3,123,000   560,010   Trump
Alaska   55%   210,000   51,382   Trump

Source.
It looks like Biden is going to win this election... sad underdog bettors! Very close!
Well, it can flip both sides, but MSM said the late ballots are mainly democrats.

[adamvp]

According to https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner Biden has 81% chances for win now!
Wow, trading on bets was as good occasion as shorting shitcoins

[tyz]

According to https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner Biden has 81% chances for win now!
Wow, trading on bets was as good occasion as shorting shitcoins

The problem with these numbers is that it assumes that the majority of the postal votes go to Biden. Should that be more balanced, Trump could win the tight Nevada in addition to Pennsylvannia, Georgia and North Carolina (where he currently leads). That would be enough for him, then he can lose Wisconsin and Michigan to Biden.

[mu_enrico]

The problem with these numbers is that it assumes that the majority of the postal votes go to Biden. Should that be more balanced, Trump could win the tight Nevada in addition to Pennsylvannia, Georgia and North Carolina (where he currently leads). That would be enough for him, then he can lose Wisconsin and Michigan to Biden.

This scenario is unlikely to happen since Trump asked his supporter to go out and vote...
Except for Pennsylvania, other battlegrounds states are tight and could flip in an update.

Anyways, It seems Trump decides to bring the issues to court, and a possible recounting in Wisconsin. Not sure when we can get the official result.

[notblox1]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

[STT]

1.45 for Trump and after seeing the data is not a bet I'd take or be tempted by tbh.    Regardless of any idea of support I see the Trump story for a win as an underdog tale even now 4 years later and this is due to the nature of his support and how it has to overwhelm the largest blocks which are with Biden

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Nevada I think is to shut until Thursday first mail delivery to resume counting then, so we could be talking a Friday conclusive result even unofficially.  It is an unusual course of counting all votes being taken in a variety of ways, not everyone agrees and seems lawyers will be busy.   From what I can see I've no reason to doubt the delayed type vote via mail will be included.   I don't know I would assume that is certain to aid Biden, I thought he got more of the early vote.    I think Trump has to get Arizona or its going to be too much of a stretch elsewhere.

Pennsylvania has 3 million votes counted with Trump ahead 12% but also another million votes via mail not counted, etc.

[FinneysTrueVision]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

The polls were off again but I don't think it has anything to do with shy Trump voters as some people were speculating. The biggest factor seems to be voter turnout which was at a historic level. That's something that can drastically change the outcome that we expected because it means there was a lot of people that were not being included in polls, which are mostly based on historic voting patterns.

[adamvp]

yeah, biggest loser of this election are pollsters
BTW Did you see that:


? Very puzzling...

[bbc.reporter]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

[bryant.coleman]

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

[Juggy777]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

@notblox1 Trump’s legal team has already moved to the state courts in few states, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to challenge the results in other states too.

Furthermore this is the first step from Trump’s legal team, because there’s no way to approach the Supreme Court directly, but they can always challenge the outcome of the state courts decision in the Supreme Court, and lastly I’m pretty sure that Amy (newest Supreme Court Jude) will swing the decision in Trump’s favour.

Sources:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/trump-supreme-court-state-courts-434096

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/barrett-recuse-election-supreme-court-scotus-election-fact-check-2020-can-amy-coney-barrett-recuse-the-election/65-9c4bc1e4-8f5b-4007-8d8d-47b169d1a517

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-amy-coney-barrett-confirmation-election-senator-chris-coons/

[hd49728]

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

Even Biden wins the election, the final vote results in all US only show the distorted surveys and news before the election. No easy win for Biden. You are right.
How about these news? All of these make me believe that Trump accusations on faked news are right (not all certainly). I don't think Trump can make a flip and win the election but these news make me surprised, really surprised.

Is the second site is official site of Michigan state government? I am not living in the US so I don't know. Its table is different than theguardian's table.

Can anyone confirm about the mielections.us, please. What is this?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

[bisdak40]

Nevada will be the critical state here and i think, whoever will win in Nevada would become the President.

Does Trump still has a chance here?

[hd49728]

Nevada is important but Arizona is more important for two candidates. Will Trump make very late flip and take over Arizona from Biden? The chance for late flip is low but latest vote counting results shed a light for Trump.

