U.S. Elections 2020, epic bet: nullius vs. theymos!

[nullius]

Original OP has been moved to Post #2.  2020-10-31:  Posted my PGP commitment.  —And, theymos posted his PGP commitment!  The epic bet is on!

Are you a trusted forum member?  Do you want to bet against theymos, for the benefit of charity?  Read this thread for details, and ask theymos if he will take your bet.

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

The bet is 0.01 BTC on even odds that Trump will win, and theymos’ prediction is incorrect:

I'm thinking that Biden is going to win by a landslide.

To be clear, these bets should not be taken as moral or political endorsements of the candidates.

To be clear: I'm not at all certain that Trump will lose, and although I don't like or support him, I'd prefer that he win over Biden.

If I were a Trump man, then I would just put my money where my mouth is.  Stand up for my side.  But why should I take a risk on Trump of potentially giving my money to a freaking TDS liberal?  Trump is not “my side”...

I despise Trump much more than the TDS crowd does.  (For totally different reasons.)

Active bets:

• nullius vs. theymos:  We’re on!  I just need to decide on details about how to handle the charity, write a PGP-signed statement, and request same from theymos.  Will update when this is done.  Done.
• eddie13 vs. theymos:  Pending theymos’ acceptance of eddie’s proposal.
• Any others?  You, dear reader?  Do you have the reputation for it?  If so, don’t be shy!  I am guessing that there are a quite limited number of these bets available, so speak up now.

However if he does accept then this bet will be one of the most epic bet ever placed on Bitcointalk (call me biased about the epic ness of this, bet but this is what I personally feel).

Agreed!


Credit to eddie13 for inspiring this bet, and for the current topic title:

Maybe you should change the OP title to something like "theymos bets YOU for charity"..

Local Rules:  Effective immediately, suchmoon is categorically banned from all of my self-moderated threads (unless I make an accusation against her, in which she will be accorded a fair right of reply).  The post to which I replied has the same subject matter, i.e. offering a wager to theymos.  It has not been deleted; therefore, I draw the obvious inference.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

Others will be moderated according to my sound discretion.  Please stay on topic.

[nullius]

Original OP (a term approved by the Department of Redundancy Department)

I didn’t want to make a whole topic for this, but my offer was deleted by a Biden supporter—whereas I am not even a Trump supporter!

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

I'm thinking that Biden is going to win by a landslide.

Wanna bet me another 0.01? Or?

Let’s make this interesting.  Why should you make all of the money if Trump wins?  Nully vs. theymos! :-)

Code:

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

I, the person identified by the PGP key signing this message, do hereby
offer theymos (bitcointalk.org adminstrator, u=35) the following wager,
subject to theymos’ acceptance hereof with a digitally signed message
from one of his well-known keys (PGP or Bitcoin):

My 0.01 BTC bet on even odds that Donald J. Trump will win the 2020
U.S. Presidential Election.

Reference number:
db4b57d9dd5779b04988bd4520de55f44f84d76fd7d594a6ea53f49bb8ce380e

# Terms:

0. This bet shall NOT be construed as my political or moral endorsement of
Trump in any way.  For the record, I despise the man (for reasons quite
different than those of the TDS crowd).  But I predict that he will win,
and I will wager accordingly.

1. If the election results are officially contested in any way, then
the bet will be resolved by waiting to see who actually takes office
for the next U.S. presidential term.

Otherwise, the loser of the bet shall pay it promptly after the election
results are announced, and the losing candidate concedes or otherwise
indicates acceptance thereof.  For reference:  The election is scheduled
for 2020-11-03.

2. If theymos does not accept this offer within 48 hours from the PGP
signature time hereof, then this wager is null and void.

3. If Trump himself is removed from the running before the end of
2020-11-03 due to death, incapacity, or any other reason, then this
wager is null and void.  Note:  This wager is about whether or not
Trump wins.  If Biden is removed from the running, then the wager will
remain in effect.

4. If theymos accepts this wager, then I will provide to him a PGP
signed message with a Bitcoin address (native Segwit) that he shall use
for payment if I win.  For blockchain privacy reasons, I will request,
but not require, that he not publicize this address unless any dispute
arises over the wager.

