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Author Topic: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets?  (Read 12695 times)
Viscore
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January 04, 2021, 03:41:19 PM
 #341

I used to rely on these odds but I noticed that the bookie is sometimes wrong, probably most of the times Grin

For that as long as the stats say otherwise I will always go against the favourite because anything can happen on game day.

And if odds were a reflection of the final results by now we would all be billionaires!!! So no ,I don't rely on the odds.

I'm sure you are sharing based on your experience, I've learn that also that betting against my favorite team sometimes makes me profitable. The thing is, bookies or bookmakers knows what people would think with the odds they offer, and therefore they will not offer an odds where bettors would give the bookies some trouble paying out the winnings, most of the time, the public or the majority of the bettors are wrong.


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January 04, 2021, 05:00:04 PM
 #342

Yes, there will be inequality for gambling we have to go through it. You need to analyze the market and find out the disadvantages of using your experience. The situation is not the same depending on the odds. You have to choose the right time. If you have a lot of money and are willing to make huge losses to win big chances you may be able to make high-risk bets with high-winning chances to satisfy yourself. Otherwise it would be wise to bet safely. At least keep the bet with a win doing so will reduce your risk and you will still have the least mathematical advantage in the house.
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January 04, 2021, 05:18:09 PM
 #343

Keep relying on odds it is like relying on a martingale strategy over the long run, eventually you will lose  Wink

I could not agree with this one, betting odds is just a multiplier of the outcome of your bet in case you win, martingale on the other hand is a bankroll management, there's no connection of this two to be honest.
Odds are specifically engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager then, win or lose, they’ll make 5-10% on the juice (or ‘vig’).
As such, it’s integral to understand that the chief function of oddsmakers isn’t to create an accurate (and probable) picture of reality—it’s to mitigate your sportsbook’s risk. Think of contemporary oddsmakers as risk management professionals, as well as expert sports predictors.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/how-bookmakers-generate-odds/
The game is made so that, at the end of the day, they end up always winning  Wink
I am referring to the fact that both the house edge and the odds engineering mechanism are designed to allow the casino to always win on the lung run. That is why they profit whether you understand it or not. Wink
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January 04, 2021, 06:11:30 PM
 #344

If you have a lot of money and are willing to make huge losses to win big chances you may be able to make high-risk bets with high-winning chances to satisfy yourself.

I sometimes do this depends on how I looked at the match.

There are instances that I feel betting on the underdog on high odds based on my analysis and self-instinct.

Knowledge of the game plays a big role here in my decision. I will not just place a bet on high odds on a random bet or sports.

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January 04, 2021, 06:49:57 PM
 #345

But that is the thing for the most part bookmakers never lose bets, the goal of a bookie is to win regardless of the outcome of the game and they do this by manipulating the odds in order to balance their books, so if one side is getting too much bets for their liking they can switch the line to make that side of that bet less attractive while making the other more attractive to incentive payers to bet on the other outcome, this is why arbitraging opportunities and value bets arise and you must always keep your eyes open for them.

The bookmakers will take the biggest winning from the gamblers, even if some gamblers can win, but they don't win the biggest money. I don't know if the bookmakers are manipulating the odds or not to balance their books, but I am sure that they don't do that. Besides that, they will not show their books that contain their profits because that is their secret. If they do that, and the members know by themselves, they will not like what the bookmakers do, and the members will not use that site to place a bet.
But the odds change, if you take the time to look at the odds of a boxing match when the casino just publish them you will see they are not the same odds as when the match is about to start, what happened? The line shifted, what that means is that over the time the market for that bet was open they were receiving too many bets on one side and automatically with their algorithms the line was changed to try to encourage people to bet on the other outcome.
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January 04, 2021, 11:44:51 PM
 #346

True, chance of losing despite it has really low odds are there. I remember I did a bet on really low odds(1.10 if I can recall) and they were lose for some reasons, so I lost all my money on that bet.
So now, I learn from my mistakes, I don't get greedy by low odds, I analyze the game carefully and as long as I'm confident, I choose even if the odds are high.
That's what I'm doing until now, I don't really bother with odds when I'm doing the bet and disregard the odds, I would prefer to make a call on bet based on my research from each individual teams rather than relying on the fluctuative odds, at least you won't feel any regret when doing that Smiley

So, the key here is not to bet more than can easily afford to lose, and if that is settled, you can go crazy all the way you want. Why not? Smiley
Reserve the bet money or make separate wallet just for this might help us to maintain the greed.

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January 04, 2021, 11:58:11 PM
 #347

In sports bets, you can't rely on odds. Odds change during the game and go up and down a lot. If you place your bet by looking only at the odds, the chances of winning do not increase in any part. Rather, better predictions can be made by following the team's performance when betting.