If finally Trump takes it from Biden, Nevada will be not enough to help Biden win the election.

Michigan I am not sure what is happening in Michigan but most of media gave it to Biden. Let's wait till tomorrow.

[STT]

Arizona was key and its likely not come through or able to reverse towards Trump at this point.   Similarly vital results in other swing states did not occur to give a majority looks like.   A relatively close election but I'd agree its almost certainly with Biden right now and I think about 24hr from now it will be absolutely certain.   That just leaves legal appeals etc.  but I dont give that much credence to that avenue

[jostorres]

Arizona is a weird state when it comes to electing a president, or the change they had. This is the state they gave USA Mccain which was a true blooded American that really represented a huge part of conservative world, and Arizona loved him and everything about Arizona was republican for a very very long time.

After he was gone, this state moved to legalize weed, moved to elect democrat house, democrat senator, and democrat president all in one election. We still don't know if Trump has any chance at all because normally I would give Arizona to Trump if I didn't know the situation, but looking at how things turned out, I say it is quite possible that Biden could pull an upset in there as well. This is going to come down to wire in the end but things are looking gloomy for both parties if you ask me, neither should be happy with the results no matter what the results are.

[BTCappu]

There won't be any official results for a long long time, especially considering Trump is arming up judges and courts to file constantly non-stop for every single result, there will be even longer results coming in way later as well. Normally it takes either the same day to about a week later to have a proper answer from state to state (even district to district) but at the end of the day there is really no way to know for sure the exact official result for like at least 2 weeks. Put the courts and judges all giving recounts and official auditing and so forth that makes it postpone even further, I think we are going to have a "winner" by tonight most likely but it is not going to be official at all. And since it will not be official, bets can't be credited right away, it is going to take a while to credit people their winnings until official results come in.

[royalfestus]

The news media are more careful than 2016 with those misleading news. The agitation is high both in USA and other part of the world, no one can tell at the moment where it will end. The internet is very active but the reliable information will come by Friday, earliest. Trump is prepared for court intervention if the result goes against him. Biden seems to be leading with 40 points according to telegraph and no one rules out possible swing before tomorrow

[bbc.reporter]

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

It is called trending a candidate. It is an old campaign trick to discourage voters on a certain candidate. It can also make some people change their votes on the final second hehe. This was why I have always said that no vote is certain until a voter is inside the booth.

[bryant.coleman]

Those who gambled in favor of Biden may not get any of their money immediately. Until the results are certified, the gambling sites are not going to process the rewards. It may take a month or longer than that to confirm Biden's victory, given the huge number of legal challenges initiated by Trump. However, trends indicate that Biden may win PA by a comfortable margin and probably GA as well. Media may call this election for Biden today.

[hd49728]

Biden has huge chances to win the election. If Trump mades a flip and win the election, I will be shocked. Nevertheless, from the big difference of predictions from pollsters and the real election results, I see big support for Trump. The pandemic can has some negative result for him in this election and can play its part for his failure but not make his support falls too much.

If Trump will join the next President election in 2024, I can bet a very interesting race for him. More interesting if Biden decides to join it too. In 2024, Biden will be at his 82 and Trump at 78. 

[FinneysTrueVision]

https://i.imgur.com/64P3fUY.jpg

Nevada will be the critical state here and i think, whoever will win in Nevada would become the President.

Does Trump still has a chance here?

Biden increased his lead there today and most of the remaining votes are in a Democratic county and they're mail-in ballots which tend to be even more favorable to Dems. It's unlikely that Trump can win it but Biden can still afford to lose this state because he still gets to 270 if gets Pennsylvania where he is on pace to win by a few thousand votes.

Trump needs to slightly improve his winning margins in what remains in Arizona. Right now it appears that Biden will take a tiny lead in Georgia but there are still provisional and military ballots out there that could be the deciding factor.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Biden has huge chances to win the election. If Trump mades a flip and win the election, I will be shocked. Nevertheless, from the big difference of predictions from pollsters and the real election results, I see big support for Trump. The pandemic can has some negative result for him in this election and can play its part for his failure but not make his support falls too much.