5. If this wager is accepted and I lose it, then I will pay 0.01 BTC
either to an address provided to me by theymos for that purpose in a
digitally signed message, or to 1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD,
in that order of preference.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iHUEARYKAB0WIQSNOMR84IlYpr/EF5vEJ5MVn575SQUCX5dpmgAKCRDEJ5MVn575
SdWAAP9bdMHSSMoKQRL/TKE1XYOzsssBhvTZyAUXH9na7h7PBwD9HYr9J1RW8eya
9G/OIRMBrE5tUrOfUh13KiSCVebuKQc=
=WTZM
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

Additional comments:

I halfway expect for theymos to decline or to ignore this.  Perhaps he just doesn’t want to bet.  On the other hand, he thinks that Biden will win “by a landslide”, as a practical matter—even though he doesn’t seem to be a Biden supporter; so why not bet?

On the flipside, as aforesaid, I despise Trump; but I think that he will win.  It is a good match for a wager.

I would not place this bet with a Biden supporter, because I don’t want to give a Biden supporter any of my money if Trump loses.

theymos seems to concur with me, albeit for different reasons.  I would not mind paying him if my prediction is incorrect.


Local Rules:  Effective immediately, suchmoon is categorically banned from all of my self-moderated threads (unless I make an accusation against her, in which she will be accorded a fair right of reply).  The post to which I replied has the same subject matter, i.e. offering a wager to theymos.  It has not been deleted; therefore, I draw the obvious inference.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

Others will be moderated according to my sound discretion.  Please stay on topic.

[Juggy777]

I didn’t want to make a whole topic for this, but my offer was deleted by a Biden supporter—whereas I am not even a Trump supporter!

2. If theymos does not accept this offer within 48 hours from the PGP
signature time hereof, then this wager is null and void.

4. If theymos accepts this wager, then I will provide to him a PGP
signed message with a Bitcoin address (native Segwit) that he shall use
for payment if I win.  For blockchain privacy reasons, I will request,
but not require, that he not publicize this address unless any dispute
arises over the wager.

I halfway expect for theymos to decline or to ignore this.  Perhaps he just doesn’t want to bet.  On the other hand, he thinks that Biden will win “by a landslide”, as a practical matter—even though he doesn’t seem to be a Biden supporter; so why not bet?

On the flipside, as aforesaid, I despise Trump; but I think that he will win.  It is a good match for a wager.

Others will be moderated according to my sound discretion.

@nullius before I begin I would like to state that I have been supporting Trump since quiet a while now, and personally I feel that @theymos will not accept this bet.

However if he does accept then this bet will be one of the most epic bet ever placed on Bitcointalk (call me biased about the epic ness of this, bet but this is what I personally feel).

Furthermore at this stage I feel that Trump can only win by taking the election results to the court, otherwise it’s difficult if not impossible for him to win.

Also I have come to this conclusion because Trump doesn’t have the backing of the Indo American voters who’s votes will be crucial, and lastly his filthy air remark for India hasn’t gone well hence I feel that he’ll loose the elections.

Sources:

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/522767-could-justice-amy-coney-barrett-deliver-the-election-to-trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/24/daily-202-trump-says-supreme-court-pick-could-decide-election-while-refusing-commit-peaceful-transfer-power/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54656881

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/27/927828785/despite-trump-modi-friendship-survey-says-indian-americans-back-biden

[nullius]

I halfway expect for theymos to decline or to ignore this.  Perhaps he just doesn’t want to bet.  On the other hand, he thinks that Biden will win “by a landslide”, as a practical matter—even though he doesn’t seem to be a Biden supporter; so why not bet?

On the flipside, as aforesaid, I despise Trump; but I think that he will win.  It is a good match for a wager.

@nullius before I begin I would like to state that I have been supporting Trump since quiet a while now, and personally I feel that @theymos will not accept this bet.

I think that I should explain a bit more about why I offered this to theymos, specifically.

