US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[TwitchySeal]

On paper right now it's really close, but it seems like the most likely outcome is Dems sweeping when considering which ballots have yet to be counted.
Decision desk already called Warnock:

I am surprised that Warnock is outperforming Ossoff considering that Warnock is apparently a wife beater.

Check out Loefflers scandals and the police report about Warnock's ex wifes foot.

[theymos]

Well, this is disappointing. It would've been surprising a month ago, but after the Republicans' many recent failures, I'm not surprised. Looking forward:

I think that Democrats will be able to increase taxes a little, though not as much as what Biden proposed. Maybe corporate rates will go from 21% to 25%, and the top individual rate will go up a few points to Obama levels. I'd guess no changes to capital gains, or something fairly small if anything. Personally, I don't care too much about tax increases or big one-time spending projects (eg. a green infrastructure program); I'm much more concerned with lasting changes to law and precedent. Free speech is likely to be attacked through attacks on "hate speech" and substantially changing section 230. Minor gun control measures are likely. Further privacy violations are likely, especially in finance: all BTC holdings may be required to reported in the same way as foreign accounts, for example. Various harmful regulations are likely. Foreign involvement will increase, and while the administration may seem less bellicose compared to Trump, there will be probably be one or more Libya-style interventions. The administrative state will become larger, more powerful, and more entrenched. The best I can hope for is that Democrats are not very efficient or unified, they waste a lot of time not getting much lasting lawmaking done, and Republicans retake the House or Senate in 2 years. (A unified Republican government would do some of the same bad things I listed above, BTW, maybe just 20% less bad overall.)

I've been thinking that after a few quarters of above-average growth due to a partial recovery from COVID, the economy is headed for 5+ years of very low growth and moderate inflation due to scarring from the economic damage that's been done, a lot of accumulated malinvestment, and the unprecedented levels of spending and money-printing. This election result probably won't have a huge effect on the economic outlook one way or another, though the economic situation may put Democrats on the back foot politically going forward. This economic environment is good for BTC, but there is a very high probability of harmful regulations, so this election result makes me more bearish for Bitcoin over the next few years.

Some silver linings:

First, if Republicans had won, it'd be 2 years of boring stonewalling from McConnell, whereas the current situation will be a much more interesting display of infighting and intense political maneuvering. Democrats have several deep divides which they'll have to deal with. Republicans will be trying to play of a game of simultaneously trying to build back their base, stopping Democrats from enacting their major policy goals or getting wins, and negotiating-with/pressuring Democrats to bring them further right. It'll be fun to watch.

Second, maybe this will knock some sense into Republicans, and they'll move away from their current strategy of mostly abandoning two-thirds of their supporters in favor of pandering extra strongly to the most braindead segment of Republican voters. I want to see halfway-decent Republicans like Rand Paul and Mike Lee learn from Trump's past successes, but forcefully reject Trump's insanity. They need to stop saying, "Well, maybe it's OK to be a little bit completely insane." (Not because I care about American institutions, but because insanity leads to failure, and I don't want to see 20 years of Democratic control of government.)

Third, as part of winning, Democrats chose to form a coalition with many quite economically conservative groups of voters. There's no way they're going to even attempt something like Medicare for All anytime soon; Biden himself would veto it. Today's Democratic party is firmly a neoliberal party, basically an extension of the Business Roundtable. This is definitely bad, but it's 95% status quo: "Nothing will fundamentally change," as Biden famously said.

[DaveF]

I am surprised that Warnock is outperforming Ossoff considering that Warnock is apparently a wife beater.

This is part sarcasm and part (sadly) the truth. There are a lot of voters out there in that state that don't care because the do it too.
Not saying that the other side looks the other way for things that they do, just that to some it's a bunch of meh.

...
Third, as part of winning, Democrats chose to form a coalition with many quite economically conservative groups of voters. There's no way they're going to even attempt something like Medicare for All anytime soon; Biden himself would veto it. Today's Democratic party is firmly a neoliberal party, basically an extension of the Business Roundtable. This is definitely bad, but it's 95% status quo: "Nothing will fundamentally change," as Biden famously said.