If Trump will join the next President election in 2024, I can bet a very interesting race for him. More interesting if Biden decides to join it too. In 2024, Biden will be at his 82 and Trump at 78. 

LOL.. Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024. Anyway, he'll be too old by then. Actually I don't expect Trump to remain active in politics, in case he loses. He may retire from politics and go back to his primary profession (business). But things can change. In case Biden is replaced by Kamala Harris within the first few months, then I think Trump may make a comeback.

[abhiseshakana]

Biden increased his lead there today and most of the remaining votes are in a Democratic county and they're mail-in ballots which tend to be even more favorable to Dems. It's unlikely that Trump can win it but Biden can still afford to lose this state because he still gets to 270 if gets Pennsylvania where he is on pace to win by a few thousand votes.

Trump needs to slightly improve his winning margins in what remains in Arizona. Right now it appears that Biden will take a tiny lead in Georgia but there are still provisional and military ballots out there that could be the deciding factor.

The race is still ongoing. Although the remaining states are more favorable for democratic camps, so far Trump is still leading narrowly in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

To win this election, Trump must be able to take Pennsylvania, and any three of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Even though it looks difficult for Trump, but as long as the vote count has not reached the final, anything can still happen.

On the other hand, Biden has more paths to win this battle, at least he only needs to take Pennsylvania or win any two of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.

[hd49728]

LOL.. Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024. Anyway, he'll be too old by then. Actually I don't expect Trump to remain active in politics, in case he loses. He may retire from politics and go back to his primary profession (business). But things can change. In case Biden is replaced by Kamala Harris within the first few months, then I think Trump may make a comeback.

He will be at the age of Biden now (78) in 2024 Election, not older than Biden in this campaign.

The race is still ongoing. Although the remaining states are more favorable for democratic camps, so far Trump is still leading narrowly in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

To win this election, Trump must be able to take Pennsylvania, and any three of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Even though it looks difficult for Trump, but as long as the vote count has not reached the final, anything can still happen.

On the other hand, Biden has more paths to win this battle, at least he only needs to take Pennsylvania or win any two of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.

Georgia is very tight with less than 2000 votes for Biden to beat Trump. I think Trump can win North Carolina but will he can come back with Arizona? And will he keep his leading position in Pensylvania? Biden can win Nevada.

This election is more tight than the election 2016: Trump vs Hillary.

[adamvp]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

[casperBGD]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

yeah, Biden overturn PA, and this seems to be the end for Trump hopes, there is 5% votes more to count, but the trend is obvious and could end up as really good advantage for Biden, i do not expect that PA will go back into Trump, and as someone already pointed out, Decision Desk called Biden as new president

[johhnyUA]

I think the total uncounted votes from US Army are not big but if anyone can give source link to check, it will be interesting.

As i know, there no such information, because soldiers in USA (the same as in Israel) returning to home on elections to vote (some kind of vacation) so there no need for special places for them. And also, as i remember vote of people from another countries or aircraft carriers (which is on their raid) just counting to the whole number of people to the state where soldiers living.

Maybe i'm wrong, but this what i read about it.

[FinneysTrueVision]

The race is over for Trump. He underperformed in the latest batch of votes in Arizona. Biden will increase his lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Georgia by 1585. In Nevada he doubled his lead over Trump.

Anyone here know where to check total votes from US Army? I would like to know vote by mails from US army. Trump is anti-war in his presidency so if the number of vote by mails from US Army is big enough, he can make a flip at 90 minute of the election. This very spinning ending will happen if Biden won't be able to leave Trump behind far enough, Trump still can hope from US Army votes.

I think the total uncounted votes from US Army are not big but if anyone can give source link to check, it will be interesting.

They've already counted most military ballots. Today is the deadline for outstanding ballots to arrive in Georgia and still be counted. There could potentially be enough votes that arrive today for Trump to win the state but it probably won't matter. He's too far behind in other states.

[bitbunnny]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

It seems so. It was tight race and it's still not over yet. Anyway, everyone who bet had almost equal chances to win so from the betting side that was good. Votes are still being counted but as I read news that are coming it looks like it's decided and that US is going to step into changes.