I enjoy gambling (reflink), at least in theory—although I don’t do much of it.  It’s an exciting entertainment!  And I think that from some of my remarks on the eddie13 vs. suchmoon thread, it’s obvious that I was hinting at a desire to get in on the action here:

Like betting on cockfights or football games:  The whole concept of this thread adequately sums the value of democracy.  It is entertainment.

If I wanted to bet, I would be a contrarian, and bet on Trump.  For the reason that you state, I would probably want better than even odds.

I say this even though I despise Trump much more than the TDS crowd does.  (For totally different reasons.)

The problem with that is that I deeply despise liberals—even moreso than the cat did; much more...

Liberalism is a disease.

Merited by Lauda (29)

Anyone considering to vote for Biden should read the lyrics of her song WEX and consider if you want to vote for someone who is associating with someone like Cardi B.

If I were a Trump man, then I would just put my money where my mouth is.  Stand up for my side.  But why should I take a risk on Trump of potentially giving my money to a freaking TDS liberal?  Trump is not “my side”, and I am not playing this game:

A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

How do you feel about Trump?

• ☐ I LOVE TRUMP!!! 🤩
• ☐ I HATE TRUMP!!! 😡

That is not very good for Biden, in and of itself.

How can I fulfill my desire to place my contrarian bet, without betting against a Biden supporter Trump-hater?

The answer hit me when I saw eddie13’s offer to theymos, as I quoted and (originally) replied to:

I'm thinking that Biden is going to win by a landslide.

Wanna bet me another 0.01? Or?

theymos seems to concur with me, albeit perhaps coming from a somewhat different direction:

I feel bad for all of the people who have tied themselves up personally with this election, as if Trump or Biden actually cared about them, or as if their election will actually matter much to the voters personally.

A wager between us would be a perfect match!

However if he does accept then this bet will be one of the most epic bet ever placed on Bitcointalk (call me biased about the epic ness of this, bet but this is what I personally feel).

Indeed.  Epic.  A moment for the forum’s historic annals.  If I do say so myself, I think that the only question is whether theymos wants to bet with anybody at all. ;-)

My only regret in offering this is that I cannot in prudence go higher.  Think of what 0.01 BTC will be worth someday!  I’m a Scrooge with the sats.  HoDL, HoDL, HoDL.  Whereas I think it’s safe to say that theymos is a hardcore Bitcoiner; if he accepts the bet and I lose, then he should HoDL in good health.

[theymos]

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

To be clear: I'm not at all certain that Trump will lose, and although I don't like or support him, I'd prefer that he win over Biden. But AFAICT his chance of winning isn't even 25%, so taking a bet at even odds makes sense.

[nullius]

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

I will take you up on that!

For my part, consistently with the theme of my above statements about liberals:  Would any Americans care to suggest a nondenominational, nonpartisan American gun rights organization that (a) does not block Tor at their website, and (b) accepts anonymous Bitcoin donations at a publicly known address?  (Too bad about blockchain privacy; payment of the bet must be verifiable somehow.)  Not the NRA—a principled organization.  A few suggestions would be welcome, so that I can choose something that I feel comfortable supporting.  I am picky.

If I am provided appropriate links so that I can see if I approve the organization, and I can verify their Bitcoin address, then I will produce a fresh PGP-signed statement committing to this from my side.

If no suitable suggestions are offered, then in the interest of free expression and free thought in learning environments, I will instead need to figure out how these folks botched a native Segwit address that, it seems, nobody has ever tried:

FIRE’s donation receipt addresses:

Bitcoin: qqqfaujpa4m66axd9h4y66538pk7yk4rguzt3wm7r3

To be clear: I'm not at all certain that Trump will lose, and although I don't like or support him, I'd prefer that he win over Biden. But AFAICT his chance of winning isn't even 25%, so taking a bet at even odds makes sense.

Of course.  The wager would not be exciting, if the outcome were certain. :-)


By the way, a clarification:

The problem with that is that I deeply despise liberals—even moreso than the cat did; much more...

How much more?

