US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[TwitchySeal]

When I went to bed Biden was behind in WI and MI, and now he's apparently going to win them both

Funny what happens during the dark of night, isn't it?

Votes get counted? In some states they will be counted all the way until Friday.

And then the guy complaining about them being counted will demand they be counted again.

I think og was referring to Trump going into authoritarian mode at 3 am though.

[suchmoon]

(Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump)

If this thread wasn't moderated by a nazi I'd put some money on GA going to Biden.

At the end of the day (well, one of those days within the next week or so) this election will probably turn out to be a good result for Democrats, considering that they had a barely alive candidate and still managed to flip a few states. Certainly not the type of a "blue wave" some hoped for but defeating an incumbent is always tough.

[squatz1]

(Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump)

If this thread wasn't moderated by a nazi I'd put some money on GA going to Biden.

At the end of the day (well, one of those days within the next week or so) this election will probably turn out to be a good result for Democrats, considering that they had a barely alive candidate and still managed to flip a few states. Certainly not the type of a "blue wave" some hoped for but defeating an incumbent is always tough.

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that, bunch of ETH's ones as well.

PolyMarket (ETH) - https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-win-georgia-in-the-2020-presidential-election

BTC is going to be a bunch of gambling websites.

But back to the point - I do think that Trump will end up with Georgia. I know that the absentee ballots are being counted, which is cutting Trumps margin to razor thing territory. Expecting Trump to win by something like 2000-5000 votes at the end of all of this. Nothing to be extremely happy about, as Georgia voted for Trump by a 5% margin in 2016. Though Biden is very strong among the Black voters in Georgia.

As I end most posts ----- WE'LL SEE.

[OgNasty]

Looking like Biden might pull it off by a hair now. One thing is certain, the media was WAY off with their predictions of a landslide victory.

[TwitchySeal]

Looking like Biden might pull it off by a hair now. One thing is certain, the media was WAY off with their predictions of a landslide victory.

Most of the Liberal media seemed to follow 538s lead (ABC News) that the two most likely scenarios were Biden wins FL and the election is called early (landslide), or it would be a nail biter,  and Trump would spread disinformation/declare victory before there was a clear winner.
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

It's conservative media pushing anti liberal media stories that don't have much truth to them.  Pretty smart from a marketing perspective.  

[suchmoon]

Wall Street seems to be happy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/election-stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html



Bitcoin seems to be happy:

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

[Naida_BR]

If Biden is elected we are going to see a boom in prices both in the stock markets but also in the crypto markets.
Trump wasn't so popular in the Wall Street due to his radical opinions and the way that he wanted to cut the bonds from other countries. Biden is going to give a hope to the money makers that this is going to change.

[Cnut237]

If Biden is elected we are going to see a boom in prices both in the stock markets but also in the crypto markets.
Trump wasn't so popular in the Wall Street due to his radical opinions and the way that he wanted to cut the bonds from other countries. Biden is going to give a hope to the money makers that this is going to change.

There's also the point that if Biden wins, he then faces a Republican-controlled senate. It's this I think that's a key driver of the buoyant markets. Biden is not going to be able to implement higher taxes, tougher regulations, etc., if he has to get through the Rep senate to do so. Republicans have also flipped some House seats. A Biden administration is not going to have free rein.

[TwitchySeal]

If Biden is elected we are going to see a boom in prices both in the stock markets but also in the crypto markets.
Trump wasn't so popular in the Wall Street due to his radical opinions and the way that he wanted to cut the bonds from other countries. Biden is going to give a hope to the money makers that this is going to change.

There's also the point that if Biden wins, he then faces a Republican-controlled senate. It's this I think that's a key driver of the buoyant markets. Biden is not going to be able to implement higher taxes, tougher regulations, etc., if he has to get through the Rep senate to do so. Republicans have also flipped some House seats. A Biden administration is not going to have free rein.

He also can look forward to a shitload of investigations.

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

[casperBGD]

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

yeah, and up to this point, with Trump calling that he will not accept results, there is no Republicans that are calling this down and that all votes should be counted, and results accepted as it is, it was unthinkable for America before Trump, and now they are speaking about it, with four more Trump years, two mandates would be in question, he would probably asking for third mandate

[Mauser]

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

yeah, and up to this point, with Trump calling that he will not accept results, there is no Republicans that are calling this down and that all votes should be counted, and results accepted as it is, it was unthinkable for America before Trump, and now they are speaking about it, with four more Trump years, two mandates would be in question, he would probably asking for third mandate

Biden is in such strong lead at the moment that it seems very unlikely for Trump to win. Sure he can ask for a recount of the votes but this won't make Biden votes disappear. I think Trump knows he is finished and there is not much he can do. There were never three mandates before, this seems very unlikely in my opinion.