[nikola22]

So it is almost sure America will have new president!
Some Republicans rejected to support Trump's claims.
It seems to Joe Biden  has safe adventage.
No repeat of year 2000 this time.

there are no doubts that Joe Biden is the new US president. all Trump needs is to go away peacefully and without and scandal. if you lose you should do it with dignity. and congtats to all who made their bets on Biden.

[figmentofmyass]

The race is over for Trump. He underperformed in the latest batch of votes in Arizona. Biden will increase his lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Georgia by 1585. In Nevada he doubled his lead over Trump.

it sure looks that way. betfair punters are now pricing trump's chances at 3-4%.

it's been a roller coaster though. i remember seeing his chances as high as 70% on election night, when the count in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania were temporarily in his favor.

i expected that any close election would end with recount/lawsuit drama, and we'll see that unfold in the coming weeks i'm sure, but the chances of a reversal via that route are slim to none IMO.

[NotATether]

I took Joe Biden odds of winning at x1.45 before the race began, anticipating this would be a quick one-day race, and I kind of regret that I betted too early and didn’t wait for the odds to go up. Just the day after I placed my bet, his odds went up to x1.65, and there was even a time when I could’ve got it at x2.9 when Trump was leading in all of the swing states. I wouldn’t have been afraid to place a bet then. But hey at least I effectively won something, it’s just not as big as I wanted it to be.

[fullhdpixel]

I do not understand why there are places that still takes bets, like what are they even trying to achieve at this point? We know Biden won, there is no doubt about that, even if one state turns to trump which looks like not going to happen, that still means Biden wins, hell Biden takes Wisconsin and Michigan and he would be enough, there is really no need for sportsbooks to still take bets.

Maybe they are hoping that people would put a lot of money and they have low odds so they would pay back little but in case of some supreme court or anything type of deal, trump could win a court case for fraud vote and get the presidency, which we all know won't happen because there is no fraud votes at all, everything is legit, just because people voted by mail doesn't mean anyone rigged the system.

[proTECH77]

 Democratic candidate, Joe Biden is leading the incubent president Donald Trump slightly. Many supporter of Biden already celebrating in advance as the believe  their candidate will replace Trump in the white house.
I think there is still hope for Donald Trump to win the election if he can win the remaining state to gap Joe Biden. Many US citizens voted massively for Democratic candidate Joe Biden to win the election because they believe on him so much that he will be more better than Trump.

[bisdak40]

^^ got my bet settled already and it's a lose, does this mean Biden was proclaimed the new President in the USA already?

I like Trump to win the election as he is not interfering with my country's politics unlike Obama.   

[STT]

That bet settling means they have zero fear of having to pay out twice because it reversed back to favour the other candidate.   Statistically it becomes almost impossible at some point and I think we're there though I've not double checked recent counts thats normally how it goes.   My bet hasnt settled, I made a few yep neither the winning nor losing is showing just now but maybe tomorrow.

Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024

I cant remember anyone coming back from a full defeat, only nominee type failure do they come back.  So for example Romney wont be back in 4 years with somehow his vindication and dislike of Trump.    You'd get some big odds for that bet I'd hope, I'd like to see Harris bet for 2024 as thats quite possible as Biden has to be one of the oldest to serve though mostly I think he will tick over another 4 years ok.

Soon as my bets settles or possibly sooner, I'll close the thread.  Maybe we'll be betting on the Senate result in January as that could be quite a big deal for deciding the power shift.

[Timelord2067]

Joe Biden to become next US president, beating Donald Trump, according to multiple network electoral college projections

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-08/us-election-joe-biden-beats-president-donald-trump-networks-say/12859010

Joe Biden is set to become the next president of the United States, according to the decision desks of multiple US networks.
Key points:

    Joe Biden has beaten Donald Trump to become the 46th President of the United States
    Mr Trump has not conceded defeat, claiming the election was "far from over"
    Supporters of Mr Biden are celebrating around the country with car honks and fireworks

CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have called the state of Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for the Democratic candidate, meaning he has enough votes in the electoral college for victory over Donald Trump.

Mr Biden said in a statement: "With the campaign over, it's time to put the anger and the harsh rhetoric behind us and come together as a nation."

    "We are the United States of America … And there's nothing we can't do, if we do it together."