I have been calling Trump a Communist for about the past five years.  I tossed out that thing about the history of Antifa while I was working on a cartoon about Orange Dolt Kerensky (R) versus Senile Dementia Lenin (D).  (To be posted, after I finish the accompanying text.)

That much more.

Edit:  Minor clarifications.

[theymos]

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Would any Americans care to suggest a nondenominational, nonpartisan American gun rights organization that (a) does not block Tor at their website, and (b) accepts anonymous Bitcoin donations at a publicly known address?  (Too bad about blockchain privacy; payment of the bet must be verifiable somehow.)

Most charities are using crypto payment processors nowadays, which is nice for avoiding address reuse, but bad for verification. Probably we'll just have to use one of these and post a screenshot of the receipt, which is not truly verifiable, but this'll be among trusted forum members anyway.

The New Civil Liberties Alliance has done some gun-rights-related cases, though it's not their focus. If I lose the bet, I might donate to the Foundation for Economic Education. Both accept donations via The Giving Block, which allows anonymous BTC donations.

[nullius]

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Topic title set accordingly.  Anyone else want to bet against theymos, for the benefit of good causes?

By the way, from your earlier post:

To be clear: I'm not at all certain that Trump will lose, and although I don't like or support him, I'd prefer that he win over Biden.

I do suppose that you may marginally prefer Kerensky over Lenin.  Thus, we still concur.

The New Civil Liberties Alliance has done some gun-rights-related cases, though it's not their focus. If I lose the bet, I might donate to the Foundation for Economic Education. Both accept donations via The Giving Block, which allows anonymous BTC donations.

Wow, theymos.  You know how to pick them!  My only question is if The Giving Block works reliably through Tor.  I am still open to other suggestions.  Before I write my PGP-signed commitment to this, I must consider a backup plan in case I need to donate, and I run into... problems.  (Experience hereby speaks.)

On a brief perusal of NCLA’s press releases, I see these issues pop up:

“Administrative law” tyranny:

... A president could for example wield the administrative state in such a way as to make it very difficult to use Bitcoin without existing in the shadows, and a Biden administration is probably more likely to move in this direction than a Trump administration. ...

... “administrative law” tyranny.  I think that most American consider the U.S. Code to be “Federal law”; well, what about that other conjoined-twin body of Federal law, the C.F.R.? ...

NCLA Applauds Supreme Court Nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Record on Administrative Power

Washington, DC (September 26, 2020) — The New Civil Liberties Alliance commends President Trump’s nomination of the Honorable Amy Coney Barrett to fill the U.S. Supreme Court seat of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

NCLA, a nonpartisan, nonprofit civil rights group devoted to protecting constitutional freedoms from violations by the Administrative State, analyzed Judge Barrett’s interpretation of administrative power issues, including any record of questioning judicial deference or bias in favor of agencies in a white paper of prospective nominees released this week.

NCLA strongly believes we need federal judges who are willing to protect the civil liberties of individual Americans from unlawful administrative power. If courts will not check administrative abuses when they occur and force federal agencies to stick to constitutional pathways, then the government will run amok and civil liberties will be lost.

An issue that should be of grave concern to every Bitcoiner in the United States:

NCLA Now Accepts Cryptocurrencies to Enhance Charitable Giving Opportunities for Donors

Aug 18, 2020

[...] (https://nclalegal.org/donate-crypto/) [...]

NCLA was inspired to open donations to the crypto community after learning more about digital donations through our recently launched case, James Harper v. Charles P. Rettig, et al., currently before the U.S. District Court for the District of New Hampshire. The lawsuit argues that the IRS has acquired the unbridled power to demand and seize Americans’ private financial information from third parties without any judicial process.

Although the digital virtual currency exchanges that facilitated his transactions had contractually promised Mr. Harper to protect his private information, the IRS somehow obtained his records without a valid subpoena, court order, or judicial warrant based on probable cause. [...]

Gun rights, too:

NCLA Wages Legal Battle Against ATF’s Unlawful Bump Stock Final Rule in Texas and Utah

Washington, DC (October 6, 2020) —The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) is substantively rewriting federal criminal law with its Final Rule on bump stock-type devices, concluded the New Civil Liberties Alliance in two recent court filings against the ATF in lawsuits originally filed in Texas and Utah.