After the 1st few months yes, but:
Years ago, I don't remember when I saw a movie that had the wonderful quote "Fuck you, you fuckity fuck" And since all of us in the office are originally from Brooklyn / Queens / Da Bronx it just became a wildly inappropriate thing to say around the office when someone pissed us off. I see that happening for a bit.

Probably not in any way that matters in the long run. i.e. lower emissions standards / higher MPG requirements. They are changing no matter what, you can kick and scream all you want but when 75% of the word adopts a standard you are either going to join them or not sell to that 75%. The auto makers can do all the posturing they want, but as they fought CA they also were planning more efficient vehicles.

And I see every open Judge's seat being appointed as fast as they can get them in.

Just to say FU to the R's

Things that people on both sides wanted I can see being pushed through but leaning a bit more left.

But free college / Medicare for all / I don't see it.

-Dave

How Lauda would have put the quote:

[Gyfts]

LMAOOOOOOO

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346900434540240897

I literally had this in my bingo card that Trump would throw his own Vice President down the stairs because he didn't get his way. Grade A narcissist with an incredibly fragile ego. Meanwhile, the US capitol building is being sieged by a bunch of Trump rioters forcing evacuation on the senate floor. This is completely on Trump, and I think this last month of his Presidency will define his entire administration as a dumpster fire.

Republican party is going to be in shambles. "Trumpism" isn't going away and Republicans are going to be forced to embrace it. This is identical to democrats embracing progressive radicals in their party. Seems like it is now a two way street.

[suchmoon]

Stock market seems to like Ossoff's and Warnock's wins, except Nasdaq for some reason. Perhaps a clamp down on Big Tech is expected.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-wednesday-75095771

On Wednesday:

The S&P 500 rose 21.28 points, or 0.6%, to 3,748.14.

The Dow gained 437.80 points, or 1.4%, to 30,829.40.

The Nasdaq composite fell 78.17 points, or 0.6%, to 12,740.79.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies climbed 78.81 points, or 4%, to 2,057.92.

Bitcoin up 10%+ too.

[nutildah]

Stock market seems to like Ossoff's and Warnock's wins, except Nasdaq for some reason. Perhaps a clamp down on Big Tech is expected.

That's weird. I listened to the full Trump phone call with the Georgia Secretary of State the other day and he said the markets would be devastated if that happened.

[squatz1]

Stock market seems to like Ossoff's and Warnock's wins, except Nasdaq for some reason. Perhaps a clamp down on Big Tech is expected.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-wednesday-75095771

On Wednesday:

The S&P 500 rose 21.28 points, or 0.6%, to 3,748.14.

The Dow gained 437.80 points, or 1.4%, to 30,829.40.

The Nasdaq composite fell 78.17 points, or 0.6%, to 12,740.79.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies climbed 78.81 points, or 4%, to 2,057.92.

Bitcoin up 10%+ too.

Pretty sure they’re expecting a bipartisan assault on bigtech, which is probably to be expected given the fact that both sides are cool with regulating tech — either through removing something like section 230 (which is only really wanted by the right) - or breaking up monopolies, which is something that the left wants.

They’ll find some common ground between those extreme points, not sure where they’ll be at. But maybe we’ll see some sort of laws relating to data (GDPR in the EU) or about how companies should treat data surrounding data breaches.

Who the hell knows now, but big tech is going to be regulated more under a Biden admin.

Market is happy cause stimulus and trade deals will be more stable.

[TwitchySeal]

With Ted Cruz making a fool of himself (in his defense, hilariously unlucky timing having to go from his speech to hiding under his desk) and so many Republicans finally conceding Trump is a psycho I expect a whole bunch of people working for Trump to resign very soon if they have any reputation left to salvage. 

[squatz1]

With Ted Cruz making a fool of himself (in his defense, hilariously unlucky timing having to go from his speech to hiding under his desk) and so many Republicans finally conceding Trump is a psycho I expect a whole bunch of people working for Trump to resign very soon if they have any reputation left to salvage. 