Mr Biden made no mention of his opponent, President Donald Trump, who has not conceded the race.

Further reading can be found here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-08/us-election-joe-biden-beats-president-donald-trump-networks-say/12859010


I would expect gambling sites will start paying out fairly quickly.

[Vishnu.Reang]

So it took almost 3-4 days to call the elections in favor of Biden. The impression that we got before the elections was that it would be a landslide for Biden and he may end up with close to 400 electoral votes. But Trump probably had a lot of "hidden supporters" and only the Trafalgar Group correctly predicted the support level for Trump. In the end, Trump lose by a whisker, but he helped to maintain the GOP majority in senate. In the House also, the GOP put up an improved performance.

[figmentofmyass]

So it took almost 3-4 days to call the elections in favor of Biden. The impression that we got before the elections was that it would be a landslide for Biden and he may end up with close to 400 electoral votes.

i wouldn't say that. the polls were far closer than 2016, and the betting markets favored biden only 2:1 heading into election day. fivethirtyeight only gave trump a 10% chance, but that wasn't because they expected a landslide (victory by overwhelming margin) but just because trump was too weak in a handful of important swing states.

^^ got my bet settled already and it's a lose, does this mean Biden was proclaimed the new President in the USA already?

I like Trump to win the election as he is not interfering with my country's politics unlike Obama.  

betfair is still giving 20:1 odds on trump.

he is pursuing recounts in every state he can legally. based on historical data alone, the chances of the election results being overturned based on a recount is somewhere in the realm of ~0.05%---probably even lower actually since the turnout was high. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/joe-biden-donald-trump-us-election-lawsuits-recount-supreme-court

Between 2000 and 2019, there were 5,778 statewide elections and 31 statewide recounts, according to FairVote, a voting reform group. Three of those recounts resulted in a reversal of the results. FairVote found that margin shifts are usually smaller in recounts with a high number of votes cast and presidential elections usually have the highest turnout.

at these odds, it's still pretty tempting to bet against trump.

[STT]

20 to 1 is just taking advantage of people who dont understand statistically its less then 1% probable Trump can reverse this not just in one state but the multiple required to turn the overall count.  Odds could be 2000 to 1 and I'd have to go weigh it up, 20 to 1 is a donation bet to that firm.   Betfair let you lay odds as I recall, doubt many will take this bet.  

I agree the legal challenge is most unlikely to make any difference, I'll go ahead and say Im sure some votes could be discounted but it wont be anything like is required to turn it around.   Theres conspiracy and theres spurious hopes and its just not feasible at this point.

The former president noted that the current one “earned the votes of more than 70 million Americans – an extraordinary political achievement.”

Quote from the article below, showing partly why its become so unlikely such a large amount of votes can be overturned or disputed, so far as I know there are not enough weak points in the argument for the president elect to proceed.


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2020/11/08/george-w-bush-congratulates-joe-biden-on-winning-white-house-sending-message-to-gop-about-elections-outcome/
Seems a relevant article to acceptance by both parties of the result for the good on the reoccuring race.   Considering I dont think the economy can especially improve until long standing debt is cleared, the next election could go either way again.

None of my bets closed, it better not stay open until Dec for silly reasons.

[nikola22]

I took Joe Biden odds of winning at x1.45 before the race began, anticipating this would be a quick one-day race, and I kind of regret that I betted too early and didn’t wait for the odds to go up. Just the day after I placed my bet, his odds went up to x1.65, and there was even a time when I could’ve got it at x2.9 when Trump was leading in all of the swing states. I wouldn’t have been afraid to place a bet then. But hey at least I effectively won something, it’s just not as big as I wanted it to be.

I made my bet on Joe Biden at x1.5 and there is no need to regret that you didn't catch the more profitable bet ) now there is only one need - to wait until the official results announced and bookmaker pays the bet.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

If Kamalla ran in 2024 I would bet on her to win, but I don't think that is a likely scenario. Joe will likely run for re-election. He might seem really old but last night we saw him jogging to the podium so I think he will still be in good enough shape to run again, although the presidency does take it's toll.

Trump might run again in 4 years but I don't know if there will still be that same energy among his supporters.

