[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[STT]

Iam always surprised the range of countries that enter into the ESC like Azerbaijan, I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (or similar distant entries) but it doesnt matter its only singing contest.

Eligibility for potential participation in the Eurovision Song Contest requires a national broadcaster with active EBU membership that would be able to broadcast the contest via the Eurovision network.

especially considering that this song isn't English.

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

Saying that I like this entry alot, but I might be biased to its 'type':

Roxen's song for Romania: ROXEN - Amnesia - Romania 🇷🇴 It's ok I think, but nothing special in the end. Odds around 70.

The Belgium entry sounds good to me, I dont know its got the killer line to catch votes maybe too close to average or generic.   Yea I got bored at the end sadly.

Finland nope, its ok I guess but nothing special even in its music section and I dont believe it'll get appeal overall tbh      The Spanish song is more likely the type to get a more general appeal, he can sing but I dont love the song to go with this.    Eventually I will decide but not quite outstanding for those that I heard so far.

[Saint-loup]

Iam always surprised the range of countries that enter into the ESC like Azerbaijan, I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (or similar distant entries) but it doesnt matter its only singing contest.

Eligibility for potential participation in the Eurovision Song Contest requires a national broadcaster with active EBU membership that would be able to broadcast the contest via the Eurovision network.

That's because Azerbaijan is a member of the Council of Europe along with other caucasian countries like Armenia and Georgia.
But Azerbaijan is also a member of the EaP (Eastern Partnership) of the European Union with Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and of the GUAM organization with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

[tyKiwanuka]

(...) I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (...)

The EBU and Europe are two different things, so you just have to be EBU member to be eligible to participate All those north african countries are also part of the EBU and could participate, but only Morocco did so in the past. The only exception is Australia, who are guest in ESC since 2015, since there is a big ESC community down under.

It's the same as with UEFA. Israel, Kazahkstan, Azerbaijan etc. play in UEFA qualifiers, their domestic teams in UEFA Champions/Europa League. Why ? Because the UEFA is a different organization than "Europe".

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

I normally don't do as well, but this is all from a betting perspective, because english songs do better in ESC in general, so higher chance of winning. English is understood by the most people overall and people are used to hear english music. If it was just about singing in the language the most people are native in (in EBU), then your song should be in german (but I wouldn't recommend that).

BTW, Russia also selected what they will send to Eurovision this year:
https://youtu.be/dBgm_d61K7E

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

[BitcoinAccepted]

Usually the bookmakers are always right with the odds for the winner.

As far as I remember, the last years always the top favorite won.

Last time we had the winner, was the year the Dutch guy won? He was also top spot favorite before the event started.

[LTU_btc]

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

Seems that your video was taken off too. I don't know why, but it's still not available on Youtube on official channel. So far there is only video on Russian TV website https://www.1tv.ru/-/ijzwl
Belarus also selected participants for 2021 contest:
https://youtu.be/_RMHKaIsac0
Their song is in Russian too and judging from comments and dislikes on Youtube, it's highly unliked by Belarus people. Shortly without going deep into details, mainly because of politics and they weren't able to select participant themselves. Well, I also can't said something good about song.

[Saint-loup]

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

Seems that your video was taken off too. I don't know why, but it's still not available on Youtube on official channel. So far there is only video on Russian TV website https://www.1tv.ru/-/ijzwl
Belarus also selected participants for 2021 contest:
https://youtu.be/_RMHKaIsac0
Their song is in Russian too and judging from comments and dislikes on Youtube, it's highly unliked by Belarus people. Shortly without going deep into details, mainly because of politics and they weren't able to select participant themselves. Well, I also can't said something good about song.

I don't speak russian but in the Youtube comments people are saying that's a propaganda song for the belarusian government  

Go_A(Ukraine) have revamped their song, I don't like it very much, I prefer their first version.

The EBU and Europe are two different things, so you just have to be EBU member to be eligible to participate

Yes but if you are a member of the Council of Europe you're eligible to the EBU membership.

Membership is for broadcasting organizations whose countries are within the European Broadcasting Area, as defined by the International Telecommunication Union, or are members of the Council of Europe.

https://www.ebu.ch/about/members

[tyKiwanuka]

I have edited the table again and put all the "correct" Youtube links from ESC channel in, where available.

Russia now has an official video, but still doesn't get any better for me

Belarus has also announced their entry: Galasy ZMesta - Ya Nauchu Tebya (I'll Teach You) - Belarus 🇧🇾. Pretty unusual entry for Belarus, who had more pop/techno-ish/whatever songs in the past. I really like the song this year, but Belarus is generally not doing that good in ESC unfortunately.

