US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[bryant.coleman]

^^^ Out of the 5 races that are labelled as toss up, Montana and Iowa may go for GOP. The two from Georgia may also end up with the GOP. NC looks like it may flip to the Democrats. So it may get 50-50. If we add Murkowski in the Democrat column, then Democrats will be in control of the senate with a margin of 51-49. So unless a miracle occurs, the Dems will control the senate.

BTW.. a miracle may occur. From what I have heard, in Michigan John James is rapidly closing the gap with Gary Peters. And in AZ, Martha McSally is only 3-4 points behind Mark Kelly. So in case the GOP wins one aming AZ/MI/NC, then they may control the senate. 

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[suchmoon]

^^^ Out of the 5 races that are labelled as toss up, Montana and Iowa may go for GOP. The two from Georgia may also end up with the GOP. NC looks like it may flip to the Democrats. So it may get 50-50. If we add Murkowski in the Democrat column, then Democrats will be in control of the senate with a margin of 51-49. So unless a miracle occurs, the Dems will control the senate.

BTW.. a miracle may occur. From what I have heard, in Michigan John James is rapidly closing the gap with Gary Peters. And in AZ, Martha McSally is only 3-4 points behind Mark Kelly. So in case the GOP wins one aming AZ/MI/NC, then they may control the senate. 

If Biden wins, Democrats can control the Senate without Murkowski's help in a 50:50 split - VP is the tie breaker.

[nutildah]

Interestingly, Biden is now up well over Clinton polling numbers in Pennsylvania. I seriously don't see the pollsters risking underestimating Trump voter turnout there this time around, but the difference lies within the margin of error for all polls, so..

This is one last map; a worst-case scenario for Biden where cedes Pennsylvania and Florida and everything comes down to Arizona:



If Arizona flips to Biden, there's a possibility that North Carolina and Georgia could flip to Biden as well. Wisconsin is also a wildcard, certainly not a "gimmie" for the dems.

[suchmoon]

Apparently there is an attempt to throw out drive-thru ballots in Houston:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/31/harris-county-drive-thru-votes/

To their credit, Texas Supreme Court rejected the case but now the plaintiffs are fishing in a federal court. This is quite bizarre even by 2020 standards. There is nothing wrong with the ballots and the county got the permission from the secretary of state to do the drive thru. Not to mention that Texas is (was?) solid red despite Houston, Austin, etc.

[bryant.coleman]

If Arizona flips to Biden, there's a possibility that North Carolina and Georgia could flip to Biden as well. Wisconsin is also a wildcard, certainly not a "gimmie" for the dems.

Arizona is troublesome for the GOP. If you look at the past elections, you can see that the opinion polls have always underestimated the Democrat support in Hispanic-heavy states such as Nevada, Arizona, Texas.etc. On top of that, Arizona is one of the states where there is a huge difference in the early voting numbers. Let's compare Arizona with Nevada (which seems to be going in the other direction).

AZ in 2016, early voting (by voter registration):

Dem - 554,910 (33.6%)
GOP - 659,600 (40.0%)
Trump margin of victory: 3.50%

AZ in 2020, early voting:

Dem - 879,178 (38.2%)
GOP - 836,123 (36.3%).

As you can see, the proportion of Dem voters are up by around 4.5%, while that of GOP is down by -3.7%. That is a net change of 8.2%, which is more than double that of the 2016 margin. No other state is showing this much difference in early voting.

Now, Nevada, for comparison.
NV in 2016, early voting:

Dem - 324,293 (42.1%)
GOP - 278,668 (36.2%)
Trump margin in 2016: -2.42%

NV in 2020, early voting:

Dem - 405,994 (39.6%)
GOP - 373,130 (36.4%)

All the figures for 2020 are as of Oct 31. Early voting turnout is 86.5% of the 2016 actual turnout in AZ, and 91.2% in NV. Arizona is looking very doubtful for the Republicans, unless there is a huge in-person turnout on 3rd Nov.

2020 numbers sourced from: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
2016 numbers from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit?usp=sharing

[suchmoon]

We're almost done. The election starts in a few hours (or does it... do any voting places actually open at mignight? I have no clue... probably doesn't matter with early voting anyway) and it will be over by this time tomorrow (or will it... recounts, tweetstorms, lawsuits are very likely).

I have updated the OP with latest 538 and RCP averges. They have Biden up by 8.0% and 6.7% respectively.

[Gyfts]

We're almost done. The election starts in a few hours (or does it... do any voting places actually open at mignight? I have no clue... probably doesn't matter with early voting anyway) and it will be over by this time tomorrow (or will it... recounts, tweetstorms, lawsuits are very likely).

I have updated the OP with latest 538 and RCP averges. They have Biden up by 8.0% and 6.7% respectively.

Polling places open up at 7 AM. Some states like Pennsylvania immediately start counting mail in ballots at 7 AM sharp.

