US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[nutildah]

Out the dozen or so tracked by RealClearPolitics, there was one poller that got the election right in 2016: USC Dornsife (back then it was listed as "USC/LA Times"). They consistently showed Trump up by a few points in places where it mattered throughout the 2016 election while everybody else showed Hillary with relatively wide leads. I thought they were crazy, and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

This year, as of right now they have Biden up overall by 12.3%, which is higher than all the other pollers listed on RCP.

Rasmussen currently has the only poll with Trump ahead, by 1% (with 2% of likely voters still undecided).

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[KonstantinosM]

I look at all the material that has Biden winning but then I look outside at all the Trump people. I haven't seen people gather for Biden anywhere here. I believe Florida at least is going to Trump.

There are some houses with Biden/Harris stuff on them though. It's not as one sided as 2016.

The real question is who do you think is more qualified to figure out the opinion of ~150 million people?  Polling companies with a proven track record over thousands of elections  - some spanning more than 5 decades, or you when you look outside?

I mentioned that I look at the polling material. I know that it's 87/100 a Biden win. And for the record I'm an independent that was leaning heavily towards Bernie. I don't have a horse in this race.

I live in the densest county in Florida. I see pro-trump gatherings all the time. I don't see any Biden people. My place in the state of Florida is kind of important. It would be a fair assessment that any place north of where I am goes to trump. If you add that to my area also going to Trump I'm really confident that he will win Florida.

So if you only trust that the polls are accurate than Trump should lose florida 2/3 times. Are you willing to bet BTC0.02 that Biden wins florida? Because I am willing to bet that it goes to Trump. I certainly can't call the whole election, it's more than likely that Biden wins, but if you're in that camp you can't get complacent. Remember in 2016 Hillary was supposed to win (and even though she won the popular vote), she lost.

I never claimed I'm more qualified than the experts, but if it's raining outside and the weatherman says it's not and I'm wearing clothes made out of newspaper, I'm not stepping out and getting arrested for public nudity. 

[suchmoon]

I live in the densest county in Florida. I see pro-trump gatherings all the time. I don't see any Biden people. My place in the state of Florida is kind of important. It would be a fair assessment that any place north of where I am goes to trump. If you add that to my area also going to Trump I'm really confident that he will win Florida.

What do you mean by "gatherings"? And in what way does it affect the election? I don't know how it works in Florida but I'm in one of the battleground-ish states and there isn't any great enthusiasm for crowds, mainly due to the pandemic, but the turnout in early voting is still massive on both sides.

So if you only trust that the polls are accurate than Trump should lose florida 2/3 times. Are you willing to bet BTC0.02 that Biden wins florida? Because I am willing to bet that it goes to Trump. I certainly can't call the whole election, it's more than likely that Biden wins, but if you're in that camp you can't get complacent. Remember in 2016 Hillary was supposed to win (and even though she won the popular vote), she lost.

LOL everyone's so feisty with the bets... If Twitchy accepts could you please take it to a new thread - better for you two to hash it out and less distraction here.

[KonstantinosM]

What do you mean by "gatherings"? And in what way does it affect the election? I don't know how it works in Florida but I'm in one of the battleground-ish states and there isn't any great enthusiasm for crowds, mainly due to the pandemic, but the turnout in early voting is still massive on both sides.

I work for a living so I commute. I drive past people that gather by the side of the highway with Trump signs. One such gathering has easily upwards of 100 people. And it happens all the time. These people have votes and they're going to use them.

It's also completely possible that the Biden crowds are not dumb enough to congregate during a pandemic, but there is still a big difference in the amount of Trump signs versus Biden signs.

Also I've talked to people and there really are a lot of passionate Trump people even right now. People who believe all that right wing propaganda about Antifa and BLM and that if Biden becomes president it's over for America and all that nonsense.

LOL everyone's so feisty with the bets... If Twitchy accepts could you please take it to a new thread - better for you two to hash it out and less distraction here.

Yep, if Twitchy accepts we PM, get our own thread, I wouldn't dream of hijacking yours.  I'm just putting some BTC on the line to show I'm serious.

[bryant.coleman]

Those who are betting in favor of Biden please note these points:

1. Postal voting numbers are as expected. Early voting has helped to reduce the Dem-Rep gap, as per the data from Hawkfish. Check this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

2. A number of very recent polls are showing Trump ahead in Florida and North Carolina. Some of them are showing that he's ahead in Arizona and Pennsylvania as well.