We will get some more songs/videos today and in the upcoming days and then the list should be complete more or less. Just Azerbaijan and Malta are a bit late^^


Source: https://eurovision.tv/calendar

[Saint-loup]

I have edited the table again and put all the "correct" Youtube links from ESC channel in, where available.

Russia now has an official video, but still doesn't get any better for me

Belarus has also announced their entry: Galasy ZMesta - Ya Nauchu Tebya (I'll Teach You) - Belarus 🇧🇾. Pretty unusual entry for Belarus, who had more pop/techno-ish/whatever songs in the past. I really like the song this year, but Belarus is generally not doing that good in ESC unfortunately.

We will get some more songs/videos today and in the upcoming days and then the list should be complete more or less. Just Azerbaijan and Malta are a bit late^^


Source: https://eurovision.tv/calendar

Yes you didn't mention it above but the Austria entry has been released this morning, the song is not bad IMO but that's obviously a song for a strong voice and Bueno doesn't seem to have it, I doubt he will be able to reach the final.




Switzerland and Greece entries will be released in few hours this afternoon and Bulgaria's one this evening (UTC time speaking)

[TheGreatPython]

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

[Saint-loup]

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

I agree with you it can be more subjective than many other contests, but are you betting to be fair or to make money? In this kind of competitions there are fair amounts of money to make...   For example I've recently made some nice profits with the Golden Globes. Bookmakers are pretty good at assessing outcomes in this matter actually, so it means it's not at all impossible to do.

[LTU_btc]

Some more countries announced their songs, though I see that @tyKiwanuka already added most of it to OP
Latvia - Samanta Tina with song The Moon is Rising: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBaCWHSyDzo
I'm a bit biased to rate our neighbours song, but I like it more than their lat year song. Though, it will be difficult to reach final.

Vasil - Here I Stand - North Macedonia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbXczPgRI7Y
Strong voice, but not ESC material, I think.

RAFAŁ - The Ride - Poland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsWwLWaZBq8
Not bad song, it can reach final, but seems that people in Poland are unhappy about their national TV choice for contest.

James Newman - Embers - United Kingdom https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMDGTsa_Qq0
Really decent song, UK definitely can reach final, what happensd not very often.

Gjon's Tears - Tout l’Univers - Switzerland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpM6o6UiBIw
Main favorite to win according to bookmakers so far. I can say that's just not my kind of song.
Only few songs are yet to be announced remaining.
Also, Belarus will have to pick new song. EBU didn't accepted their song because of political context:
https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1370023010325831688?

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

You have good point. But I think Eurovisio betting isn't about subjective opinion, you like song or no. It's about what majority of people like, and we are talking about millions of people. And usually, odds reflect these things well.
Even some sports are about subjective opinion of people, where few referees in stadium decide everything. Let's take figure skating, gymnastics, skateboarding and etc

[tyKiwanuka]

Thanks @LTU_btc. Yes, I filled the table up yesterday, but was too lazy to make a post

And I agree with your opinion about the latest entries; don't like any of them very much, but Switzerland is indeed top fav now, which amazes me. Only thing I disagree is with UK reaching the final or not - they are already in final

Here are the main favourites:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

~snip~

~snip~

I think the ESC is betable just like any other sports/event, you just have to adjust your style and know your stuff (which I don't claim to do). There are some patterns and dynamics you can witness year after year. For example if Russia and Belgium had the identical, very good, entries, then Russia would finish better than Belgium, because Russia will get more "friendly" points from all those Ex-USSR countries. And this is not some fraud, but also about music culture. In the different parts of Europe/EBU, different music is popular. So someone from Belarus is more likely to enjoy the russian entry than someone from Portugal. Same goes for the Ex-Yugoslavian countries, the Scandinavian countries etc., they seem to stick together, but it's more about culture. So a good song from a country with lots of "friends" and diaspora is very likely to contest for the win.

The bigger countries like Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy generally have a bit harder time at ESC, because people like underdogs. They rather give their vote to some smaller country, that is not that often in the spotlight and I think it's fine.

It's not all about the peoples opinion, because there were juries introduced some years ago to make the competition a bit fairer. Now the juries are a bit biased as well, because it's just normal that the croatian jury will like some folk-ish song from Serbia better than some pop song from Iceland - the cultural thing again.

Then of course you always have countries exchanging points for various reasons, but that is no secret anymore. Cyprus/Greece, Romania/Spain, Finland/Hungary etc.

And last but not least, if you are an expert in music, you can very well judge, which song is good/well produced/well sung. And if you are really really good, you might be even able to anticipate which song catches the masses, without being a masterpiece from a technical point of view.