[suchmoon]

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

They will still be afraid of the base and of getting primaried out. Trump will likely try to keep the Republican base excited and loyal to him even if he loses... he's already doing fundraising to fight the "rigged election".

[philipma1957]

If Biden is elected we are going to see a boom in prices both in the stock markets but also in the crypto markets.
Trump wasn't so popular in the Wall Street due to his radical opinions and the way that he wanted to cut the bonds from other countries. Biden is going to give a hope to the money makers that this is going to change.

There's also the point that if Biden wins, he then faces a Republican-controlled senate. It's this I think that's a key driver of the buoyant markets. Biden is not going to be able to implement higher taxes, tougher regulations, etc., if he has to get through the Rep senate to do so. Republicans have also flipped some House seats. A Biden administration is not going to have free rein.

He also can look forward to a shitload of investigations.

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

Nope. every republican will abandon Trump if Biden becomes the president

[BADecker]

AS the polls suggest that Biden is near winning, Bitcoin has jumped from below $15,000 to, say, $15,250... in the last 20 minutes.

[squatz1]

Looking like Biden might pull it off by a hair now. One thing is certain, the media was WAY off with their predictions of a landslide victory.

Going to be tight, and even if Biden wins the polls were yet again very wrong and professional poll aggregators, like 538, are looking pretty dumb right now. They gave Trump a 10% chance of winning overall and a 30% chance of winning Florida, NC, and Georgia, though it seems like all of those predictions are wrong.

Not really sure on how you could mess up the polling stuff so bad in 2016 and not just be much more conservative this time around -- but I guess it has happened again. It's not like Trump has changed the voters that he targets or has changed his campaign in a massive way.

Same white uneducated demographic with a bit of a difference on Latinos and Cubans which may have been the harder part to predict.

[suchmoon]

30% chance of winning Florida, NC, and Georgia

This doesn't sound so bad, given how close Georgia is turning out to be. But they did significantly overestimate Biden's chances in some other places. Wisconsin is way closer than predicted for example.

In other news... Trumps lawsuits are being dismissed in Georgia and Michigan, which is not a surprise to anyone:

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-sues-3-states-election-c93acbc3e1f31baf3e9023b9b61696f7

In Philly observers did get closer access to watch the counting process. Trump is also suing in Nevada and will probably demand a recount in Wisconsin.

[Spendulus]

30% chance of winning Florida, NC, and Georgia

This doesn't sound so bad, given how close Georgia is turning out to be. But they did significantly overestimate Biden's chances in some other places. Wisconsin is way closer than predicted for example.

In other news... Trumps lawsuits are being dismissed in Georgia and Michigan, which is not a surprise to anyone:

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-sues-3-states-election-c93acbc3e1f31baf3e9023b9b61696f7

In Philly observers did get closer access to watch the counting process. Trump is also suing in Nevada and will probably demand a recount in Wisconsin.

May be of interest... I'm predicting six months maybe longer of stupid drama.

https://www.scotusblog.com/election-litigation/

[suchmoon]

Biden trails by less than 2000 votes in Georgia and there are >5000 ballots to be counted in a heavily blue Clayton county, that's been going for Biden ~4:1. So that one county can make it game over for Trump. There are ~10k votes remaining in other counties too and almost everything, including red counties, has been going for Biden so it's looking very good for him.

[bryant.coleman]

I am getting confused. In case the fight about the election outcome ends up in the supreme court, will Biden be able to sworn in as the president on January 2021? There are going to be tons of lawsuits. Republican observers were kicked out of the counting center in Michigan, access was denied to Republican observers in Pennsylvania, dead people voting in Nevada and so on.. 

[suchmoon]

I am getting confused. In case the fight about the election outcome ends up in the supreme court, will Biden be able to sworn in as the president on January 2021? There are going to be tons of lawsuits. Republican observers were kicked out of the counting center in Michigan, access was denied to Republican observers in Pennsylvania, dead people voting in Nevada and so on.. 

I doubt this will go anywhere. A few random lawsuits that Trump campaign tried to file have been thrown out because the lawyers couldn't produce evidence. They could force a couple of recounts (WI and GA) but that's about it.