3. Hardly anyone is noticing this point. Libertarian candidate is not getting as much support as in 2016. This will bolster the chances of GOP in states such as Arizona and Michigan. Gary Johnson received 3.28% of the vote in 2016, while the Green Party candidate received only 1.07%. This time the trend indicate that both the parties will poll somewhere around 1% to 1.5% each. Jill Stein didn't received more than 1.5% of the vote in any of the battleground states, but Gary Johnson got 5.18% in Colorado, 4.15% in New Hampshire, 4.13% in Arizona, 3.84% in Minnesota, 3.78% in Iowa, 3.59% in Michigan and 3.58% in Wisconsin. Evan McMullin also chewed up some GOP votes in 2016.

4. After a fierce spat between Justice Elena Kagan and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the SCOTUS ruled that the state of Wisconsin doesn't need to count the postal ballots which are received after the election day on Nov 3rd. This is perhaps the first legal spat related to the outcome of the POTUS elections that landed in the supreme court. We'll see more in the coming weeks. The indications are clear.

Note: I don't want to pick sides. Just pointed out some of the observations.

[Spendulus]

....I see pro-trump gatherings all the time. I don't see any Biden people. ....

The Trump voters are reacting to a hostile and suppressive media with massive, spontaneous demonstrations. These cannot be suppressed from Facebook, Twitter and the mainstream media. If they suppress one, there's six more popping up.

I'm seeing it around here also. Quite impressive.

I don't see any Biden people. ....

The part of that statement that should be of concern is the "any." And I agree, I've seen  zero for Biden.

[vapourminer]

I find it quite amazing that 40% of 2016 turnout have already voted... 55 million people by some estimates. Democrats up by about 8-10% (by party registration numbers where available) but as TwitchySeal noted about Florida, Republicans will likely keep catching up as the election day draws closer. Makes me wonder what the total turnout is going to be.

i voted the other day around 10am on a weekday. about a dozen supporter for each candidate, each group on either side at the entrance. they didnt interact with the others or voters, just waved sighs at cars.

no line. one voter leaving and one voter in a booth, which were well spread out. registration person took my info, informed me the mail in ballet i had requested (as a backup) wouldn't count if it turned up. i assured her it would be shredded as soon as i saw my vote sealed. btw they used a water bottle thing to seal the envelopes so no masks need to be removed or any somewhat nasty sponges at the stations were needed.

i went in with an n95 and face shield with a P100 respirator as a backup, which i didnt use. i had all that cause there was no friggin way my vote wasnt gonna get counted by some "mail fraud" sleight of hand crap. i was gonna vote in person unless i was covid positive or physically in the hospital or something.

edit: 2016 there were tons of trump signs, like everywhere, along with hillary ones too of course. this year? very few of either candidate.

[squatz1]

Let's try to get back on track. Democrats said this, Republicans said that - doesn't matter much anymore with about a week to go.

I find it quite amazing that 40% of 2016 turnout have already voted... 55 million people by some estimates. Democrats up by about 8-10% (by party registration numbers where available) but as TwitchySeal noted about Florida, Republicans will likely keep catching up as the election day draws closer. Makes me wonder what the total turnout is going to be.

After what happened last time, I don't have faith in the pollsters at all. To come up with my results what I did was look at an average of polls from 2016 at this time of year and find the difference between what they projected vs. what actually happened (what I referred to as "M.O.E." in the table below). It's basically working on an assumption that they will be equally as wrong this time around. If they are even just slightly more correct, Biden has a good shot of winning Florida; WI and AZ not so much.

I don't believe the margin of error is going to be exactly the same... if for no other reason than demographic and other changes in the 4 years. Some polling issues specific to Trump (underweighing non-college-educated voters for example) have probably been addressed so I would expect smaller and less-one-sided errors this time around.

This is really my line of thought. I really can't see pollsters making the same mistake twice when it comes to Trump and his voters.

I'd think that they may be polling a little bit in his favor to ensure that they don't embarrass themselves again. Literally all bullshit theory that I'm just pulling out of my ass, though that's just what I expect to happen this time around.

I've voted though. I trust the mail system and think that it's fine to just send an absentee ballot in. At least in my state there aren't any concerns relating to voting by mail.

[suchmoon]

In Texas of all places more people have already voted than the total turnout in 2016:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/30/929578710/more-than-9-million-texans-cast-ballots-early-topping-states-total-turnout-in-20

Overall 80+ million people have voted, or 60%+ of 2016 turnout.

[TwitchySeal]

LOL everyone's so feisty with the bets... If Twitchy accepts could you please take it to a new thread - better for you two to hash it out and less distraction here.

Yep, if Twitchy accepts we PM, get our own thread, I wouldn't dream of hijacking yours.  I'm just putting some BTC on the line to show I'm serious.

I'll pass, thanks though.  Already have enough on the line to make things plenty exciting for me.

I feel like Florida is closer to a coin flip than any other state, btw, not anywhere near a Biden 2:1 favorite.