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

[suchmoon]

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

Speaking of Florida, early voting turnout (not including Monday's mail-ins I guess) has Democrats with a ~100k vote advantage... which is probably nothing, considering that despite the record-breaking early voting there are likely still a few million people coming to vote tomorrow.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246891077.html

[bryant.coleman]

First will be eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm EST. Polls will close in Eastern Florida at 7pm EST. A large chunk of results will be available immediately after the closing of polls, because states such as Florida will start counting the postal ballots on election day morning. They will be releasing the results as soon as the polls close. But there are states such as Georgia, which will start tabulating the postal ballots only after the polls close.

In states such as Florida, where the early ballots are counted first, there may be a "Blue mirage" during the initial few hours. But as election day votes start to get counted, a "red shift" will occur. And in the end, late postal ballots will be counted and this will again shift the momentum to Blue. The exact opposite will happen in states such as Pennsylvania, where election day votes will be counted first.

For more details, check this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Please refer this map, to know the poll closing times (all in EST).

[Spendulus]

What I have not seen discussed is the fact that in 2016 Trump won, but many stayed home or did not vote for him. Really a lot of Republicans and Independents.

This time most of those undecided voters are pro Trump. Not all but most. Plus, some Democrats who are appalled at their choices, or who have reasons. Like blacks.

That's a great many votes.

The media and the pollsters would have us believe that there are that many MORE democrats who have came out of the woodwork in their tremendous enthusiasm for the rock star Joe Biden.

I don't buy it. There was enthusiasm for Hillary, no question about that. This time around the Democratic enthusiam is as near to zero as possible.

Not only do a percentage of the younger crowd actually like Trump and will or have voted for him, but others, faced with a choice of toking on some weed or going out for Biden, are going to stay at home.

[squatz1]

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

Speaking of Florida, early voting turnout (not including Monday's mail-ins I guess) has Democrats with a ~100k vote advantage... which is probably nothing, considering that despite the record-breaking early voting there are likely still a few million people coming to vote tomorrow.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246891077.html

Yeah this is something that more people need to know. Any record breaking absentee / early voting advantages will most likely be soaked up by in person voting. Voter turnout will end up being higher this year, though.

We MAY know the winner today. Even though they're going to start counting the absentee ballots today, they may not have the resources to get it out ASAP. I'm guessing that if we end up knowing today it's going to be LATER in the night - lke 12-4 AM.

Who the fuck knows what litigation is going to end up doing to certain votes though. Litigation could flip this all up, though I think we all know that isn't going to be popular - just like Bush v Gore wasn't popular.

[suchmoon]

Trump is leading so far:


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

[KonstantinosM]

Biden is ahead by 3% with over 50% reported in FL.

[TwitchySeal]

NYTimes has Trump a clear favorite to win FL right now.

What I have not seen discussed is the fact that in 2016 Trump won, but many stayed home or did not vote for him. Really a lot of Republicans and Independents.

This time most of those undecided voters are pro Trump. Not all but most. Plus, some Democrats who are appalled at their choices, or who have reasons. Like blacks.

That's a great many votes.

I don't think there's evidence that any of this is accurate, which would explain why it's not being discussed.

[suchmoon]

Biden is ahead by 3% with over 50% reported in FL.

And now Trump is up by 2% and NYT says Trump's probability to win FL is 90%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida-president.html

Edit: TwitchySeal beat me to it LOL

Edit2: 66% counted, Biden again up by ~1.3%

Edit3: FL still very very close...


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

[bryant.coleman]

What is the situation in North Carolina? As far as I can see, very few votes have been counted there till now, but NYT is saying that Biden is having a two-third chance of winning NC. It looks very surprising, as I thought that FL was tighter than NC for Trump. BTW, huge shift in Miami-Dade county. Hillary won this county by 300,000 or so in 2016. Biden is having a lead of only around 85,000 now.

[suchmoon]

What is the situation in North Carolina? As far as I can see, very few votes have been counted there till now, but NYT is saying that Biden is having a two-third chance of winning NC.

Not sure what they base it on... exit polls and/or turnout by county?

Meanwhile FL seems to be done. Trump is leading by nearly 200k votes and the remaining uncounted votes are mainly in pro-Trump counties.

[eddie13]

Trump still has a good shot..
Michigan is red!!

On the edge of my seat..

[bryant.coleman]

OK.. now they (NYT) changed North Carolina to +0.9 for Trump.

They are claiming that 62% of the votes are reported. But I checked Fox News, and they are reporting only 51%. Anyway, now it is more or less clear that sub-belt is getting swept by Trump. The race will shift to the rust-belt now.

Michigan numbers are confusing, so I'll leave that. With more than half of the votes counted, Ohio is showing a 12.3% lead for Biden. This should be troublesome for Trump. He need to get a lead of 13% from the remaining 49%.

Edit: Biden's lead down to 11.1% in Ohio as they start counting in-person votes.

[suchmoon]

Trump still has a good shot..
Michigan is red!!

On the edge of my seat..

Michigan has counted very few votes but overall Trump seems to have a better chance than predicted, again