2013, 2017 bubbles and 2020 bull run

[Pamadar]

The next bull run is in 2021, according to this logic. And how can bitcoin be compared to a bubble? This is incorrect.

That's right, friend, that the increase will be predicted to occur in the next year, if you see that now it is already in high prices, it is clear a blessing from an increase that was not previously predicted. but will it continue to increase until the end of the year? i feel like nothing will happen.

All still speculative, we can't be sure if what will the market bring to us.

For now, we should enjoy what we see and hope that this strong run continue to build it's barrier, as of the moment the market are red
and most of those crypto who pumped up are retracing right now, simply because bitcoin is also falling, but with institutional investors
who are now inside, this might be a temporary fall and afterwards it will pumped back and rise to a new ath.

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[mk4]

This doesn't mean that they won't sell if the market will be crashing,

Never said they wouldn't. But one thing's for sure, they're far more experienced into investing in general. Things like flash crashes are going to be more calculated and risk adjusted.

if anything, it's the retail investors who are likely to hodl forever, no matter what.

The same retail investors that panic sold at 2017-2018 back down to $3k levels when things were going down?

[Yogee]

The point is there may be some people buying bitcoin so they can have it wrapped and get rewards which could have contributed to the pump. It's possible that thousands of btc's were bought from or taken off exchanges and temporarily locked on these "interest" bearing platforms. You get what I mean?

It is a risk taking activity that I don't do. Take risk, and exchange a safe asset to take a risky one (lock and get a virtual number to get interest). People who love risk will like it but I don't.

I'm not saying you should follow their strategy. You obviously have a different risk appetite than these people I mentioned.
My response is still in relation to the argument that ethereum helped the btc pump.

Buy bitcoin, store and hold in a non-custodial wallet is safer than lock it on any platform or hedge to get interest. Use a bitcoin custodial wallet is bad. Lock your bitcoin on custodial wallet from a platform is worse.

Like I said, there are different levels of risks that investors are willing to take. Let them send it to lending platforms, store in crypto banks, exchanges, gambling platforms or any other centralized services. They'll only learn the value of being in fully in control once they suffered losses from hacking and funds locking.

[ethereumhunter]

I see 2 opinions in 2017 article that makes me hiccups.
- Mass adoption
- This isn’t 2013 anymore

Since 2017, mass adoption still going on and until now, I think the progress is good. Bitcoin can reach more people, and now, we see that many people out there are trying to invest in bitcoin. We also see that a company like Paypal also integrates its website with bitcoin to make its members' adoption start. Yes, this isn't 2013 anymore, and the adoption still happens. We will see this year or next year will be the next bull run.

[Questat]

We can never tell if there's a real mass adoption happening here, I'd say it's too early for that to happen, most of the major development has not put in place yet and I believe it's just us who are speculating and with the power of the whales, they were able to manipulate the market and let people ride. I'm afraid that panic will happen once this correction continues.

[slaman29]

The same retail investors that panic sold at 2017-2018 back down to $3k levels when things were going down?

I'm not sure I'd be calling them investors if they panic sell;) It's generally IMO the speculators and traders (with all their Bitcoins stuck on exchanges forever) who're the ones playing with BTC/USDT. Then again, all the Bitcoin congestion during rallies and crashes means there are people who decide to move Bitcoin off to make profit or cut losses. Weak hands as I understand definitely refer to retail;)

[tbterryboy]

The difference has been talked a million times here, when you are moving from 150 dollars to 1400 dollars you do not need that much money in the market, when you move from 1000 to 20k you do need a ton of money, and when you move from 10k to 20k you need less money than the 2017 run but more money than the 2013 one. Which is why I would list the awesomeness of the increases as 2017 to 2020 to 2013 personally.

However what we should also see here is that before the 2013 bull run the price was around 150 dollars or so and just 4 years later we have seen 20k and just 3 years later we are doing another x7 increase from the bottom after 2017 (3k) and to back to ATH price once again (or maybe even higher). So, things are looking good the longer it takes but we are talking about just very few years in between making huge leaps.

[thecodebear]

In 2017, people talked about 2013 bubble, said about adoption, difference.
Bitcoin’s Present Bubble Might Actually be the Beginning of Mainstream Adoption

In 2020, peopled talked about 2017 bubble, said it is different. Crypto Long & Short: 4 Metrics That Show How the Current Bitcoin Rally Is Different From 2017

I see 2 opinions in 2017 article that makes me hiccups.
- Mass adoption
- This isn’t 2013 anymore

The article in 2020 has 2 charts for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns in 2 years and they are interesting charts but I don't agree with the article that bitcoin has more space to run up because of the past pattern and the Ethereum rise this year. Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

The main problem with your analysis is that you are comparing 2020 to 2017/2013. In a year you should be comparing 2021 to 2017/2013. If you're gonna compare 2020 to a previous year then you should be comparing it to 2016. You're fundamentally missing basic Bitcoin market dynamics if you think 2020 is like previous boom years. 2020 is the "getting back to/near ATH" year, which is what 2016 was. 2020 is by no means a boom year, that only happens once Bitcoin launches off the previous market cycle peak.