Expecting a TON of people in the WH to resign over the next few days. Only way to ensure that they’ll have a job in the next Republican administration, as this is the last straw for Trumpism in the party — or at least for the future of the party.

I’ve seen reports of staffers of McCarthys (House minority leader - GOP) saying that they may resign in protest over him helping to start this fire. Many reports of WH staffers and aides and such within the executive branch.

Axios is reporting that some cabinet members are discussing invoking the 25th amendment. No word from Pence though - https://www.axios.com/republicans-trump-removal-25th-amendment-a91c9dc4-b01f-4a50-ae41-aea971388d57.html

National manufacturing lobbying group came out and is backing the call as well. We’ll see where that goes and what Trump does on his twitter as a response.

[PrimeNumber7]

With Ted Cruz making a fool of himself (in his defense, hilariously unlucky timing having to go from his speech to hiding under his desk) and so many Republicans finally conceding Trump is a psycho I expect a whole bunch of people working for Trump to resign very soon if they have any reputation left to salvage.  

Expecting a TON of people in the WH to resign over the next few days. Only way to ensure that they’ll have a job in the next Republican administration, as this is the last straw for Trumpism in the party — or at least for the future of the party.

There have been a handful of Press/communications related resignations today. I wouldn't think much of this until 'real' staffers start to resign, such as those who have actual influence on police.

Axios is reporting that some cabinet members are discussing invoking the 25th amendment. No word from Pence though - https://www.axios.com/republicans-trump-removal-25th-amendment-a91c9dc4-b01f-4a50-ae41-aea971388d57.html

There is a discussion here --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307383.0

National manufacturing lobbying group came out and is backing the call as well. We’ll see where that goes and what Trump does on his twitter as a response.

Trump is actually banned on Twitter. Expect to see a thread by RealDonaldTrump2 trying to appeal the ban in meta. There are a lot of business leaders condemning the violence (its too bad they didn't do the same this summer).

[suchmoon]

Expecting a TON of people in the WH to resign over the next few days. Only way to ensure that they’ll have a job in the next Republican administration, as this is the last straw for Trumpism in the party — or at least for the future of the party.

After the last four years - or maybe I was always that cynical - I don't believe that this dissent will last. Some Republicans will say the correct words, some will quietly wait it out, but when the next round of primaries starts they will all be pandering to Trump's base again, which will see this attack on the Capitol as real patriots doing the right thing. Fox News is already weaving a narrative to that effect. I'm sure Newsmax and OAN are way ahead.

[squatz1]

Expecting a TON of people in the WH to resign over the next few days. Only way to ensure that they’ll have a job in the next Republican administration, as this is the last straw for Trumpism in the party — or at least for the future of the party.

After the last four years - or maybe I was always that cynical - I don't believe that this dissent will last. Some Republicans will say the correct words, some will quietly wait it out, but when the next round of primaries starts they will all be pandering to Trump's base again, which will see this attack on the Capitol as real patriots doing the right thing. Fox News is already weaving a narrative to that effect. I'm sure Newsmax and OAN are way ahead.

I don’t know about that, I truly think this may be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Pandering to Trumps base is one thing, though I highly doubt the 40% of Americans (his base, probably a smaller number then this though) support what happened in the Capitol today.

I can only imagine what is going on at OAN, Newsmax, and Fox — though I do think a lot of people saw this for what it is today without having their narrative fed by someone else. Like just seeing the pictures and videos on social media / newspaper / whatever medium you use is enough to show that what happened today WENT WAY TOO FAR.

Depends on the amount of pressure the next few days have though, that’s where we see what we’ll make of all of this. I still do think that the Trump rule of the party is tainted, and will probably be leaning towards an end here. Gives GOP a lot of wiggle room to run away from him now.

[suchmoon]

Pandering to Trumps base is one thing, though I highly doubt the 40% of Americans (his base, probably a smaller number then this though) support what happened in the Capitol today.

Well, even if that's the case, there is another angle that could work - this was a false flag attack to push Biden's certification through. They will adopt whatever narrative plays best with the base and I doubt it would be "Trump incited violence at the Capitol". Keep in mind that none of the "election fraud" fantasy is going away and that is the foundation of this whole conflict.