For the purposes of this bet, it is will suffice for my part.  As I said, though, I am still open to other suggestions.

I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

Please read the local rules before posting.

[eddie13]

Maybe you should change the OP title to something like "theymos bets YOU for charity"..

Me, I'm not so much for charities TBH.. I'm not wealthy, and feel I have been forced to give far too much of my hard earned income to "charity" via taxes already.. I've even paid nonconsensual charity on Bitcoin dealings..
My posts here have largely been for libertarian charity, so their is that too..

Glad I was able to spark some friendly forum betting though.. I think it's good to get some coins actually P2P moving.. I think the community needs more action like this.. Move some coins P2P, not just to exchanges...



Ok fine.. I'll do it for 1mm Satoshis IF theymos can sign it right VS me the first time and not fuck it up..
Write a decent contract and sign it..

And I'll put the funds towards practice ammo for one of the the first-time-gun-buyers I convince and drag into the gun store, for them to learn..
I've sold many guns for Jay's this year, mostly to my female friends, convincing them to buy their first pistols, and have burnt up wayyy too much of my own stash teaching them proper operation.. Not even considering time accompanying, advising, and teaching..
If I lose, some young girl will better learn how to handle their first pistol, no [middlemen, no bureaucracy, no bullshit (charity)].. And I'll prove the purchase and spending with a pic (empty box, girl, and target)..
If I win, I'll be doing/spending it anyway, and I'll send it wherever you want..
Buy a first-time-gun-buyer a box or 2 of practice ammo..

American gun rights organization

gun-rights-related

Good enough?

Edit: Neh.. Changed my mind..

[nullius]

The top line is, you’re a gent, eddie!  Of course, it is up to theymos whether or not he accepts your local direct help to people for the purposes of the bet.  I myself would, but I’m not him; and I am not betting against you—unless you want to hedge with me on the Biden anti-Trump side?  ;-)  I’m not sure if I could afford to risk another 0.01 BTC...

Maybe you should change the OP title to something like "theymos bets YOU for charity"..

Edit:  Topic title tweaked per your suggestion.  Thanks.

Me, I'm not so much for charities TBH.. I'm not wealthy,

Copying what I said on the other thread:

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..

Nor am I.  (Largely because nonprofit organizations are usually corrupt as hell.)

The way I see it:  If I were to bet against theymos and lose, then he could donate the money if he wants.  Now, if I lose, I will instead donate to something suggested by him, and acceptable to me; whereas if I win, he will donate to something that I probably do not disagree with.

Either way, it is much better than risking that I may give my money to a liberal!

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

Nor am I.  It is an open secret that I’m poor.  0.01 BTC is significant to me—I can afford to risk it, but barely so.  I wouldn’t want to make a fuss about it.  Moreover, there is no practical difference between sending the money to theymos, and sending it to the NCLA:  Either way, I am out 0.01 BTC if Trump loses.

and feel I have been forced to give far too much of my hard earned income to "charity" via taxes already.. I've even paid nonconsensual charity on Bitcoin dealings..

Damn straight.  But it would be a pleasant change to give to something that you agree with, yes?

My posts here have largely been for libertarian charity, so their is that too..

Same here.  I have said many times (too lazy/hasty to dig for self-quotes now):  Whatever time and effort I spend advocating for Bitcoin is given not for free, but for freedom.

Ok fine.. I'll do it for 1mm Satoshis IF theymos can sign it right VS me the first time and not fuck it up..
Write a decent contract and sign it..

^^^ THIS!  Thank you.  I should have stipulated that as a condition myself.  (I did in my original offer, but not to theymos’ counter-offer.)

And I'll put the funds towards practice ammo for one of the the first-time-gun-buyers I convince and drag into the gun store, for them to learn..
I've sold many guns for Jay's this year, mostly to my female friends, convincing them to buy their first pistols, and have burnt up wayyy too much of my own stash teaching them proper operation.. Not even considering time accompanying, advising, and teaching..
If I lose, some young girl will better learn how to handle their first pistol, no [middlemen, no bureaucracy, no bullshit (charity)].. And I'll prove the purchase and spending with a pic (empty box, girl, and target)..
If I win, I'll be doing/spending it anyway, and I'll send it wherever you want..
Buy a first-time-gun-buyer a box or 2 of practice ammo..