If this was last market cycle Bitcoin would be at like $900 right now and you'd writing about in this post how Bitcoin doesn't have more room to run and how the fledging Ethereum won't contribute to Bitcoin price appreciation. Then you'd miss out on the 20x gains of the following year and the fact that ETH's ICO boom helped Bitcoin's run out immensely by bringing in many more people to the crypto market.

Also the retail frenzy HASN'T EVEN BEGUN yet in this market cycle. The recent price pump is mostly from institutional investors. Grayscale, well known Wall St billionaires, and corporations have been buying up hundreds of thousands of bitcoin the past few months while literally only about 1/100th of that amount has been newly minted BTC during that time. And these are long term investors, not newbie retail traders that are going to panic sell as soon as the price starts dropping - that may be why we only just had a short shallow correction instead of a full blown 30-40% correction this past week because long term investors have been mass buying up the market so the floor is significantly raised now as compared to just 6 months ago when the floor was like $8k/9k. Throw in a little bit of an expanded market from limited Paypal crypto service so far and you can see we are only a month into what may be a year long full-on bull run.

[MusaMohamed]

The main problem with your analysis is that you are comparing 2020 to 2017/2013. In a year you should be comparing 2021 to 2017/2013. If you're gonna compare 2020 to a previous year then you should be comparing it to 2016. You're fundamentally missing basic Bitcoin market dynamics if you think 2020 is like previous boom years. 2020 is the "getting back to/near ATH" year, which is what 2016 was. 2020 is by no means a boom year, that only happens once Bitcoin launches off the previous market cycle peak.

I understood your points and you stepped in my shoes. You should know it is not my analysis and I was shocked when people compare 2020 with 2017 and 2013 and such low quality article is published on high traffic site. It is a big joke that is misleading newbies in crypto market.

I do realize the four year cycle of the crypto market (not only for bitcoin). There are many shit altcoins and no matter how high their prices are at all time highs, they are acceptable altcoins if they can survive through at least a 1 four year cycle of the market. I don't say those survivals are good altcoins but they show their development activities, usecases and supports from community. Anyway 4 years are not short and survival through past 4 years does not give you an assurance for another survival next 4 years.

If this was last market cycle Bitcoin would be at like $900 right now and you'd writing about in this post how Bitcoin doesn't have more room to run and how the fledging Ethereum won't contribute to Bitcoin price appreciation. Then you'd miss out on the 20x gains of the following year and the fact that ETH's ICO boom helped Bitcoin's run out immensely by bringing in many more people to the crypto market.

The comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum is not mine and I emphasized my opinion that comparison is wrong. There is capital flow and it affects capital flow into Bitcoin, altcoins, Ethereum in short period and in the long term growth, Ethereum can not affect bitcoin.

Also the retail frenzy HASN'T EVEN BEGUN yet in this market cycle. The recent price pump is mostly from institutional investors. Grayscale, well known Wall St billionaires, and corporations have been buying up hundreds of thousands of bitcoin the past few months while literally only about 1/100th of that amount has been newly minted BTC during that time. And these are long term investors, not newbie retail traders that are going to panic sell as soon as the price starts dropping - that may be why we only just had a short shallow correction instead of a full blown 30-40% correction this past week because long term investors have been mass buying up the market so the floor is significantly raised now as compared to just 6 months ago when the floor was like $8k/9k. Throw in a little bit of an expanded market from limited Paypal crypto service so far and you can see we are only a month into what may be a year long full-on bull run.

I know about retail investment that is reflected in the Google Trend search chart and how it boosted bitcoin price in 2017. Grayscale and Institutional investments are discussed Bitcoin Treasuries (data is from https://bitcointreasuries.org/) and I know that. I believe the market is overheating now and pull back will appear anytime. Any pull back (14% to 30%) will be good dips to load up more bitcoin, not to shake out. Bitcoin is on bullish and parabolic phase.

Thank you for the very informative and astute post.

[judaspriest]

2020 Bullrun? what about the dump that happened earlier?
DUMP of $ 800 goes to Bitcoin and goes back to under $ 19k, then it recovers quickly, and goes back to $ 19k and above,
that is really very volatile, maybe Bitcoin is a bubble.

[OgNasty]

ETF and six figures in 2021. Don’t miss the dollar chasing dimes.

[rodskee]

A lot of things is going to happen this year. We've seen big companies and institution adapting crypto which create greater publicity and growing market. Its a different year and a lot of different people/group have come in.

yeah obviously different because in 2017 when the Bull happens and Bitcoin Hit the 20,000 ATH the market capitalization is more than 800 trillion but look at the market now,Bitcoin took $19,800 yet the market cap is just 500 trillion above.