The Trump voters are reacting to a hostile and suppressive media with massive, spontaneous demonstrations.

They're reacting to a conservative Media (and Trump) narrative that the media is the enemy of the people and only Trump can save them.

In other words:

They're reacting to the Federal Government narrative that the media is the enemy of the people and only The Federal Government can save them.


I would give you a ton of examples of Trump claiming something was fake news with made up 'phony anonymous sources' that were later proven to be true with Trump fully aware they were true while calling them fake - but we both know that no amount of evidence would ever change your mind if it involved Trump looking really bad.


538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time.  The gap is so large that Biden would still win if he was on the bad end of all the battle ground margins of error. The only way they see Trump winning is if the the polls are completely missing something - which they put at 10%.

[Spendulus]

....
538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time. ....

....

Indeed, the enthusiasm of the Biden Harris crowd shows.

Harris's appearance in Fort Worth gathered TRILLIONS of human cells. They were organized neatly into a few dozen actual humans.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/dozens-attend-kamala-harris-campaign-event-fort-worth/

[TwitchySeal]

....
538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time. ....

....

Indeed, the enthusiasm of the Biden Harris crowd shows.

Harris's appearance in Fort Worth gathered TRILLIONS of human cells. They were organized neatly into a few dozen actual humans.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/dozens-attend-kamala-harris-campaign-event-fort-worth/

Hasn't Texas been solid red for decades? Why would she be campaigning there a few days before the election?


Let me check...





Oh damn.  33%.  That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

[squatz1]

In Texas of all places more people have already voted than the total turnout in 2016:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/30/929578710/more-than-9-million-texans-cast-ballots-early-topping-states-total-turnout-in-20

Overall 80+ million people have voted, or 60%+ of 2016 turnout.

This is pretty crazy news. Still have a TON of ballots that are probably still in the pipeline and others that'll prefer to vote in person. So this year is going to most likely by the year of record breaking voter turnout as it's pretty easy to vote this year.

....
538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time. ....

....

Indeed, the enthusiasm of the Biden Harris crowd shows.

Harris's appearance in Fort Worth gathered TRILLIONS of human cells. They were organized neatly into a few dozen actual humans.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/dozens-attend-kamala-harris-campaign-event-fort-worth/

Hasn't Texas been solid red for decades? Why would she be campaigning there a few days before the election?


Let me check...





Oh damn.  33%.  That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

[NotATether]

Today's the 4th anniversary of the birth of this now-famous infographic -- #neverforget
~snip

Trump's in a worse position election-wise than he was in 2016, lots of people are angry with his policies and would vote for Biden to get Trump out of office.

Whatever Hillary did that pissed off voters is nowhere near the amount of outrage that Trump caused. In fact with fresh new BlackLivesMatter protests cropping up ever couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if most blacks vote for Biden. But more demographics would have to follow suit for a Biden election to be successful.

[Spendulus]

....
Oh damn.  33%.  That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

[TwitchySeal]

....
Oh damn.  33%.  That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

And if Trump loses, you can believe every future will be accurate for the rest of your life.

Just as rational.

[suchmoon]

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

You attributed the quote to me incorrectly.

I'm sure you know that "people in the business of making polls and forecasts" operate with probabilities, and those probabilities are almost never 0% or 100%. If Trump had as dice roll chance of getting elected it doesn't mean all dice should be thrown away if he rolls a double six.

[eddie13]

Today's the 4th anniversary of the birth of this now-famous infographic -- #neverforget
~snip

Trump's in a worse position election-wise than he was in 2016, lots of people are angry with his policies and would vote for Biden to get Trump out of office.

Whatever Hillary did that pissed off voters is nowhere near the amount of outrage that Trump caused. In fact with fresh new BlackLivesMatter protests cropping up ever couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if most blacks vote for Biden. But more demographics would have to follow suit for a Biden election to be successful.

BLM riots making people vote Biden? Lol no.. They will make people vote Trump (and be quiet about it)..

In 2016 lots of conservatives were unsure of his policies, now they know he will side with conservatism 90% mostly and will make good conservative appointments..

[TwitchySeal]

In 2016 lots of conservatives were unsure of his policies, now they know he will side with conservatism 90% mostly and will make good conservative appointments..

Biden has, by far, more bipartisan support than any other presidential candidate in modern history.

BLM riots making people vote Biden? Lol no.. They will make people vote Trump (and be quiet about it)..

From right around the peak of the protests:

[suchmoon]

Presidential election is boring. How about the Senate:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

If you believe the polls - and presumably people would be less inclined to lie in Senate polls so why not - Democrats need to flip one of the toss-up spots to gain control.


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image