American gun rights organization

gun-rights-related

Good enough?

I like how you do it.  But theymos will have to make the call here.

(It goes without saying, any photos including other people should not be identifiable in any way...)

Glad I was able to spark some friendly forum betting though..

It is indeed to your credit.  Thanks.  This is fun!

[eddie13]

I like how you do it.  But theymos will have to make the call here.

(It goes without saying, any photos including other people should not be identifiable in any way...)

Actually probably a stupid idea on second thought.. I was gonna chop that just now but you quoted it.. Whatever..

[nullius]

Happy Bitcoinday!  My PGP-signed commitment to the charity bet is below, as promised.

I am a bit disappointed that I had no suggestions for an American gun rights organization that accepts anonymous Bitcoin donations.  This is P&S!  I expected to receive a barrage of opinions.

I am not disappointed by theymos’ suggestion of the NCLA.  I played around a bit with the Giving Block thingie, and it looks like it should work just fine...  Hey, American Bitcoiners, do you care about the problem of the IRS being a financial mass-surveillance agency?  Make a 501(c)(3) tax-deductible donation (or if you prefer, an anonymous donation) of Bitcoin to the NCLA through Tor, and let me know how it goes!  No matter what your opinion of taxes, the NCLA’s case against the IRS is a fight for privacy.

NCLA represents Mr. Harper before the United States District Court for the District of New Hampshire. Mr. Harper’s “crime”? Holding a bitcoin wallet. The lawsuit argues that the IRS has acquired the unbridled power to demand and seize Americans’ private financial information from third parties without any judicial process in defiance of the Fourth and Fifth Amendments and statutory protections.

Mr. Harper bought his first bitcoin in 2013, and ever since then, he diligently paid all applicable taxes and reported his trades related to bitcoin holdings. Throughout these years, all his transactions were facilitated through three digital virtual currency exchanges: Coinbase, Abra, and Uphold. Given that all of them had contractually promised Mr. Harper to protect his private information, he was genuinely surprised when on August 9, 2019, he received a letter from IRS informing him that the agency had obtained his financial records related to ownership of bitcoin without any particularized suspicion of wrongdoing. Mr. Harper is one of 10,000 virtual currency owners who received such a letter, according to the IRS website.

[...] The Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution protects “the right of the people to be secure in their … papers … against unreasonable searches and seizures.” [...]

This case presents the opportunity to correct the course of constitutional privacy law.

My own opinion:  Most racketeering gangsters will at least sort of somewhat almost leave you alone, if you pay the demanded “protection” money.  From Mr. Harper’s case, it is evident that even if you pay up, the IRS will rape your privacy, and then threaten you more.  And in addition to being racketeers, the IRS are typical sleazy scammers.^[1]

The NCLA is also fighting the BATF over bump stocks; so, it seems that they don’t pick and choose à la carte amongst your rights.

Good enough, eddie?  I can be persuasive, can I not?

Thanks for the suggestion, theymos.  Your election just got interesting! ;-)

Code:

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

I, the person identified by the PGP key signing this message, do
hereby commit for my part to the following charity bet with theymos
(bitcointalk.org adminstrator, u=35):

My 0.01 BTC wager on even odds that Donald J. Trump will win the 2020
U.S. Presidential Election.  If Trump loses the election, then subject to
the below terms, I will pay 0.01 BTC to the New Civil Liberties Alliance
via their donation page at:

https://nclalegal.org/donate-crypto/

Reference number:
db4b57d9dd5779b04988bd4520de55f44f84d76fd7d594a6ea53f49bb8ce380e

Forum thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5284654.0

# Terms:

0. This bet shall NOT be construed as my political or moral endorsement of
Trump in any way.  For the record, I despise the man (for reasons quite
different than those of the TDS crowd).  But I predict that he will win,
and I will wager accordingly.