Odds provided by the sportsbook is a good reference for choosing a certain bet. There is no way they will just put a high or low odds on that particular bet without considering some of their factors. And it's obvious that odds will change during a game because there's live game betting and odds will be based on what's happening in a certain match.

Basically, you can't rely on odds but it's a good look.

That's where the challenge is, what bet will you take?

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January 05, 2021, 07:41:10 AM
 #348

But I guess that the win money will not be too big, but that will not be a problem if we can accept that.

Big or small, it's still a win, and that's what you need to do, win most of the time and eventually you'll win bigger.

With proper discipline in managing your bankroll, you can easily turn your $1000 even to $1 million in time, nothing is impossible in gambling as long as you have the skills. Odds, news, and anything related, you need to be aware of that so you can make a great decision.

Yes, I agree with that. No matter how big our winning, that is a win. But without having skills and luck, it is no way to turn small money into big money, and there is a risk that you need to realize. You need the other things to win in gambling, and that will need more money, effort, and time. If the risk is too big, you need to leave the gambling as soon as possible before it is too late.

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January 05, 2021, 04:18:30 PM
 #349

I check with team condition for football when looking small or bigger odds because some time giving big odds just happening bad on other team like many player injury. Most important to know with team condition before put betting odds in gambling and always check how player composition before match begin, I think almost club will announce their player line up one or two hours before.
I think it's still not enough, because I always check the team's readiness and see the odds available so any form of adjustment is always a concern for me, at least it still doesn't help me to get easy wins. So in this case I just feel, just relying on the odds and checking the team's readiness before the match is in fact still not enough, because still the luck factor will determine. Relying on odds and ignoring odds, at least I do often and with the experience I have it's still not enough because it's back about luck.

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January 06, 2021, 03:23:12 AM
 #350

But I guess that the win money will not be too big, but that will not be a problem if we can accept that.

Big or small, it's still a win, and that's what you need to do, win most of the time and eventually you'll win bigger.

With proper discipline in managing your bankroll, you can easily turn your $1000 even to $1 million in time, nothing is impossible in gambling as long as you have the skills. Odds, news, and anything related, you need to be aware of that so you can make a great decision.

Yes, I agree with that. No matter how big our winning, that is a win. But without having skills and luck, it is no way to turn small money into big money, and there is a risk that you need to realize. You need the other things to win in gambling, and that will need more money, effort, and time. If the risk is too big, you need to leave the gambling as soon as possible before it is too late.

It's been mentioned before and it will always have that impact with your gambling activity,
having a good knowledge and together with a huge luck behind you.

The chance on winning big is really possible, but you also need to consider the risk always be there when you take your call inside gambling.

Though sometimes even you are comfortable with your bet, shit still happened and make
your call to the other side.

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January 06, 2021, 08:36:42 AM
 #351

It's been mentioned before and it will always have that impact with your gambling activity, having a good knowledge and together with a huge luck behind you.

The chance on winning big is really possible, but you also need to consider the risk always be there when you take your call inside gambling.

Though sometimes even you are comfortable with your bet, shit still happened and make your call to the other side.

I wonder what people do when they know about the risk? But I think they will not think too far about the risk, but to continue playing gambling. If people can think more about the chance to win on gambling is not too big, they will not try to use more money to gamble, and they will know when the odds will not always give them a good result.

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January 06, 2021, 08:59:56 AM
 #352

In sports bets, you can't rely on odds. Odds change during the game and go up and down a lot. If you place your bet by looking only at the odds, the chances of winning do not increase in any part. Rather, better predictions can be made by following the team's performance when betting.

I wonder if the changes in odds reflect on the odds used by sites...Or better still , do betting site odd changes during matches, or are they dynamic as you described?
Well, I don't really think it's a good idea to completely rely on the given odds. Better to understand how things works and do your own research. Factors like experience, weather, environment, diet, emotional issues, health, training facilities, coaches, technical know-how, etc can affect Team performances.


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January 06, 2021, 09:51:39 AM
 #353

~
So, the key here is not to bet more than can easily afford to lose, and if that is settled, you can go crazy all the way you want. Why not? Smiley
Reserve the bet money or make separate wallet just for this might help us to maintain the greed.

Those measures will hardly help if you can't control yourself. First of all, you should know your daily limit, and then never go over it, no matter how much money you have on your balance. If that's problematic for you, you should change the way your brain is wired, probably with some professional help, and only after that you can start betting.

