US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[suchmoon]

Let's try to have an election thread without the usual P&S garbage. So a few local rules:

BADecker, franky1, anyone else who can't stay on topic - I'm sure you can find many other threads to derail.

On topic: facts and discussion on early voting, turnout, exit polls, results, etc.

Borderline on topic: election issues as long as it's factual and about 2020 November federal elections.

Off topic: merits (or lack thereof) of candidates, political parties, political views, etc. Anything not directly related to elections. Personal attacks. Complaining about this thread (start a REEEE if you need to).

I will likely delete posts that are only partially off topic - don't take this personally, just edit out the off topic part and repost. There is definitely no lack of threads around here to discuss all that other stuff.


Nov 2 Update

Record-breaking early voting (from targetsmart):


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Last minute 538 average:


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Last minute RCP average:


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image


Original Oct 18

I'll start off with early voting numbers: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Unsurprisingly the numbers are way way up. It's almost as if there is some off topic event or circumstance (I'm just kidding, it's the friggin' pandemic) influencing the turnout.


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

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[Spendulus]

In the areas I travel through, I have seen some interesting things in yard signs.

These are a variety of highly democratic to highly republic areas over several hundred miles.

It's very common to see Trump signs in yards, with a fraction of those having a yard sign also for one or two local or state Repub candidates.

For the yards with Demo signs, they will be for local or state candidates primarily. Maybe one yard in four or five will have a Biden sign.

[nutildah]

Today's the 4th anniversary of the birth of this now-famous infographic -- #neverforget



If Hillary was running again, I'd say its all over for the dems:



However, Joe's not Hillary - nor is he Trump - and those two reasons combined might be enough to push him to victory... Unfortunately this assessment probably falls under discussion of merits of candidates. Hopefully I provided more information than OT discussion but I won't be offended if you delete this comment.

[Cnut237]

Whilst historical data on postal votes suggests there's no clear advantage to the Democrats, I do wonder whether it will be different this time around due to the differences between how Democrat voters and Republican voters view the pandemic. Generalising obviously, but the differences in mindset could play a crucial role, with Republicans placing more emphasis on personal freedoms, and so planning to turn up on polling day, whilst more cautious Dem voters mail-in ahead of time. The problem with leaving it to the last minute of course is the rising trajectory of the pandemic. You may plan to turn up on the day, but you could contract Covid, or be self-isolating, or you could get last minute jitters due to rapidly rising case numbers, and not vote at all. Not suggesting it will have a huge effect, but with tight margins in the swing states, it might not need to.

[suchmoon]

The problem with leaving it to the last minute of course is the rising trajectory of the pandemic. You may plan to turn up on the day, but you could contract Covid, or be self-isolating, or you could get last minute jitters due to rapidly rising case numbers, and not vote at all. Not suggesting it will have a huge effect, but with tight margins in the swing states, it might not need to.

Honestly I don't understand why everyone, except the few percent who allegedly haven't made up their minds, wouldn't vote by mail or at least vote early. There is no rational reason to wait until election day - which is a Tuesday so one may need to take a day off work to stand in line for 3 hours. Even if a candidate croaks between now and the election day people would likely still be voting for whatever the party ticket is and relying on the electors to sort it out.

[sirazimuth]

I got a mail in ballot sent to me so I voted for the 1st time in 30 years.
Call me lazy and politically apathetic, I concur.
Maybe if the retarded electoral college system would be shitcanned and simply go with popular vote winner instead , I'd have more incentive to vote,
because my state always goes with my candidate anyway.

[nutildah]

I got a mail in ballot sent to me so I voted for the 1st time in 30 years.
Call me lazy and politically apathetic, I concur.
Maybe if the retarded electoral college system would be shitcanned and simply go with popular vote winner instead , I'd have more incentive to vote,
because my state always goes with my candidate anyway.

Congratulations, or something.

Funny enough my state is the same way. It always votes the same way and has never had an impact or bearing on the outcome of a presidential election, ever! But I voted anyway, and yeah getting the ballot in the mail does make the process a lot easier. I was tempted to vote for Brock Pierce just to screw around, but nah:



Funny how they put Trump at the bottom -- they make Trump voters have to do some reading before casting their vote.

I thought about making 10 copies of my ballot and sending them all in different envelopes (not really), but the thing is there is only 1 special envelope that they will accept for your ballot, and you have to sign the outside of the envelope. Kind of strange but seemingly effective.

I honestly don't know how they would know to turn away voters at polling stations who have already submitted their ballot by mail. Hopefully somebody is in charge of keeping track of that shit.

[suchmoon]

I honestly don't know how they would know to turn away voters at polling stations who have already submitted their ballot by mail. Hopefully somebody is in charge of keeping track of that shit.

Depends on the state. In some states they do have a near-real-time list of who requested mail-in ballots and who submitted them. If the mail-in vote hasn't arrived by then and you manage to cast a vote in person, your mail-in vote should be discarded when mail-ins are counted.