1. If the election results are officially contested in any way, then
the bet will be resolved by waiting to see who actually takes office
for the next U.S. presidential term.

Otherwise, the loser of the bet shall pay it promptly after the election
results are announced, and the losing candidate concedes or otherwise
indicates acceptance thereof.  For reference:  The election is scheduled
for 2020-11-03.

2. If Trump himself is removed from the running before the end of
2020-11-03 due to death, incapacity, or any other reason, then this wager
is null and void.  Note:  For my part, this wager is about whether or
not Trump wins.  If Biden is removed from the running, then the wager
will remain in effect.

3. If I lose the bet, then if I have technical difficulties using the
NCLA’s Giving Block widget at the aforementioned web address through
Tor with Tor Browser, then I will donate 0.01 BTC to another charity
or other good cause (to neither my nor theymos’ direct benefit),
and provide a good-faith explanation on the forum thread referenced above.

I do not anticipate such difficulties.  I set this contingency based
only on my experience as a longtime Tor user.  Having dealt with many
surprising Tor blocks and web app failures, especially for financial
transactions, it is my general policy always to set such contingency
plans just in case.  I will NOT make any transaction without Tor for
the purposes of this bet.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

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1. Separated from the NCLA stuff—because this is the Internet, and people on the Internet get confused, and I don’t want for people to be confused.

SCAM!  It is as if Kafka had a lovechild with a typical scammer:



On 3 November, just remember that neither Trump nor Biden will change that—or this:

Dear Americans:  Please SHUT UP about your reality-TV “election” show—and don’t vote, unless/until you get a candidate on the ballot in all 50 states who will call on Congress to send up bills abolishing the Federal Reserve and its conjoined twin, the Marxist progressive income tax.

[theymos]

Code:

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA256

I agree to the charity bet under nullius's terms (*). If Donald Trump
wins the presidency, I will donate 0.01 BTC to the Foundation for
Economic Education (fee.org).

* ab0f29a30a551eda03ed7c1994339d767db89e71e24732243feb88844f8b541a
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I was shocked when Trump won in 2016, and I hope to be shocked again, though I really don't think I will be. Good luck!

neither Trump nor Biden will change that

Very true. That IRS case was after Trump had been in office for several years. Both Trump and Biden will move the US more toward authoritarianism, just with slightly different flavors and degrees.

[icopress]

I think theymos will have to make a donation.... Let me explain why this seems obvious.
Trump's Strengths: Law enforcement funding, historic economic growth, vaccine ... it gives people a sense of security.

In addition to all this, various racial groups will actively vote for Trump, (he has received the support of artists who have a serious impact on these groups). And don't forget Trump's secret admirers, (a suburban grandmother would never tell the truth if she participated in a survey).

[1 by PhillipStutts] STATE OF THE VOTERS:

For example: The Economist gives Biden a 96% to win the election. Their reasoning?

• Almost every public media poll has Biden up big, both nationally and in key electoral states. You can check out how they aggregate the polls here.
• An unprecedented voter turnout that has already occurred can only benefit Joe Biden (with the presumption that it’s a highly motivated anti-Trump vote). Here is one example.

On the other hand, Trump supporters are more confident in a victory than at any point since the pandemic began, due to a few factors:

• Universal distrust in the national media polling and a belief in new voter modeling pointing to Trump momentum in key states heading into Election Day.
• The belief in strong leadership in uncertain times will carry Trump to election victory.
• Optimism with the economic comeback and the promise of a COVID-19 vaccine.

[2 by PhillipStutts] TOP MOTIVATIONS:

Biden Voters, The top issues motivating Biden voters to get out and vote:

• Fervently Anti-Trump — A vote against Trump is more important than a vote for Biden.
• Continued fear around the coronavirus and wanting new leadership to address the pandemic differently.
• Returning decency to the White House.

Trump Voters, The top issues motivating Trump’s voters to get out and vote:

• Loyalty to Trumpism and a belief that Trump will continue to be the Molotov cocktail to the entire federal government/mainstream media apparatus.
• Belief that Trump’s record on the economy will continue to pull us out of the economic calamity.
• Belief that Trump’s leadership will keep us safe from COVID-19, China, wokeism, lawlessness, liberal policies, and biased news media.