[Timelord2067]

If Kamalla ran in 2024 I would bet on her to win, but I don't think that is a likely scenario. Joe will likely run for re-election. He might seem really old but last night we saw him jogging to the podium so I think he will still be in good enough shape to run again, although the presidency does take it's toll.

Biden could always decide to stand down on his 80th birthday given he just became the oldest person to be elected to the position. (which would be in under three years time)

I wouldn't be surprised if a different Trump - Ivana Trump decides to take a shot for the White House.

Ivana Trump already has all the publicity photos she could ever hope for - and the Family name to draw on.

Kamala Harris Vs Ivana Trump in 2024 - that would be an interesting wager to have.

[mu_enrico]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

[Sithara007]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Arizona may flip even before the recount. Biden's lead has been reduced to around 16,000 with around 100,000 votes yet to be counted. Margin in Wisconsin is only 20,000 and there was at least one instance being reported where the Republican votes were tabulated on the Democrat column as a result of a software glitch. I would just say one thing. This election is not yet over, whatever Biden, Kamala and the Democrats have to say.

[hd49728]

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Yeah. Thin difference in many battleground states but it won't help Trump to win those states with vote recounts. Usually vote recounts don't bring big difference than original vote counts.

We nevertheless in the strange and weird Election (pandemic, huge vote by mails) and it is why Trump and his team hope that something can happen from vote recounts. If there are cheats behind the scene, Trump can make flips and win in some states. Again, it is his hope and we don't know what happened before the final vote counting results (this time) and vote recount (if happens).

Arizona can end with a win for Trump if the trend continues.

[Vishnu.Reang]

A few months back, the betting markets were giving better odds to Trump when compared to Biden, but the pandemic changed everything. Even now, the margins are so thin, and I believe that Trump would have won if the pandemic was not there. Anyway, I thought about making a bet in favor of Biden back then, but never had the courage to do so. Now I regret about my decision.

[tomahawk9]

So, i heard that some of the big bookies like Betway, Betfair, Bovada are holding out the payouts until the official results are out, this thing could take a few months with all the lawsuits and claims of vote fraud from Trump...But then you have sites like Bet365, Sportsbet.io and Unibet settling presidential election bets 🤔

What do u guys think, should bookies follow the concensus from the US mainstream media and payout? or do you think they should wait months for the inevitable results (Biden win) and then grade the bets? (i say inevitable cos i don't think Trump will win, just my opinion)

[Debonaire217]

A few months back, the betting markets were giving better odds to Trump when compared to Biden, but the pandemic changed everything. Even now, the margins are so thin, and I believe that Trump would have won if the pandemic was not there. Anyway, I thought about making a bet in favor of Biden back then, but never had the courage to do so. Now I regret about my decision.

No doubt, most of the cryptocurrency enthusiasts believed in Trumps influence to make cryptocurrency more widely adopted. It is just that, Trump also fought really well and did his best. If we think we lost allot, I couldn't think how much Trump has lost for the entire duration of the campaign, from social media campaign and more.

The lesson here is that, unexpected outcomes could still happen. We should be prepared no matter what the outcome is, and always risk any amount that we afford to lose. I'm really sure Trump will win but look at what happened. Still lucky that I didn't bet any amount in politics betting.

[adamvp]

I don't think Trump had anything in common with crypto - I know there was one pro-crypto guy considered to have postition in his administration, but he was eventually denied.

Do you know this: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION was closed or it is just lack of activity?

[Karartma1]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

[Vishnu.Reang]

No doubt, most of the cryptocurrency enthusiasts believed in Trumps influence to make cryptocurrency more widely adopted. It is just that, Trump also fought really well and did his best. If we think we lost allot, I couldn't think how much Trump has lost for the entire duration of the campaign, from social media campaign and more.

The lesson here is that, unexpected outcomes could still happen. We should be prepared no matter what the outcome is, and always risk any amount that we afford to lose. I'm really sure Trump will win but look at what happened. Still lucky that I didn't bet any amount in politics betting.

Anyway, it was the right decision. The election was too close, and who knows what might have happened if Trump would have managed to get a few tens of thousands of votes more. Because the margins were so narrow. Biden won by less than 10,000 votes in Georgia and 20,000 votes in Wisconsin. Other states such as Nevada and Pennsylvania were also really close. It might have gone either way.