[Spendulus]

...

Funny how they put Trump at the bottom -- they make Trump voters have to do some reading before casting their vote....

Design of such documents requires juggling the locations of candidates on the form, to overcome the biases.

But it would not surprise me if they skipped the science stuff.

[suchmoon]

Design of such documents requires juggling the locations of candidates on the form, to overcome the biases.

But it would not surprise me if they skipped the science stuff.

It appears to be very scientific - sorted alphabetically.

[squatz1]

I honestly don't know how they would know to turn away voters at polling stations who have already submitted their ballot by mail. Hopefully somebody is in charge of keeping track of that shit.

Depends on the state. In some states they do have a near-real-time list of who requested mail-in ballots and who submitted them. If the mail-in vote hasn't arrived by then and you manage to cast a vote in person, your mail-in vote should be discarded when mail-ins are counted.

A large amount of states have this system rolled out to the public to, which is an amazing thing for people to be able to verify if their vote was counted and such. I think most states use the term ballot tracking, which is pretty much just allowing you to track your ballot in the states system to ensure that it was counted for voting.

Here's a list - https://www.pcmag.com/how-to/how-to-track-your-absentee-ballot-by-state

Problem is that I couldn't find a chart that I'd used before for this very purpose. I know a few states on here, like New York, allow absentee ballots to be tracked BUT ONLY for overseas voters.

Dumb to not have this system fully functioning everywhere.

Design of such documents requires juggling the locations of candidates on the form, to overcome the biases.

But it would not surprise me if they skipped the science stuff.

It appears to be very scientific - sorted alphabetically.

Would probably make more sense to put the two top parties on top though, right?

Then again your decision on who to vote for shouldn't change based on where they are on the ballot.

[suchmoon]

Would probably make more sense to put the two top parties on top though, right?

What's a top party though? Technically you can't know until the votes are counted and ballot design shouldn't rely on polls.

Then again your decision on who to vote for shouldn't change based on where they are on the ballot.

Precisely.

[eddie13]

Not unusual at all to have the incumbent president at the bottom of the list.. I’m sure it happens all the time..

Are all the other races on that ballot ordered in the same way?

I got a mail in ballot sent to me so I voted for the 1st time in 30 years.
Call me lazy and politically apathetic, I concur.
Maybe if the retarded electoral college system would be shitcanned and simply go with popular vote winner instead , I'd have more incentive to vote,
because my state always goes with my candidate anyway.

That whole pesky “United States” part with its electoral college..
Whoever agreed to that in the first place must be morons right?

[Cnut237]

It appears to be very scientific - sorted alphabetically.

So if he simply changed his name to _Trump, he'd be at the top of the list? That's got to confer at least a small advantage. Even competing as 'Donald, The' would bump him up a few places.
Unless when you change your name, you're only allowed to use alphabetic characters - in which case what about the squiggle formerly known as Pence Prince?

[suchmoon]

It appears to be very scientific - sorted alphabetically.

So if he simply changed his name to _Trump, he'd be at the top of the list? That's got to confer at least a small advantage. Even competing as 'Donald, The' would bump him up a few places.
Unless when you change your name, you're only allowed to use alphabetic characters - in which case what about the squiggle formerly known as Pence Prince?

Well, if you look at 20 years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House, the alphabetical order conspiracy might be onto something

[Spendulus]

.....

Then again your decision on who to vote for shouldn't change based on where they are on the ballot.

I can 100% guarantee you that position in a list is an important factor in which item people pick from that list. This is basic survey design.

FYI I voted this morning and Trump/Pence was at the top of the list...

[suchmoon]

FYI I voted this morning and Trump/Pence was at the top of the list...

That's interesting. Where was Biden? Any other candidates?

[Spendulus]

FYI I voted this morning and Trump/Pence was at the top of the list...

That's interesting. Where was Biden? Any other candidates?

I think Biden was second, followed by LIB then GRN. Didn't even know we had a Green Party candidate, seems we do.

[suchmoon]

I think Biden was second, followed by LIB then GRN. Didn't even know we had a Green Party candidate, seems we do.

So maybe they did order by some arbitrary popularity metric but that sounds really sketchy. Unless all ballots in your state are completely random and yours just happened to be that way.

[Spendulus]

I think Biden was second, followed by LIB then GRN. Didn't even know we had a Green Party candidate, seems we do.

So maybe they did order by some arbitrary popularity metric but that sounds really sketchy. Unless all ballots in your state are completely random and yours just happened to be that way.

The ballots were entered by touchscreen, then printed out on thermal paper both in English and scan codes. Then you actually "vote" by inserting this page into a scanner that's on top of a collection can. This system is capable of randomizing and presenting data impartially, and then accurately recording votes.

The collection bin system does allow double checking vote tallies and audit.

I'll grudgingly say I like the system, seems to have the advantages of both old style paper and modern electronic. With the paper stored, as long as the thermal image survives, there is a paper trail.

Could humans abuse it? Could they be caught every time? I think so.