One thing is the same, the price is still volatile but 2020 have a greater community than before. Price still is expected to crash but there is a big hope that there is new high this year.

Crashing happens by situation and i believe that if ever there comes again this is from worldwide economic problem and not just dumping like 2018.this time people here are more in trust with their coins and not just purely investing,They might sell when the value pump but will surely buy back when the value dumps.

[MusaMohamed]

yeah obviously different because in 2017 when the Bull happens and Bitcoin Hit the 20,000 ATH the market capitalization is more than 800 trillion but look at the market now,Bitcoin took $19,800 yet the market cap is just 500 trillion above.

Please don't let the marketcap distorts your minds. It is a misleading term to show the growth of crypto market that will be only correct or nearly correct if you exclude all faked pumping marketcap from shit coins or shit tokens. In bullish time, scam projects with high coin or token values and high total supplies will contribute too much to the marketcap.

If you are talking about the growth of bitcoin and bitcoin market, please look at bitcoin price, bitcoin marketcap, and bitcoin trading volume growth.

that is really very volatile, maybe Bitcoin is a bubble.

Volatile, yes. Bubble, no because bitcoin is warming up and has only still been in its very early phase of bullish market. Bitcoin has not yet jumped into its full bullish market. Any correction from now till the full bullish market will be healthy corrections. Buy healthy dips.

[bearexin]

I would say 2021 going to be even crazier. Think about it, all of this happened in the past 2-3 months right now, and we are going to be in 2021 in just one month, which means we are going to actually see a whole year of starting with huge price. If the price stands at around 18-19k range for a whole month without dropping (even without a need to go up) we are going to start a whole year with such a huge price, and unless it has a year like 2018 where it crashes and burns, we are going to see something major.

Even a 10-20% increase would yield like 3-4 thousand increase easily, that is going to be awesome because 10-20% increases are very common in crypto, even at this price it keeps happening all the time. So long story short I have to say that we are going to be either awesome in 2021 or very bad like 2018.

[STT]

institutional investors

Its still hot money that can retract, the real hard line for a rising tide in BTC has to be actual users or the population of frequently used wallets.    People will naturally hold BTC between themselves for years at a time so long as they have used it previously and intend to do so in future ( the greater the rate of exchange the higher the monetary velocity and apparently the market worth of BTC, trading imo doesnt count for that)   It might only be a small amount per person because its not speculative but literally their budget for whatever online BTC market they look at but thats the true pricing for crypto long term not the hopes and fears of whatever money managers are coming in with.   We can still go very high and its of benefit to BTC that we have wider interest but I remain apprehensive about when decide to go spend their profits and then that becomes the new trend.
   There is a froth on every wave quite noticeable and there is also quite a soft layer of buying but past that is a much stronger tide change and I know we're in the speculative forum section but its the tide I prefer to watch long term.

[Questat]

So long story short I have to say that we are going to be either awesome in 2021 or very bad like 2018.

I like that you also mentioned the possible bad side, with the current price, lots of investors have already made a decent profit as we are almost hitting a new ATH. Those who bought bitcoin at below $10,000 have already doubled their investment, so I'm thinking even if bitcoin will reach a new ATH, a correction is still likely to happen.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The events of 2013, 2017 are very different from those of now 2020, ETH has nothing to do with the bullish race of Bitcoin, that is, without Bitcoin there is no ETH and all the other ALTS, Bitcoin is the King and it is the which has a life of its own, the other cryptocurrencies do not have a life of their own because they depend on the movements of Bitcoin. There is still a need for the true bullish trend, the market for me is growing by my own effort and not because now I have to have a new ATH, I think that the ATH will be close to $ 50k, and I think that for this you may have to wait until less a few more months.

[pilosopotasyo]

 Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

Ethereum has it's own bull run and it has no contribution to Bitcoin's bull run it is to each it's own, and besides Bitcoin dominance over all the coins makes it superior and no altcoins can add or contribute to it's status, all altcoins are still under Bitcoin, if Bitcoin crash the altcoins follow.

[STT]

I'd argue all economies have some influence and there is a strong connection between ETH and BTC in that one or the other may retain some capital to buy the other.    There are some involved in ETH who buy to take part in a project there and might then buy BTC by selling ETH with any excess.   Obviously people dont just sell ETH to dollar and back only, its also by exchange to other blockchains.    Its also possible people do this when fees for BTC transfer is a higher charge.

either awesome in 2021 or very bad like 2018.

We're likely to be higher in 2021, its worth watching the Dollar index which has been weak all year since March.   A retraction of capital into strength of the dollar would suggest lower but so far thats not a normal expectation from current events.

[boltz]

I think this was just a mini bull run as the resistance right now on 20k$ is even bigger than the days before so I think the bulls run out of fuel for now and bears is slowly taking over the markets. I saw a lot of predictions lately that a dump might be a on the days/weeks. However if bitcoin pulled out a run like this kinda out of nowhere, maybe it can do it again.