[figmentofmyass]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

trump supporters are still giving us great odds to bet on biden because they don't understand just how unlikely a reversal via recount is. do the math:

based on historical data alone, the chances of the election results being overturned based on a recount is somewhere in the realm of ~0.05%---probably even lower actually since the turnout was high. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/joe-biden-donald-trump-us-election-lawsuits-recount-supreme-court

Between 2000 and 2019, there were 5,778 statewide elections and 31 statewide recounts, according to FairVote, a voting reform group. Three of those recounts resulted in a reversal of the results. FairVote found that margin shifts are usually smaller in recounts with a high number of votes cast and presidential elections usually have the highest turnout.

that 0.05% probability is the chances of overturning the results in one state election. trump needs to have the results overturned in multiple states! and we're talking about a high turnout election.

the supreme court route is a dead end too. they have zero interest in interfering with multiple state elections. in spite of the claims trump is making, they want to distance themselves as much as possible from politics. there is only one election case at the supreme court level---the pennsylvania case re ballots that came in after the election---and it's not gonna change the results even if republicans get those ballots thrown out. and if trump wants to pursue any other election challenges, he needs to bring them through the lower courts first, and then they need to progress to the supreme court and be heard there before the election results are certified next month. fat chance!

1.06 on biden is basically a sure bet.

[rdbase]

I don't think Trump had anything in common with crypto - I know there was one pro-crypto guy considered to have postition in his administration, but he was eventually denied.

Do you know this: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION was closed or it is just lack of activity?

Trump has defiantly said in a twitter post that he does not believe in cryptocurrency and has called it an outright scam or conjob if you own it.
I'll have to find the tweet. They ran it on a media show I was watching earlier.
Yet Biden has someone who is pro crypto/blockchain technology.
So you can be the judge of which one would be better for bitcoin in the oval office.

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

There are other markets, as one site has put it, "side bets" still available of when and if he will concede the presidency.
Also will he be ousted out of the white house before the jets win a game or the steelers losing one.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/when-will-trump-concede-odds-after-ny-jets-win-game
What you can bet on is endless in this election.

But one other sportsbook odds provider has made the final result in biden's favor and declared him president since November 7th 11pm.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election-odds
You can see the timeline of events since trump has been in the white til now.
There was even a bet available on impeachment available at the beginnning of the year.
Quite hilarious to read everything that has happened to this guy with being the one-in one-off president in office.
A film about this would be a proper way to make an exit out of the white house is all that is left to do for him.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/11/john-oliver-trump-presidency-house-of-cards-1234597592

[FinneysTrueVision]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Arizona may flip even before the recount. Biden's lead has been reduced to around 16,000 with around 100,000 votes yet to be counted. Margin in Wisconsin is only 20,000 and there was at least one instance being reported where the Republican votes were tabulated on the Democrat column as a result of a software glitch. I would just say one thing. This election is not yet over, whatever Biden, Kamala and the Democrats have to say.

There are only about 25k ballots that will for sure be counted and then about 40k provisionals which may or may not be counted. It doesn't look like there will be enough for Trump to flip it. He will lose the state by a few thousand votes.

We hear about software glitches every election year. It doesn't occur at a big enough scale to overturn an election.

In 2016 they did a recount in several midwestern states and it only changed the outcome by a few hundred points. They found that software glitches and other issues affect both sides and they end up canceling each other out for the most part.

[hd49728]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

Social media, newspapers, FDA are all in their battles with Trump. 5 days later the unofficial announcement that Biden won the election and became elected President, FDA and Pfizer and BioNTech announced very positive results from vaccine. Is it a coincidence? I don't think it is a coincidence. They planned to fight with Trump and tried to put him down.

Trump and his team will submit their lawsuits but I don't see lights for them to win at the end. Even if they will win only one battleground state after vote recount, it will be interesting enough.

Monday, November 09, 2020 - 06:45am
Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

[proTECH77]

The election results has been announced for the favour of Joe Biden who is the candidate of Democratic party that pulled 285 vote to defeat his incumbent Donald Trump who pulled 214 vote. Donald Trump still in white house waiting for the favour of court to declare him winner. It will hard Trump to win the case in court because US citizens really vote massively to Joe Biden to become their president.
Joe Biden will still will this court suit file by Trump claiming the election was not free and fair in November 3.