Independent/non-affiliated swing voters that are turning out in large numbers this election are motivated by:

• This pool of Americans are voting based on what they “need” in these uncertain times vs. what they “want” to vote for (“Want” would have been the choice in the pre-coronavirus world when life was blissful and there was more “certainty” in our society).
• Safety, safety, safety — Voters are motivated by the need for safety above all else. They want certainty and want president to protect and grow the economy, keep our streets safe, and protect us from the virus (by finding a cure).
• Optimistic leadership — The “doom and gloom” messaging is over for these voters. They want to see optimism and strength from their president.

[nullius]

The tyranny machine does not stop

I urge the people of Missouri to support Senator Josh Hawley.  The irony-challenged publishing gatekeepers at Simon & Schuster have decided to punish Senator Hawley for his attention to election integrity, via their cancellation of this book, which had been scheduled for release in June 2021:

The Tyranny of Big Tech

By Josh Hawley

Missouri Senator Josh Hawley argues that big tech companies—Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple—represent the gravest threat to American liberty since the monopolies of the Gilded Age, and proposes a democratic, hopeful path forward.

No doubt, that is only the first such reprisal in store.  Missourians, Senator Hawley acted with a moral courage rarely seen in the U.S. Federal den of thieves and liars “legislature”.  Don’t let him down!

Reference number:
db4b57d9dd5779b04988bd4520de55f44f84d76fd7d594a6ea53f49bb8ce380e

[...]

1. If the election results are officially contested in any way, then the bet will be resolved by waiting to see who actually takes office for the next U.S. presidential term.

Otherwise, the loser of the bet shall pay it promptly after the election results are announced, and the losing candidate concedes or otherwise indicates acceptance thereof.

As of today, Trump effectually conceded on Twitter (a fitting end for him).  —Or at least, he “otherwise indicated acceptance” of the election results.  I have therefore sent 0.01 BTC to the NCLA in txid 40fca7f95058864b1457fb8f626fd02a97aba7f502386ad30f7ca184f5ee81c4.

I may follow up with some brief political commentary later, if time permits.

To connect the blockchain transaction to this bet, I embedded the reference code from my bet commitment in an OP_RETURN.  Unfortunately, I was experimenting live with some new code; and I inadvertently encoded the script opcodes twice.  There is therefore an extra 6a20 prepended.

I feel embarrassed to send from a non-Segwit address.  As of today, if you use a non-Segwit wallet, you look like a n00b who does not know how to choose the right wallet!  However, due to my intent to expose the blockchain data from this transaction, I decided to use an address from ChipMixer.  The address was obtained using ChipMixer voucher codes that I set aside for this potential purpose in November.  I always keep a moderate amount of money in Chip vouchers, just in case I need to do something bad for my privacy.  The money for these vouchers may have been deposited by me anytime in about the past three or four years; thus, any blockchain observer who identifies Chip inputs will not find it feasible to guess which were mine.

I have been away since mid-December, and my time for the forum is now negligible.  My apologies to those who have sent me PMs and e-mails, which I have just now found.  I will reply to you soon.

[ChipMixer]

However, due to my intent to expose the blockchain data from this transaction, I decided to use an address from ChipMixer.  The address was obtained using ChipMixer voucher codes that I set aside for this potential purpose in November.  I always keep a moderate amount of money in Chip vouchers, just in case I need to do something bad for my privacy.  The money for these vouchers may have been deposited by me anytime in about the past three or four years; thus, any blockchain observer who identifies Chip inputs will not find it feasible to guess which were mine.

There are multiple ways to use ChipMixer - it is great to see a person who understands their risks and plans how to achieve most privacy with the tool.

[theymos]

I appreciate you following through, especially when that 0.01 BTC has increased in value so much since the bet was made! The administrative state is always a problem, but IMO it's likely to be even worse in the Biden administration, so the NCLA's work will be needed; I donated to them myself last year.