~And it's obvious that odds will change during a game because there's live game betting and odds will be based on what's happening in a certain match.
~

Betting on the events "In-play" is one of my fav thing to do. The odds are changing quickly, and you can make a good bet if you do it in the right time.  Wink

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January 06, 2021, 11:51:09 AM
 #354

~And it's obvious that odds will change during a game because there's live game betting and odds will be based on what's happening in a certain match.
~

Betting on the events "In-play" is one of my fav thing to do. The odds are changing quickly, and you can make a good bet if you do it in the right time.  Wink

And most especially if you are watching the game, in play betting is quite very attractive for people who have a lot of time to focus on the games they are betting, and for me, I've done that sometimes and the result is positive per my observation.

 
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January 06, 2021, 12:10:43 PM
 #355

~And it's obvious that odds will change during a game because there's live game betting and odds will be based on what's happening in a certain match.
~

Betting on the events "In-play" is one of my fav thing to do. The odds are changing quickly, and you can make a good bet if you do it in the right time.  Wink

And most especially if you are watching the game, in play betting is quite very attractive for people who have a lot of time to focus on the games they are betting, and for me, I've done that sometimes and the result is positive per my observation.

Watching the game while doing in-play best has the best entertainment value. Especially with soccer when the lower ranked team scores first and then betting on the higher ranked team could get quick interesting sometimes. The odds will be much better at that moment.



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January 06, 2021, 12:30:18 PM
 #356

~And it's obvious that odds will change during a game because there's live game betting and odds will be based on what's happening in a certain match.
~

Betting on the events "In-play" is one of my fav thing to do. The odds are changing quickly, and you can make a good bet if you do it in the right time.  Wink

And most especially if you are watching the game, in play betting is quite very attractive for people who have a lot of time to focus on the games they are betting, and for me, I've done that sometimes and the result is positive per my observation.

Watching the game while doing in-play best has the best entertainment value. Especially with soccer when the lower ranked team scores first and then betting on the higher ranked team could get quick interesting sometimes. The odds will be much better at that moment.

You enjoyed the game because you know the game you are watching, and using your intelligence in the certain game, you'll be able to spot an opportunity to bet where you think you'll likely to win, as long as you don't bet on emotion, everything is good, live betting is always idea.

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January 06, 2021, 12:33:01 PM
 #357

If you have a lot of money and are willing to make huge losses to win big chances you may be able to make high-risk bets with high-winning chances to satisfy yourself.

I sometimes do this depends on how I looked at the match.

There are instances that I feel betting on the underdog on high odds based on my analysis and self-instinct.
because sometimes the winning is very tempting that we can't ignore taking the underdog lol.
Quote
Knowledge of the game plays a big role here in my decision. I will not just place a bet on high odds on a random bet or sports.
Well that would be applicable Majority of the time ,But admit it that sometimes it is the offer that made our decision change.

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January 06, 2021, 12:35:07 PM
 #358

But right now I never like for betting with team football without know and never watch and keep focus with europe team like english primer league or serie A, some time I get position with Bundesliga team just with know team and have good record before.
It is a protocol if you want to win with your bet. You need to get at least the basic background of the teams that are about to play.

Without such, you're playing a YOLO. That is the reason why you're doing it because you want to make sure that you're putting the bet on the right team which you think gonna win.

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January 06, 2021, 12:44:27 PM
 #359

But right now I never like for betting with team football without know and never watch and keep focus with europe team like english primer league or serie A, some time I get position with Bundesliga team just with know team and have good record before.
It is a protocol if you want to win with your bet. You need to get at least the basic background of the teams that are about to play.
And even it's an obligation to have knowledge about the team/player before putting a bet, unless you believe in Luck and you are a risk taker in gambling.
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Without such, you're playing a YOLO. That is the reason why you're doing it because you want to make sure that you're putting the bet on the right team which you think gonna win.

But Some gamblers believe that it's purely Luck and that is why the diversion comes commonly , they don't even spare more time in evaluating but just betting , of course we are far different from them because we want at least some assurances that our bets will be placed in right one .

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January 06, 2021, 10:55:19 PM
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But Some gamblers believe that it's purely Luck and that is why the diversion comes commonly , they don't even spare more time in evaluating but just betting , of course we are far different from them because we want at least some assurances that our bets will be placed in right one .

There are newbie gamblers, they are still learning, so eventually if they are not stupid, they'll learn and will improve.

We all started as newbie, and we are prone to making mistakes that time, but until now we are still here, meaning we have learn a lot and we have enjoyed gambling already. Evaluating the game comes first, knowing if you can win using your skills or the game is just purely luck based, we have to know that as its basic since it's useless to analyze if we are betting on games that is only a luck based type.

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