[bryant.coleman]

There are only about 25k ballots that will for sure be counted and then about 40k provisionals which may or may not be counted. It doesn't look like there will be enough for Trump to flip it. He will lose the state by a few thousand votes.

We hear about software glitches every election year. It doesn't occur at a big enough scale to overturn an election.

In 2016 they did a recount in several midwestern states and it only changed the outcome by a few hundred points. They found that software glitches and other issues affect both sides and they end up canceling each other out for the most part.

Trump is trailing by 14,746 votes and as per the latest data 77,000 ballots remain to be counted. The bad news for Trump is that a large section of these ballots are from Pima county, which is very blue leaning (I would assume most of the remaining ballots are from the city of Tucson). It is going to be very tough for Trump to win the state, but it is clear that the early call being made by Fox News was horribly wrong.

But here is the catch: provisional ballots are skewing heavily towards Trump. Among the 2400 or so provisional ballots accepted so far, Trump won 1,658 and Biden got 688. Data: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

[royalfestus]

The election results has been announced for the favour of Joe Biden who is the candidate of Democratic party that pulled 285 vote to defeat his incumbent Donald Trump who pulled 214 vote. Donald Trump still in white house waiting for the favour of court to declare him winner. It will hard Trump to win the case in court because US citizens really vote massively to Joe Biden to become their president.
Joe Biden will still will this court suit file by Trump claiming the election was not free and fair in November 3.

Have you seen his Trump's instagram handle? it is fueling a lot of news that can generate populace protest and reaction. people say no evidence but I dont know what to think with numerous posts, I dont even know when all the video are put together after the election. Conspiracy theories are difficult to avoid and believe, is this really happening in the US?

[Vishnu.Reang]

There is still a lot of confusion regarding the Arizona results and also there are rumors that Wisconsin results were incorrectly tabulated. It has been more than 6 days since the election day, and we still don't know who won the elections with 100% surety. Maybe once everything is settled, the authorities need to do a self-introspection and see why they became such a laughing stock during the counting phase.

[Karartma1]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

There are other markets, as one site has put it, "side bets" still available of when and if he will concede the presidency.
Also will he be ousted out of the white house before the jets win a game or the steelers losing one.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/when-will-trump-concede-odds-after-ny-jets-win-game
What you can bet on is endless in this election.

But one other sportsbook odds provider has made the final result in biden's favor and declared him president since November 7th 11pm.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election-odds
You can see the timeline of events since trump has been in the white til now.
There was even a bet available on impeachment available at the beginnning of the year.
Quite hilarious to read everything that has happened to this guy with being the one-in one-off president in office.
A film about this would be a proper way to make an exit out of the white house is all that is left to do for him.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/11/john-oliver-trump-presidency-house-of-cards-1234597592

This is funny! Like the old telenovelas, the Trump Biden election 2020 will entertain the public for some more time while some can still bet on very strange happenings! Still, my previous thought remains: it would be fantastic for the result to change in Trump's favour just for the sake of the craziness that could create.

[figmentofmyass]

the attorney general is launching an investigation into possible election fraud: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54882647

it looks like he is just pandering to trump. even fox news is shying away from covering the allegations coming from republicans because nobody can offer any evidence to support them.

nevertheless, trump's odds are up to 9% on betfair. where can i still bet against trump, with bitcoin?

[STT]

My bets haven't settled but I'll close this thread for now to stop it becoming political during these legal contests.   If we could still bet either way for a candidate at some site that'd be interesting but I've not yet seen that.

The polls as usual were really not close to showing the balance of the race and how close it could have been fairly easily with a win for either candidate, not a landslide despite how the final count appears in the college.

Video I saw seems to state as little as 45k votes switching would have done it:   Anyhow it was more interesting then many elections Ive seen, not sure we'll be as lucky again in that respect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4go51IeErQ

Trump has defiantly said in a twitter post that he does not believe in cryptocurrency and has called it an outright scam or conjob if you own it.

That was my impression also and possibly some bearish action was forthcoming start of this year but luckily that got derailed by events.