[TwitchySeal]

Pandering to Trumps base is one thing, though I highly doubt the 40% of Americans (his base, probably a smaller number then this though) support what happened in the Capitol today.

Well, even if that's the case, there is another angle that could work - this was a false flag attack to push Biden's certification through. They will adopt whatever narrative plays best with the base and I doubt it would be "Trump incited violence at the Capitol". Keep in mind that none of the "election fraud" fantasy is going away and that is the foundation of this whole conflict.

Tash has you covered: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307332.msg56041284#msg56041284

BADecker will fill us in on the details later today I'm sure.

[squatz1]

Pandering to Trumps base is one thing, though I highly doubt the 40% of Americans (his base, probably a smaller number then this though) support what happened in the Capitol today.

Well, even if that's the case, there is another angle that could work - this was a false flag attack to push Biden's certification through. They will adopt whatever narrative plays best with the base and I doubt it would be "Trump incited violence at the Capitol". Keep in mind that none of the "election fraud" fantasy is going away and that is the foundation of this whole conflict.

I’ve been seeing this angle pop up more and more on social media - Lin Wood (lawyer for Trump at somepoint, may even be now) - is sharing pictures of a few people that were at BOTH AT BLM PROTESTS AND WERE AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHICH MEANS THAT THEY’RE OBVIOUSLY PAID ACTORS

Pretty interesting mental gymnastics to convince yourself that at first there was nothing wrong with this event, but then at a certain point far left extremists got in with the intention of making yall look bad by agitating(?)

Pandering to Trumps base is one thing, though I highly doubt the 40% of Americans (his base, probably a smaller number then this though) support what happened in the Capitol today.

Well, even if that's the case, there is another angle that could work - this was a false flag attack to push Biden's certification through. They will adopt whatever narrative plays best with the base and I doubt it would be "Trump incited violence at the Capitol". Keep in mind that none of the "election fraud" fantasy is going away and that is the foundation of this whole conflict.

Tash has you covered: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307332.msg56041284#msg56041284

BADecker will fill us in on the details later today I'm sure.

Sigh.

[suchmoon]

8 resignations after the first 24 hours:

Such tough decisions... stay for two weeks until losing their jobs anyway or pretend to have a spine.

[DaveF]

8 resignations after the first 24 hours:

Such tough decisions... stay for two weeks until losing their jobs anyway or pretend to have a spine.

They want to get a head start on finding good lawyers to defend them.
Get in line early before all the good ones are taken.

I think one really good thing that Trump did was energize a lot of people about the way a lot of people in government violate the law and get away with it.
It has always been done, on both sides, and with some administrations more then others.
Now I see after decades of this people pissed enough to do something.

Devos, Mnuchin, Chao, Mulvaney all did it so publicly and flagrantly that it has many people on both sides wanting them nailed to the wall.
Was listening to a legal show the other day and some prosecutors were talking, some from "deep red" states and some from "deep blue" states about how since mid November they had been working together to draft something against some of these people. Will it go anywhere? Who knows, but even if it fizzles they are going to be spending a large amount of their next few years getting to testify about their actions.

Due to the current economic situation Mnuchin might make it out without getting hit. But the others, even if it's just at the state level, yeah they are getting subpoenas to testify about their actions.

-Dave

[suchmoon]

Devos, Mnuchin, Chao, Mulvaney all did it so publicly and flagrantly that it has many people on both sides wanting them nailed to the wall.

Did any of them actually condemn Trump's coup attempt? Because if they left with "it was an honor to work for you sir" then they're just trying to avoid making the decision regarding 25th, and not willing to burn bridges with the base.

[TwitchySeal]

It's Trumps penultimate Friday as President (or possibly his final Friday) - a good time for him to do things he doesn't want to get as much coverage by the media. Pardonpalooza in a couple hours?

[suchmoon]

It's Trumps penultimate Friday as President (or possibly his final Friday) - a good time for him to do things he doesn't want to get as much coverage by the media. Pardonpalooza in a couple hours?

Does he still have anyone around to prepare the paperwork? Not sure if pardon via tweet would hold up in court.