US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

[palle11]

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

I'm not thinking that the economy will be a good consideration for Trump to think that he will win by November. The Americans are not believing that the economy for them has done well in the time of trump. It is the non Americans that are feeling Trump economic policies has done well. We can wait and see the result after the election. The economy will also be judged with the pandemic and I think Trump did all in the fight on covid-19.

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[stompix]

~

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic.

Why apologize, it's a discussion forum, people here discuss things and voice their opinion, no need to apologize if you enter a discussion, no need to apologize even if you have a different point of view and you think I'm totally wrong.

That being said, the virus is one thing and the economy is another.
Just because we're experiencing this it doesn't mean the economy will still plunge, after all the slump was caused by the forced shutdown, not by the virus, and if everything opens up tomorrow the economy will start recovering faster, of course..at the cost at more human lives. But at one point it's like going to war, you have to face some consequences no matter what your decision will be.

And things are not that bad anymore:
The number of new businesses in America is booming

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

I'm waiting on the data for Q3, but I'm pretty sure the rebound will happen, it's impossible not to, the shutdown was way worse than what's happening now.

[exstasie]

I highly believe that if Biden getting elected would have a far superior impact on economy than people think it will. Think about it, Trump is a republican and they love big corporations and you know that very well, everyone knows that, hell Biden loves big corporations as well but at least he has some part of his party that hates big corporations that Biden has to keep happy, that is why even though he loves them, at rare times he would have to compromise to keep people happy.

It's not just about loving big corporations. In that sense, the biggest corporations generally support both parties, and they expect handouts from both parties.

But there are policy differences. Tax policy comes to mind in particular. Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

Biden has already said he would raise corporation tax back up to 28% on day one of this presidency, although with the Republicans still controlling the Senate they could block him.

As you say though, the tax cuts were a boon for corporate profitability. They were not a boon for the average worker as was claimed they were going to be. Does anyone remember this document: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Tax%20Reform%20and%20Wages.pdf? Predicted boosts of $4,000 to $9,000 per household, per annum? Never happened. Increase in business investment? Investment actually decreased in 2019, even before COVID hit. By and large, all these tax cuts did was hand more money to billionaire shareholders. The average worker saw zero benefit.

[exstasie]

Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

Biden has already said he would raise corporation tax back up to 28% on day one of this presidency, although with the Republicans still controlling the Senate they could block him.

As you say though, the tax cuts were a boon for corporate profitability. They were not a boon for the average worker as was claimed they were going to be. Does anyone remember this document: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Tax%20Reform%20and%20Wages.pdf? Predicted boosts of $4,000 to $9,000 per household, per annum? Never happened. Increase in business investment? Investment actually decreased in 2019, even before COVID hit. By and large, all these tax cuts did was hand more money to billionaire shareholders. The average worker saw zero benefit.

As expected. It was just an exercise in trickle-down Reaganomics, which we already know doesn't work. It just makes the rich (including company shareholders, who have greatly benefited in terms of company stock valuations) richer, without really increasing employment, consumer spending, tax revenues, etc. It's amazing that Republicans manage to convince poor conservatives to rally behind these supply-side schemes again and again. I guess that's the tragedy of a two-party system where both options are terrible.

As far as the Senate goes, agreed, but I've been keeping an eye on election data. The chances of Democrats taking control of the Senate this year has risen considerably over the past couple months. Fivethirtyeight is favoring them pretty heavily now.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-13/democrats-need-four-new-senate-seats-polling-looks-good
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

We'll see.....

[Febo]

If we will have 3 waves of covid, that means we will have tipple VVV recovery then    In part of Europe September economy almost reach last years Septembers numbers. October will be again catastrophic since lockdowns started and countries started closing borders and stopping economy.   So far we had March, now October, so last wave should start in May. Unless it will start earlier because of no hot summer weather. 

[FanEagle]

"Fear" for them to roll back? Dude it SHOULD be rolled back, if companies do not pay taxes, either country creates debt or they take it from the poor, thats not going to sustain for a long time, it is impossible to allow people to actually create some sort of loophole where richest of the population keeps paying less and less taxes, how could you manage a whole nation when that is the situation?

So, we should focus on getting those taxes back and even higher. These companies are making tens of billions of dollars worth of profit, there is no point not taking another billion, when you can get extra 100+ billion dollars, you are basically giving every family a whole months electricity bill for free, just to give an example, you can use it for something different obviously. So at the end of the day, rich should pay their fair share as well.

[barbara44]

3rd of November has a lot of senate elections as well, you are not voting just for the president, you are voting for senate seat as well and even though it is not all of them, there is enough of them to change the seat to democrat as well.

Looking at the current situation in the senate races there is really not that much change looking like it could happen, unfortunately senate is distributed equally to states and not population, so fuck with nowhere has similar amount of power and they are more in number of states so they can still outscore democrats to this day even though they are nowhere near close to amount of votes when you look at the total votes cast.