All in all, you can make good money with the ESC, though I wouldn't recommend to put huge stakes. For me it's always fun to bet on it and when the votings are announced country by country it gets very exciting and the markets (at Betfair) go crazy. But I am no music expert and seem to have a weird taste, so I am not expecting to make a lot of money with this

[Saint-loup]

Azerbaijan and Georgia's entries have been released today.
That's not bad songs IMO but that's not game changer songs either.
"You" from Tornike Kipiani is a love song, sad and slow




and Mata Hari from Efendi is a very similar entry as last year, it's almost the same song to be honest
 


Only Malta and the new entry of Belarus are missing now.

[tyKiwanuka]

Only Malta and the new entry of Belarus are missing now.

Yep, even the Eurovision YT channel has added nearly all official videos now, just Italy is missing apart from those two.
There are some entries with loads of clicks already: SRB 3.9mln, Croatia 2mln, even Moldova has nearly 1mln already - all more than the odds favourites. But it's just a very small indicator

I am a bit disappointed with the swedish entry, although it's probably the right choice, if you want to win the ESC. I was keeping my fingers crossed for Clara Klingenström, for me the this was the best song in Melodifestivalen.

Not convinced by AZE/GEO as well. Their odds are 55/350+ respectively, so won't make a lot of noise.
Switzerland is only 3.7 now, followed by Bulgaria with around 8. Then France, Italy, Sweden come next all around 11.

[Saint-loup]

I am a bit disappointed with the swedish entry, although it's probably the right choice, if you want to win the ESC. I was keeping my fingers crossed for Clara Klingenström, for me the this was the best song in Melodifestivalen.

Thank you for the sharing, well I wouldn't say she could win ESC2021 with that but I find her way better than Tusse and her Voice(s)   I wonder who are voting at Melodifestivalen?

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

[TopTort777]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

[LTU_btc]

Few words about latest released songs:
Georgia - as I saw in comments on Youtube - not everyone's cup of tea.
Azerbaijan - yeah, almost same as last year. Probably they will reach final, but I liked last year song more.
Malta - strong contender to win. Not bad.
Sweden - I expected something more from them. Not bad, but sounds like very typical Eurovision song

For example if Russia and Belgium had the identical, very good, entries, then Russia would finish better than Belgium, because Russia will get more "friendly" points from all those Ex-USSR countries. And this is not some fraud, but also about music culture.

You said it very well, except this one. Things are more complicated here . Usually Baltic states and Ukraine don't gives many points to Russia, also Russia rarely votes for these countries. Usually Russia get most points from Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia. While often we exchange points with our neighbours, Ukraine and Georgia also involved in this thing too. Politics and relationship between countries play big role here

[TheNineClub]

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

I normally don't do as well, but this is all from a betting perspective, because english songs do better in ESC in general, so higher chance of winning. English is understood by the most people overall and people are used to hear english music. If it was just about singing in the language the most people are native in (in EBU), then your song should be in german (but I wouldn't recommend that).

English has been definitely used a lot in the contest but is not among the majority when it comes to winners. These are the percentages up to 2020: 46,3% English, 20,9% French, 32,8% Other.
The problem does arise when you have songs that mix languages when one of those is in English. Then it becomes hard to track what led to the good placement of the song. Here is a good article on that subject with those percentages mentioned above: https://eurovision.tv/story/only-songs-performed-in-english-do-well

[Saint-loup]

You said it very well, except this one. Things are more complicated here . Usually Baltic states and Ukraine don't gives many points to Russia, also Russia rarely votes for these countries. Usually Russia get most points from Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia. While often we exchange points with our neighbours, Ukraine and Georgia also involved in this thing too. Politics and relationship between countries play big role here

You're certainly right but I think this year Russia won't get many points from its allies, because Moscow authorities seem to not support the song.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/18/moscow-to-probe-russian-woman-eurovision-entry-for-illegal-lyrics-a73291
AFAIK there have been controversies about Manizha because she's not fully russian but tajik and now the lyrics of her song are attacked.
I think it's quite unfair because she's very courageous to rap in russian while Russia didn't submit an entry in russian since more than a decade.
Finally I like her song, and I like her energy, I'll certainly vote for her.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7J4lAGeFKo

[FatFork]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

Damn, girl, what's in those pills? 

I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed this. I think she's so good that people will vote for her, not the song. Much like Israeli singer Netta won the competition with her song "Toy".
As for the live performance, I don't think there will be any problems. She won the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest, the Maltese version of The X Factor, and also, she participated in the eleventh series of Britain's Got Talent and finished in 6th place.^source