In any case we are looking for close number of senate between two parties and if president does an executive order, republicans will need 2/3 to decline something and they don't have that so Biden can do whatever he wants and republicans will not be able to stop him. Right now democrats can't do what they want because if it comes from house or senate republican majority and republican president can stop it, but when president is democrat that ends.

[Torque]

~

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic.

Why apologize, it's a discussion forum, people here discuss things and voice their opinion, no need to apologize if you enter a discussion, no need to apologize even if you have a different point of view and you think I'm totally wrong.

That being said, the virus is one thing and the economy is another.
Just because we're experiencing this it doesn't mean the economy will still plunge, after all the slump was caused by the forced shutdown, not by the virus, and if everything opens up tomorrow the economy will start recovering faster, of course..at the cost at more human lives. But at one point it's like going to war, you have to face some consequences no matter what your decision will be.

And things are not that bad anymore:
The number of new businesses in America is booming

Debt-fueled start up companies running purely in the red on cheap government-loaned, taxpayer debt is not "booming". It's crashing. It's a farce.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

I'm waiting on the data for Q3, but I'm pretty sure the rebound will happen, it's impossible not to, the shutdown was way worse than what's happening now.

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

[Harlot]

"Fear" for them to roll back? Dude it SHOULD be rolled back, if companies do not pay taxes, either country creates debt or they take it from the poor, thats not going to sustain for a long time, it is impossible to allow people to actually create some sort of loophole where richest of the population keeps paying less and less taxes, how could you manage a whole nation when that is the situation?

So, we should focus on getting those taxes back and even higher. These companies are making tens of billions of dollars worth of profit, there is no point not taking another billion, when you can get extra 100+ billion dollars, you are basically giving every family a whole months electricity bill for free, just to give an example, you can use it for something different obviously. So at the end of the day, rich should pay their fair share as well.

Creating a new tax in order to help the people is something really not that effective since it's just taking money away from people just to give is back to them especially if the new kind of tax is directly towards to the regular citizens and not the businesses. If it is towards to the businesses and the pandemic continues to hit then we can expect to have some kind of budget cuts happening from this company just to continue their survival. Taxes isn't really the solution here but how to quickly clean the country from the virus so everyone in the economy could jump start.

[stompix]

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

And you want to run to the hills knowing that people are getting their jobs back?
Yes, I'm applauding and I can't think why a normal person shouldn't be happy about it unless its sole purpose in life is to see other people's lives going to hell.
Yes, a mere 661k people, 661k people with families to feed are getting their jobs back, it could have been more, there needs to be more but the facts stand that the number of people who are employed is growing, the economy will also recover and all the doom and gloom lovers will have to retreat back to their caverns and start praying again for another calamity.

[Torque]

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

And you want to run to the hills knowing that people are getting their jobs back?
Yes, I'm applauding and I can't think why a normal person shouldn't be happy about it unless its sole purpose in life is to see other people's lives going to hell.
Yes, a mere 661k people, 661k people with families to feed are getting their jobs back, it could have been more, there needs to be more but the facts stand that the number of people who are employed is growing, the economy will also recover and all the doom and gloom lovers will have to retreat back to their caverns and start praying again for another calamity.

661K get their jobs that they lost back, only ~29 million more to go (to get their jobs back, not net new jobs created).

By that point it'll be another 7-8 years from now, just before another "black swan" crash. And another massive layoff in the tens of millions.

Yay recovery.  

[thecodebear]

yeah the economy ain't coming back anytime soon. It'll help to get a change of president to start next year, Trump's insanity and inconsistency is never good for long term economic outlet, not to mention his refusal to do anything to stop covid from laying waste to America. But still, even with an adult leading the nation once again, it'll be years of steady growth until we get back to a good economy. Millions of Americans will continue barely getting by on unemployment insurance and whatever part time stuff they can pick up for years to come as jobs slowly return. Plenty of retail places won't come back and those jobs are gone forever.


Inflation will be high from here on out, and the rich will start throwing money at bitcoin since stocks are already way inflated. Us Bitcoin rich will only get richer!

[Juggy777]

yeah the economy ain't coming back anytime soon. It'll help to get a change of president to start next year, Trump's insanity and inconsistency is never good for long term economic outlet, not to mention his refusal to do anything to stop covid from laying waste to America. But still, even with an adult leading the nation once again, it'll be years of steady growth until we get back to a good economy. Millions of Americans will continue barely getting by on unemployment insurance and whatever part time stuff they can pick up for years to come as jobs slowly return. Plenty of retail places won't come back and those jobs are gone forever.


Inflation will be high from here on out, and the rich will start throwing money at bitcoin since stocks are already way inflated. Us Bitcoin rich will only get richer!

@thecodebear yea even the analysts agree that now the US economy won’t rebound in 2020, and we will all have to wait till 2021 to see some upward movements in the economy. Furthermore currently US is more occupied with election results rather than saving their economy, and the only way to boost US economy in 2020 would be is by passing the stimulus package, but currently it looks like that package won’t be passed.

This has been a rotten year, and any chance of it ending on a high note has faded. The Covid-19 pandemic is intensifying, rancor over the US presidential election is mounting, and lawmakers haven't come to terms on another fiscal rescue package to shore up the fragile economy.

It is difficult to see how the economy will be able to gain any traction until next year when the pandemic and election are hopefully in the history books.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/perspectives/us-economy-pandemic-recovery/index.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-im-ready-to-sign-a-big-beautiful-stimulus-but-it-doesnt-look-like-many-americans-are-counting-on-it-2020-10-16

[stompix]

~

661K get their jobs that they lost back, only ~29 million more to go (to get their jobs back, not net new jobs created).

Can you please tell me from where did you get the 29 million that need to get their job back?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, following larger gains in the prior 4 months. In September, nonfarm employment was below its February level by 10.7 million, or 7.0 percent.

The total number of unemployed people was 23 million at its peak, now it's just 12,5 million and anyhow it was already 5 million before the pandemic.
So, seems like you're overexaggerating things by quite a margin.

[el kaka22]

^There are 63 million people who have applied to unemployment during the pandemic, this is a true stat that came from the government itself that Trump runs, so it is not a secret hidden fact, it is something republicans themselves literally said.

Secondly the meaning of "unemployed" is not always not having a job, it also means that their job is not paying them the salary as well, so let's say you work at a place and there is pandemic and the company refuses to pay you your salary because of it, that person does apply to unemployment as well which will result with you still having a job and not look like unemployed but you are also applying for unemployment since you are not taking home any salary. These are all things that got record breaking high during this period.

[Torque]

Here's the biggest proof yet that we are in a Depression.

Coca Cola Corp, one of the biggest worldwide global corporations that are almost recession/depression proof in terms of sales revenue, are slashing their product offerings in half.

Yes, by 50%.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coke-bids-adieu-200-drink-185853296.html

[stompix]

Yeah right, the number of beverages in Coca-Cola portfolio is a clear indicator, forget about numbers back by something, cherry-picking news, and throwing around numbers you refuse to back with sources should be definitive proof.

Back to real news, tomorrow is the day of the Q3 announcements and all the doom preaches are going to either run for the hills or again try to twist numbers:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Chicago Fed, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs all estimate it will be between 30% and 35%. Even if the real number is substantially lower, it will still be historic. Such an explosion of economic activity in the world’s largest economy is unprecedented in the history of GDP calculations, which goes back to the Great Depression.

Of course, we won't be back to pre-pandemic levels but, the pandemic is not yet over, and still, things look far better, another fall of the global order we have avoided

[Juggy777]

Back to real news, tomorrow is the day of the Q3 announcements and all the doom preaches are going to either run for the hills or again try to twist numbers:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Chicago Fed, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs all estimate it will be between 30% and 35%. Even if the real number is substantially lower, it will still be historic. Such an explosion of economic activity in the world’s largest economy is unprecedented in the history of GDP calculations, which goes back to the Great Depression.

Of course, we won't be back to pre-pandemic levels but, the pandemic is not yet over, and still, things look far better, another fall of the global order we have avoided

@stompix it seems that US economy has rebounded in the Q3 by 33.1%, and this is excellent news for US citizens because now they have some hope of reaching the pre pandemic levels in 2021.

Further It’s also pertinent to note that US economy is not out of the danger zone just yet, but a stable government plus a stimulus package can lead the way for their recovery in 2021.

Lastly as the experts have rightly said that the if the US election results are delayed, and there’s no stimulus package in place then it’s quiet possible that the US economy will once again tank, hence let’s hope that these scenarios can be avoided.

Source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/29/us-economy-turns-in-record-q3-growth-but-crisis-is-not-over

[stompix]

@stompix it seems that US economy has rebounded in the Q3 by 33.1%, and this is excellent news for US citizens because now they have some hope of reaching the pre pandemic levels in 2021.

This would be the time for me to brag with I've told you so...
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected

But it was quite obvious, you had a period of shutting down business voluntarily, people confined in their homes, and most important a thing I've realized by reading an article which was pretty obvious and I feel ashamed I have thought about it myself, lots of people who stayed at home earned just as much as they did previously but didn't spend the same amount and now that the measures have somewhat been relaxed have been free to spend more than usual.

Personal consumption increased 40.7%, while gross private domestic investment surged 83% amid a 59.3% increase on the residential side.

An at least 25% bounce was a pretty sure bet, I was thinking it would be somewhere below 30% but seems that even I was more pessimistic than it was necessary.

Further It’s also pertinent to note that US economy is not out of the danger zone just yet, but a stable government plus a stimulus package can lead the way for their recovery in 2021.

That is a big unknown, it depends on a lot of things, a cure, a second wave, a new president, a new president by how many votes, and even on what is happening in the rest of the world, what if the EU shuts down...Winter is coming!!!!